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Actually, i would really like to see how this night turns out before going hunting for the remaining scum. The result of the Midnight/Balt11t interaction is pretty important towards everything we do from here.
I don't think anyone at this point disagrees with a zelblade lynch. We should spent some time of day 3 very carefully analysing everything to make sure that we don't make a mistake here (We have got the time), but as i pointed out before, i don't think we do. However, if someone has a major complaint against that or wants to put forth another, better candidate, now would be a good time to do so.
If everything turns out as expected and both zelblade and balt11t are scum, my prime subjects for the forth one would be Bromancipate, Chocolate and maybe Adam4167. But i must say that i have not rigorously analysed this and this conclusion is mostly from my memory.
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so im not on my computer im on my phone, so i wont write a giant write up, the attacks made on me seemd like they were organized, im pretty sure there seemed to be some team work going on between zelblade and zarepath,
their attacks seem like a giant smoke screen because they accuse me of using logic that other players were using as well, and this did make me very frustrated
i also would like to state that im sure zarepaths attacks on me would confirm my innocence, since inwas suspicious of him since day 1, so me bussing him doesnt seem very viable
i am reading all the posts, just to let yiu all know
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also i dont think ill die during thr night, if i die it would only serve to further expose the people who are attackig me, please note those who have been morr agressive towards me are thise who have since recieved anlot of attention as being suspicious from other players
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You won't die. There are already firmly established town players that mafia would rather hit. Hitting suspicious people just narrows our options. They'll keep you alive because you "absorb" suspicion.
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On January 30 2012 17:37 Simberto wrote:
Well, no. According to the rules, the mafia can choose their godfather day1, and i feel that if they had one, they would have chosen zarepath because he was very much in the spotlight, and especially with the attacks at the end of day1, i see zarepath as being one of the most likely persons to be rolechecked. Thus, if mafia has a godfather, there is a high probability that they would have chosen zarepath for that job. Anyways it is only something that a possible detective needs to worry about at the moment. Still being suspicious of town checks does sound like a good idea though, you are correct about that.
You are falling into WIFOM again sl0osh. This is getting to be a habit. We have no way of knowing what the mafia's choice for godfather would be since we don't know who all of the mafia are. Just because being a godfather would have fit with zarepath's play does not mean that he was the most likely choice. In fact, since the mafia had the entire first day before they would have had to make a decision on who to be godfather, it is easily as likely that he would not have been chosen godfather after suspicion was thrown on him. But even these musings are unprovable. I'm just pointing out that you are ignoring possibilities.
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EBWOP: whoops, that was Simberto, not sl0osh. Sorry sl0osh.
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Alright I am back guys. I am catching up on what you guys said overnight. I have not yet been able to confer with Jitsu about his read on his zelblade, which apparently was heavily scum.
I don't agree, I think zelblade is town and just has no credibility.
He obviously opposed random lynching and then makes a nothing post about mafia KP. Sl0osh jumps on him for this and for saying "to town" which is not a case in my mind. I assumed at this point sl0osh was just presuring zelblade. Zelblade straight up explains his motivations. DYH points out that he hasn't provided his reads when in the spotlight but instead apologised. Well he explains this as his first game and then what does he do, he targets SS.
He puts together a read and pushes it. Just like he was asked to do. Poor guy, he then gets blamed for deflecting attention from himself by doing exactly what he was asked to do.
I don't know about Zelblade. Everything he has written has seemed geniune to me. Newb and scared of voicing his opinions sure, but when asked to provide his thoughts he did. Now people are attacking him for it. If you want a comparison, in Newbie II CatsnHats was labelled scum the whole game for exactly this behaviour. I was the only one then to stand up for him. Well he was town in the end and he was actively contributing by the final day.
So with this in mind I will withold my judgement of Zelblade until I can speak with Jitsu and we can agree on our reads. It is in the spirit of transparency that I post my thoughts before consulting him.
/Probulous
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I think we need to do an inventory of mafia and town reads similar to what happened last night. Everyone should be compile their lists for early tomorrow. To establish a clearer understanding of what sides are being taken I think this will be very useful. So post your townie/mafia so that I can gather together my next big case. A few of you have already done something similar to this, like Bromancipate. However, I would like SacredSystem, Chocolate, Adam, MidnightGladius, pretty much everyone (including me) to post their town/mafia reads concisely early tomorrow so we can start the day off with as much information as possible about the state of the game.
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On January 30 2012 16:24 Simberto wrote:
Ok. With the information that Zarepath is mafia, i don't think we should lynch either SacredSystem or CosmosXAM too soon, seeing as CosmosXAM was brought up as an alternative to FakePromise on day 1, which would be a pretty good thing to do to both make yourself look town by contributing original ideas, and have a lynch debate where both targets are town, which is an ideal situation for mafia to be in since they can easily honestly contribute (this might be an elaborate ruse, but i don't think so, it just feels like it would be pretty risky if Cosmos is mafia)
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia.
Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case.
Alright, there seems to be some suspicion on me which is fine. I would encourage people to read my filter (it's short) and let me know what you think. I will get to sl0osh in a moment.
Sim this part of your post is a little weird to me. That first paragrpah is WIFOM with no conclusion. You say we shouldn't lynch Cosmos because you don't think that we could spot a mafia on Day 1? Explain.
SacredSystems alignment does not hang out zelblade's flip. I have made my feelings about zelblade clear and the same for SS. But just because zelblade targeted SS does not mean they are on opposite teams. Again in Newbie II mafia used exactly this tactic so that people would make the jump you just made. I repeat the flip of zelblade does not tell you wether SS is scum or not.
I believe he is based on his posting. But I don't think zelblade is scum. So if we do go ahead and lynch zelblade and he flips town, well that makes SS look bad in your eyes, which is fine with me. But don't drop suspicion of SS if zelblade turns out to be scum.
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EBWOP:
That was from me
/Probulous
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On January 31 2012 00:39 slOosh wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote:Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town- MG – claimed Vig so we will see
- sl0osh – Should be obvious but I can post analysis if required
- Adam4167 – Has been aggressive and rightly called out Simberto for some illogical inconsistencies. He was the only one pushing a different lynch than zarepath which may initially seem mafia-driven except that it was clear zarepath was going to die anyway. He wasn’t sure and stuck to his guns. He played the same way in the first Newbie game and I see nothing to suggest he is mafia
Now to the important stuff SCUMSacredSystemBefore I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with Show nested quote + i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing
also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating Show nested quote + i advised against making non conclusive accusations
accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me
even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town
and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linkyHow is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Show nested quote + and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise
you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post Show nested quote + if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town
and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDRSacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem/Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this?
One that you make when you are reading a thread for the first time. DYH is town because no-one claimed a counter hit. His posting has been pretty good but in my reading of the thread he didn't jump out at me as clearly town or scum. Same for Cosmos. I was looking for scum (I am still am) hence my very short bit about who is town. You are right that I missed him but how does that make me scum? I am not pushing for his lynch, or casting doubt on him. I just straight up missed him 
2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch.
zarepath - 11
DoYouHas
CosmosXAM
slOosh
SacredSystem
MidnightGladius
zelblade
Chocolate
Bromancipate
Simberto
Adam4167
balt11t
On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion.
On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks.
I guess Jitsu can explain this. I admit it looks bad but this is what happens when we you don't present and push our case. Hence my case on SS. I want him lynched. I will no longer allow the brotherhood to be smeared by weak voting.
3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch.
Explained
4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem.
Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended.
This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th.
(This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this).
This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points.
I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here.
Well I disagree that zelblade is mafia but it seems I am in the minority here. I find it highly ironic that he gets painted red for pushing an SS lynch when he was called out originally for not presenting his reads. Besides as I explained to Sim just because two people are having an argument does not mean that they are on opposite teams. Zel and SS could be both mafia or both town (not likely) or one town and one mafia (more likely).
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On January 31 2012 01:51 slOosh wrote:
(Please don't misconstrue that last line as confirmation bias. I don't think he is scum, but I do think he is worth looking into)
Further general readings:
I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more.
Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot.
How does this not explain zelblade's actions?
I'll take a piece from the analysis: Show nested quote +How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement.
So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone.
Show nested quote + Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell. I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved.
Why do you give him a break for being a noob but not zelblade? Hell zelblade straight up said he was newb and tried to apologise for it and you used that against him. As you say this is a newbie game so you must expect people to make mistakes like that but for me Zelblade is pushing a case when asked to. SS was jumping around the place without actually trying to convince anyone to follow him. His actions say "Cast a bit of doubt here, throw some suspicion there. We can always come back and use it later."
Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions. Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence.
Gah, he is not transparent. He is simply testing the waters. He never mentioned Chocolate until Chocolate mentioned him. Then suddenly Chocolate is mafia? No thinking about it, no analysis, no real reasoning, just a straight up OMGUS. Again, he doesn't have to defend himself from this. He isn't presenting a case. I don't see why you would give him the benefit of the doubt and no-one else.
Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain.
Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going.
I am not trying to be argumentative. I want to understand why you are giving SS such lee way?
/Probulous
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On January 28 2012 12:13 Simberto wrote:
Now, just in case that you are not sure how to react to this, since mafia already know whom they hit on, it would be really useful for us to know that too.
Since both the medic and the target get notified on a safed hit, the best option is to have the targeted person say that they were safed. If you are a veteran and got safed by your veteran powers, ALSO state that you were safed by a medic, i think we gain more from mafia not knowing whether a medic exists than we would gain from knowing for ourselves. On January 28 2012 14:31 zelblade wrote:
I am in the middle of school during the deadline, and as such cannot post close to it unlike you guys. As for not posting throughout the night, some crap came up and I couldnt find the time to catch up with the thread. Will be alot more active from now on.
Catching up on the thread now, will post thoughts in a bit.
Also I believe that since there was no kill last night, the person who got hit (protected by a medic/vet power) should claim that they were shot. Mafia already know who they shot anyways, and it does help to confirm you assuming no one couter claims the shot. Since town shouldnt in any case lie about this anyway, if no one counter claims the shot, we can assume that that person is very likely town.
On January 30 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:
I think his team did abandon him.
And I think this based off my reads on who I think the other mafia players are - I believe that they lack enough credibility or presence to be able to convince people off a very strong analysis.
So most likely mafia are doing their best to blend in with the zarepath lynch as much as possible and starting at night to push forth their own agenda. Mafia would not want to be the few people who did not vote Zarepath as they would receive the spotlight and so they fear this (towns people don't mind since they can justify themselves and are clear with their intentions. I think you unafraid to keep your vote on SS is an example of this).
If anything I would be surprised if there weren't 2, even more so if there weren't 3 mafia voting for Zarepath. On January 30 2012 13:12 zelblade wrote:
Nice lynch :D
Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. Suggest we take a hard look at the lurkers for the next lynch.
As stated earlier I need to go now and will be away from the thread for quite a while.
Stuff like this makes me continue to think Zelblade is mafia. My leeway on SS is based upon my belief that Zelblade is indeed mafia (along with balt11t and Zarepath) and via their interactions with SS I don't see at all how SS could be mafia in that situation.
On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote:
So why push Fake first up? Why not zarepath? He was the one who proposed the idea. I don't like how he just happened to choose the townie of the two with reasoning that could explain a vote for the mafia. Especially that the mafia guy was the one who suggested random lynching. He doesn't even come straight out and say it. He never said "I am voting for Fakepromise because he supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate." It is one piece in the puzzle but it sets the tone.
You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
On January 31 2012 08:33 Bromancipate wrote:Show nested quote +Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain. Fourth. He pushed the lynch of Fakepromise because he was in support of an idea that Zarepath presented. Why did he not vote Zarepath first? He votes show that he chose a townie over a mafia when he had the exact same reason for voting for either of them. He only voted Zarepath when the wagon got going. /Probulous I cannot answer what motives he had, nor can anyone but him. He didn't choose a townie over mafia. He chose someone suspicious over someone else suspicious. With day 2 my point is that he voted before the wagon got going.
I'm not defending his actions, but I doubt his mafia alignment based on (what I think of) Zelblade's.
If Zelblade flips town I would totally go for SS. I honestly thought he was mafia during night 1 when I pushed for town/mafia reads and he totally flipped out and started verbally flailing at Chocolate and doing all those things you pointed out. However my read on Zelblade as mafia is firm and therefore, I am treating SS as a really reckless townie unless Zelblade flips green.
Summary:
I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise).
My read on Zelblade > My read on SacredSystem.
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Are we just waiting for night to end, withholding info so mafia can't shoot accordingly? Or are people not here?
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I've been having some computer troubles but I'm still around as much as I'm able.
After going through Bromances' filter, I find it odd that Jitsu never followed this up:
On January 28 2012 09:11 Bromancipate wrote:
RE: MG
Beyond that, I think you're just upset that I called you out and put you in the spotlight.
~J
If you thought he was uncomfortable being in the spotlight, wouldn't you push him further to get a better read on him? Just leaving this alone feels like you didn't want to step on toes.. the Jitsu ive seen isn't afraid to step on toes.
At this point I think Zelblade looks pretty bad for being the only person to jump on my SacredSystem case on day 2 and then abandon it when it looked hopeless for Zarepath.
Balt11t also looks pretty bad, first a ninja-bandwagon vote on day 1, then a stealth vote within an hour of the deadline on day 2. If hes town, hes not doing a very good job of showing it.
And for the 3rd scum, id be looking at Chocolate or Bromancipate.
Simberto has gone a little quiet in the last 48 hours compared to day 1, which is odd.
Zarepath attacking CosmosXAM on day 1 and trying to push him as an alternative lynch gives him some credibility (yes yes i know, not proven townie or anything)
I think SlOosh has done enough to quell any initial paranoia I had towards him.
DoYouHas sponging last nights shot has him off my radar for now.
SacredSystem... well i have mixed feelings here. It doesn't fit the puzzle for him to be scum, he didn't react as I expected a mafia might to my tunneling, hence why I took my foot off the pedal.
From here, I say we flip Zelblade, followed by Balt11t if he doesn't have a run-in with the vigilante-fairy tonight.
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I am giving leeway to SS based on my belief that Zelblade is mafia. It is conditional leeway. Hypothetically if there was room for another mafia member on the team I would totally agree with you and move to lynch SS. However because there are only 4 and I cannot see how mafia team could be Zarepath, Zelblade, balt11t and SS, I am inclined to believe SS is just a confusing, anti-town townie (much like FakePromise).
I don't really like this. It seems pretty risky to let bad/scummy play go unpunished just because you don't think these two could both be mafia. Is it unlikely that they are both mafia? Yes. Is it possible? Who knows. I just think these are dangerous waters, because two players are "scummy" and yet you're only letting one actually be scum, when we still have two spots left (I'm pretty convinced balt is scum. We'll see.).
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And for the 3rd scum, id be looking at Chocolate or Bromancipate.
Any reasons, or just because I haven't posted much?
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Could people please make sure the author of the quote is mentioned when you are responding to things? It is really annoying when I don't know who said what you are quoting and I have to track it down.
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Just general inactivity. I cant really get a good read on you from your filter yet.
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I agree with you on pretty much everything slOosh except
You have hindsight bias here. Zarepath defended himself saying that his plan was just a ploy to generate discussion. People believed this or at least gave him benefit of doubt. We didn't know (100% upon flip) that Zarepath was mafia till day 2. On day 1, no one vocally suspected him until me, then a few others.
If you look on page 10 I was actually the first to suggest zarepath, you made your point on page 11, not trying to say anything I just wouldn't like to be forgotten about that.
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EPT
