EPTTo be optimistic, perhaps the 9:4: innocent:mafia setup would reduce the probability of a roleblocker being in the game. I suppose we'll just have to see what happens.
Newbie Mini Mafia III - Page 20
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MidnightGladius
China1214 Posts
To be optimistic, perhaps the 9:4: innocent:mafia setup would reduce the probability of a roleblocker being in the game. I suppose we'll just have to see what happens. | ||
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Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town
Now to the important stuff SCUM SacredSystem Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with i was saying that we shouldnt make wild assumptions based on inconclusive logic traps, which many of you were doing also if you arnt saying anything, then dont say it He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating i advised against making non conclusive accusations accusing fakepromise seems conclusive to me even though i probably should have waited This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty and why wouldnt zarepath be suspicious of defending fakepromise you tell me why anyone would defend fakepromise Contrast this with his earlier post if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem /Probulous | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade? In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
You refers to Bromancipate / Probulous. | ||
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Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
 I just got a PM from Qatol saying that my vote doesn't count. Doesn't change the fact that I want him lynched. | ||
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Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day? If anything could you put it on Zelblade? I know some people mentioned that they don't think SacredSystem is scum. Like in the case of zarepath before, I would really like us to lynch one mafia at a time. I think we all agree zelblade is scum, and so as to avoid division and a no-lynch can we go for zelblade? In the meantime we can discuss SS since we have the time. I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily. We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you. PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade. /Probulous | ||
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Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On January 30 2012 14:38 slOosh wrote: Can you vote at night for the following day? No. It would be confusing/useless during the lynch if you pre-voted for someone to be lynched and they died during the night. Also it allows people to meet activity requirements during the night, and I don't like the idea of people being able to vote early in the night, go mia for almost 6 days (night + day + night + day), vote at the end of the day, and still be considered active enough to avoid a modkill/ban. That being said, posting about intentions to vote is fine. Just make sure you post your vote once the day starts! | ||
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Bromancipate
Oman52 Posts
I am heading home now everyone. I will try and jump back online in a few hours but I can't guarantee anything. Otherwise I will be on from about 4pm your time (I think, I am terrible with timezones). You know what to do, survive the night, lynch SacredScum. /Probulous | ||
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Burns
United States2300 Posts
next time you play mafia please make sure you have that time | ||
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Burns
United States2300 Posts
On January 30 2012 14:56 Bromancipate wrote: SacredScum. really? | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
For SacredSystem, this all hangs on zelblades scumminess. If zelblade is Scum, he is defending zarepath Day2 by deflecting attention to SacredSystem. This is quite obvious. Since there was no other real defense attempted, this furthers my doubt of him, and thus greatly reduces the probability of SacredSystem being mafia. Either way, i don't see any better target to lynch then zelblade at the moment. I might compile all doubts on him in a complete case. We need to take a deep look at who voted late and/or reluctantly onto zarepath, there is probably scum amongst them. In line with my "zelblade is scum" theory, i think that the point when zelblade was forced to vote for zarepath is the point when mafia realised that they could not safe him. This makes people after him most suspicious, the list of those is: Chocolate, Bromancipate, Simberto, Adam4167, balt11t. Now, i know that i am town. You all don't, but that should not hinder my analysis. Adam feels pretty towny to me, and balt11t is very suspicious, was suspicious before, and is in line to hopefully get shot tonight so we see how that feels. I think that both Bromancipate and Chocolate are very good targets for further investigation. Of course i am also open to investigation regarding me and will openly and transparently answer any questions you have, since i realise that my voting pattern looks pretty scummy. Sure, our forth mafia does not need to be part of that list, they could have decided to bus zarepath earlier, but i don't think that is the case. On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath. We can be pretty sure that DoYouHas is town, because if he is mafia, he is either absurdly stupid or has such an ingenious and risky scheme planned that we could probably better just lie down and die if it does not crumble on its own. So, I will vote on zelblade again tomorrow, and i hope that this time we can get him lynched. Also: WOOOOOO, dead mafia! | ||
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DoYouHas
United States1140 Posts
"On an other note, i think we can be reasonably sure that mafia does not have a godfather. If they had one, it would have been zarepath." -Simberto You cannot use my reasoning that zarepath was a godfather to speculate on the setup of the game. It is still as likely as it was before we killed zarepath. I, for one, hope the mafia do have a godfather. That would make it less likely they have a roleblocker, which is what worries me right now. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
As to the roleblocker, we will have a much better idea of that at the end of the night. It will not be 100% certain in all cases, but whether or not balt11t dies and how he flips will give us a great deal of information on this subject. The only way to 100% confirm MidnightGladius is by both balt11t and someone else dieing tonight. My hopes are that with a 4  start, mafia does not have any power roles, but that is only a hope. | ||
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Simberto
Germany11309 Posts
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zelblade
Australia901 Posts
On January 30 2012 13:35 slOosh wrote: Ehh.... Establishing that Zarepath did not attack SS. I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. Copies my post and then misdirects us to focus on lurkers (we're nailing balt11t and town presence is strong enough that we don't need lurkers to find mafia). Does exactly what I guessed. Remember to $$Vote Zelblade When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 30 2012 22:11 zelblade wrote: I wasnt trying to establish that zarepath didnt attack SS. That post was really goddammed wierd, and I couldnt understand it, and I believed that he might be confusing me and zarepath, and I just asked him to clarify.(which he did) Really dont see how clarifying about a confusing post that confused me is scummy. When i posted this post, I was in a rush to go out and didnt have time to read through the thread properly. Only skimmed through the posts after the day post before typing that before going out. I didnt actually see that you had already posted that. Clarifying a confusing post is fine. It's the manner in which you did it that is strange. I don't see how that second sentence "I am the one that attacked you, not him" is necessary. All it does is try to clear Zarepath of suspicion (from Sacred at least) And with your post that was "written in haste": Since it seems that most of us were on zarepath, I guess that the mafia probably have little to no thread presence. That's a pretty big logical jump you made there. Premise: Almost everyone voted Zarepath. Conclusion. Mafia have little to no thread presence. Its too big to be an oversight caused to due hastiness. This oversight is because you are working off already existing ideas (namely mine) and thus felt no need to explain your thinking process. Anyways I am dead set against you and you will be next up for lynch. Day 1 info was good enough for me to lynch you and this new stuff isn't clearing you at all. Remember guys $$Vote Zelblade | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 30 2012 14:30 Bromancipate wrote: Woohoo! A red lynch! Congrats guys, I wish I could have helped but my contribution for the next lynch is below. Nice Vig shot by MG there. Not surprisingly I agree with Adam that it would have been better to claim near the day break but hopefully mafia cannot roleblock you. Alright, business time. Here are my reads. Town
Now to the important stuff SCUM SacredSystem Before I begin I would like to thank Adam in particular for providing a nice case on SS. This is by no means merely a copy of that, but I feel it appropriate to give credit where it is due. SS may not be a controversial target, but he has been vocal. My biggest concern with SS is his inconsistency and contradictory style. I am trying to avoid PBPA as I find them too long to read and prone to comfirmatory bias. Here is my summary of the filter of SacredSystem. He starts off by pointing out why random lynching is a bad idea and targets both Fake and Zare for supporting the idea. Then he straight up votes Fake promise. Fine you have to choose I have no problem with that. But when Cosmos points out that he goes from general suspicion to voting after the MG vote he blasts Cosmos with He doesn’t refute what Cosmos was saying, he merely deflects it with a nice OMGUS. He doesn’t even try to explain what is wrong with what Cosmos says merely that he is making assumptions. Well, SS made the assumption that because Fake supported random lynching even with a 30% success rate he must be mafia. Balt pushes him further to explain and he asks “is fakepromise agreeing with a 30% success rate not logic enough for you”. Which is fine except that the reason SS gave was … Nothing. He was suspicious of Fake for the 30% thing but he never stated that was his reason for voting for him. Then he backtracks by stating This is daming for me. He is now taking back his reason for voting for Fakepromise. He has not explicitly stated his reasoning and when called out for it backtracks but doesn’t remove his vote. Then when zarepath (I know he was mafia but he was right) states “who's probably just a townie with bad arguments.” he flat out states that Fake IS mafia. He has provided no reasoning for his vote but is 100% certain that Fake was mafia. Why the change? Well others had started voting for Fake so he could keep pushing that wagon and get one of us lynched. Well this is all very suspicious but how does it fit with a mafia plan? Simple really, SS knew that Zarepath was mafia and knew that Fake was town. The random lynch thing was a nice way to cast suspicion on the townie proposing the idea and push for his lynch. He was being deliberately oblique and when called out for it, waves away the questions. He never actually stated his reasoning for his vote so he didn’t have to defend his logic. Then when others joined the wagon he could sit back and let MG and the rest of us push it along. But Brothers, what of Zarepath? SS made a lovely first post after the lynch. He doesn’t state anything about his decision to supply zero reasoning for lynching a townie, or to go after the other person who was supporting a random lynch, no instead he states Aside from the obvious WIFOM, huh? According to my reading Fake was mafia because he was in support of random lynching despite the odds. If that is the case why would you assume that the guy who proposed the idea is not mafia? Then he attacks zelblade for apologizing and not sufficiently proving his innocence. linky How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. His reason for Chocolate being mafia “now i think chocolate is mafia because hes labeling me as mafia and using confusing posts as his means of convincing everyone, even though he said my posts were concise, which points out a clear contridiction on chocolates logic”. No my friend, it does not. Your posts can be concise but provide no analysis, no clarity and be obvious attempts to deflect suspicion. In fact, it is probably easier if you don’t say much. Then Adam rightly calls out SS and he responds with this beauty Contrast this with his earlier post I will go on if people want me to but I am aware that this is becoming a wall of text. TLDR SacredSystem is mafia because he has been deliberately oblique and refuses to be clear about his reasons for voting for people. He has been contradictory throwing suspicion around with no analysis to back it up. When he has been called out for this he has responded with anger and not with explanation. ##Vote SacredSystem /Probulous I found a 4th mafia candidate guys!!! Notice the word candidate: I invite you guys to look at him with me. Here are some reasons why he warrants a much closer look. 1) In his town reads, DoYouHas is missing. The guy who claimed he was shot, and moved to lynch the mafia. What kind of oversight is this? 2) He is one of the late voters of Zarepath lynch. zarepath - 11 DoYouHas CosmosXAM slOosh SacredSystem MidnightGladius zelblade Chocolate Bromancipate Simberto Adam4167 balt11t On bandwagons against town, mafia want like the 2~6 voting spots. They don't want first since it puts them in spotlight and don't want to be last since it draws suspicion. On bandwagons against mafia, mafia want the spots a bit down the list. Maybe like 4~8. They don't want to take 2 or 3 since it can build momentum in the lynch, but when it is clear that they can't save him they have to get on otherwise it is too suspicious. A bit late due to caution to the hop on me thinks. 3) Votes for SacredSystem. All I have been doing is making town focus votes, and I think I was very clear that I wanted zelblade next. I would be fine if he built his analysis of Sacred and suggested we go for him after zelblade but this almost seems like an interruption / distraction from the zelblade lynch. 4) I don't think SacredSystem is the 4th mafia. Say the mafia are Zarepath, zelblade, balt11t and SacredSystem. Watch the interactions between the zelblade and SacredSystem in the thread, especially after night 1 ended. This isn't bussing. Mafia aren't going to bus their remaining members. It doesn't make sense that sacred is the 4th. (This point is assuming zelblade and balt11t are mafia, but I think everyone concurs with me on this). This was actually the trigger for me. As soon as I saw that he thought it was SacredSystem I looked around and found these points. I know there are stronger analysts out there so I'm asking you guys to help me out here. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
Further general readings: I looked into Bromancipate's analysis of SacredSystem a bit more. Looking at his actions it seems like he is a new player trying to prove his innocence and frustrated that he cannot. I'll take a piece from the analysis: How is that mafia motivated? Maybe, just maybe, he actually is new and is having trouble proving his innocence. How have you proved your innocence? By no reason voting for a townie? He did have a reason voting for a townie. It is very clear that he has problems with the 30% statement. Then he jumps on Chocolate for quietly suggesting that SS is mafia because he is being deliberately vague (ring a bell anyone?) and he attacks him for it. A townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. A mafia would deflect with a nice OMGUS. Now Chocolate’s post was weak, but the response from SS was typical mafia smokescreen. He lashes out quite passionately at Chocolate for suspecting him. Another "newbie" tell.I think I would say that a coolheaded townie would ask what was unclear and explain it. An OMGUS is not always a mafia tell, but is also natural in newbie games, especially when emotions get involved. Then he goes back to zelblade being a noob and now Chocolate is mafia. Yes he flip flops a lot, but he is very clear and transparent in his actions.Which leads me to the conclusion that he is indeed an innocent townie having difficulties and frustrations trying to prove his innocence. Also he is 4th in voting for Zarapath. You might say 'slOosh didn't you say mafia is like 4~8 or something'? The order isn't so important as the timing. He voted when it was still not clear that Zarapath would be lynched or not. Mafia would not add additional momentum on a mafia lynch wagon that is still uncertain. Along the same lines I get a town read from Cosmos. He voted for Zarepath day 1 (before my analysis) and day 2 (after getting backing of DoYouHas). Mafia don't start bandwagons against their own. Notice he is 1st to vote (on day 1) and 2nd to vote (on day 2). I feel like I'm posting a lot of info so I'll stop here and let others have their says. Remember guys, activity and discussion is always good for town (especially since there is much less mafia influence this is prime time for getting thoughts out without people trying to confuse or misdirect). TLDR: (last 3 posts) We lynching Zelblade tomorrow. We lynch any other suspects the next day. I think Sacred probably town. Same with Cosmos. Bromancipate is worth looking into as potential 4th mafia candidate. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 30 2012 14:45 Bromancipate wrote: I will take a closer look at zelblade. I am still trying to catch up on everyone's agenda here. SS just screamed mafia too me hence my case on him. I understand you wanting to consolidate lynch targets. My only caution is that this allows mafia to wagon the vote really easily. We had this in my last game where everyone (I mean everyone, including the lynch target himself) voted for Sheth. Now he turned out to be scum but the lynch gave us no info because there was no requirement to provide decent reasoning. So for now my target remains SacredScum but I will take a closer look at zelblade and come back to you. PS Jitsu is sleeping so I can't confirm what his thoughts were on zelblade. /Probulous Oh shoot my bad just re read this. It throws my #3 out the window. I forget to treat you like a hydra so I'm not sure who knows what. | ||
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