|
On January 28 2012 14:42 Adam4167 wrote:
You weren't sure if mafia knew who each other were, so how could you use one player defending another as evidence that both of them are scum?
Your evasiveness is obvious. But indulge me, who are the 4 mafia in this game?
when i asked i was clarifing
|
I was the one hit last night.
|
I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy.
+ Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia?
He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me.
Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too.
Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this :
+ Show Spoiler +
that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time
maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means.
Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack.
Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip.
Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this;
Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here
He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town.
Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him.
##vote: SacredSystem
|
On January 28 2012 15:35 DoYouHas wrote:
I was the one hit last night.
Do you think that it would be a good idea to reveal if you were a vet or protected by a medic?
|
Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.)
|
No, it would not be a good idea to reveal it. The only additional knowledge we gain by that is that a medic is in the game, vs a veteran, which is infinitely more useful for mafia to know then for us. If mafia knew it was a veteran action vs a confirmed medic, that means that they don't have to fear medics safing their target as much, while if we confirm a medic, they always know that the medic is out there. Thus, by not revealing it, we boost the efficiency of our medic if we have one, and don't lose anything if we don't.
|
I think it is time I made my real suspicions clear and defend myself against CosmosXAM's belief that zarepath and I are working together. I'll deal with them in order.
First, I went after zelblade (after sl0osh did). I have not changed my stance on him, his first posts were scummy and his absence did not help. However he has promised to be much more active today so I am at least willing to see his new posts before condemning him.
Second, I went after CosmosXAM. He has largely alleviated my suspicion of him due to better posting and most importantly, due to staunch opposition to the person I consider to be the scummiest in the game.
That person is zarepath. I am going to write an exhaustive post listing all the reasons why this is true shortly. But for right now, when we are cataloging suspicions I felt I needed to get mine out there sooner rather than later. Included in this will be my answer to Simberto's questioning of how we saw the FakePromise situation play out. I am absolutely confident that zarepath is scum, and I am reasonably confident that he is the godfather. You backed off too easily sl0osh. Your analysis wasn't wrong it just came too late in the day to swing the town. Also, some of the most incriminating posts of zarepath were his responses to your accusation. I want to present this case right, so I'm going to start writing it tonight before bed and possibly finish it when I get up.
Third, I had been leaning gradually to a scum read for SacredSystem. However, in reviewing his filter I noticed that in multiple posts he has been openly opposed to zarepath. This at the very least gives him benefit of the doubt to me.
Lastly, because I am so certain of zarepath's guilt, I think we need to take a hard look at people who both helped pull suspicion off of zarepath after sl0osh's post and bandwagoned FakePromise, regardless of their activity level.
And now to address CosmosXAM's suspicion of my collaborating with zarepath. I did not say this in my post deflecting suspicion from FakePromise to CosmosXAM, but core to my conviction that FakePromise was innocent was the premise that zarepath was guilty. I believe that zarepath spotted the trend towards a FakePromise lynch and proceeded to put himself in an all-win situation where no matter the outcome he would come off looking good. I never would have made my post 'defending' FakePromise if I had not made this connection.
|
|
|
+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy. + Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me. Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too. Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this : + Show Spoiler +
that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time
maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means. Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack. Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip. Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this; Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him. ##vote: SacredSystem
zarepath never contributed any analysis
and he constantly wanted to mislead the any analysis that was being discussed
you seem to use the term bandwagon quite loosely
i created the wagon to lynch fakepromise
and why wouldnt i?
this is like the 3rd post where i have asked you to explain why a townsmen wouldnt be suspicious of him, and none of you have yet to do so
i never supported lurkers, i attacked the guy who avoided real analysis
but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on.
first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so
and then you jump on me
you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not
yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
|
On January 28 2012 16:42 SacredSystem wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2012 15:40 zelblade wrote:I believe that SacredSystem seems scummy. + Show Spoiler +if zarepath was mafia he would have know that fakepromise was town and it would have been very easy for him to justify killing of FP, so then why not kill him? however i am most suspicious of zelblade, he has spent the vast majority of the time apologizing for his noobiness and hasnt giving a good justification as to why he isnt mafia also what does this even mean????? I think sacredsystem is mafia, or at least appears to be the most mafia right now. Definitely suspicious. The most suspicious part is that his posts are confusing- if anyone calls him out on them for a scumslip he could try to explain it away by interpreting his posts. Then again, he may just be trying to be concise with his posts, and they do generally have a good message. I'm just not sure about him. also in the rest of your post you accuse 3 ppl without actually being conclusive about anything, ie oh hes mafia because i am suspicious you entire post seems as though it has been set up to mislead people and you keep attacking me for being confusing, yet my posts havnt been confusing at all you havent contributed to any investigations you jumped on the fakepromise vote and you accuse me based off of nothing so now tell me why would you not be mafia? He starts off this post by stating that he is "most suspisous" of me. Then, he goes on to quote Chocolate, before accusing him out of nowhere, simply because Chocolate called him out for his unclear posts, and called him suspisious. This seems really wierd to me to jump out like that and call someone scum because you were attacked. He also blames him for jumping onto the fakepromise vote, when he himself, as adam has pointed out, jumped on it too. Furthermore, his next post just a couple of minutes later says this : + Show Spoiler +
that was all directed at chocolate
and since zelblade has been suspicious of chocolate this whole time
maybe he all of his apologies are just the result of him being a noob
Firstly, when have i been suspisious of chocolate at all? The only person i have stated that i am suspisious off is fakepromise, simply because before i had to go he was the only one who seemed suspisious to me. This statement doesnt make sense at all and I dont even know what it means. Next, this is a clear contradiction. Just because a new targert has jumped up, he instantly forgets about his suspisions about me and states that I might just be a noob. Going from "most suspicious" to "maybe just noob" in a couple of minutes seems really wierd to me, especially with nothing in between these minutes except that he has found a new targert to attack. Looking through the rest of his filter, we see him advocating not jumping to counclusions, while he himself does it and jumps onto fakepromise for the 30% slip. Throughout the rest of his earlier posts, most of them are spent attacking fakepromise, and look at this; Show nested quote +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation. you are bluffing how are we going to pressure lurkers if we arnt here? So stop trying to mislead the investigation, and throw us all on. wild goose chase imterogating players who arnt here He attacks zarepath for wanting to pressure the many lurkers at this point. I dont see how wanting to pressure lurkers is anti-town at all, yet SS simply jumps onto him, claiming that he is trying to mislead the investigation, being on a wild goose chase. Lurkers are bad for town, and they need to post. zarepath is trying to get them to post, yet SS seems to defend these lurkers by shooting down zarepath's post, allowing lurkers to lurk more, eventually adding more confusion for town. Overall, I believe that SacredSystem seems to be quite scummy at this point, and he is definately my strongest scum read, with him pushing fakepromise so hard, yet blaming people and calling them scummy for jumping onto a wagon that he is on - in fact, one that he strongly pushes for. His sudden out of the blue attack onto chocolate for "labeling me(SS) as mafia" definately throws on more suspision onto him. ##vote: SacredSystem zarepath never contributed any analysis and he constantly wanted to mislead the any analysis that was being discussed you seem to use the term bandwagon quite loosely i created the wagon to lynch fakepromise and why wouldnt i? this is like the 3rd post where i have asked you to explain why a townsmen wouldnt be suspicious of him, and none of you have yet to do so i never supported lurkers, i attacked the guy who avoided real analysis but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on. first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so and then you jump on me you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
You claim that zarepath never contributed any analysis. But what sort of analysis have YOU provided?
Looking through your filter, all your attacks are flimsy.
First is of course the fakepromise incident. All the analysis that you provide here is basically that he decided to agree with the 30% lynch, and that he was definately mafia due to that and that alone. You ask why a townie wouldnt be suspicious of him, and although that one statement is really scummy, you simply concluded that he was 100% mafia without giving him a chance to respond and explain his reasons as to why he believed that it was a good idea. He could have been thinking of something we havent thought of, and the fact that you jumped on him so eagerly seems like you were looking for an easy mislynch.
Next you are asked who you think is mafia. You start out the post responding to it by saying that you were suspicious of me. Thats fine, only that your reasoning was something that had already been stated many others in the thread. This seems to me that you are, once again, attacking the easy targert and trying to get another easy mislynch.
However, upon reading chocolates post, you simply jump onto him and attack him, as i have stated, out of the blue simply because he thought that you were suspicious. You think that he is mafia, but you do not provide any sort of analysis at all besides that he jumped onto a wagon you created and pushed for, and for having suspicions on you.
Also, your posts are confusing, and this is because of the way you phrase your posts. For example, I can barely understand your last paragraph in this post. If possible, can you clarify for me what you mean by this:
+ Show Spoiler +but speaking of bandwagon this appears to be the second one you have jumped on.
first you used my logic to vote on fakepromise, and then condemn me for doing so
and then you jump on me
you have done nothing to prove that would be mafia, which im not
yet claim that i am right after adam laid the ground work for you
My point is that if you want me to not think that you are scum, do more than simply push people for analysis and attacking everyone that is attacking you. Post some decent analysis on who you think is scum with reasons other than OMG he attacked me he must be scum.
|
On another note, looking through SS's filter this post of zarepath's which he quoted really jumps out to me.
On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
What i think is wierd is the "feel free to investigate me at night part". Why would he want a DT to check him, when he himself even admits that "it will be a waste of an investigation"? I dont think that town would ever request a DT to check him unless there was a high chance that he was going to be lynched the next day, as doing so would use an action which could be better used on a scummy player to try and weed out scum. Finding scum is definately more important, IMO, than confirming 1 townie.
As such, this causes me to agree with DoYouHas that perhaps zerpath is indeed the godfather fishing for DT checks, enabling himself to get the status of "confirmed town", whilst wasting a DT check at the same time.
Also the way that SS attacks zarepath makes me feel that they probably arent on the same team. I mean, if they were both mafia, why attack each other that way at that time?
I would still prefer lynching SS at this point in time, unless he starts stepping up or a better case on zarepath convinces me that he is indeed mafia.
|
Just one thing i wanted to say: DoYouHas claiming having been shot at does not make him 100% town, even without a counterclaim. It could be a mafia ploy to get someone 100% trusted by not shooting at all. I don't think that this is what happened (it sounds pretty far-fetched), but one should still keep the possibility at the back of ones head.
Anyway, will be gone for some hours, but when i am back i will take a look at the new stuff that happened more closely, and hopefully also at DoYouHases analysis of Zarepath, which i am really interested in as he is still the next best thing to a confirmed townie we have at the moment.
|
I don't feel a need to defend myself against DoYouHas' absolute certainty of my guilt until he provides some actual analysis.
I don't know that SS and zelblade are on the same side (ie, if one's mafia, I'm not convinced that the other is bussing him.)
Cosmos's posts still seem quite vague and empty.
SS did do something interesting: he asked when mafia find out who each other are. And this is after he'd already voted.
It seems odd to do an entire day of analysis and not actually know when mafia find out who the other mafia is. It seems more like a false tell or bluff -- if he doesn't know the answer to that, he surely can't be mafia, right?
But the timing of the question was very off.
For this reason, my preliminary vote is for SS
##Vote SacredSystem
|
On January 28 2012 15:45 zelblade wrote:
Does the mafia know the exact set-up? (What roles exsist, role-counts etc.)
No. The mafia know what roles the mafia have and that's it.
|
EBWOP:
Bolded my vote for clarity for people skimming the thread:
##Vote SacredSystem
|
I'm going to be much less active over weekends, as I work part-time, and there are always various shenanigans to be had. My apologies in advance.
I'll be back in the afternoon with my updated reads and suspicions.
|
I highly encourage a rereading of sl0osh's post and zarepath's responses before getting into this. That being said, let's start with this statement of zarepath's.
Zarepath's filter.
On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:
I've done nothing but further town discussion, point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath -- etc.
Let's move past zarepath's first post. All it did was paint a target on zelblade and I will get to that later. After this there is a string of 6 posts which do nothing. For the most part he is pointing out flaws in MidnightGladius' plans but the important thing here is that a large part of what we have used to establish him as an 'active' player did nothing to 'further town discussion'. Not only that, in these posts he is placing himself in the position of a provider of information, not a searcher for information.
The second part of the quoted statement, 'point towards suspicious people, contribute actual analytical defense of people that others are accusing, trying to aright the lynchpath' are all summed up in a single one of his posts. His WIFOM defense of FakePromise.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 22:00 zarepath wrote:I do NOT think that FakePromise is a mafia. Let's look at his (quite limited) post history: Show nested quote +On January 25 2012 13:50 FakePromise wrote:Poor Qatol, had such potential  4/13 = 30.7% chance of killing mafia so random lynch seems good for me If he's mafia, he runs these numbers through his head and goes, "Hey, that's great for us!" OR, he notes that I picked zelblade, and thinks to himself, "Hey, he's not a mafia, that's great for us!" So his first response is to immediately endorse the lynching of a townie... ...by suggesting that the lynching odds are good? That would be the worst, most obvious mafia move possible. And that's ALL he says. Doesn't respond at all to the point of my failed plan, which was to get information based on who likes it and who doesn't, and then use the flip to confirm one way or the other. All he likes is the percentage. AWFUL mafia play. However, saying the same thing as a townie is just as bad of a play, if not worse. Either way, let's establish that he's being careless. Let's continue. Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 12:18 FakePromise wrote:
I guess I was wrong with random lynching but from the looks of it, you guys are trying to random lynch me. Now that I think of it, if we do lose a townie, it'll be 4:8 and the next day, it can be 4:7 so town would be at a huge disadvantage. I'm kinda confused on why SacredSystem is so eager for me to die, just because I happened to be reading this forum right after zelblade posted. How does he defend his 30% endorsement? "I guess I was wrong." Then he follows that up with a complaint that people are trying to random lynch him. Also: "Now that I think of it..." as if he was just now running the numbers, which seems like an outright lie and an obvious escape route. The last part of his defense -- that he wonders why Sacred is after him because of some random timing on what he was reading(?) -- doesn't make any sense at all. It's the most scatterbrained defense imaginable. Now think about this if he's mafia. He makes a horrible, obvious first post right at the beginning of the game. There are three other mafia players who are going to PM him and say "look, that was the scummiest thing I've ever seen. You need to back off of that real carefully." They may even tell him what to say. They're sure as heck not going to let him post excuses like "just because I happened to be reading zelblade's post" or "now that I think about it..." (Disclaimer: the other mafia may be just as dense, but that's not a good assumption to make. Or Fake just read all the PMs and the thread at once, bugged out, and made an awful response.) If he IS mafia, this is the worst possible way to defend yourself of the fact -- lashing out, completely switching your stance, no explanation of your thought process, and something that doesn't even make sense at all. Either way, it's careless. But if he were mafia, I don't think he'd have a careless retraction like this, one that comes so late in the thread. It would be far earlier, with all the other mafia PMing him saying "what's going on? get over here and defend yourself, they're getting real restless and I sure as heck ain't going to defend your post." I think this post would be much better crafted defense, and would probably point out someone more suspicious than him to try to throw off the scent. Now his third and latest post: Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post. But really? Everyone is all for lynching you based on a single offhand belief that you made at the beginning with no back-up or reasoning. You don't know what you're supposed to respond to? Is that even possible? He doesn't see a need to defend himself anymore, even after his awful, scattered defense in his second post. This belies an utterly clueless view of the game. Additionally, who here has rushed to defend him (other than myself at this point)? Nobody. There are a couple of moves that could be seen as misdirections -- people voting for zelblade and Cosmon, but those votes made some basic sense. He's all alone in his defense because nobody else is on his team. (Knowingly, anyway.) He is alone in a corner, consistently clueless, and apparently sees no need to defend himself. What I'm saying is that it seems more likely to me that he is just a really awful townie. As an alternative, I suggest voting for Cosmon: Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 06:39 CosmosXAM wrote:
sorry if inactivity would lead people to this conclusion First post is an apology Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 07:04 CosmosXAM wrote:
If I had to say I would probably go with fakepromise because of how he was so quick to agree.
Also Chocolate seems mildly suspicious because of his quick jump to voting straight for me based on little information Bandwagons on the popular vote based on little information, and then also throws suspicion on Chocolate because Chocolate's voting for Cosmos on little information(?) Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 09:04 CosmosXAM wrote:I find it a bit odd your jump from On January 25 2012 14:55 SacredSystem wrote:
However, despite several conclusions that we all wish to draw, we need to wait, the mafia will all expose themselves at some point in time.
on a side note
Fakepromise agreed with him at 30% odds -_-
to straight up voting for him, I mean sure he now has two votes going for him but you said that you wanted to wait for more information and based on him only posting once and your points about him just being copy&paste what other people had said earlier and not offering any new information or opinions I find your vote to be very bandwagon-ey. And then he accuses SacredSystem of bandwagoning on Fake (even though that's exactly was Cosmos did).
The 'analytical defense' of FakePromise can be summed up in two statements. If FakePromise was mafia he would not be playing so poorly, and if FakePromise was mafia his team would not let him play so poorly. Instead he spreads this argument out, making assumption after assumption about how the mafia is operating. This confidence in how the mafia is acting this game makes me think he DOES actually know how the mafia are acting this game. And then he drops this little gem.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 13:21 FakePromise wrote:
What am I suppose to respond to? Really? As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense: seeming so confident in your innocence that nobody should have any accusations against you worth responding to. I don't see any guilt in that post.
What purpose does this statement have in a defense of FakePromise? Absolutely none. In fact he is providing evidence against his own point. He states quite clearly that FakePromise provided a defense he can only see working if he was mafia and then immediately says, "I don't see any guilt in that post." Why write this part at all? Because of the contradictory nature of this statement I looked at the wording and I believe that 'As a mafia, I suppose this is a potential defense' was a scumslip.
This is also the only time that he actually 'points towards suspicious people', (his 7th post has suspicion towards 3 people, but instead of asking them to defend themselves, he asks 2 inactives to give their opinions on those 3. So I am not counting it as 'pointing to suspicious people') which hardly warrants its position on his list of "all I have done". As for correcting the lynchpath, I will now get into my explanation of what surrounded zarepath's defense of FakePromise and FakePromise's lynching.
I think zarepath was using Simberto (possibly the most influential person day1) as a signpost for his plans. Let's look at a statement that zarepath makes a couple times after sl0osh's attack.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:48 zarepath wrote:
and risked my neck a second time according to my honest analysis even when it would've been easier to simply bandwagon on Fake if I were mafia. I've only risked myself when it would've been super easy to blend back into the quasi-lurkers
On January 27 2012 11:45 zarepath wrote:
If I were mafia, it would've looked even better for me to just climb on the FakePromise Lynching Wagon so the doubt just goes onto Simberto and everyone else. On January 27 2012 12:24 zarepath wrote:
Look, I'm not mafia. I don't know why mafia would behave the way I've behaved this entire first day.
He states that if he was mafia the best thing he could do would be to bandwagon onto FakePromise. This is a false statement. A better thing to do is to place yourself as the only "defender" (air quotes because the defense was weak) of the innocent townie and then point to another inactive. If he does that then we can't use his voting record against him day2, he looks clean if we kill FakePromise in spite of what his defense, and he can't be accused of bandwagoning since he provided the first real case against CosmosXAM even if that is who we kill. It is an all-win situation.
Here is what I think happened. After zarepath notices the trend towards a FakePromise lynch, multiple mentions, 3 votes. He waits for Simberto's vote after which there is a good chance that his defense of FakePromise is not going to change the lynchpath, especially if he has other mafia helping. He doesn't even add a vote to CosmosXAM right away in order to make his point. Yet again, he waits for Simberto to change his vote before zarepath commits and votes for CosmosXAM. And by the way, he already agrees with this analysis. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:
Honestly, the least-suspicous timing would have been for me to vote exactly when I posted.
And why did he pick CosmosXAM to go after in the first place? Well, Simberto had already voiced his suspicion of CosmosXAM twice, making him quite a safe target. This was going to work without a hitch until sl0osh attacked zarepath. Zarepath goes into overdrive defending himself and as soon as Simberto switches his vote back to FakePromise there is an instant change in zarepath's attitude. He is RELAXED. Soon to follow he posts 2 short messages that I can only describe as bantering with FakePromise who was then resigned to death. And I'm not the only one to recognize the strangeness of this exchange. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 11:56 slOosh wrote:
Anyone else see this scripted dialogue?
He is not concerned that that FakePromise, a person whom he is certain is town, is about to be lynched. He only has 3 things on his mind: relief that he dodged the bullet, making sure that everyone remembers he defended FakePromise, and pointing out that this is a very un-mafialike thing to do.
Ok, moving on to my direct attack of zarepath's defense. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:
But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics.
There are numerous others who only accuse without good argument, refuse to defend themselves, or don't even post at all. While a wall of text analysis is impressive, it's operating on assumptions and while it might feel cool to be suspicious of an active town contributor, you really have nothing to go on here.
Zarepath defends himself on the virtue of being active alone. The fact is your inconsistencies and posting led both sl0osh and me to suspect you more than 'any other active player'. So not only is this a bad defense (also one that zarepath disagrees with + Show Spoiler +On January 26 2012 04:28 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2012 04:11 MidnightGladius wrote:
Other indicators include his unwillingness to pressure lurkers, low-content posters, and inactive players. He argues that this would only force mafia to post more than the least-active innocent players, but that's exactly what we want: more content from players who would be most content saying nothing. The more they say, the more they're likely to slip up and reveal access to hidden information.
Forcing mafia to post more is always good, granted. But if the only reason they're posting more is so that we eliminate one of our obviously inactive townies, it would be better to focus our lynch on an active, suspicious person. The inactive townies will get replaced by active players and then we'll know who was lurking and who was just inactive. So yes, let's pressure the inactives and see what happens. But I would much rather lynch an active suspicious person than someone who probably just AFK'd a couple days.
Then there are these parts. + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:
Well, that was surprising, to say the least. Sloosh's post is quite rigorous. I think your intentions are good, but you're barking up the wrong tree.
I'm impressed with how thoroughly you've examined my posts. But honestly, if you were to decide that any other active player were mafia simply because you read a thread about active mafia, you would find similar "inconsistencies" that are simply misunderstandings in semantics.
Zarepath is surprised and impressed by sl0osh's analysis, and feels it is quite rigorous. He also agrees that the inconsistencies are present. Then he uses a euphemism 'barking up the wrong tree' which softens his 'you're wrong' statement. All of this makes me think he is mafia.
And look at this part + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:13 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +
Zelblade points out that town has 2 mislynches to Lylo (which I think is unhelpful information but that is beside the point). Zarepath uses this information. If you use someones info, it means that they are contributing. He ends the post saying that we should go after suspicious people, namely Zelblade.
He uses information provided by someone who he thinks as suspicious. He calls for pressure on zelblade that he does not create himself .
I'm the ORIGINAL pressure on zelblade. All zelblade pressure originated from me calling for his lynch at the very beginning.
I have a few more small points but this post is already too long so I'm going to end it with why I think that zarepath could be the godfather. It is mostly based on this post + Show Spoiler +On January 27 2012 10:58 zarepath wrote:
Also: feel free to investigate me at night, if there's a DT (which I highly suspect to be the case, considering the numbers). It will be a waste of an investigation, but with numerous lurkers not being pressured, multiple suspicious people not being followed up on, we're going to waste too much time and attention on me without a confirmation.
|
Based on my earlier views and new analysis by others I am still 100% backing a vote on zarepath so since it is a new day I continue that vote.
##Vote: zarepath
|
Another thing on zarepath that I would like to emphasis (might have been pointed out before) but after looking at the voting thread we can see that he has never been the first person to vote for someone, now this in itself is not a big reason to be suspicious but on top of all the other evidence it becomes more pertinant.
|
i agree with doyouhas
i feel like to divert attention way from himself zarepath began attacking me, using logic that doesnt lead to the conclusion that i am mafia, further more he only did so after adam made if convenient for him to do so
but doyouhas how do you feel about zarepath's attacks on me?
i am of the opinion that zarepath is creating a giant smokescreen just as he done on day 1
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
