EPTI'll be back later today to make some better reads, not sure exactly when (N.B. I know I said in a few hours, could be closer to the end of the "day", could be later in the actual day, etc) I'm helping move my dad into his new house.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 12
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drazak
United States479 Posts
I'll be back later today to make some better reads, not sure exactly when (N.B. I know I said in a few hours, could be closer to the end of the "day", could be later in the actual day, etc) I'm helping move my dad into his new house. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
On September 03 2012 01:02 JacobStrangelove wrote: you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason. Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 01:22 KillingTime wrote: Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level. Ehh that sounds fair. I more posted that for that clarification. | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
Regarding policy lynching: On September 02 2012 12:31 thrawn2112 wrote: Emphasis mine, double emphasis on the underlined part. I don't want a no-lynch. Even if a townie gets lynched we still gain information from their flip. If a player flips green then the next step is to look at who all played parts in getting them lynched. And besides that if we don't have a lynch goal for D1 I think there will be a lot less conversation than normal. As far as it being impossible to have a good lynch candidate, that's where lurker policy comes in. Regardless of if we lynch a lurker or not, coming out and deciding to lynch a lurker in the first 12 hours is going to stifle discussion and allow the mafia to know exactly what they need to do to not die (just be less lurky than someone else). In theory this works to get everyone discussing but if there is even one town who isn't posting often it gives the mafia a free pass D1. On September 02 2012 12:29 kushm4sta wrote: Also guys remember school starts soon if it hasn't already started. Sept 4th for me. This is going to make it kind of hard to distinguish malicious lurkers because people will have a good excuse. Low post count doesn't mean someone isn't town. Check my filter in NMMXXIV. Hopefully I'll be able to be more active here but why someone has a low post count isn't as important as what they say in their few posts. Regarding lists: This might be just me, but I don't want lists posted throughout the game. It's an easy wall for scum to hide behind without explaining why they think what they do and without forcing them to ever commit. Will have individual questions for people in a bit. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob. On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote: Im not lurking! I just woke up! Kville what are you doing? So far all you have done is make a single post to clarify that you're not lurking. I agree with stutters, the list stuff is kinda silly. I say they're a waste of time/effort. I'm not going to hold it against any of you that make them unless that's the extent of your contribution to the thread. Our focus needs to be more directed on scumhunting than just constantly updating lists of casual one liners about each player. | ||
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KillingTime
France101 Posts
Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
We have some serious lurker issues this game. Kville is about as lurker as you can get. @WeeTee and drazak, thanks guys for that killer analysis about why a no lynch d1 is a bad idea. I already heard it like 3 or 4 times but you two saying the same exact thing really brought it home. Then we have Cubu, who may not be the lurkerest lurker, but to me is the most suspicious. I don't think enough attention has been paid to this post, in which Cubu gives us a lecture on probability: On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. 1 I don't buy that he doesn't know how many mafia there are. Especially since he uses 3 in all his subsequent equations. 2 Whenever someone starts talking about the math I get suspicious. It's a way to write a lot without revealing anything but the universal laws of nature. 3 Admittedly his last sentence does seem kind of town. I think his take home point is that we shouldn't all accuse each other and let mafia lurk. But that is not really what's going on so far. There has been slight suspicion of non lurkers, but most of the attention has been directed towards accusing the lurkers and trying to get them to defend themselves. I think a mafia Cubu may be using this reasoning as a way to appear like he is contributing. So far I think he is our best lynch, even though we have bigger lurkers. ##vote Cubu And yeah grandma thrawn I put it in the voting thread too. | ||
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thrawn2112
United States6918 Posts
On September 03 2012 08:03 kushm4sta wrote:And yeah grandma thrawn I put it in the voting thread too. thanks kush you make me proud In regards to your vote... I think cubu is a good pick, but I'm also considering drazak for the same reasons I'm assuming you selected cubu. Both of them have been present since the beginning of the game yet they haven't contributed anything beyond discussing policy type of stuff. Stutters, weetee, and kville all have 1 post each so I'm willing to accept they've just gotten into the game late. The difference between the 1 post players and cubu/drazak is that cubu/drazak both posted at the start of the game so they have less of an excuse for not contributing. Do you have any scum reads on the active players? Right now I'm looking at jacob: On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote: As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob. | ||
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WeeTee
Australia24 Posts
Firstly Kush: From our previous game has been really consistent in his style and has kept it up here in the same manner, there is no reason I suspect him, unless he reveals his role again. Secondly Thrawn: again I have come to know the style of his and I think he provokes people and is really active, I cant see a difference in alignment in his posts (last time being town) so for now he is town in my eyes. All the rest I'm uncomfortable about. Based on how I view my ("thrawn town meta")(I learnt it from his posts). I see Jacob and Xatalos using a similar play style so also put them closer to town for the reason of being pokie and contributive. By default I put the rest on the not quite town side. KillingTime, drazak, kville, cubu, kreb, stutters and sonic. KillingTime On September 03 2012 01:22 KillingTime wrote: Leaving aside your other points for the moment - I don't think that this is a fair accusation. I posted once in the morning when I had woken up and saw the game had begun, and again in the afternoon when there had been some more discussion in the thread. I will probably try to make a longer post again this evening. I feel that is a good activity level. I think your defence is fine about not posting, especially on D1, the game needs to be played but we all have lives too. Drazak Your posts are to the point but only about rules. I have no judgement until you post more. kville wth is going on? cubu On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote: I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority. 3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention. So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0. This post for me is the most scum like I can find at this stage. Miss quoting the rules with the "There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?)" seems pointless when they are on page one, I have only a small feeling of confusion about this and if Kush is any precedent you may as well be town too! kreb 5 post ago you made a list like some others in the game stating your thoughts, I like that you included your self in the list, that is when we look at posters that; Are active and start a forward hunt by making everyone list things and then by leading the list dont put them selves on it. To me by including yourself this is a lean to town as well. stutters Your defence about not posting and its correlation with you in the past being town is interesting, I feel like I would start with that kind of post in the future if I kept getting D1 lynched too. So again from that point of view I would lean towards town. sonic On September 02 2012 21:14 Sonic Death Monkey wrote: For transparency, I think it's a good thing to for everyone to keep a list of suspects/non-suspects. This way we can hold people accountable for flip-flopping and actually demand some reasoning behind it. It'll also be easier to spot those key posts when later we'll be wading through tons of pages to do some background checks. Even though it's still early game and lots of information is yet to come, I think we might as well get this habit started now (reasoning in post above): Townie: thrawn kush Scum: KillingTime Kreb You are the one with the lists that I refer to, still this is a null read because list are not a bad idea. Just letting you all know I am here and want to contribute. I will be posting and looking for new reads as best as I can. | ||
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WeeTee
Australia24 Posts
If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm | ||
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 05:39 thrawn2112 wrote: As for the active players, I want to see more out of JacobStrangelove. His posts have failed to impress. His biggest contribution to the thread so far is typing up a list with short explanations for his reads on everyone. That is not scumhunting. Anyone can type up a list and include short justifications for early reads. A town player is more focused on actively contributing towards the process of finding scum and that's not what I'm seeing out of Jacob. I am not sure what you mean by not actively hunting scum. I have been looking at the lurkers pregame posts and finding things that match and things that don’t make sense. For example I rationalised at the time since the Kville posts were so close in time that he had only just started his active online time. However now that he hasn’t posted anything he could very well be a panicking mafia. If he just woke up you would assume he would post by now. (also did the same with Drazak but in this case got suspicion however he said he just woke up and it would take a few hours) But in this case Cuba is defiantly more mafia than Kville is. Because you would assume a mafia would at least post something slightly substantial to try and get “posting points” Cuba fits this bill nicely. He posted a practically useless post about numbers and saying we should lynch the lurkers. He is a lurker himself however if he is going with a strategy of lynch the person who lurks the most then obviously all he needs to do is post more than they do. If such a strategy occurred that might be 2 or so free kills for mafia before he is lynched (bussed or whatever you call it) and by that time mafia would have a really good chance of winning. (Assuming the mafia maintain a fairly active stance). On September 03 2012 07:43 KillingTime wrote: Jacob, I did not find your response to me very helpful, it was clearly contradictory for you to say that my reads were very/too safe and then give the "reads" that you did. I don't have any more scumhunting to offer at the moment though so I will nod off and see what the morning brings. So you are saying it’s safe to put you as scum xD But there might be a difference between safe and obvious. Such as Cuba. You are slowly working back to town on my list but I am still not convinced. Just seemed like how I would play mafia. I would be far less likely to fluff post due to being accused of fluff posts (can’t have fun *sob* people to kill *sob*) Ok so kush is back! (and the games begin) (btw I would argue that maths isn’t part of universal laws of nature but to avoid wish wash I won’t{the concept behind... oh never mind}) So it seems the focus is on cuba/drazak. This seems a logical approach due to both lurkers not posting anything of worth or hardly anything at all. Drazak sleeps at strange hours (Which I completely understand) but it is still odd. Most of what I have is circumstantial evidence. Also he is inactive in other threads. Cuba is now a higher scum read than killing is. Although I admit I might have a slight bias against someone with killing in his name. Writing this I seem to have forgotten about Kreb, I haven’t noticed anything unusual about him it seems. Responded well to his attacker/s and such. I am far more likely to town read WeeTee now, he has posted more listed reasons(more so than most lurkers to the point where he isn’t lurking). Also a good reason for thinking kreb is town. Putting yourself on a list probably raises your town credit (I just thought it was amusing at the time) However if people start doing it now it won’t change anything. On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: anddd kush and thrawn are here! If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm I dream of the day when Kush and Thrawn roll mafia together. The way they act would just be... perfect. So in short I am ehing and mehing over killing. Very convinced something is odd about cuba mostly convinced about Drazak. Towning WeeTee and everyone else have dropped off the radar. | ||
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Cubu
1171 Posts
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Cubu
1171 Posts
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JacobStrangelove
Australia1572 Posts
On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? Lynching the lurkers who have posted completly nothing is 50-50 could be bored town could be terrified mafia or terrified town you never know. You however are lurking (only one post longer than one line and that post is just statistics) and if you read what I wrote. I explain why you are a better choice. (than kville who I assume you are reffering to{but also not pick a lurker to lynch!}) You are not being decisive (you say lynch the lurkers.) What lurkers? Do you not want to be connected to the lynch? Sounds like scum to me. You have plenty of time to prove me wrong though. While lynching active members is more 25% chance or whatever (not going to go into the maths) you aren't exactly what I would call active. So in lynching you we ARE lynching a lurker. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: and its cubu, not cuba Sorry about that. Just habit I guess. | ||
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
On September 03 2012 08:44 thrawn2112 wrote: Do you have any scum reads on the active players? Right now I'm looking at jacob: Jacob, sonic, and killing are like a triumvirate of nullness. I don't have a good feel for any of them and can't distinguish one from another in my head. They accuse each other, which seems funny to me because they all act alike. But yeah null reads on those three until I get to know them better. And Cubu responded.. On September 03 2012 11:44 Cubu wrote: guys, before you lynch me, how about we go on with the plan of lynching the lurkers? You may have posted a few times but you have contributed nothing, which makes you a lurker. The only person who is a bigger lurker is kville. We are waiting on a post from him later which he promised and we will see what that looks like. lol @WeeTee On September 03 2012 09:05 WeeTee wrote: anddd kush and thrawn are here! If you guys were a scum team I'd facepalm We would make an epic scumteam. inb4 WeeTee is third scum and his statement was a reverse psychology mindfuck. | ||
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Cubu
1171 Posts
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kushm4sta
United States8878 Posts
I want to lynch cubu as my first choice, which is why he currently has my vote. Other people I would be comfortable with lynching at this point are drazak or kville. | ||
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