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Hey all, made it to the thread finally. Fathers day things kept me busy.
On September 02 2012 12:31 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 12:24 kushm4sta wrote:
Are people ok with NOT lynching anyone first night or is this generally thought of as bad play? Because honestly it seems impossible to have a good idea of who is mafia by then.
Last game everyone was like we NEED to lynch someone, and we ended up lynching WeeTee, an innocent! I love all my townies and I don't want to kill any. I don't want a no-lynch. Even if a townie gets lynched we still gain information from their flip. If a player flips green then the next step is to look at who all played parts in getting them lynched. And besides that if we don't have a lynch goal for D1 I think there will be a lot less conversation than normal. As far as it being impossible to have a good lynch candidate, that's where lurker policy comes in.
Last game was infuriating to say the least about getting lynched first, not my finest haggling. 
But we won!
I think the accusing and defend style is really effective at getting people to join in, and It helps with the learning curb, It did for me at least.
I'm all for a content based lurker lynch, and Kush you crack me up, are you the JK again? let us know so we can count you out.
Good to see you here @jacob should be a good game this time!
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On September 02 2012 21:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:There are a couple of posts that caught my attention. On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going. Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why? Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him. When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill.
It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement.
(As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
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Just wanted to step by and say that Im home (wooo, cant believe my previous post stirred up all of this!), Ive read everything, taken notes and I'll be posting a larger piece later this evening!
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On September 02 2012 22:00 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On September 02 2012 21:07 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:There are a couple of posts that caught my attention. On September 02 2012 10:18 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Alright fellow townies, one post before I go to bed, it's 3am over here.
Make sure to read the maffia guide thread if you haven't, it's really good. Try to make concise posts and think 'em through before posting, the last thing we need is added confusion.
We also need transparency, so try to contribute with at least one post per game day where you clearly explain your reasoning behind your most solid reads. If everyone does this, the mobsters will have to too.
And blue roles, with great power comes great responsibility, so please don't do stupid shit just because you can :p
Finally, keep in mind: if you're a vanilla townie, death by NK is a great honor and the best possible outcome for the group as a whole.
Goodnight and see ya tomorrow. This post is extremely fluffy, even for the first post of the thread. Just look at the bolded part: there's nothing of value in all that. No opinions, no reasoning, no stances on anything... Nothing. Everything in this post screams classic Mafia pseudo-active "posting for the sake of posting". Since this is a newbie game I think the basics needs to be pointed out asap before we move on. We just need to keep calm and make well thought-out posts, that way it'll be much more difficult for the scum to kick up shitstorms over nothing to get the town distracted. I've followed a few newbie games and the first couple of days the townies are usually too busy throwing around random accusations and lynching other townies to get any productive work going. On September 02 2012 19:08 Xatalos wrote:On September 02 2012 16:58 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Not only is a no-lynch bad, it's impossible. Read the rules.
Also, yeah, lynching active d1 posters is usually bad, especially in newbie games. Townies are usually a lot more comfortable with their role. Ime this leads the townies to post more and also say more stupid stuff. The town latches on to someone who said something stupid and we have a mislynch.
On the other hand mobsters are more careful with what they say because they don't want to slip up and get noticed. I'm mostly suspicious of semi-active posters who post nothing but fluff. The bolded part here is something I agree with, but on the other hand, it fits Sonic Death Monkey himself quite well... His filter seems like the most semi-active and fluffy at the moment. Sonic Death Monkey, do you see anyone more suspicious than yourself (by your own standards) right now? If so, who and why? Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. As for your question, I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point. In my experience, people engaging in discussions and poo-flinging early game are less likely to be scum. For this reason, I'll give some townie points to kush and thrawn. Thrawn also seems to be a productive and solid contributor. It'll be hard for him to keep up with that if he's really scum, so some extra townie points for him. When it comes to scum, I'm really suspicious of people who just pop in to make a fluffy post and then disappear. For now, Kreb and KillingTime seems to fit that bill. It's good to see some content from you (I agree with your point about thrawn2112), but the bolded part here is just... weak. Okay, Kreb and KillingTime have done basically nothing so far. But the same applies to Cubu, WeeTee and drazak. Why do you think Kreb and KillingTime are scummy but players like Cubu, WeeTee or drazak are not? Show some reasoning, not just a basic statement. (As a sidenote, the above mentioned lurkers + Kville should really start posting some more, or it's going to be much more difficult to identify the Mafia lurkers.)
I agree it's weak, that's why I said: "I think it's easier to find people standing out as likely townies at this point". I think the reasoning behind it is solid, but this early information is obviously limited. If nothing else, putting a little bit of heat on them might induce them to contribute more.
The reason I didn't include Cubu and drazak is because both their two first post are the kind of flimsy first couple of post I expect from comfortable townies (particularly Cubu's). TeeWee just entered the thread with the mother of all fluffy posts, so he'll be on the list as well.
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Sorry WeeTee but here we go again. I find it suspicious that you would jump into the thread at this point and not say anything about current events or your reads. It looks like scum trying to hide, or townie who isn't putting in the necessary effort. Kreb, same sentiment to you until you make that post you promised us.
@ drazak, kreb, cubu, kville, killingtime and stutters... you guys need to get in here and share some reads. None of you have assigned a read of any kind on anyone.
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Im not lurking! I just woke up!
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When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy:
SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny:
thrawn
Xatalos
Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure:
Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff:
- I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
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I'll split up my post into 3 because they kinda touch on 3 difference things.
Ok, here we go. Comments on people in order of appearance on the player list!
1) KillingTime
Pretty good post. Somewhat agreeing with the reads on Sonic and Jacob (both careful but active posters). Not agreeing on Xatalos. Slight town read.
2) drazak
Nothing. Just agreeing.
3) kushm4sta
Most information about so far. Two options:
A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations.
B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial.
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Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains.
4) WeeTee
One post. Nothing really.
5) thrawn2112
Most thoughtful posting so far. Nothing which really points either way. Could maybe argue he had no reason to step into my defense had he been mafia. If so, he should have preferred to leave it, So possibly a very slight townread for that reason. Seemingly asset-if-town and dangerous-if-mafia though. Posting seem to be similar to his previous posts (as town then).
6) Xatalos
Long post, not much else than agreeing and questioning. Also agreeing with senseless post by kush. Agreeing with senseless posting is however more "mafia-ish" than senseless posting itself. Very slight mafia read. Is this what you would call FoS? =)
7) Kville
Nothing.
8) Cubu
Two short posts. Nothing really.
9) Kreb
Myself!
10) Stutters695
No posts.
11) JacobStrangelove
Bunch of posts. Not much worth mentioning though. Thoughtful but careful posting. Not actively defending me as thrawn but still not buying the kush posts. Careful being the key word. Nothing worth drawing conclusions on but definitely something worth keeping in mind should this habit change. Too bad he doesnt have a posting history to look at. :p
12) Sonic Death Monkey
Solid posting. Also careful though. Seems to have good ideas. Possibly a bit early conclusions, but hes at least aware of it. Ind the end, not much really. Also without history.
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On the wording of "slight" (which people seemed to question):
Im not sure what words the rest of you prefer. But to me, first day is gonna be almost random. It would be incredibly interesting to know what kind of "mafia hit rate" games have on first day. Because with 9 townies and 3 other mafias, you'd be hitting mafias 25% of the time if D1 lynch was random. And quite frankly I really doubt you're ever gonna get much higher hit rate than that. Maybe even lower. Recent newbie games also supports 25%, although the sample size is obviously VERY small.
So to me, I got 11 people I can vote for and 3 mafias. Thats 27%. To me, a "slight" read on someone is if I maybe consider it to be 30 or 35% chance of him being a mafia (mind you, still below 50%). A "medium" read would be closer to if I believe its 50%. A "strong" read would maybe be, I dunno, 75%. When people post they got "solid" or "strong" read on day 1 after 1 post, Im honestly totally going O.O (yes I did exactly that). And I cant help counter-asking, what exactly is a "slight" read for you in that case?
Face it, D1 is gonna be a mostly random vote on very small reads. Our chance of hitting wont go up to 50% or anything. Its the name of the game. So since there wont be any strong reads (what I'd call strong), slight reads are better than nothing. Voting on a slight read isnt good, but its the least bad option we have D1.
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Onto questions:
+ Show Spoiler +You do realize the deadline is very far?
Yes. And I have no idea why you would imply I didnt.
Question to kush: Why such aggressive, borderline unpleasant, posting due to one post by one person on D1? Try to ignore the fact that this is coming from the guy you accused. Im trying to find out why you would think that KIND of posting was appropriate. You could have expressed your suspicions in a much nicer and more composed way without almost ridiculing me (and maybe got more support for your claim then?). Why did you choose such agressive posting?
+ Show Spoiler +Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why?
I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over.
Question to Xatalos regarding this:
+ Show Spoiler +This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline".
Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate.
If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet.
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On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote:
When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
Here are my current reads so far. I would consider them weak ( esp as we have players who have hardly/not posted yet), but if they are not addressed in later play then I will be concerned - :
Scummy:
SonicDeathMonkey: I appreciate your efforts to keep the thread ordered and moving along. But, that is a nice null read at best. Your posting reads too much like scum trying to push others along without much substantive play in the hope that it will create a nice wagon to jump on or an outspoken townie you can target. You must stop trying to play threadcop and post some original reads with better reasoning.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
WeeTee - I agree with thrawn that only a fluffy first post, is now hard to justify now that there has been some discussion. Needs to follow up with a better second post. Weetee can stand in for anyone else who has not posted as well, at this point we have enough of a thread that just a fluff post is not a good entrance.
Towny:
thrawn
Xatalos
Both have posted good content, logically reasoned.
Unsure:
Kushm4sta’s posting so far confuses me. I need to think about them more/see what else he posts before I develop any kind of read.
Fluff:
- I have never watched the TV show the flavour for this game is based on - so please don’t make any jokes and expect me to understand them.
As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads.
Kush is acting too spazzy not to be considered townie. Throwing in a random vote early with really baseless accusations is not what scum will do. He's also in my townie list. When it comes to your reads on Xatalos I tend to agree, he goes in the same category as thrawn. You yourself provided a good follow up to your first post, I have no real reason to suspect you.
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On September 02 2012 23:59 Kreb wrote:
3) kushm4sta
Most information about so far. Two options:
A) Senseless accusations based on one post (my post) which agrees on the same thing everyone else already agreed on (I just agree like all others did, I couldnt imagine it would cause this to occur :p). Could mean hes "over-scumhunting" due to inexperience (if you believe in something you, unconsciously, look for confirmations to said belief and find "proofs" for it where there is none). Funnily enough, if A is the case, thats a slight/medium townread. It seems quite unlikely a mafia would come barking in like that with senseless accusations.
B) Is kinda playing with the rest of us trying to provoke discussions/force reactions by purposedly posting senseless accusations. Actually, I kinda like that. It creates discussion and forces opinions, which later can be checked back when we know more about who is/was mafia/town. Actually, I would argue provoking by random accusations is something a good player should probably have in his repertoire. And conversely, if B is true, the town read is gone and he could either be a townie looking for clues or a rather hardcore metaing mafia. Either way B likely means hes more of an asset as town and a more dangerous opponent as mafial.
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Looking through his posting in previous Newbie mafia, I'd say it supports A over B. Town read remains.
Since I haven't been active in the maffia thread before I have no pre-game reads on people, but I definitely read kush's as an inexperienced townie.
- An inexperienced townie tends to often act spazzy because he knows he's townie and somehow underestimates the power of the imperfect information in this game. Once his spazzy actions leads to a bandwagon he becomes aware of how difficult it actually is to convince others of his innocence and stop the wagon.
- An inexperienced scum on the other hand is afraid of attention because he realizes the danger of a bandwagon. Since he has close to full information he feels guilty from the get go and wants to stay out of sticky situations.
Assuming players are capable of high level meta in newbie games will end up with disaster almost always. If kush actually was experienced his action would've been weird, as is I view them as clear cut townie. This is a clear cut situation where occam's razor is our friend.
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I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
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Question to Sonic:
Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this:
Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing.
(Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".)
Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt).
But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution?
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On September 02 2012 22:57 Kville wrote:
Im not lurking! I just woke up!
Got anything to say other than you're not lurking? It's been almost 2 hours since that first post of yours and I expected you to post something substantial by now. Aside from stutters who hasn't posted you're #1 on my lurker watch-list.
On September 03 2012 00:04 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
As far as I can tell you've just latched on to my reads and reasonings for thrawn and WeeTee, I don't see why you'd accuse me of not having original reads.
In the future remember that pointing out hypocrisy does nothing to address a person's argument.
JacobStrangelove: Out of all the non-lurkers you've participated the least in scumhunting (asking questions, pointing out posts you find scummy, etc), is there anyone you find suspicious?
Cuba that last post of yours is useless for the purposes of scumhunting.
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Oh and Cuba don't edit your posts it's in the rules.
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On September 03 2012 00:37 Cubu wrote:
I was thinking, what if the mafias are staying quiet to avoid attention to themselves. Maybe, those lurkers are infact the mafia and are trying to just let the others kill each other. There are 12 people playing and 4 mafias (or was it 3?). The fact of the matter is that we have no clues in the first day. So no matter how much we think about it, its all random. Lets kill A, no lets kill B, makes no difference in terms of probability. Of course the chance is in favour of the mafia, because they are the minority.
3/12 = 25% in a random choice. That is 25% chance of randomly lynching the mafia on the first day, which means 75% chance of lynching the townie. I'm thinking the mafia is just waiting for people to accuse each other while they stay silent, away from the accusations, away from the townies attention.
So overall, there is 25% chance of someone being mafia, but if we are not thinking about all 12 to kill (i.e a discussion involving severall loudmouths accusing and defending each other while the mafia are quietly taking their time) it isn't really 25% but infact 0.
If that was the case, then Kville, TeeWee, dazark and you would be prime candidates. You're the ones flying under the radar atm.
The observations you make in this post are both obvious and have been covered earlier in the thread. It isn't very convincing and it makes you suspicious. I'm sorry if it's just due to inexperience, but if you want to contribute you need up your level of analysis. To update my list:
Townie:
kush
xatalos
thrawn
Scum:
teewee
cuba
Killer and Kreb dropped from suspect list due to solid contributions.
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On September 03 2012 00:44 Kreb wrote:Question to Sonic: Upon Xatalos calling you out a bit for not contributing, you reply with this: Show nested quote +Fair enough. I think that description fits basically anyone within the first 10-20 post of the thread though. Once the discussion gets going, like it's starting to now, we'll see which posters are ducking and which ones are actually contributing. (Personal opinion: I agree with you and wouldnt hold that against you, I think Xatalos was "over-scumhunting".) Then next post, you list me and KillingTime as scum for that very reason. Becaue we didnt contribute with our first two posts (which I agree we didnt). But the obvious question then: Why would you list two people as possible scum for the very same reason you used yourself to explain why your own posts werent full of contribution?
The reason was not so much the level of contribution (although that's a factor), but the fact that you just made one post and disappeared. Ime it's common for scum to make a post to make their presence known and then stay out of the thread expecting townies to start flinging poo at eachother (and it tends to work). Like I said, at that stage they were very loosely based accusation but if nothing else it might induce those people to start posting.
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On September 02 2012 23:09 KillingTime wrote:
When we call for an “active” thread - I think what we mean is players making logical cases and then responding to them.
JacobStrangelove: Almost every post in your filter thus far is wishy washy and lacking in any content - your conclusion on lynching lurkers? It comes down to instinct. On nolynch day one: You disagree(only acceptable response to that dumb question) - but do “know what you mean”. On my first post? “Maybe it was pointless.. but on the flip side”. You have managed to be active without any content on even the most innocuous of debates - scummy until you get more involved with the thread.
Well first I would like to deal with this; I do have a very back in forth style of conversation. One of my strengths/problems I that have a very open minded approach. I don’t work on scum or not scum I work on the probability and likelihood.
On September 02 2012 19:38 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying.
This is amplified when there is so little to go on. Also I don’t see much difference between your first post.
On September 02 2012 15:19 KillingTime wrote:
Good Morning All, (and Glhf). It has been a bit of a wait but it's nice to be getting started. I don't think no-lynch is a good idea - at the very least a lynch discussion generates some substantive posts that can be analysed later. Without a lynch discussion we will have a tougher time D2, because policy/activity/setup chatter is pretty much a Null read.And ofc, we are aiming to hit scum...
And mine
On September 02 2012 11:33 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I guess part of it comes down to instinct and analysing what you can such as who defends them and why.
We both refer to analysis (not just instinct) and another thing I noted
If we go back to my other post regarding no lynch (posted before yours) we find this
On September 02 2012 12:48 JacobStrangelove wrote:
To lynch or not to lynch that is the question! But lynching does give information which is something that is normally lacking in the first day. If we didn't lynch then the second day would be much like the first (confusion etc..) But I was watching last game so I know what you mean. Besides the town with bad arguments or the ones that don't post normally get lynched first (or the ones that panic which is understandable) so it's not like we lose a really valuable analyst if we lynch first day.
So we are both talking about the exact same thing. I say second day would be much like the first and right after you say it will be tougher day 2. So I don’t think you can fairly say I have been more or less inactive than you have. The only thing that makes you “less scum” is the fact you posted a list of people you have slight reads on. In your second post after waiting a fairly large amount of time. From your first post I got the impression you just woke up (looking at time zones you are in euro I might be correct) Basic maths not my strong point. (That said you might have had work)
Now while this conviction makes you seem more town it’s easy to say you have a scum read on everyone afk such as weetee so this doesn’t put you in any trouble. There is already some tension on Sonic so he is also a safe “weak read”
So I do have some reads. These are obviously slight reads but aren’t they all. In order of most scummy.
Scum:
Killing time: I do read you as scum you post twice one with a very safe set of people to accuse (apart from myself to this point) and you were missing for a large period of time with no apparent reason.
Sonic: I am also unsure about sonic due to the point you brought up regarding him being a fluffy poster as well. That said (I am doing this again I know...) what he said about it fitting everyone in the thread so far also is a sound argument. However my initial scum read was sonic. (due to fluffy posting) only question is why would a sonic Killing time team act this way?
Drazak: Looking at his pre-game very active at many different times when game starts almost nothing 3 posts that make almost anyone’s “fluffy posting” look like logical geniuses.
Cuba: Lurk factor (just appeared!) Funny he would mention the mafia lurking when he seemed to be lurking
But these are only first impressions so we shall see.
Townies
Xatalos: I think he is providing good solid posts asking questions.
Kush: probably town or a really twisted scum. Mostly likely town though as I said in my other post “(I honestly agree with the mafia would be less likely to go on a drunken rampage like kush is displaying.)”
Thrawn: Only a very slight town read active ready to throw around accusations etc.. Doesn’t seem like scum behaviour.
No clue
WeeTee: going to withhold judgment as I have nothing. Killing mentioned that having a fluff entrance post is bad at this time in the discussion but honestly I probably would have entered the same way. Only difference is I would post more after though.
Kreb: Maybe a scum read but not enough to put him in there. His “list” is basically just agreeing with everything except the one person that is controversial. Possible Kreb/Killing team?
Kville: only post is not lurking just woke up. (you sleep for a while) this does match up actually. If you look at his pregame post Kville United States. August 29 2012 22:00. Posts 99” and his not lurking post “Kville United States. September 02 2012 22:57. Posts 99” Times match up exactly.
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On September 03 2012 00:04 Kreb wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Kreb, if you want to convince me you're not Mafia, then who do you think is Mafia and why? (by Xatalos) I dont think anyone is mafia at this point. As I said, barring some mafia making a terrible slip-up and revealing themselves, I dont "think" anything yet. At best, I have a very slight read right now, and I dont expect to get much more of a read before D1 is over. Question to Xatalos regarding this: + Show Spoiler +This is another way of saying "I'm going to wait for a bandwagon to form and then jump on it close to the deadline". Can you please elaborate on how what I said is another way of saying this? To me, its the opposite. Im actually committing to not bandwagoning by posting something like that (and I believe I have now also fullfilled said commitment, hah), as I say I will do other things to find clues. So please, do elaborate. If I had to vote right now, I'd probably just blow my vote on either of the non-posters or single-posters so far. If I had to vote on someone who has been posting, Xatalos would probably be my choice. But no, that doesnt necessarily mean that I think he (or anyone else) is mafia. At least not yet.
It's so very easy to say things like "I'll post something useful closer to the deadline". As Mafia, it's the perfect situation: you can observe the thread and then start pushing someone who would have been lynched anyway. You have now started actually posting, so it doesn't look as bad for you, but the original point still stands. Why would a townie feel the need to make such a promise about his future contributions? That just screams inherent guilt and desire to push the attention to other lurkers. Maybe this is going too deep, but that's how I see the situation.
kushm4sta's strong accusation of you was maybe too hasty, but it showed that he was ready to share his thought processes without hesitation. That reads town to me. It wasn't such a bad accusation either, even if it jumped to conclusions too fast. kushm4sta's careless and hasty posts look way more townish than your slight reads and careful stances.
Anyways, now I have to return to military service. I'll be back tomorrow with more analysis when our evening break begins.
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EPT
