Alright, I'm back from school and I'll post some clarifications and explanations for things you guys have all pointed out right after I post my promised suspicions about viscera. Viscera's analysis is not long, as I mentioned earlier.
+ Show Spoiler + Supersoft, and Palmar if you're reading this, I'm pretty sure I understand how you guys felt now :p
Visceraeyes:
The main thing with viscera is that he pretty much never considered any of the people we now know are almost certainly mafia (Mig, nard, BB/bum) until Mig's lynch was certain, he soft defended all 3, and he's been rather inactive. No one has really voiced many opinions on him, but when I asked bum about viscera he replied with "not so much." ...?
Also, I'm leaning scum on viscera, as in we should investigate him tonight and tomorrow in preparation for who to lynch after lynching bum tomorrow. Today nard is a for sure, there isn't anything to discuss there, so it's time to move on. Between bum and vain I obviously prefer bum, and then the rest are kinda iffy, but I have my suspicions of viscera/pyo/rayzor/kurumi.
I should also add that, as Foolish mentioned when he was alive, the bigger picture here is what's important. Individually, some of these posts don't really telegraph any intentions.
One of VE's first posts:
On August 22 2011 23:56 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 03:21 supersoft wrote:
no. Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game. Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit. Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space. So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared. And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth. But I want to see a better case from you regardless. Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point? We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way. I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: On August 20 2011 06:52 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote:
I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth. Here you go: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:
If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive? Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people? I asked for something of substance and this is what I got? Oh, you.  Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths. What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it. I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion. That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho. So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder. ##Vote: JeeJee The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". On August 20 2011 09:55 BrownBear wrote:
It's cute that you tell everyone I'm wrong without explaining exactly why I'm wrong.
lern2backupyouraccusations Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear. Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear We'll start here guys. Palmar is SCUM. His case against BrownBear can be summed up in 2 lines. 1) Palmar feels BB's reaction to Palmar's scummy-ass tunneling is...scummy. 2) He sees BB's accusation and subsequent vote on JeeJee as diversionary. But look at the size of that post! Just look at it! Know why it's that size? Because everything he's posted before here has been 1 line throwing suspicion around and NOW he has to actually look like he's scumhunting! But read it...he's not. He's saying the same thing he's BEEN saying, only throws a quote or two in there to make it look like scumhunting. I haven't found BB OR DB to be particularly pro- or anti-town, but Palmar for some reason claims his scumhunting has been 'the best' in the game so far, and that he's 'more town than anyone' this game. He's manipulating everyone, and it's time it's over. He escaped lynch yesterday with this nonsense...the fact that there are those of you who believe him is unsettling. But Palmar is scum, and he needs to hang. I'm voting for him.
In VE's first post he attempted to discredit Palmar's vote on BB as being devoid of reason.
Now, I find nothing wrong with VE's tunneling of Palmar, just as I found nothing wrong with Palmar's tunneling of DB (it was just a wee bit strange.) All of us had suspicions about Palmar because his methods were strange to us, but I don't think any of us had objective reasons for claiming that Palmar was mafia. I at least, accused Palmar of being scum (along with supersoft) when I was raging over the fact that hiro died and the two of them were acting like it was really obvious that sev+hiro were town and that we were all stupid.
Acting on my emotions, I was being retarded, and I realized that a couple hours later, when I had calmed down. Here, though, Viscera seemed to be trying to discredit Palmar despite the fact that his argument against BB was very good.
Palmar's analysis of BB is, indeed, what made me first suspicious of him. I never really thought much about Viscera's post here because, by itself, it's almost meaningless.
Next quote, I've broken it in two.
On August 23 2011 00:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
Yeah, I'm pretty sure how I play the game isn't determined on others.
ANYWAY, also notice how with his little 'experiment' he found TWO people suspicious. BrownBear AND Sevyrn...but when it came down to lynch time, where did Palmar's vote end up? Did it end up on the person who he actually THOUGHT was 'suspicious'? Well, YES. See, his post made it clear that while he found Sevyrn suspicious, he found BB MORE suspicious.
I don't really understand how this was meant to discredit Palmar, because it just gave more merit to his argument. It seems to me like Viscera was attempting to paint Palmar as scum. Read through though; there's nothing at all scummy about wanting to vote who you think is scum. That's just good town play.
Also, Palmar famously posted that he thought the chances of Sevryn flipping scum were 0.2%. So no, he did not believe that Sevryn was scummy; that's a blatant lie.
On August 23 2011 00:11 VisceraEyes wrote:
My guess? He was setting up today's lynch by leaving his vote on BB. Notice it's there again today. He didn't care who got lynched in reality because no one was voting for scum (it's my opinion that Rayzor is town, so far.) And that way, he's not on the wrong side of the lynch WHEN Sev flipped scum!
Man, for as bad as his play has been, he's playing pretty well. *rolls eyes emphatically*
His vote was on BB because he believed BB was scum...again, scummy how? I mean, I ignored Palmar during day 1 and day 2 just because it was really fucking annoying to read through his spam. I had a strong town read on him up until he began going a little weird after hiro's death. Despite that, I thought that his analysis and vote were both genuine. (well, except for that 2-3 hour period where I wanted to do nothing but kill both super and palmar lol)
On August 23 2011 05:27 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2011 14:40 Foolishness wrote:
It's because I'm not sure what to make of the night events. I got roleblocked and shot. That's not something most people would do. Either way you got some pretty damning evidence against Mig there.
##Vote Mig Foolish, I'm concerned about your vote here. If you're not sure what to make of a night's events, why in the hell would you vote for someone that is in your opinion involved? I reread Mig's posts (like you, it was short reading) and he hasn't done anything overtly scummy so far...there are a LOT of scummy targets out here, why Mig? Everyone is voting based on YOUR logic, I'd like you to state ALL of the reasons you think Mig is the best lynch if you please.
This is one of the more important posts.
This is a soft defend of Mig. Goes well with the following:
On August 23 2011 06:26 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 06:22 Foolishness wrote:On August 23 2011 06:14 Jackal58 wrote:
Dammit.
Why did you slam a vote onto Sevryn when it was obvious there was a very good possibility the vote may have been shifted off of a person that appeared to be a townie getting mislynched? Don't forget that Mig did this as well. Let's say Rayzor is mafia. Does it make sense for one of Mig or Vain to be mafia? Yes because their votes ensured that the vote switch wouldn't happen. Does it make sense for both of them to be mafia? No because mafia wouldn't out two of their members just like that. You obviously know who I think is mafia. Vain's posting may not be the most optimal, but he writes stuff like this: On August 23 2011 04:22 Vain wrote:On August 23 2011 04:13 supersoft wrote:
i'd prefer vain but let's do it.
##Vote: xtfftc wtf, you prefer me but lets just go for xtffc. Sounds logic. Now when its not xtffc you can always say"oh jeah i liked vain better" very convenient That's totally a townie talking there. Not afraid to voice his opinion or yell at someone. I'm not totally sold that he's townie, it's just Mig looks a lot better for lynching now. Not to mention if Vain flips green we'll be back at square one. If Mig flips green we can look at who jumped on his case after Chaoser's initial vote today. Can you maybe rewind and replay that post, only start it with "Let's say Rayzor is town" please? See where that leads you? This whole post is nothing but WIFOM.
This isn't WIFOM. Read it carefully and you'll see that it's not. VE is attempting to discredit Foolish here, when Foolish has a very good post and very reasonable logic. Again, another soft-defend of Mig (and also likely Rayzor)
One of the conclusions that I drew very recently upon rereading this post by VE and the quoted post from Foolish is that, since Mig was mafia, only one of Rayzor/vain can be mafia.
On August 23 2011 09:05 VisceraEyes wrote:
Guys, that's entirely beside the point. Meta is all you people listen to. METAMETAMETA. I bring up one post about meta and NOW you're scumhunting. NOW you're looking for contradictions in peoples' posts.
[sarcasm]Brilliant. I'm certainly more trusting of you now...[/sarcasm]
This seemed to me like a strong jab at Foolishness/chaoser and their use of meta to pin Mig.
Even in context the post doesn't make much sense, though.
On August 23 2011 09:08 VisceraEyes wrote:
Foolishness, hiro protagonist, Palmar, xtfftc.
BOOM Headshot.
Discuss.
All four town, just subjectively "scummy" enough that day to be good potential lynches for mafia. We all ended up bandwagoning hiro, so mafia agenda was achieved.
On August 23 2011 11:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
My scum-list is long. And hard.
His response to my post asking for people's opinions. Basically saying he's
a.) unwilling to put in the work to examine his suspects
b.) putting up an excuse/reason not to post analysis (i.e. he'd have to fabricate it.)
It seems, in context of all his other posts, like a reluctance to contribute.
On August 23 2011 09:23 VisceraEyes wrote:
I see it Mig, but I feel like most everyone you just listed is town...
Soft defend of Mig there, made in response to Mig's post that "no one was defending him"
On August 25 2011 13:45 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 10:09 Foolishness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +HUNTING SEASON IS NOW OPEN!!That's right fellow players! After 2 torturous days of trying to find mafia, hunting seasons has officially begun! The target of our illustrious hunt is the elusive and fearful BROWNBEAR![[image loading]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y2cN7mKANaY/TVgSfXr783I/AAAAAAAAArA/aSTW4kc1l50/s1600/Brown+bear+C+Ivan+Seryodkin+copy.jpg) I will go through in detail the characteristics of the BrownBear. It is vital that we are all prepared to catch this sneaky fellow, as if we are too loud he will simply run away from our grasp, and if we are not careful he will sneak up behind us and maul (shoot) us. 1) restatement of already said arguments.As everyone should, BrownBear has written paragraphs to explain his lynch votes. Of course, everyone should justify their vote so we know where we stand. But our BrownBear is lacking in that he has yet to make a vote that is uniquely is own and push for it. Let me bring to attention these two posts: + Show Spoiler +On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote:And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote:
Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie
## vote DropBear His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar. Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 03:06 Sevryn wrote:On August 20 2011 02:46 DropBear wrote:OK wtf Palmar? I actually don't understand. What is your problem with me exactly? Nearly all of your posts are one liners that are some variation of "Kill DropBear". On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote:you guys are fucking lazy and boring. Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan. Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time. Here's his PTP2 opening post for comparison: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10466682He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way. SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM The "not safe" post you link included a joke about Harry Potter, a complete throwaway vote on kitaman27 and a joke about sandroba's plans. My first post in this thread advocated forcing people to change their vote, how is that so incredibly safe compared PTP2? I don't actually understand your case, I will talk to you more if you actually come up with something.
On August 19 2011 18:14 supersoft wrote:On August 19 2011 18:00 Palmar wrote:
how about putting your vote on dropbear?
##Vote DropBear i just filtered him, and he just posted one policypost and no thoughts about other people. Why not pressuring him a bit. Can't be bad. ##Vote DropBearand before anyone jumps on me like: "wtf he bandwagoned blablabla" - like Curu did in AA; I am NOT one of the players, that bandwagons on anyone random with a bad explanation only to show up the next day like "hey guise sorry what happened, oh you lynched scum - yea well I had stuff to do." I will be there at the end of the day and put my vote on scum. My posts are 2 pages after the game started. 2 pages. Half the players hadn't even posted yet and most of the ones who did posted nothing other than "/confirm". How do you expect me to have reads on people before they have even posted, through divination? Time travel? What's with the random defence of your actions at the end? It's like you know it's a stupid idea, but you're doing it anyway. Alright since I don't see anything scummy about dropbear at this point I'm going to take my pressure vote off of him. In swedish palmer asked me to put a pressure vote on someone who turned out to be scum. Because pressure votes don't work near as well if you say its a pressure vote I made up a bullshit reason to vote in that gmae like I did this game. LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you. I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day. Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Vote Sevryn. On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote:k, xtfftc: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
He obviously had something in mind and there's no way he wasn't aware of how his accusations would be perceived by the rest of us.
However, his strategy hasn't benefited town by now. He has until the deadline to convince me to vote DropBear or BrownBear. If nothing meaningful comes out of the discussion initiated by him, I'd rather have one less player who throws arbitrary accusations around.
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour. This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't). Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 05:15 xtfftc wrote:
Oh, the vote is in 30 hours, not in 6 hours. I thought we were running out of time. :/
Still, I'll stick to Palmar for now. Ok, fair enough, I'm sure you'll come back later in the day cycle to see how the discussion is panning out and see if you're opinion needs changing... Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:04 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 02:56 Curu wrote:
wat
I'm asking for your thoughts on Sevyrn. Surely you have some thoughts on Sevyrn just from reading the thread like a good diligent Townie would be doing. I don't want a carefully crafted opinion or analysis, I want to know what you think about Sevyrn right now. Mafia. The "pressure vote" thingie sounded too much like an attempt to be tough on mafia - and once he realised he screwed up he tried to disappear. On August 21 2011 02:57 supersoft wrote:xtfftc on the other hand confuses my "I-know-not-all-of-you-are-scum-so-please-vote-list" with my accuses on him. I admit, I overlooked him when I made that list. However that doesn't mean my accuse on the first place was a mistake.
I didn't revenge-voted him for voting palmar. I don't care who votes palmar. I voted him for his reason to vote Palmar.
I never said such a thing - I simply pointed out you were sloppy. Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it. Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote:
By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further. A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten. I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up! Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:40 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 03:35 wherebugsgo wrote:
LOL Sevryn's running out of time. If he doesn't vote/defend himself, he gets modkilled, no? The question is whether he will get modkilled enough to allow us another lynch target. Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.) Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote:
By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further. wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already? I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills. This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more. The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been. Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town. Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 04:42 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 03:54 Palmar wrote:
he won't get modkilled if he's about to be lynched anyway, or well, that's the general way things are done. In this case, ##Vote: SevrynNow, let's proceed with a discussion of what actually matters. On August 21 2011 03:54 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote:
By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further. wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already? I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills. Then who do you propose we vote for? My gut says supersoft and QuickSilver but my gut is biased and wants those who go after me dead ^^ Although Supersoft being so cautious when defending Sevryn and yet so aggressive against me and his earlier bandwagonning is something worth remembering. I want to hear more from DropBear and BlackBear. I do not find DropBear particularly suspicious but he still has to answer the questions raised. BlackBear is suspicious (going too agressively against inactive players, some random accusations) and, unlike DropBear, is a target we might get a majority for. Hiro, judging by the OP I think we have about 6 hours left. This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits. His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas. Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 07:46 xtfftc wrote:
Would you pick a non-lynch instead of lynching Sevryn? Raises the concept of a no-lynch (this was in the period where everyone was thinking "wait a minute what if Sev's just dumb town?). Show nested quote +On August 22 2011 23:12 xtfftc wrote:On August 22 2011 22:33 Palmar wrote:
Yes, I have quite a few questions. are you available for a conversation?
First thing's first. Do you have any major suspicions. If it's up to you and you only, whom would you lynch today? Sure. I'm still just as suspicious of Rayzor as I saw two days ago. His defense ("would a mafia say this?") did not convince me because he was in a position when he had to say something like this. However, just like to days ago, I think that he is someone who should be pressured to talk more until he makes another mistake or we are convinced he is town. Even if he is mafia, he is not particularly dangerous at the moment because he can not influence the town at the moment. This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor. This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?" Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me: Show nested quote +Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor. So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one? After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself. VERDICT: He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further". In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped. I'm comfortable lynching him. ##Vote: xtfftc In the first spoiler, we see the BrownBear explaining his vote for Sevryn. On it's own there's not much to say about it, and if this was the first accusation against Sevryn it would be pretty legit. The problem is that it's not the first accusation against Sevryn. By the time he made this post, Curu and wherebugsgo had already spent hours explaining why Sevryn deserved to die, and embedded in their arguments (as well as others) where the exact same reasons BrownBear listed. All he did was restate what everyone said. The first post of Sevryn's he quoted was the exact post that started the lynch against him (Sevryn), which was first pointed out by Curu and Kurumi. BrownBear wrote a text wall to explain his vote which can be summed up as "I agree with everyone". And he was here posting in the thread against Palmar when the first accusations on Sevryn were going up as well. Except he tossed his vote on JeeJee with a text wall of analysis (some of which I admit was good). The problem here is that he accused JeeJee (fine) but then never again said a word about him. BrownBear was active for the next ~6 hours and was posting but never against said the name JeeJee. If he really thought JeeJee was mafia, he'd be there trying to push his lynch and get people off the Sevryn wagon. Instead he posted one liners (most against Palmar) and flat out did not say anything of significance to the town. This is where the mafia hide. BrownBear is guilty of rewriting arguments to justify his votes. He's guilty of waiting until there are votes on a person before switching to them (check the voting history if you don't believe me. Both times he waited until at least 5 people were voting before switching to Sevryn/xtfftc). Both times he restated arguments to justify his vote. Even more incriminating, he never pushed hard to lynch anyone. He would make his vote post then write one liners and hardly touch upon his accusation. He seldom talks about who he thinks is mafia, and most of the time it's only when asked when he tells. Also, if I'm right about Mig and Rayzor both being mafia, then this just further incriminates him more as he voted for townie in both situations (when he voted for xtfftc, at the time it looked like xtfftc or Mig was going to be lynched). There will be more about Mig and Rayzor later in this post.
2) Dodging Responses. We must be very wary of the BrownBear, because just when you think you have him cornered he barrel rolls to the side and escapes up a tree! Let's observe two of the instances where is dodging is suspect: + Show Spoiler +On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 03:21 supersoft wrote:
no. Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game. Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit. Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space. So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared. And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth. But I want to see a better case from you regardless. Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point? We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way. I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 06:52 BrownBear wrote:On August 20 2011 04:05 Palmar wrote:On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote:
I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth. Here you go: On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote:
If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive? Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people? I asked for something of substance and this is what I got? Oh, you. Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths. What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it. I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion. That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho. So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder. ##Vote: JeeJee The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 09:55 BrownBear wrote:
It's cute that you tell everyone I'm wrong without explaining exactly why I'm wrong.
lern2backupyouraccusations Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: Show nested quote +So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear. Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear This is Palmar's accusation of BrownBear day 1. I will say right now that Palmar's accusation is a bit iffy as I feel like he's stretching points to make ends meet. But as a whole, he brings up some good points about BrownBear deflecting discussion away from himself and DropBear. When I first read this post I was a bit intrigued. My initial response was "lol okay Palmar...whatever you say" but upon closer reading there are valid points that need to be addressed. And how does our BrownBear respond? Take a look: On August 21 2011 01:23 BrownBear wrote:
Lol Palmar? Keep trying to twist my words bro, it's getting you nowhere. You have no credibility with town right now, and you really only have yourself to blame.
Just give it up. Your crusade against bears has failed.
Switching my vote to Sevryn because that deadline's looming, and he's got the most votes right now. Of course, why should he respond when he knows that things he say might incriminate him more? I will give him some benefit of the doubt in that it is Palmar, but long accusation posts in which there was a clear attempt of effort put in need to be taken seriously. I'm interested in why BrownBear even chose to respond in the first place. VisceraEyes has called me mafia twice after I claimed the hit and roleblock, and I ignored him. Why? Frankly because it's VisceraEyes and I don't think he's serious. I figured that if I responded it would only clutter up the thread and lead to an argument. But BrownBear chooses to respond to Palmar with clutter, basically telling him "go home bro". Another dodge which I overlooked for a long while is this conversation I had with him: On August 22 2011 12:33 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote:Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us  Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him. It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets? Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night? On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote:
Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive. Dodge much? Why wouldn't you answer that question and instead choose to immediately defend himself? All he had to do was say "chaoser" or "jackal" or "maybe chaos13 or DropBear or Curu". Or he could have easily taken what Curu said: "Foolishness, I don't think it means anything; plenty of people know about your history, and it's easy to find out from the mafia quiz. Frankly I could see almost anyone roleblocking and hitting you at once, especially if they couldn't agree on a better target". That's a very pro-town response (what Curu wrote) because it's honest and considering alternate possibilities to a situation. But yet, BrownBear chooses to claim innocence. It's almost like if you caught a 5 year old stealing cookies and then asked him "who do you think stole the cookies?" and he immediately responds "I didn't do it!".
ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE VISCERAEYES PLEASE STOP READING HERE AND CONTINUE TO THE SUMMARY AT THE BOTTOM. THE NEXT SECTION IS ALL ABOUT BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AND "META", OF WHICH YOU CLAIM MEANS NOTHING IN TERMS OF FINDING MAFIAThis quote will lead into my last point: On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote:Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him. It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets? First I want to address his "meta builds a pretty shit argument", because I honestly think he knows better than that. He's been around for a while now and plays a pretty mean game of mafia. Secondly, he's reasonably sure that I'm townie though. Nothing to say about that. He asks me about potential lynch targets. Of course I have potential lynch targets, everyone does. We all know that it's at this post chaoser and I voted for Mig. I was pleased for him to say this because I thought he was on my side. I believed he would listen to what I say and auto vote with me with simple logic: "well Foolishness is 99% confirmed. Foolishness is known for hunting mafia, particularly lurkers. If he says person X is mafia, person X is probably mafia". Boy was I in for a surprise. 3) Failure to comment about Mig.For those that haven't figured it out yet, I deliberately laid a trap for the mafia day 2. I was very certain that Mig was mafia after chaoser's initial accusation so I decided to vote for Mig and go afk. I knew chaoser was going to be afk soon based on his posting schedule as well. What's the trap? Assume for a minute that Mig is mafia (just go with it for a second here, I'll comment about this assumption later on). Mafia won't let one of their own die day 2, so at some point we can either expect someone to come in and help defend Mig OR for the topic to derail and shift the focus on a townie. And the latter is what happened. At the beginning of the day everyone was discussing Mig and quite a few people were on board with chaoser and I. This is reflected in the fact that 3 others voted for Mig in this time. What happened then? Hours upon hours later, Mig was just a secondary topic to the newfound suspect: xtfftc. Attention shifted to xtfftc and it was immediately clear to me that Mig was probably not going to get lynched because everyone just kinda forgot about him. Now it's what happened in between that's very important. Mig correctly pointed out in his defense, "If I'm mafia, why has nobody come in to defend me? Am I so bad that the mafia team has left me to die?" A valid point, but he brings this up multiple times (which I believe is an indication he's mafia, but this is about BrownBear). Now I didn't comment on this at the time, but the mafia did not need to defend Mig because they distracted the town with a different target: xtfftc. I advise you all to reread day 2 if you have the time. When you do, you will notice that there are a handful of people who refuse to comment about Mig. This is important. Why, as a townie, would you ignore one of the most prominent lynch suspects for the day? Multiple people wanted to kill Mig, why would you disregard that and shift focus elsewhere? This is precisely what mafia did, and this is why I was sure xtfftc was town. Since nobody was defending Mig, I knew attention would shift to another candidate and the mafia would run with that. Here is the list of people that never voiced their opinion about Mig: BrownBear, RayzorFlash, Hiro Protagonist, Vain. A few people half ignored the Mig but not to the same extent as the above four. I jotted down their names as well: Barundar, Erandorr, Greymist (who is now Insert_Freq). This is why I was okay with the Hiro lynch yesterday, because he was on the top of the list. And no, before you say, I'm not claiming that these lists are perfect and that I've found the entire mafia team. But I bet that there's at least 3 mafia in these 7 people, and my guess is it's BrownBear, Rayzor, and Barundar. With Mig as mafia that's 4 mafia I found. This is why I was adamant about killing Mig. If he flips red I guarantee there are mafia in those lists I just wrote. This is also why I kept telling people to look at the big picture and put the pieces together. Everything fits together perfectly. Mig is mafia, he uses the "why is nobody defending me" in his defense because he knows the mafia is deliberately shifting town focus onto someone else (xtfftc). The people who are doing that are most likely those who aren't voicing their opinion about Mig. Mig acts like he's helpless and nobody is on his side (anyone else ever notice how concise his defense posts are?) Remember that this is mafia, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit together in an arbitrary manner. I know some of you will probably say that I'm just throwing together random happenings and this is all just coincidence, but I encourage you to go reread any mafia game upon seeing the mafia list. It will be immediately clear why those people were mafia and how they were all linked together in the process. That's why I am able to say the things I've been saying with such certainty. I found the big picture and the majority of the pieces that go with it. For those that aren't convinced Mig is mafia, at the very least this shows that BrownBear is not willing to comment on big town issues. Why is he blatantly ignoring all posts against the person with the highest or second highest vote count? Why does he refuse to comment about him? Simple, BrownBear does not care about the town, nor does he care about who's getting lynched. The only other explanation is that he is so convinced that xtfftc is mafia that he cannot focus about anyone else. Based on his posting history we can all agree that's not going to be true. If you don't believe me, go filter BrownBear's posts and ctfl + f 'Mig'. He only mentions his name in passing "looks like Mig or xtfftc is getting lynched today". No discussion about whether Mig might be mafia or not. Note: this next part is important. Take a look at BrownBear's post when I posted the 'trap card' meme: On August 25 2011 05:58 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 05:48 Curu wrote:
BrownBear doesn't have a single original post or opinion after the throwaway on JeeJee. Yeah you post a wall of text everyday, but it's a post-by-post analysis on one single person. You criticize Palmar for tunnelvision but look at yourself dude, except you don't even seem interested in trying to push your one tunneled person while Palmar is actually trying to get them lynched.
How is deciding I think xtfftc is scum, posting analysis on him, then reading everyone else's analysis, deciding mine's still better, and sticking to it tunnelvision? Are you saying the arguments against hiro were correct? Sure, some of them had merit, but in the end I thought the case against him was extremely weak, and my case was better. Mig's got a stronger case, I wouldn't mind him as a lynch target tomorrow, but I'm still gonna be pushing xtfftc until a better candidate comes along. That's not tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is when you're argument against someone boils down to: 1. He's scum because he called me out on my scummy behavior (classic OMGUS btw) 2. He's scum because I think he is. And then posting one-liners all game along the lines of "Let's lynch Player X" while offering NOTHING ELSE constructive. What you call "not being interested in pushing your case" is actually me just being drowned out by a metric buttload of spam. Also, I really don't see how Palmar is trying to get me lynched - or even really trying in this game anymore. He basically ragequit with this little gem: Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 01:11 Palmar wrote:
Yeah I know.
I'm generally active, but not like I've been this game. Thing is, I don't yet know how to convince an unresponsive town without PMs. This is the first time as town where I want to be listened to and get completely ignored. In all those games I've played recently I've had my way, and town has done very well for it.
For some reason, mafia influenced or not, this town is different than others. People here refuse to listen to reason, and lynch based on what, but not on how. The ridiculousness reached new heights when people started accusing me of being scum for the crime of being right.
I'll take a step back, I think I've made my thoughts pretty clear, I've built my cases and submitted my reads. The rest of you can do what you wish with them, I'm not posting unless necessary now. (ps don't ragequit yet Palmar, I know you can actually play this game, and if you drop the tunnel and cut the spam, you can really help town win. We still have a very real chance at turning this around, but we need active players like you to help!) That is the first (yes, the first) time BrownBear has voiced an opinion about Mig. And what is the first thing he said? "Mig's got a [strong] case against him". Wow, how convenient for you to say that considering YOUVE NEVER EVEN SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MIG IN THE PAST 72 HOURS! And now all of a sudden you think the case against him is good? Where were you when chaoser was accusing him, or when Mig and I were going back and forth? You were definitely here because you were posting in the thread. Nevermind I can answer that for you: you don't care about the town (and that's regardless if Mig is mafia or not). I imagine that BrownBear must have an expression on his face similar to this: ![[image loading]](http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSHeegYwUBROhwjZCHlU6XVMa7kXciHG3Vi4kw41yJROpRA2COc)
I have now provided all the necessary information needed. As a town, you now have the tools to hunt the BrownBear and prevent him from escaping. Together, united, you can capture the BrownBear and once again bring peace to our town! SUMMARYJimminy Christmas that was long. Let's recap on everything I have said since I know there's bound to be a few people who are too lazy to read through all of this: 1) BrownBear is mafia2) BrownBear's vote posts are just restating already said arguments. He's never voiced his own opinion. Furthermore he never pushes who he's voting for. He makes his vote post, then spams one liners. 3) BrownBear has been extremely dodging and defense. He flat out refuses to respond to Palmar even with Palmar writes something good. He is very insistent that he is innocent. 4) BrownBear has refused to say anything with regards to Mig (until just now). If he was town he would be sure to voice his opinion on one of the top lynch candidates. He does not care about the town and this is evident because he has ignored the case against Mig. 5) If Mig is mafia, then BrownBear (and a few others) implicitly defended him by purposely switching town focus onto xtfftc (and then Hiro). They did this by not sharing their opinions about Mig and instead wrote paragraphs about why xtfftc (or Hiro) should have been lynched.
I will still advocate that Mig should be the next lynch. But if you are too put off by his defense then BrownBear must die. On a random note I believe Pyo to be mafia as well. Someone should take a look at him in the near future. I read this in its entirety. I will gladly lynch either one of Mig or BB. Whoever town thinks is most scummy. I think of the two it's BB. I can't wrap my head around Mig yet...going back to reread the cases against him again. As I recall they were heavily based on meta. But unfortunately I admittedly hardly ever return to previous games to check the validity of meta statements unless I was in the game personally. Call it an investment of time I'm not willing to make in most cases. I'm going to do so and return further informed.
This is another very important post, again in context of all the others.
VE uses a false dichotomy to insinuate that only one of BB/Mig can be mafia. He then suggests a willingness to bandwagon (perhaps to stay under the radar) by saying that he'll simply vote for whoever the town thinks is mafia. Well...why not vote for who you think is scum?
He suspects BB, but then never actually votes him. He also never gives a reason for suspecting BB, despite having tunneled Palmar forever and a half for that exact reason.
That's about it, which brings me to my last point: like nard, Pyo, and whoever remain of mafia (other than bum) VE has been really lurkery. He posts very little and contributes very little. On its own it doesn't really mean much, but in combination with all the little tiny things, I think it's important to keep in mind. Again, I'm leaning mafia on VE; I'm fairly confident of my read, but I'm not certain. I'm not certain he's mafia like I'm certain nard and bum are.
Clarifications coming up.
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Alright, the reply to Barundar's post that I only kinda touched on before:
On August 29 2011 16:43 Barundar wrote:
Wherebugsgo, you are putting way too much into the vote of a suspect. We have a red check from a sane DT, that alone is reason enough to lynch Vain, regardless of where others put their vote. Smart scum knows that newbies pay a lot of attention to other suspects actions, and as scum I've successfully scared off people from voting on my scumbuddy, simply by being suspicious and voting with shady enough reasons. If the quotes you have listed would have hinted at DT checking Vain the night before chaoser's claim, there might have been something to your framer theory, but now it's just null.
I value your opinion, but I think this is irrelevant to my argument about bum's posting behavior.
If you have a problem with my notion that bum is the framer that's fine, I expected that to be really controversial. In fact, if people started believing it I'd be really freaking shocked. Just remember that I care about the manner of posts, not necessarily all of their content.
Finally, it was obvious to all of us that vain has been a suspect for a long time. In fact, it hasn't even been that long since I myself was convinced that he was mafia. The thing is, I'm not anymore, and I'm pretty sure I'm alone in that department (which is fine with me, I have my reasons for believing he is innocent.) However, can we actually come up with objective reasons why vain is mafia? I tried, and when I tried writing analysis on vain I realized that most of my reasons would just be "this sounds scummy." This is the same reason I never wrote analysis on Palmar and super, and accepted that they were town. This is the same reason I backtracked on xt following his defense, and because of hiro's and sevryn's lynch on the subjective basis that they were scummy, I have tried to learn the lesson of, just because someone "appears" scummy doesn't mean they are. There needs to be an established intent, and I don't think you can actually establish a town OR mafia intent with vain. He's just full of dumbtells, not scumtells.
On August 29 2011 16:43 Barundar wrote:
If you want to be productive you can start discussing what target to go after once Nard and Vain are dead. Personally I'm the most certain of Bumatlarge being scum, simply because BB post an analysis of xttffc, without commenting on mig at all, and afterwards completely ignored Mig posting his DB analysis, despite popping into the thread to drop a comment to Foolishness. Mig didn't bother yelling at him either to consider his case. Bum saying that BB's actions makes perfect sense without even reading the thread doesn't do much to change this opinion.
If any of these players flip town we're fucked. Since you and a lot of the rest of us are almost certain bum is mafia, let's kill him tomorrow instead of vain. Remember that only two people have ever defended vain; myself, and foolish. Mafia haven't even soft defended him. This is NOT true of either Mig, nard, or bum, which we can agree have been among our best suspects. Obviously Mig was scum, nard will flip red, and bum I'll give near certainty.
On August 29 2011 16:43 Barundar wrote:
After bum I'm the most suspicious of Pyo for hardcore lurking.
For the last scum I'm a bit uncertain:
Kurumi did the capitalized Y in his claim, making me suspicious about him. I had him as town before though, simply because I think Palmar dieing was detrimental to Mig's push for chaos13 the day he got lynched, and because a scum vigi wouldn't feel the need to claim that he shot a townie.
RayzorFlash, because of Mig's chaoser push day 1 when he became a lynch target, and a couple of really bad posts.
Other mild suspects includes:
Errandorr because I simply can't read him. He seem to not have been afraid to give his opinions though, making me lean town on him.
Navillus for lurking hard after starting out well day 1. Could have been simply scared away by the spam though.
Agreed with almost everything here, except that I will say that I have strong town read on Errandor, and a back and forth read on Navillus. Also, since I think vain is not scum I'm fairly certain the 3 mafia can be found within these five: Rayzor, Kurumi, Pyo, Viscera, Navillus.
I remember that people said that Navillus is probably town, and I'm willing to believe that. If that's true (we can confirm it over the next couple days) then we have 3 mafia among 4 people.
On August 29 2011 23:44 Vain wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2011 23:41 Barundar wrote:
Mind giving us the rest of your reads vain, as well as your role text? There, But i could have gotten this from anyone so it doesn't really say anything. Or be creative like kurumi:p + Show Spoiler +Liquidite - Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Lance, the local professional starcraft 2 player, your user name is Legion, and you are a member of the well reputed team IM, as IMLegion, you have no special powers, however you will use your tactical genius and gosu micro to vote for scum and bring down the mafia.
i would but i won't because i gotta eat & run. Be back in 3 hours though[/QUOTE]
Post your reads, you're not helping anyone with this kind of defense, and especially not yourself.
On August 30 2011 01:31 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 00:02 wherebugsgo wrote:
No, actually, if we want to be productive we can't kill vain, especially not tomorrow. We kill nard today, and Bum tomorrow. That will give us sufficient information to find the remaining 3 mafia and lynch them.
Also, I did consider that vain could be a regular goon but that doesn't add up to me. Even if vain is actually just a goon we still should kill bum before vain.
Of the remaining mafia, I agree that Pyo is a top suspect, but also Viscera. My analysis of viscera will come after I get out of class today-it's not complicated.
#6 is still a bit far away. So, we can worry about the last 1/2 mafia after we lynch nard and bum.
Right now you're completely being irrational. We have no idea what the mafia's motives are and we have no real way of figuring it out. You're approaching the entire situation already assuming bumatlarge is mafia and then trying to fit everything around it. You went so far as to throw away your own (very valid I might add) opinions on vain. You're looking at everything with bum-tinted-glasses and this is exactly what foolishness DIDN'T want to do.
I value your opinion as well, but I respectfully disagree. I don't have a problem with you not being able to see what I see, but my argument as to why bumatlarge is not me assuming he's mafia. I'm screaming that he's the framer so that we don't make a huge mistake and fuck up by lynching vain, today OR tomorrow. We need to lynch bumatlarge, framer or not he's going to flip red.
And yes, I did pretty much throw my opinions on vain out the window, and there they will remain until we've lynched bum tomorrow.
On August 30 2011 01:31 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +As Mig pointed out, I was hesitant today to respond to Mig's posts because I feel like I cannot objectively read them. Anything I read of Mig's I just see the mafia in him. But other people (particularly Curu and wherebugsgo) have been able to analyze his arguments today without the subjectivity that I have, and they still want to kill Mig. That's all the proof I need that Mig is the correct lynch choice today.
Sure, Foolishness said that. I admit that I have a bias against bum. However, Foolishness also said that he didn't think vain was mafia as recently as yesterday. The fact that he said that right before he died gave me pause and I thought pretty hard about it. A certain series of events almost entirely centered on page 92, that I thought about for a bit, led me to agree with Foolish's conclusion about vain. Bum's vote on vain confirmed it to me.
Foolish quotes:
On August 27 2011 13:18 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On August 27 2011 13:15 wherebugsgo wrote:On August 21 2011 10:38 Foolishness wrote:
Can someone remind me tomorrow that we should kill Vain? That was before I was really gunning for Mig though. I'm not ruling him out yet, I just think we have better targets at the moment. He's definitely someone to keep an eye on.
On August 28 2011 10:55 Foolishness wrote:
nard is 100% mafia. If I die it will be instantly clear how I know this information.
Yes it's 100%. I wanted to bring this information up yesterday but the timing never came, especially after Mig claimed. It should be clear why I had everyone write up what they thought about those 3 people. Make sure to look at the people who didn't respond to that (there are a few who did, and they are all on my suspect list). Kill nard today so that the mafia will have their KP reduced.
Mafia list: nard, BrownBear, Barundar, Pyo, RayzorFlash. If one of those flip green then Erandorr.
Note that vain is not in that list. Even, he says, if one flips green, he thinks it's Erandor. IMO, Barundar would flip green, so cross him out, and I think Erandorr would flip green to. I replaced Barundar with Viscera.
On August 30 2011 01:31 chaoser wrote:
You need to step back and re-approach the situation. What are you takes on supersoft, xtfftc, and Pyo?
Supersoft is town. I thought that, at a moment where I was raging pretty hard, that Palmar and supersoft were scumbuddies for the way they were playing off each other and insisting that it was obvious hiro and sev were town etc. etc. Then I calmed down a bit, reread their posts and saw nothing objectively scummy. Of course, I felt really stupid after, (sorry super hahaha) and even moreso when mafia killed Palmar.
xt, again, one of those players I used to suspect, I think he's clean as well. His defense of himself appeared fairly genuine to me and it didn't seem like he was trying to hide any information from the town. He doesn't post much, but he puts himself out there confidently, like a townie would do.
Pyo is lurking pretty hard. I've thought he could be mafia for a while. I'm pretty certain he's mafia, and I called him out (if I remember correctly) a couple times to provoke him into posting. Clearly that didn't work. I can't divine the future but I'd say he's my top choice to lynch after bum.
On August 30 2011 02:12 bumatlarge wrote:LOL I was town in personality, I got framed by the mafia so that I popped scum. Look at the end game posts.
My mistake, I see that now. I guess I don't really have any meta to compare you to, then :p
On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:
I thought I was the only one seeing this shit. wherebugsgo decides X is mafia/town, and then takes every post that player has made and turns it into pro-scum/pro-town, whichever serves his preconceived notions. You don't decide a player's alignment and then build a case around that, you do it the other way around. Sometimes it's hard to look at things objectively when you go into an analysis thinking someone is scum (I was going to post a "supersoft is scum" analysis and while rereading all his posts realised that he wasn't as confirmed scum as I thought going into the analysis), but all your TL;DR analyses read like tunneling/scum painting to me. :\
Sorry, what? Like I told Barundar and chaoser, I value your opinion and I'm completely fine if you disagree with my methods or my conclusion that bum is a framer. Yes, I'm tunneling bum. That's my method. There's nothing wrong (IMO) with tunneling someone, especially when it forces them to commit a ton of mistakes.
My goal over the past day has been to provocate bum (and potentially whoever else I've correctly guessed are mafia) to force him to post more.
I don't "decide" someone is mafia, and then super analyze them. I read the posts of my suspects, I read other players' analyses, and I see if I can find anything that supports or refutes their or my opinions. Sometimes such "examples" are just townies being dumb. Sometimes, it's hard to identify what is the hallmark of a dumb townie, and what's the hallmark of a mafia being scummy.
Yes, I have been wrong. Yes, I have been wrong a lot in this game. I was wrong about Sevryn, I was wrong about hiro, I was wrong about xt, I was (briefly) wrong about Palmar and super. The only players of this list I wrote serious analysis about were xt and hiro; hiro, we all thought was scum. Xt was a main mafia-influenced target when Mig was on the chopping block on the same day we lynched hiro.
Also, I too thought super and palmar were scum, remember? I was going to do the same thing you were going to do (post about super) and then I reread his posts and saw nothing objective to analyze in them. I don't post about a player unless I actually straight up have a case for them, and I am not fabricating anything.
Is that fair?
Now, critically, I believe now that I was also wrong about vain.
HOWEVER, I do NOT believe I was/am wrong about bum, about the scumread I've had since his predecessor was playing.
On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:
I've had this bad gut feeling about you all game long, but then you also contribute A LOT, which threw me off. But after the nard and bum flips play out I'm definitely looking at you again. Your massive posts are daunting, but perhaps that was your plan to deter people from analyzing them -.- I haven't read any of your cases and thought, "Hmmm, yes I really like what this guy is saying!".
I invite you to analyze me if you have a gut feeling about me. You yourself said that I should be operating on objective grounds (which, other than perhaps the framer bit, I am. In fact, even the accusation of bum being a framer isn't necessarily me acting on my feelings, it's also part of my tunneling to get mafia out in the open)
And again, I don't care whether or not you like my style of play. All I care is that we kill mafia.
On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:
12 Town vs 5 Mafia, "BUT WE STILL HAVE WORK TO DO", as if we're on our way to winning. 12v5 is a terrible situation for us.
I don't understand how me highlighting our (dire) situation of being only 12 against 5 and saying that we have to do things perfectly is a suggestion that we're on our way to winning.
We can't win unless we play perfectly, that's why I'm being so fervent about killing bum tomorrow and not vain.
On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:"BE CAUTIOUS" you say. Then in the very same post you say, "DONT DOUBT YOURSELVES". Lolwut?
That's my own dumb fault. I made a wrong decision.
My intention of saying "don't doubt yourselves" was to prevent ourselves from wasting time on things that don't mean anything, but clearly I've been responsible for some of the recent muck. I'll own up to that, that's my problem.
On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:
Vain is Mafia turns in to Vain is 100% town and bum is framing him, based off of nothing really. BB/bum is almost certain to be lynched next, your massive analysis was overkill. But it had a purpose: To save Vain. Mafia can vote for other mafia mate, especially if nard/bum is more important than Vain.
Really need to see these people flip and go from there.
Yes, actually, my intention IS to save vain, because I think he is town. That's clear, isn't it? Lynch bum instead of vain tomorrow, then we can move on to hunting the rest of the scum.
On August 30 2011 02:23 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 02:12 Lucidity wrote:
I thought I was the only one seeing this shit. wherebugsgo decides X is mafia/town, and then takes every post that player has made and turns it into pro-scum/pro-town, whichever serves his preconceived notions. You don't decide a player's alignment and then build a case around that, you do it the other way around. Sometimes it's hard to look at things objectively when you go into an analysis thinking someone is scum (I was going to post a "supersoft is scum" analysis and while rereading all his posts realised that he wasn't as confirmed scum as I thought going into the analysis), but all your TL;DR analyses read like tunneling/scum painting to me. :\
I've had this bad gut feeling about you all game long, but then you also contribute A LOT, which threw me off. But after the nard and bum flips play out I'm definitely looking at you again. Your massive posts are daunting, but perhaps that was your plan to deter people from analyzing them -.- I haven't read any of your cases and thought, "Hmmm, yes I really like what this guy is saying!".
12 Town vs 5 Mafia, "BUT WE STILL HAVE WORK TO DO", as if we're on our way to winning. 12v5 is a terrible situation for us. "BE CAUTIOUS" you say. Then in the very same post you say, "DONT DOUBT YOURSELVES". Lolwut?
Vain is Mafia turns in to Vain is 100% town and bum is framing him, based off of nothing really. BB/bum is almost certain to be lynched next, your massive analysis was overkill. But it had a purpose: To save Vain. Mafia can vote for other mafia mate, especially if nard/bum is more important than Vain.
Really need to see these people flip and go from there. So you're going to sit back and let him get away with doing this after nailing it on the head dude? If nard is scum and I get lynched tomorrow it will be at 7v4 when the next kills roll in, and even if we lynch vain>WBG right after, it will be 3v2 which is VERY difficult for town to win in. You can't wait to see flips at this point you have think it all out like you just did and act.
Everyone should read this post by bum.
On August 30 2011 03:38 Varpulis wrote:Show nested quote +On August 30 2011 03:30 Vain wrote:On August 30 2011 03:18 Barundar wrote:
I asked for scum reads. Way to easy for mafia to give town reads. Sucks i can't just magically make scum appear. If i'm scum you want all reads you can get. If i turn out town you don't get any information from my town or scum reads. It's the reasoning behind the reads that seperates the scum from town. Now the next time when you feel to call someone out just close teamliquid and take a break. There was nothing in your post that asked for scumreads reads mean scumreads. townreads are beyond useless, unless you're discussing a lynch candidate who you believe to be town. this post literally SCREAMS scum. Especially the bolded part. yes we do, we get the opinions of somebody we know the alignment of, which is impossible while you're alive. You've claimed that you're town, so why don't you go about proving it? Scumhunt, weigh in on suspects, DO SOMETHING. Also, telling people not to call people out is bad. Really bad. WBG, read this post, and tell me if he's town that got framed. I seriously can't believe how you think that, especially after reading posts like this.
I've read it. Vain just kinda posts like that, just as hiro and sevryn posted like that too.
Town play this game has been really shitty. I played pretty shittily the first couple days especially.
We have more time to get stuff out of vain, though I am convinced he is town, I'm open to suggestions AFTER tomorrow, since we should lynch bum tomorrow. I need more time. You dig?
On August 30 2011 04:06 RayzorFlash wrote:
Sorry, havent read much of thread since last night of kills... Did whoever was saved last night come out yet? Or Did mafia actually only kill 2 people :s
So far, seems like Nard is the leading candidate, and one of either vain or bugs is scum. I think Nard will be the best pick because foolishness clearly knew for SURE that he was scum.
Therecan still be doubts about chaosers claim sinceit COULD be mafia trying to cause a mislynch especially based on the timing that he revealed himself. It seemed like prime time for scum to tey and draw attention away from nard so they get another night of 3 KP which would give us nearly no room for error... Theres a way to be sure about it though, if chaoser survives the next night, we know he is scum and lynch him for trying to mislead us. If he doesnt, we know he was right and lynch Vain...
So for tonight,
##Vote: Nard
This guy's probably one of our last 3.
On August 30 2011 04:36 Navillus wrote:
Ahhhhhhh don't modkill me! sorry I had my power go out the day after the hurricane, ok I didn't miss a vote but give me time to catch up, if the night post is like about to happen then
##Vote Brownbear
just so I have a vote in but really I have to read everything from the last day or so.
I get a townread on this vote
On August 30 2011 05:00 Lucidity wrote:
Pay particular attention to:
- Why he believes nard is confirmed scum.
- Why he doubts Vain is scum
- Why he changed from thinking Vain is scum to town
I especially don't understand this first one:
- Why he believes nard is confirmed scum.
Because Foolish said so, 2 wandering townies are dead (making the likelihood of nard being a wanderer almost nill), and even if nard was a wandering townie he'd have to hit a 3/21 chance of visiting a person who died? (I assume Foolish saw this the night before he died) What is so strange about this?
- Why he doubts Vain is scum
It's my opinion. Take it or leave it for now, but please value it for tomorrow, because I'm certain we have a better candidate in bum. Once bum flips scum let's reevaluate. Fair?
- Why he changed from thinking Vain is scum to town
Three reasons, in order of importance:
1. Page 92.
2. Foolishness's opinion.
3. bumatlarge's vote and his responses to me.
Also lucidity, I don't see how posting a lot of content makes me scummy.
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