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TL Mafia XXVII - Page 10

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LuDwig-
Profile Blog Joined February 2007
Italy1143 Posts
June 10 2010 05:00 GMT
#181
Hello guys!
I am sorry but i just wake up..(italy check the tiem zone -___-).
I want to give the welcome to everybody to our city!
I am Detective
(i hope that this plan will work fine or i will be dead really fast..)
i suggest that medic cover my ass
Who should i check first?
I was think to check somebody that declears to be towny to be sure to not be a paranoid!

(ohn?!)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=120015&currentpage=98<--Search the HotBid's Post
Vivi57
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
United States6599 Posts
June 10 2010 05:18 GMT
#182
What makes you think we only have 4 townies this round. You really think there's 7 blues?

We're going to have at most 1 vig, whether its day or night. There's no way we'll have a watcher, tracker, *and* dt. And I wouldn't be surprised if we had 0 hatters and 0 vets.
Flash hwaiting! Nal_rA forever!
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
June 10 2010 05:28 GMT
#183
And there's number two to do the math wrong.

I'm off to sleep. I work now so I won't be around during the day but i'll be back around 8pm est. maybe i'll post tmr morning if i'm not too sleepy.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
June 10 2010 06:25 GMT
#184
On June 10 2010 08:17 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2010 08:14 Vivi57 wrote:
This should be fun.

Also, is lynching an inactive really best? We've done that since forever and people are so used to the strategy that I don't think it'll give us as much in the way of vote lists and voting patterns to analyze.

I say that we make everyone talk then analyze behavior and if someone appears scummy, we shouldn't insta go for the inactive.


That sounds fine but how do you propose we "make" everyone talk. Usually the plan for lynching an inactive on the first day stems from the strategy of making people talk.

Yea....We usually lynch inactives to make people talk. Kinda became a part of the meta game.

On June 10 2010 14:18 Vivi57 wrote:
What makes you think we only have 4 townies this round. You really think there's 7 blues?

We're going to have at most 1 vig, whether its day or night. There's no way we'll have a watcher, tracker, *and* dt. And I wouldn't be surprised if we had 0 hatters and 0 vets.

Ridiculous. A night vig most likely. Maybe even a night one hit.

I'd say the watcher is the more powerful of trackers/watchers/dt's in my opinion. Like what happened to L in the three kingdoms game. Being able to see all visitors is usually very nice, ya know? Prob the vig, most likely a watchers/tracker or watcher/dt (differing sanities?) imo. Definitely a medic (of differing qualities?), and most likely a vet.
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
June 10 2010 06:49 GMT
#185
Alright, well I'm not really opposed to L's plan but I think some of the weaknesses (and outlining some of the inherent strengths) of the plan should be pointed out.

1) If not everyone (hatters and vigi's I'm looking at you) claims as planned then a lot of the info blue roles are at serious risk from red attack and we're basically blind. Also, we might not have any hatters or vigi's although I admit that I put this at low risk. Basically saying that the plan only really works if everyone's on board with it.

2) It puts high pressure on the townies, both from the town and from mafia. They will not only be easy pickings for the mafia, with basically no hope of protection from either hatters, vigi's and medics, but also with the difficulties in claiming blue, the mafia are very likely to hide amongst the townies as well, so the town will be scrutinizing those who claim green pretty severely.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing... but it is a weakness. With "random shit" everyone gets at least a bit of protection from those roles. By concentrating their strength around the blue roles, you also must necessarily deprive elsewhere of them.

3) If our red include some players skilled in behavioral analysis, it will be easy to pick out detectives and their counterparts, from the hatters and vigi's... since there's a relatively small pool to focus on.

Final thoughts... It's a decent plan and works extremely well is some situations... but can also fall apart if people don't cooperate or if there's a blue sniper in the mafia pool.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
June 10 2010 08:12 GMT
#186
L your plan has some flaws.

1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG.
2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day.
3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers.

I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L.
LuDwig-
Profile Blog Joined February 2007
Italy1143 Posts
June 10 2010 08:38 GMT
#187
I was wondering...
Writing down here our roles is quite a dumb thing -___-
I have played only one game and in that game the PM was not allowed (BANG BANG) so I supposed that also in this game PMs were not allowed..
But when i recived a PM 5 minutes ago i check the rules and O.O (<-my expression)
So don't post your role on the thread but PM L!

We have to decide if L can be trustable or not!
If he is townie he can tell us how to move!
But if he is mafia he will get tons of info about townie and their role!

What to do?
A more experienced player can tell me his thoughts?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=120015&currentpage=98<--Search the HotBid's Post
MooCow
Profile Joined September 2008
1434 Posts
June 10 2010 12:00 GMT
#188
With all this talk about DT's vs Watchers vs Trackers and Ludwig claiming to be a DT.
And plans involving DT's etc, aren't DT's a bit useless in this game?

From Incognitos post below there's only a 25% chance we actually get a DT that's not going to give us wrong information.

Ex If we get an actual DT claiming someone is scum and we lynch them and they flip townie, then of course we are going to lynch the DT that told us that information. So the DT is useless because he was a Paranoid DT.

So whoever has a DT role should probably keep their info to themselves until they know which sanity level they are at.
On June 09 2010 13:29 Incognito wrote:
PMing is allowed this game.

Sane DT - is like a regular alignment cop.
Insane DT - alignment cop that gets flipped results
Paranoid DT - Always receives Mafia from checks
Naive DT - Always receives Town from checks

Medic variants removed.

Making history not reliving it.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
June 10 2010 13:07 GMT
#189
On June 10 2010 17:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
L your plan has some flaws.

1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG.
2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day.
3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers.

I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L.

Gotta go to work so only a quick recap:

1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller.

REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious.

2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are.

3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone.

I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
June 10 2010 16:10 GMT
#190
On June 10 2010 22:07 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2010 17:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
L your plan has some flaws.

1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG.
2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day.
3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers.

I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L.

Gotta go to work so only a quick recap:

1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller.

REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious.

2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are.

3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone.

I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them.

I was going to say. Three weak objections as a guise of pretending to be pro-town?

Also, basically we will pretty much die if other people don't start claiming. I mean, the thing with this plan is that if we don't actually follow it all the way through, it's somewhat of an auto-loss, because our blues are exposed, and we still can't figure out where the mafia are.
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
~OpZ~
Profile Blog Joined May 2005
United States3652 Posts
June 10 2010 16:53 GMT
#191
I'm not sure. Usually I agree with the inactive lynch and more discussion, but as Radfield said, inactivity should not be a problem this game. Role claiming usually comes as a last resort? Why would we push for roleclaiming THIS early. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

I'd guess the mafia are planning privately right now. So they probably aren't posting too much. If we're serious about this role claiming, we're giving them a lot to decide. Who claims what, risk/reward type shit.

But since we've had a dt claim we can use him to our advantage. So we must get his sanity established...Do we have him check somebody, and then lynch the person the next day? Just check and hope mafia kills the person? Maybe he's paranoid? Lots of problems come up from this.

I dunno what the best course of action is, I'm not usually that good at coming up with plans for the town.

=(
Maybe I could teach Osama that using a plane as a wraith or dropship would be 10x better than using it as a scourge..... ^^; -Flex
tree.hugger
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
June 10 2010 17:03 GMT
#192
On June 11 2010 01:53 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm not sure. Usually I agree with the inactive lynch and more discussion, but as Radfield said, inactivity should not be a problem this game. Role claiming usually comes as a last resort? Why would we push for roleclaiming THIS early. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

I'd guess the mafia are planning privately right now. So they probably aren't posting too much. If we're serious about this role claiming, we're giving them a lot to decide. Who claims what, risk/reward type shit.

But since we've had a dt claim we can use him to our advantage. So we must get his sanity established...Do we have him check somebody, and then lynch the person the next day? Just check and hope mafia kills the person? Maybe he's paranoid? Lots of problems come up from this.

I dunno what the best course of action is, I'm not usually that good at coming up with plans for the town.

=(

Posts like this, which don't help, say a couple really obvious generic things, and which address what the mafia 'might be doing' while the poster does the opposite...

Red flags?

Mafia list:
A5J
OpZ
ModeratorEffOrt, Snow, GuMiho, and Team Liquid
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
June 10 2010 17:16 GMT
#193
Here's the way I see things right now. Whether you agree with L's plan or not, things have started moving regardless. We have both a DT and Tracker claim, so at this point I think we have a duty to follow along with our roleclaims simply to protect those two. Both tree.hugger and Ludwig strike me as telling the truth.

My guess would be that mafia will roleclaim as 3 townies and 1 blue role, the blue role will likely be claimed near the end. I doubt we have doubles of any role, as there is simply no need with this amount of players, and the number of potential open roles. So any blue-claiming right off the bat is very very risky.

Ludwig, PMing our roles to L is a bad bad idea. PMing our roles to anyone at this point is not smart, simply because there is no way to make a really solid case for someone being pro-town. The downside of picking the wrong person is basically a loss for the town. If we should be PMing anyone, it should be you, as I pretty much take your claim at face value at this point. However, I think public roleclaiming is the best way to go for the moment.

With that being said, I am a Townie and my job is to get shot on the first night. If we have a watcher, I recommend you have a look at me tonight as I have a decent streak going. Of course, it probably makes more sense to watch one of the blue claimers to try and find the roleblocker.

Medic should be protecting tree.hugger or Ludwig at this point, with emphasis on tree.hugger.
Radfield
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada2720 Posts
June 10 2010 17:19 GMT
#194
On June 11 2010 02:03 tree.hugger wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2010 01:53 ~OpZ~ wrote:
I'm not sure. Usually I agree with the inactive lynch and more discussion, but as Radfield said, inactivity should not be a problem this game. Role claiming usually comes as a last resort? Why would we push for roleclaiming THIS early. It's pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

I'd guess the mafia are planning privately right now. So they probably aren't posting too much. If we're serious about this role claiming, we're giving them a lot to decide. Who claims what, risk/reward type shit.

But since we've had a dt claim we can use him to our advantage. So we must get his sanity established...Do we have him check somebody, and then lynch the person the next day? Just check and hope mafia kills the person? Maybe he's paranoid? Lots of problems come up from this.

I dunno what the best course of action is, I'm not usually that good at coming up with plans for the town.

=(

Posts like this, which don't help, say a couple really obvious generic things, and which address what the mafia 'might be doing' while the poster does the opposite...

Red flags?

Mafia list:
A5J
OpZ



I had the same feeling tree.hugger, but I think it's more benificial to let things like this slide in the moment and try to build a case after more posts. No need to point out to potential mafia that they're not doing a good job.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
June 10 2010 17:42 GMT
#195
Well, in a game with pm's we can get a confirmed player pretty fast. We could pm/ coordinate through them, no?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
LuDwig-
Profile Blog Joined February 2007
Italy1143 Posts
June 10 2010 18:05 GMT
#196
Ok this night i will investigated a person that claimed to be townie..I will tell you the result (if i will be still alive) T.T

(doctor love me please)
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=120015&currentpage=98<--Search the HotBid's Post
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
June 10 2010 20:31 GMT
#197
On June 10 2010 22:07 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2010 17:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
L your plan has some flaws.

1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG.
2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day.
3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers.

I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L.

Gotta go to work so only a quick recap:

1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller.

REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious.

2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are.

3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone.

I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them.


Ok my 1) point was wrong, for some reason I had it in my head last night that when you lynch a miller they flip townie, my bad.

For 2), there is also the possibility that the DT is paranoid but town aligned, how do you deal with that?

For 3), the whole point is that we have no idea how many blues there are. I thought you'd be smart enough to get this, but apparently not. What if 1 or 2 mafia infiltrate the blue ranks? If we get suspicious about the inflated blue count and focus all of our attention on the blues, we'll be wasting a ton of lynches and faulty role checks while the mafia are picking blues off. If all 4 mafia go into the blues, we have no way to know whether there are 0,1,2,3, or 4 mafia in the blues. We can only guess, and its too risky to just start lynching blues 1 by 1 in case there really are a lot of blues.

So L posts a clearly risky plan, and when I jump in to criticize the first thing a couple people do is flag me as mafia. GREAT play guys. Also L if you know of flaws then post them so we can work out potential solutions until people jump the gun and start RCing. Besides, if you know your plan had flaws then why did you post it in the first place?

I advise NO ONE to RC until this shit is worked out. L has NOT filled in the details of his plan.
AcrossFiveJulys
Profile Blog Joined September 2005
United States3612 Posts
June 10 2010 20:39 GMT
#198
and yes I'm aware that ludwig~ RC'd detective. now we'll have to figure out what to do about that for the rest of the game. it might not be all bad, since medic can protect him and mafia have only 1 KP.
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7468 Posts
June 10 2010 20:42 GMT
#199
HEY GUYS! I'm here!

OK, I was going to post about how I didn't read the rules of the thread as usual and after skimming the thread I noticed talk about a tracker role.. I would talk about this and be like cool a new role and all BUT there is something bigger to discuss... It is a LEGENDARY Discovery!!

RebirthOfLeGend IS BACK!!!! AND PMs are allowed! I will now enter PM land... I will come back and post inside jokes and hints. And possibly some good input.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7468 Posts
June 10 2010 20:49 GMT
#200
Everyone PM me and talk about anything! riddles are fun..

Now, I shall say something to make this thread active:

This game is dead.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
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