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Braavos36390 Posts
On February 20 2011 13:18 AmiPolizeiFunk wrote:
Interesting. So you'r esaying Adelscott and Fenix, in situations where many of the 6-10 guys place in reverse order, are also at risk? I can buy that. How about Morrow and Ciara? Do you think there's a way that they aren't a lock??
Yes, since theres multiple ways for there to be many players tied at 140, they could theoretically be knocked out in a playoff. It's very unlikely but possible. The only player 100% guaranteed to qualify right now is TLO.
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On February 20 2011 13:18 AmiPolizeiFunk wrote:
Interesting. So you'r esaying Adelscott and Fenix, in situations where many of the 6-10 guys place in reverse order, are also at risk? I can buy that. How about Morrow and Ciara? Do you think there's a way that they aren't a lock??
Lets say this happens Kiwikaki gets in second and gets 100 points moving him up to 166. Strelok and Zeerax place in the semis getting them up to 154 and 165 respectively. Goody gets a ro8 getting him up to 140. Fenix and Adel get a round of 8 moving them up to 152. Morrow makes a round of 16 moving him up to 154.
Kiwi is 1, Zeerax is 2, Strelok and Morrow are 3/4, TLO is 5, Fenix and Adel are 6/7, and Ciara and Goody are 8/9.
So it seems like Hot_Bid said that 140 gets you at least a playoff for the spot in the TSL. Anymore and you are guaranteed a spot and any less and you could make it or you could not depending on how others fair.
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You're right. In a worst case scenario for Ciara and Morrow, it could end up like you said:
1. 170+ 2nd place finisher
2. 165 Zeerax
3. 154 Strelok
4. 151 TLO
5-9. 140 Ciara
5-9. 140 Morrow
5-9. 140 Goody
5-9. 140 Fenix
5-9. 140 Adelscott
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For some reason dKiller is shown as protoss
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Of course, the odds of such a scenario are less than microscopic. Ciara, Morrow, Adelscott and Fenix are virtually guaranteed qualification.
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United States1967 Posts
On February 20 2011 14:28 Exteray wrote:
For some reason dKiller is shown as protoss
fixed
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No North American player in top 8 point rankings and just 2 of them won a direct qualifier. Looks like we will have more Koreans in TSL than US/Canadian players. Nice to see that there is a good chance that at least one South American Player will make it in.
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YEEES Morrow has good chance of going to TSL3 :D awesome!
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On February 20 2011 13:49 AmiPolizeiFunk wrote:
You're right. In a worst case scenario for Ciara and Morrow, it could end up like you said:
1. 170+ 2nd place finisher
2. 165 Zeerax
3. 154 Strelok
4. 151 TLO
5-9. 140 Ciara
5-9. 140 Morrow
5-9. 140 Goody
5-9. 140 Fenix
5-9. 140 Adelscott
This is correct. Nobody is safe muahaha. 0.0001% chance Morrow doesn't qualify.
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Congrats to Morrow for qualifying  . Now I really hope that Select can get enough points together to go through if its possible. He needs 2nd or better doesn't he?
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Select will probably be fine with a 3rd-4th place finish too.
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i hope a zerg will win the next tournament, gogo morrow
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
On February 20 2011 20:20 Liquid`Nazgul wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2011 13:49 AmiPolizeiFunk wrote:
You're right. In a worst case scenario for Ciara and Morrow, it could end up like you said:
1. 170+ 2nd place finisher
2. 165 Zeerax
3. 154 Strelok
4. 151 TLO
5-9. 140 Ciara
5-9. 140 Morrow
5-9. 140 Goody
5-9. 140 Fenix
5-9. 140 Adelscott
This is correct. Nobody is safe muahaha. 0.0001% chance Morrow doesn't qualify.
But you are incorrect! TLO is 100% safe now. There are only four people who can overtake him without making it into the semifinal, and there are only 3 people who can get semifinal/final points (one of the top four will always instantly qualify). That means TLO can drop at most 7 places - ie. he's in!
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wheres incontrol 
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On February 20 2011 13:08 Hot_Bid wrote:
Couldn't this happen:
1. 151 - TLAF-Liquid`TLO
2. 140 - ieS-Ciara
3. 140 - mouz.MorroW
4. 126 - Mill.Adelscott
4. 126 - FnaticMSI.Fenix
6. 114 - ESC.GoOdy +26 (5th-8th)
7. 114 - ZeeRaX +26 (5th-8th)
8. 103 - mouz.Strelok +51 (3rd/4th)
----------------------------------------------------- Qualifier cutoff
9. 79 - Mill.Stephano +51 (3rd/4th)
10. 77 - dignitas.SeleCt +100 (2nd)
10. 77 - FXO.mOoNan WIN (1st)
which would end up
1. 177 Select
2. 154 Strelok
3. 151 TLO
4. 140 Ciara
4. 140 Morrow
4. 140 Goody
4. 140 Zeerax
8. 130 Stephano
------------------------------------------------
9. 126 Adel
10. 126 Fenix
?
Also, if Adel and Fenix finish Ro16 and get +14 each, we could have a potential SIX WAY TIE for five spots 4-8 @ 140 points?
Thus, even Ciara and Morrow's point values aren't 100% safe for qualification.
Ah yes, I forgot that point, 1 sec, I'll modify my post.
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Go Canada!!!
With kiwi, tt1, and dde all within 40 points of breaking 100, I think there´s a reasonable chance that HuK might not be the ONLY Canadian in this tournament. Just need to get one of those guys in the top four and I´ll be a heck of a happy camper.
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On February 21 2011 01:09 Grantler wrote:wheres incontrol
He's way out of the picture.
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I hope TL does another one of those TL Ladder posts, like last week, with the complete break-down.
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Come on Select. You can make it!
On February 20 2011 19:48 TBO wrote:
No North American player in top 8 point rankings and just 2 of them won a direct qualifier. Looks like we will have more Koreans in TSL than US/Canadian players. Nice to see that there is a good chance that at least one South American Player will make it in.
With Tyler, Cruncher, QxC, Idra, and Huk that's still a good representation from NA even if no one else from the USA or Canada makes it.
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Just need TT1 and Kiwikaki to do well in the next Qualifier and I'll be happy!
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EPT
