On February 15 2011 07:31 godemperor wrote:
I think it going to be MVP, MKP, Jinro, NaDa and Boxer, there may be others who play better, but no one draws a large crowd like NaDa and Boxer does.

Agreed & deservingly so.

gakkgakk

Norway902 Posts

February 15 2011 14:39 GMT

#182

On February 14 2011 01:03 {ToT}ColmA wrote:
if they invite thestc i will stop needing porn to jerk off :3

Hells yes! Its a shame he can't play as much as others

BLinD-RawR

ALLEYCAT BLUES49497 Posts

February 15 2011 15:10 GMT

#183

On February 15 2011 23:39 gakkgakk wrote:

Show nested quote +

Hells yes! Its a shame he can't play as much as others

I agree,he has by far the best TvT I have ever seen in SC2,I still remember that Bo3 against clide on Gisado's(star challenge) stream.

sYz-Adrenaline

United States1850 Posts

February 15 2011 22:25 GMT

#184

Seeing a pattern here with the winners of the Open.. .hm... go Ukraine?

Klogon

MURICA15980 Posts

February 16 2011 02:53 GMT

#185

Just noticed the pattern too haha

Nick_54

United States2230 Posts

February 16 2011 22:15 GMT

#186

On February 16 2011 07:25 sYz-Adrenaline wrote:
Seeing a pattern here with the winners of the Open.. .hm... go Ukraine?

Lol nice find. Strelok's turn?

StarStruck

25339 Posts

February 17 2011 14:30 GMT

#187

I'm leaning towards another Swede.

tree.hugger

Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts

February 17 2011 17:09 GMT

#188

On February 16 2011 11:53 Klogon wrote:
Just noticed the pattern too haha

Hahah, I considered writing about that last week. Notice that it's a terran and a protoss from each country as well. Makes me think that the last two winners will have to be zergs from completely different countries that have red in their flag.

Sobba

Sweden576 Posts

February 20 2011 00:18 GMT

#189

Anyway! This time im sure. TLO cannot miss to qualify. I count a total of 7 players that can overtake him but not 8 so he should have qualified.
Ciara could miss still but that is sooo unlikely.

Froadac

United States6733 Posts

February 20 2011 00:52 GMT

#190

Update now ^^

I want to see what it comes down to with Morrow.

Mindflow

Korea (South)320 Posts

February 20 2011 01:07 GMT

#191

Is it just me or is this going to be one of the sickest tournys EVAR?!??

Nick_54

United States2230 Posts

February 20 2011 01:29 GMT

#192

If I calculated things correctly

1. 151 - (R)

TLO
2. 140 - (Z)

MorroW
2. 140 - (Z)

Ciara
4. 126 - (P)

Adelscott
4. 126 - (T)

Fenix
6. 114 - (P)

ZeeRaX
6. 114 - (T)

GoOdy
8. 103 - (T)

Strelok

-------------------------------------------------------- Qualifier Cutoff

9. 79 - (Z)

Stephano
10. 77 - (T)

SeleCT
10. 77 - (T)

AllAboutYou
12. 68 - (T)

dde
13. 66 - (P)

KiWiKaKi

A bunch of players are tied at 65 including (P)

TT1 now. Hopefully I didnt make a mistake with the calculation just did it really quick for my own enjoyment

AmiPolizeiFunk

Germany804 Posts

February 20 2011 01:33 GMT

#193

Interesting that someone with no points could get 2nd place in Quali #8 and not qualify.

LSB

United States5171 Posts

February 20 2011 01:55 GMT

#194

Points Race

To start off let's look at the 'worst possible scenario' for the top 8
For example, if (T)

SeleCT and (T)

AllAboutYou made it to the RO4 and (Z)

Stephano took 2nd place
1. 179 - (Z)

Stephano
2. 151 - (R)

TLO
3. 140 - (Z)

MorroW
3. 140 - (Z)

Ciara
5. 128 - (T)

SeleCT
5. 128 - (T)

AllAboutYou
7. 126 - (P)

Adelscott
7. 126 - (T)

Fenix
From this we can see that the top 5 spots will belong to the people currently in the top eight

Right now, we can divide the qualifiers into three groups

Guaranteed qualifiers
1. 151 - (R)

TLO
2. 140 - (Z)

MorroW
2. 140 - (Z)

Ciara
This is because the 'worst possible scenario' for the top 8, would be 2 people in the top 13 making it to the RO4, and 1 Person in the top 30 making it to the RO2. There would be no way for these three to be displaced (well there is a way, see below, but I bet you a billion esports dollars that it won't happen)

2/5 guaranteed qualified
4. 126 - (P)

Adelscott
4. 126 - (T)

Fenix
6. 114 - (P)

ZeeRaX
6. 114 - (T)

GoOdy
8. 103 - (T)

Strelok
Since 5 of the top 8 have their positions guaranteed, these people are fighting for the ability to play in the top eight. If ZeeRaX, GoOdy and Strelock are able to finish RO8 or better, they could potentially knock Adelscott/Fenix off the charts. At the same time remember, these people have a really good chance of qualifying. If the semifinals are full of people who don't already have much points, ZeeRaZ and GoOdy have a good chance of qualifying.

The people shooting for the top
Because this is the last TL-Open qualifier, it's going to be really hard in order to try to crack the top 8, and the list is surprisingly small.
In fact, a RO2 finish might not guarantee you a qualifier spot. You need to already have a good amount of points in order to qualify off of a RO2 finish.

+ Show Spoiler [People who can qualify with a RO4 finish] +

9. 79 -

Mill.Stephano
10. 77 - [image loading]

dignitas.SeleCt
10. 77 - [image loading]

FXO.mOoNan
12. 68 - [image loading]

sixjax.NrG.dde
13. 66 - [image loading]

ROOT.KiWiKaKi
14. 65 -

Empire.Beastyqt
14. 65 - [image loading]

mouz.MaNa
14. 65 - [image loading]

FnaticMSI.TT1
14. 65 - [image loading]

MYM.ClouD
14. 65 -

eSuba.PredY
19. 54 - [image loading]

dignitas.SjoW
20. 52 - [image loading]

mouz.HasuObs
20. 52 - [image loading]

aAa.Nerchio

The messed up case
In fact, there is a way that Ciara and MorroW would have their positions challenged, check it out here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=180961&currentpage=11#204. But we can be pretty sure this isn't going to happen. This requires that 5 specific people make it into the top eight from a pool of possibly every single programmer trying to fight for first.

I would like to congratulate TLO, Morrow, Ciara, they all deserve it.

TemplarCo.

Mexico2870 Posts

February 20 2011 02:33 GMT

#195

Damn this point cualifiers are getting tense this last TLOpen will be intense!!

Hot_Bid

Braavos36370 Posts

February 20 2011 03:40 GMT

#196

On February 20 2011 10:55 LSB wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Points Race
Right now, we know that these players have qualified.
1. 151 - (R)

TLO
2. 140 - (Z)

MorroW
2. 140 - (Z)

Ciara
4. 126 - (P)

Adelscott
4. 126 - (T)

Fenix

This is because the 'worst possible scenario' for the top 8, would be 2 people in the top 13 making it to the RO4, and 1 Person in the top 30 making it to the RO2.

For example, if (T)

SeleCT and (T)

AllAboutYou made it to the RO4 and (Z)

Stephano took 2nd place, the top 8 would look like
1. 179 - (Z)

Stephano
2. 151 - (R)

TLO
3. 140 - (Z)

MorroW
3. 140 - (Z)

Ciara
5. 128 - (T)

SeleCT
5. 128 - (T)

AllAboutYou
7. 126 - (P)

Adelscott
7. 126 - (T)

Fenix

I would like to congratulate TLO, Morrow, Ciara, Adelscott and Fenix in making the TSL, they all deserve it.

Race distribution of TSL 3
Right now, 9

, 9

, 1

have qualified. This means that the matchups will be varied, unlike IEM. I'm looking forward to this

I don't think this is correct. Fenix and Adel are not 100% qualified. I don't even think Morrow and Ciara are 100% qualified.

edit: I edited your post in case a player believes it's true and doesn't play next week.

AmiPolizeiFunk

Germany804 Posts

February 20 2011 03:49 GMT

#197

I think he's right actually. Only players in the top4 of Quali#8 can catch them. Anybody who takes 5th and beyond will not win enough points to take their seats, which means there will be a maximum of 3 new people (or 4 if one of the top 8 actually wins the tournament) to be points qualifiers.

Seats at risk:
6. 114 - (T)ESC.GoOdy
7. 114 - (P)ZeeRaX
8. 103 - (T)mouz.Strelok

If someone in the top 8 does not win Quali#8, I also think we can safely say that only these players:
9. 79 - (Z)Mill.Stephano
10. 77 - (T)dignitas.SeleCt
10. 77 - (T)FXO.mOoNan
have a chance by placing 5th-8th (26 points to catch Strelok at 103) or better. Anybody below them will have to make the final 4 to qualify.

Now if somebody in the top 8 right now actually wins the tournament, the cut-off bar will drop a whopping 24 points, so a few more people will have the chance to to sneak in by making the Ro8.

Hot_Bid

Braavos36370 Posts

February 20 2011 04:08 GMT

#198

Couldn't this happen:

1. 151 - TLAF-Liquid`TLO
2. 140 - ieS-Ciara
3. 140 - mouz.MorroW
4. 126 - Mill.Adelscott
4. 126 - FnaticMSI.Fenix
6. 114 - ESC.GoOdy +26 (5th-8th)
7. 114 - ZeeRaX +26 (5th-8th)
8. 103 - mouz.Strelok +51 (3rd/4th)

----------------------------------------------------- Qualifier cutoff

9. 79 - Mill.Stephano +51 (3rd/4th)
10. 77 - dignitas.SeleCt +100 (2nd)
10. 77 - FXO.mOoNan WIN (1st)

which would end up

1. 177 Select
2. 154 Strelok
3. 151 TLO
4. 140 Ciara
4. 140 Morrow
4. 140 Goody
4. 140 Zeerax
8. 130 Stephano
------------------------------------------------
9. 126 Adel
10. 126 Fenix

?

Also, if Adel and Fenix finish Ro16 and get +14 each, we could have a potential SIX WAY TIE for five spots 4-8 @ 140 points?

Thus, even Ciara and Morrow's point values aren't 100% safe for qualification.

AmiPolizeiFunk

Germany804 Posts

February 20 2011 04:18 GMT

#199

Interesting. So you'r esaying Adelscott and Fenix, in situations where many of the 6-10 guys place in reverse order, are also at risk? I can buy that. How about Morrow and Ciara? Do you think there's a way that they aren't a lock??

FlashIsHigh

United States474 Posts

February 20 2011 04:33 GMT

#200

All I know is Kiwikaki deserves to be in this TSL, and im really rooting hard for him. Its gunna be tough as hell tho, especially since Select and Sjow havent qualified. Sjow has been playing bad since his destruction of everyone in the IEM EU finals, but honestly you cant expect a player like him to slump for long. Theres gunna be some ppl qualifying that imo dont deserve a spot, but then I guess its no ones fault but the players themselves if they didnt participate in the qualifiers