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On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/P62Y1Gw/my-image.png) In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.
That's a good one.
Dark way closer do Maru, than Maru is to Serral, as in chamionship's win chances...
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Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
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On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic
Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN
Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem
Tier 4 everyone else
Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?
I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8?
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France12790 Posts
On July 08 2024 23:52 cookinrelaxin wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic
Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN
Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem
Tier 4 everyone else
Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over? I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8?
I think ByuN is a very dangerous opponent for anyone not named Serral, but otoh, given his wrist issues and/or peculiar style, it is highly unlikely for him to win the whole thing. For him to win it would require the stars to align like they did in Oliveira 2023 run imo.
As for Classic, for some reason he manages to overperform offline sometimes / doesn't seem as flashy online as herO, which makes everyone forget about him pretty quickly. The expectations aren't that high so it's likely he'll "overperform" with that many people sleeping on him
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Classic is a special case because I think he can pop off and win a bo7 against anyone. But I don't see him having 30+ builds to carry for the entire event.
The format of this tournament just makes it very difficult for a protoss like him to win. Double elim and a secondary knockout bracket means unless you cruise straight to the final four, you need a bottomless bag of builds.
A protoss like Stats who can play reactive, or herO who's scrappy enough to repeat builds, would have a better shot. Build-smiths aren't made for this kind of events, which is a shame because there's not much money in starleagues or teamleagues in comparison. The best result for Classic is to take out one of the big guys (Serral, Dark, Oliveira, Maru) and then lose to the next one.
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On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.
I agree with this one. In any tournament without Serral I'd want Maru in S, but given their history it's hard to put them in the same tier.
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Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).
anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo
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On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).
anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo
Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt.
Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life
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On July 08 2024 23:57 Poopi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2024 23:52 cookinrelaxin wrote:On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic
Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN
Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem
Tier 4 everyone else
Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over? I kind of get the take about Classic since he popped off at last year's Gamers8, but what makes you confident that ByuN will do better than the customary Ro8? I think ByuN is a very dangerous opponent for anyone not named Serral, but otoh, given his wrist issues and/or peculiar style, it is highly unlikely for him to win the whole thing. For him to win it would require the stars to align like they did in Oliveira 2023 run imo. As for Classic, for some reason he manages to overperform offline sometimes / doesn't seem as flashy online as herO, which makes everyone forget about him pretty quickly. The expectations aren't that high so it's likely he'll "overperform" with that many people sleeping on him
Unless I missed it in GSL (I didn't watch everything) I feel like it's been a while since ByuN got wrist issues no?
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On July 09 2024 01:26 Blitzball04 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).
anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt. Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life
Clem has shown he can do it, he beat Maru in a bo5 TvT at Gamers8 when it really mattered. It's just quite sporadic.
The main reason Clem and everyone else on B tier isn't A tier is because they can all lose to players at C and D tier. I don't expect Serral, Dark or Maru to drop a series to C&D tier players, whereas this is a very real possibility for those in the B tier. Their remarkable consistency against players at lower tiers is what makes their winning chances so much higher.
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Northern Ireland25035 Posts
On July 09 2024 00:13 Fango wrote:
Classic is a special case because I think he can pop off and win a bo7 against anyone. But I don't see him having 30+ builds to carry for the entire event.
The format of this tournament just makes it very difficult for a protoss like him to win. Double elim and a secondary knockout bracket means unless you cruise straight to the final four, you need a bottomless bag of builds.
A protoss like Stats who can play reactive, or herO who's scrappy enough to repeat builds, would have a better shot. Build-smiths aren't made for this kind of events, which is a shame because there's not much money in starleagues or teamleagues in comparison. The best result for Classic is to take out one of the big guys (Serral, Dark, Oliveira, Maru) and then lose to the next one.
Yeah this feels about right, I can definitely see Classic doing well, taking out a big boy or two (man a repeat of him beating someone as he memorably did Rogue would be hyped)
Winning the whole thing given both his strengths and style, and Protoss more generally is probably just that step too far given the format
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On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Correct.
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![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/L0vc29G/my-image.png)
I went like this, also sorted within tiers. I think at least one player from B tier will make final four. SHIN and ShoWTimE down-ranked because the format.
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On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
There's no good evidence that Serral's military service is causing him not to be in 100% form after his Dallas run. How many hours per week does he even have military related duties? Clearly can't be anywhere near fulltime or there's no way he still would've been in that form for Dallas.
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All the Protoss players should be in D tier.
No chance to win lmao.
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On July 09 2024 04:23 JJH777 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained There's no good evidence that Serral's military service is causing him not to be in 100% form after his Dallas run. How many hours per week does he even have military related duties? Clearly can't be anywhere near fulltime or there's no way he still would've been in that form for Dallas.
Yeah, Oliveira mentioned how he grinded practice games after practice games with Serral, he clearly still has a ton of time to practice
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Northern Ireland25035 Posts
On July 09 2024 03:07 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2024 01:26 Blitzball04 wrote:On July 09 2024 01:07 M3t4PhYzX wrote:
Serral or Maru or Clem (in that order of winning probability).
anything else would be a pretty huge upset, imo Only path for Clem to win is if he avoid tvt. Clem can’t win a tvt against Koreans to save his life Clem has shown he can do it, he beat Maru in a bo5 TvT at Gamers8 when it really mattered. It's just quite sporadic. The main reason Clem and everyone else on B tier isn't A tier is because they can all lose to players at C and D tier. I don't expect Serral, Dark or Maru to drop a series to C&D tier players, whereas this is a very real possibility for those in the B tier. Their remarkable consistency against players at lower tiers is what makes their winning chances so much higher.
Yeah pretty much this, and why Serral and Maru are so remarkable in these times.
My tiers are roughly:
A - Highest ceiling, consistent
B - Highest ceiling, inconsistent or slightly lower ceiling but consistent
And so on and so forth.
As for Clem and TvT I feel the matchup is slightly less stable than it has been in the past, but broadly it’s still Maru is favoured versus everyone, Cure is favoured versus everyone not named Maru and the rest of the notable names are kinda 50/50 against each other.
So I don’t think it’s a huge Achilles heel for Clem, but he’d probably prefer other matchups. Like a slightly less potent Serral in that his ZvZ is merely very very good rather than borderline invincible at times like his others
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On July 08 2024 08:29 CicadaSC wrote:
Tier 1 Serral and classic
Tier 2 Maru herO Dark ByuN
Tier 3 Reynor Solar Clem
Tier 4 everyone else
Classic and ByuN are going to have standout results this tournament, as in, doing better than everyone expects. Would anybody like to bet that the standings look like this after the tournament is over?
Tbh I like to see Protoss get a huge champion like EWC. But we know it’s very hard for classic to enter final.
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On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever.
The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all.
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I'd probably have something along the lines of
S+, Serral
S, Maru, Dark, herO
A, Cure, Clem, Reynor
B+, Classic, Shin, Oliveira, Solar, Byun
B, Gumiho, Showtime, Heromarine
C, Spirit, Astrea, Coffee
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EPT
