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On July 09 2024 06:50 Fango wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever. The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all.
Im just preparing the terrain for excuse, in case he doesnt win.
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United States97276 Posts
i cant wait to see the drama in the serral and maru goat threads after this one
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Northern Ireland25036 Posts
On July 09 2024 08:09 Locutos wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2024 06:50 Fango wrote:On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained Nah Serral was never a guy who needed to practice 16 hours a day. At Dallas and Katowice he looked as good as ever. The fact he can still practice a little bit, but spend a lot of time thinking about the game, and then focus 100% on the few big events a year is not a hindrance at all. Im just preparing the terrain for excuse, in case he doesnt win.
He’s for me the favourite, although I don’t think it’s overwhelming like Serral being over 50% chance versus the rest of the field. It’s more likely to me that anyone other than Serral wins versus him taking it home.
But he’s looked imperious this year, and I think double elimination, Bo7 semis etc definitely helps him out. He’s so resolutely consistent that longer series are an advantage for him, and he’s got an extra life if he has a bad one.
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On July 09 2024 08:53 Shellshock wrote:
i cant wait to see the drama in the serral and maru goat threads after this one
What drama? One is the goat, the other isn't :D
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On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.ibb.co/P62Y1Gw/my-image.png) In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else.
This is great. Although I would move Cure and Byun down to C. I just really can't see either of them winning.
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Honestly, the chances that neither Serral /Maru/ Dark is winning is like 5% IMO
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On July 09 2024 20:36 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2024 18:10 Artanis[Xp] wrote:In order within the tiers too, though I'd argue Reynor would have a better chance of winning the tournament than most other players in tier B when he's on. I view Dark, Clem, and Oliveira as the only ones that have a realistic shot at taking out Serral. However, Clem and Oliveira are much more likely than Dark to get knocked out by someone else. This is great. Although I would move Cure and Byun down to C. I just really can't see either of them winning.
I could see an argument for that. Main reason they're still in B is I can see ByuN beating Dark, and Cure beating Maru. Neither is that likely but anyone in C/D I just can't see taking a series off anyone in A/S.
I also think Serral has about a 60% chance of winning. Dark 15%, Maru 12%, rest of the field (mainly looking at Clem, herO and Reynor) 13%.
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I really think the double elim (or triple elim considering the knockout bracket?) format will make a big difference to who ends up winning.
Serral basically never loses in double elim. The more games he's able to play, the better his odds. For him to lose he needs to get sniped by someone like Clem/Oliveira/Classic/another zerg on fire. That doesn't happen often enough to lost in double/triple elim
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No particular ordering
S (Favorites): Maru/Serral
A (Good Chance): Dark/Hero
B (Wouldn't be surprised): Reynor/Clem/Gumi/Shin
C (Would surprise but not impossible):Oliveira/Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic
D (Zero chance): Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
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herO has a good chance to win? haha
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Okay, here is the official tier list
S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)
A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)
B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira
C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero
D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
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On July 10 2024 20:43 Starcloud wrote:
Okay, here is the official tier list
S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)
A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)
B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira
C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero
D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
Yeah, something like this. Mabye split D into D (zero chance) and F (less than zero chance), with Astrea, Coffee, Showtime and Spirit demoted to F.
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On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
Statistically, players competing in offline premiere tournaments while serving in the military have a 100% win rate in SC2, so I'd say Serral's got this one in the bag 
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Northern Ireland25036 Posts
On July 10 2024 20:43 Starcloud wrote:
Okay, here is the official tier list
S (Favorites): Serral (If form = "2024" then chance = 85%, else..)
A (Good Chance): Maru (prolly only if Serral gets knocked out)
B (Wouldn't be surprised): Dark/Oliveira
C (Would surprise but not impossible): Reynor/Clem/Hero
D (Zero chance): Byun/Cure/Solar/Classic/Gumi/Shin/Heromarine/Astrea/Showtime/Spirit
Cure made the final of the last one of these, and a Ro4 in Kato, and in GSLs has gone deep too.
He’s made more Ro4s+ in the last year in Premier tournies than Oliveira has ever made
If we’re weighting very heavily on recent form, Cure’s got some decent form too, feels they should be on the same tier. If the argument is that Oliveira’s shown the cohones to win a big WC-tier event in the past, well Reynor has a couple in his locker even if he’s slumped in recent times:
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I think Maru has a pretty low chance to win, but a high chance to finish runner-up
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On July 08 2024 23:11 Locutos wrote:
Its a pitty Serral is in military service though. I wish he would have entered this 100% trained
Serral gotta give himself a handicap to make this tournament somewhat a challenge for him
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EPT![[image loading]](https://imgur.com/a/zCbDjbX)
