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Code S RO16 Preview: TY, Dream, Armani, Zoun

Forum Index > SC2 General
14 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO16 Preview: TY, Dream, Armani, Zoun

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
September 22nd, 2020 20:39 GMT

2020 GSL Code S Season 3 - Round of 16

by Wax

The Code S RO16 begins with the group-of-life, where #1 seed TY has assembled the three players he has deemed to be the weakest. Will his judgment prove to be correct, or will this be the season where the underdogs finally punish the #1 seed's hubris?

More info: GSL Code S Season 3 on Liquipedia


Group A Preview: TY, Dream, Armani, Zoun

Start time: Wednesday, Sep 23 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

In typical #1 seed fashion, TY has assembled himself a silk tofu-soft group in the round of sixteen. In non-typical #1 seed fashion, I feel like TY actually needs this advantage.

To refresh everyone's memories: TY also had the #1 seed last season, and put together what seemed to be another extremely easy group with DongRaeGu, Scarlett, and SpeCial. However, he only managed to escape the group in second place, ceding first place to DongRaeGu in the winners' match.

That performance made me think that while TY is still solid in straight-up macro games, it no longer seems like he's in the very top-tier of that field. Even TY's friend/student/tormenter SpeCial joked that he and TY are the two Terrans who make up for their slow hands with their big brains, and I think there's a lot of truth to this jest (heck, maybe SpeCial wasn't even joking). If insane multi-tasking was TY's signature move in the past, it's changed to the Hellion-drop in 2020. His Code S championship run was founded largely on his ability to do heavy economic to his opponents in the early game, using uncertainty and deception to mask what might seem like predictable harassment tactics.

It's good for TY to face relatively easy opponents who he's still favored to beat in orthodox macro games, and perhaps save some of those GSL prepared™ strategies for the later rounds. Or, he could just try to bamboozle these three players as well, since he probably has plenty of strategies to spare in his incredibly deep playbook. Either way, there's not much to say about TY at this stage of the tournament. Whether or not you agree that TY's macro-game skills have diminished, his accomplishments this year still far outshine the other players in this group, and he's a virtual lock to advance from this group.

Before we move on to the other three players in the group, I have to make the requisite complaint about how bad the GSL group selection format is, now that the 'meta' has been figured out for years. The swap power of the #1 seed heavily distorts the proceedings, because the simple threat of the swap prevents any other player from picking their desired opponent. GSL caster Gisado tries to explain to the players every season that they can gang up on the #1 seed since they have thirteen picks, while the #1 seed can only steal/swap one player. However, since no player wants to be the lone sucker who actually gets their pick stolen away, they all end up conceding everything to the #1 seed in the end (still waiting for a game theory/math major to break this down in technical detail).

Anyway, let's take a look at the three players who were totally happy to join TY in Group A and fight for the playoff ticket they would otherwise have a much slimmer chance of earning.

TY selected Dream as his first opponent, saying he was miffed because Dream ranked him (TY) as the 4th best Terran in the world during an interview. Dream responded to this by saying he had actually bumped TY further down to 6th place since then, due to the return of ByuN and the rise of Clem. Dream followed that by saying he rates himself as the 7th best Terran, which I suppose makes TY vs Dream the decider match for the 6th best Terran in the world. Uhhh.... cool? If I had to describe my level of excitement for that match, I guess it would be somewhere between getting a second yolk in an egg, and winning $5 on a $1 scratch lotto ticket.

Jokes aside, I find it curious that TY rated Dream low enough to take him so early in the group draft/selection. Remember, Dream made an impressive run to the quarterfinals in the last season of Code S, taking down Solar and Trap to advance in first place from his RO16 group (even if that was overshadowed by DongRaeGu's even more impressive run to the semifinals). Fans of the Golden Series Team Championship will know that Dream has been one of THE top-tier players of that league, outperforming more illustrious aces such as INnoVation and Rogue.

On the other hand, Dream's overall statistics are rather pedestrian in 2020 with a win-rate barely over 60%, and he's only #14 in the Aligulac Korea rankings. Perhaps that's the version of Dream that TY runs into during his ladder sessions. If that's who TY sees in Dream, instead of the big-match player fans like me see through our rose-tinted glasses, then this may have been the right pick for TY.

I don't think there's much of a difference in opinion regarding the final two players in the group, with TY, the other progamers, and fans seeming to mostly agree that first-time RO16 participants Armani and Zoun are the weakest two players in the RO16.

The circumstances behind Armani's RO16 advancement were quite odd, and not just because he upset sOs and Cure to advance in first place from his group. After the matches, Armani talked about how he had come close to giving up SC2 after continued RO24/32 eliminations, and hadn't even practiced half as much as in previous seasons. But as it turned out, being able to play without any expectations or pressure was more valuable to Armani than hundreds of hours of practice, as he was finally able to play at his usual level in the GSL studio. It was one of those interviews that made me wonder that if in spite of all our analysis of army movements and map positioning, the most important space to control in StarCraft II is actually the one inside your own head.

Going off of Armani's games in the RO24, his solid macro-style gives him a puncher's chance of extending his career-best Code S run into the playoffs. However, the most important thing on game day might not be Armani's skill, but his mindset. Maybe he'll think he's already achieved his goal by reaching the RO16, feel like he's gambling with house money, and continue to play without pressure. On the other hand, maybe expectations will once again weigh heavily upon his shoulders now that a quarterfinal spot is within grasp, bringing back the nervousness and anxiety that hampered him in the past.

Finally, we have Zoun who actually does seem to have a bit of fan-hype behind him. I don't know when we crossed the point where fans started calling Protoss players 'creative' instead of 'cheesy,' but I suspect it was around the time we noticed that Protosses weren't winning major events anymore. Anyway, I get the feeling that a small contingent of fans are looking at Zoun as the heir apparent to the house of sOs—to them, I'd say hold your horses (feel free to call me out on this straw man). Sure, Zoun is a Protoss who can upset strong players with cheese, and can also occasionally play a decent macro game. You know who else fits that description? Patience.

Regardless which Protoss Zoun is the heir to, he also has a respectable chance of escaping this group and claiming a playoff spot. One of the undercurrents of the group selection was how loathe Terran players were to pick Protoss opponents, and how eager Protoss players were to pick Terrans (PartinG took Maru over Trap, which says it all). It's amusing that Zoun was the only Protoss player who actually got 'picked' by a Terran—TY clearly regards him as too weak of a player for even imbalance to matter. Alpha X's scouting department has surely been hard at work analyzing the weaknesses of Zoun's opponents (αX is the only team I hear get public credit for this from their players), so perhaps Zoun will show TY that even the mightiest players can be PROTOSSED.

Predictions:

TY > Dream
Armani > Zoun
TY > Armani
Dream > Zoun
Dream > Armani

TY and Dream to advance.




Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Records and Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia

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TL+ Member
deacon.frost
Profile Joined February 2013
Czech Republic12107 Posts
September 22 2020 20:40 GMT
#2
In the greatest traditions of Code S TY should end 4th Although maybe he avoids the curse because he didn't use the player shuffle ability. Should be interesting
I imagine France should be able to take this unless Lilbow is busy practicing for Starcraft III. | KadaverBB is my fairy ban mother.
Dave4
Profile Joined August 2018
494 Posts
September 22 2020 21:41 GMT
#3
Why didnt Rogue get #1 seed? Is it a rolling points thing now rather than previous season winner?
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55021 Posts
September 22 2020 22:03 GMT
#4
On September 23 2020 06:41 Dave4 wrote:
Why didnt Rogue get #1 seed? Is it a rolling points thing now rather than previous season winner?

Yes it's by GSL points and not previous season results.

TY has a massive head-to-head lead over Dream (17-4, 8-0). With TvT being TY's best match-up and Dream's worst I don't think he could have had a much easier 4th player in the group beside Armani and Zoun. To be perfectly frank the only way TY should even drop maps here is if he's not taking things seriously enough (which tbh probably happened last season).
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Morbidius
Profile Joined November 2010
Brazil3429 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-22 22:19:28
September 22 2020 22:19 GMT
#5
Kind of tired of GSL RO16 group A, always a walkover.
Has foreign StarCraft hit rock bottom?
Niravroh
Profile Joined August 2020
165 Posts
September 23 2020 01:12 GMT
#6
I've said this before, but the new rolling points system for seed is stupid, overpowered, and just not as fun to watch. This is actually primarily caused by the new Ro24 system where the top 4 of the last season get seeded into the Ro16. Let's compare the two systems, rolling points vs last season winner.


Last season winner: With this system, whoever won the last season gets an advantage in the next season's Ro16, but that's about it. They may get an easy draw into the playoffs, but they have to then do the work of winning the whole tournament again if they want to keep their #1 seed. Since usually we have different people winning each season, this means that we get different top seeds every time, making it a bit better to watch.


Rolling points: With this system, we will see what happened with TY most likely repeating next year. Whoever wins the first season of GSL gets two thing: They get a free pass into the Ro16, and they also get the top seed for season 2, meaning that their group will be pretty easy, almost guaranteeing a spot into the playoffs. With the points for getting first in season 1 combined with the almost guaranteed playoff points from season 2, the same player will almost certainly retain their top seed for season 3, again giving them a big advantage.


Idk guys, maybe I'm just salty, but I feel like this needs a bit of a change. I'm not too upset about the top seed getting an easy group, but it feels kinda bad when it's the same player getting it for the whole year.
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
535 Posts
September 23 2020 01:28 GMT
#7
On September 23 2020 10:12 Niravroh wrote:
I've said this before, but the new rolling points system for seed is stupid, overpowered, and just not as fun to watch. This is actually primarily caused by the new Ro24 system where the top 4 of the last season get seeded into the Ro16. Let's compare the two systems, rolling points vs last season winner.


Last season winner: With this system, whoever won the last season gets an advantage in the next season's Ro16, but that's about it. They may get an easy draw into the playoffs, but they have to then do the work of winning the whole tournament again if they want to keep their #1 seed. Since usually we have different people winning each season, this means that we get different top seeds every time, making it a bit better to watch.


Rolling points: With this system, we will see what happened with TY most likely repeating next year. Whoever wins the first season of GSL gets two thing: They get a free pass into the Ro16, and they also get the top seed for season 2, meaning that their group will be pretty easy, almost guaranteeing a spot into the playoffs. With the points for getting first in season 1 combined with the almost guaranteed playoff points from season 2, the same player will almost certainly retain their top seed for season 3, again giving them a big advantage.


Idk guys, maybe I'm just salty, but I feel like this needs a bit of a change. I'm not too upset about the top seed getting an easy group, but it feels kinda bad when it's the same player getting it for the whole year.

Yeah, it's very odd. I don't know why they don't just use the same system as ASL, where top four are seeded and lead groups in the same order they placed the prior season. Maybe it's because GSL doesn't have a 3rd/4th place match?
col_jung
Profile Joined October 2017
139 Posts
September 23 2020 01:48 GMT
#8
Hoping for TY and Zoun.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States16741 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-23 03:19:11
September 23 2020 03:12 GMT
#9
On September 23 2020 10:12 Niravroh wrote:
I've said this before, but the new rolling points system for seed is stupid, overpowered, and just not as fun to watch. This is actually primarily caused by the new Ro24 system where the top 4 of the last season get seeded into the Ro16. Let's compare the two systems, rolling points vs last season winner.


Last season winner: With this system, whoever won the last season gets an advantage in the next season's Ro16, but that's about it. They may get an easy draw into the playoffs, but they have to then do the work of winning the whole tournament again if they want to keep their #1 seed. Since usually we have different people winning each season, this means that we get different top seeds every time, making it a bit better to watch.


Rolling points: With this system, we will see what happened with TY most likely repeating next year. Whoever wins the first season of GSL gets two thing: They get a free pass into the Ro16, and they also get the top seed for season 2, meaning that their group will be pretty easy, almost guaranteeing a spot into the playoffs. With the points for getting first in season 1 combined with the almost guaranteed playoff points from season 2, the same player will almost certainly retain their top seed for season 3, again giving them a big advantage.


Idk guys, maybe I'm just salty, but I feel like this needs a bit of a change. I'm not too upset about the top seed getting an easy group, but it feels kinda bad when it's the same player getting it for the whole year.

at the very least they should get rid of the swap for the #1 seed, I mean TY didn't even need to use it, but it guarantees the top seed gets their 2 favorite picks? you literally just need to beat your own 2 picks in order to advance, that's dumb

and combined with not even needing to play in the first round of the tournament, and not needing to be the champ of every season, it's too much
"Expert"
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States31188 Posts
September 23 2020 03:16 GMT
#10
The draft order also sucks cause the #2 seed gets stuck with the #16 pick
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
Elentos
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
55021 Posts
September 23 2020 07:39 GMT
#11
Just make it so the 1st seed swap can only affect players outside of your own group. So you can help out teammates and fuck over people you don't want to play in the play-offs but you can't make a group of free wins
Every 60 seconds in Africa, a minute passes.
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain16209 Posts
September 23 2020 07:57 GMT
#12
On September 23 2020 07:19 Morbidius wrote:
Kind of tired of GSL RO16 group A, always a walkover.

For the #1 spot it should be. The #2 spot I feel is really up for grabs. Zoun just has to adept brrrrrr his way past Armani and then he has a PvT in which balance really gives him a nice leg up.
Veluvian
Profile Joined December 2011
Bulgaria252 Posts
September 23 2020 09:00 GMT
#13
TY of course.
But... who knows... may be Zoun can destroy them all again. That's gonna be curious event. It can happen.
Oz; MMA; Rain; sOs; Classic, Soulkey, TY, Dark
gpanda
Profile Joined December 2017
36 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-24 16:30:43
September 23 2020 15:55 GMT
#14
+ Show Spoiler +
another big prediction failure
~ava
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Canada378 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-09-29 14:08:59
September 23 2020 16:49 GMT
#15
Zoun babyyyyyy, hyped to see this a bit later when i have time

Edit: oh well finally saw the series, impressive games but Armani deserved the win
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