EPTIEM Katowice 2020: Imagining the Ro76
A newly founded ESL Pro Tour is set to kick off at IEM Katowice 2020, ending one of the longest 'off-seasons' we've seen in competitive SC2. While we've had plenty of online competitions to hold us over, no one really knows what to expect when the best players in the world collide in offline competition.So instead of a traditional preview for the RO76, we're going back to a gimmick that our readers seemed to enjoy the last time around: predictions based on our fan-passion filled hopes and fantasies. It's not so much about what we think will happen as what we want to happen (as it turns out, we want weird things).
Bracket #1
by Orlok• Double Elimination: Three players advance to round of 24
• Start time: Monday, Feb 24 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Scenario #1: Korea always wins - Any three Korean players advance
While it’s undeniable that Korean players are no longer the favorites to advance out of every group and dominate the playoffs, it’s ALSO undeniable that they're still heavy favorites during the Ro76 phase of the tournament. The Korean players in this bracket aren’t the most dangerous in their current form, but they're a solid batch of veterans with plenty of international experience.
sOs comes in as the favorite to advance on paper, but he's leaning on his reputation more than ever before. We all know he COULD easily breeze past this bracket if he brings his A-game, as he’s shown us all too many times in the past. However, it’s been quite a while since he last did something truly memorable (like beating Maru in the BlizzCon quarterfinals), so it's getting tough to keep having faith in him. He’s been lukewarm since his top four finish at Blizzcon 2018, sometimes revealing his cunning but more often failing to defeat more solid opponents. A strong start here will go a long way to restoring his reputation.Next up are Patience and Creator, who are both are fringe Code S players that still found their way to the Ro24 of IEM Katowice last year. It's results like that which really draw out full smugness from Korean elitists (even if they were eliminated in the Ro24). Say what you will about Creator's all-around poor results: he still helped bounce Reynor from the Ro76. Since there's not even a Reynor tier player in the bracket this time around, why couldn't these two make it back to the group stage?
Finally, there's
Super and Zoun, both of whom have returned to StarCraft II after lengthy breaks. Super managed to punch a ticket back to Code S last season and actually put up a credible fight against the likes of Maru and Impact. In Zoun's case, he's been a sneakily solid online performer during the off-season, though it's hard to know how that will translate to offline tournaments. They're certainly darkhorses to make it to the Ro24, with their fellow Koreans probably being their toughest competition.Scenario #2: Polish Bias - Any three Polish players advance
Five Polish players have been stuffed into this bracket, which could be a horrible stroke of misfortune, or a next-level, big-brain bracket rig by ESL to maximize the chance of at least ONE Polish player getting through.
Sir Ziggy of Poland (a beneficiary of EXTRA bias due to being a fellow TL.net writer) is back, and he’s might not be in the worst situation ever known to foreign Terrans facing Korean Protosses. Yes, sOs is two-time BlizzCon champion, and theoretically he should walk all over Ziggy. However, if I had to choose one Korean player that could lose just as easily as he could win over a foreigner, it’d also be sOs. sOs’s very nature as a player is mercurial, and he's always had a rather shaky macro skill set. Ziggy will be playing on his home turf and he’ll have his crazy builds at hand practiced to perfection, which is no small advantage (one hopes that Artosis will be cheering him on and following his every move from far away). Miracles happen when you least expect them, right?
Speaking of Liquid bias, one has to be partial toward
MaNa giving the Polish fans another player to really get behind in the group stage. It’s been a long while since that second place run back in WCS Austin 2018—while MaNa hasn't exactly fallen off a cliff, he hasn't really returned to that level of competition. What better place than IEM Katowice to make a glorious comeback?Or maybe it will be
souL that joins Elazer in representing Poland in the group stage. We still remember the time he cheesed Stats out of the Ro76 back in 2018. Even if that didn't result in a Ro24 spot back then (he ended up losing to RyunG), there's plenty of upside for the Polish Terran.Finally, there's
Krystianer and Gerald, the duo from team Blacer. Uhhh, yeah, they're playing. Fighting!Scenario #3: One Zerg to Rule them ALL -
Denver advances in first place, without a map loss, beating the hardest opponents possibleThere is only one Zerg player in this bracket. Yes, you heard me correctly, one. Denver is the lone representative of the Swarm in this whole bracket. If you look at his results, he doesn't seem to have a high chance of advancing. And you know what? To hell with the analytics, statistics and heady discussions about chance. It’d be more than a little amusing if Denver managed to get out of this bracket. Would we start the first major tournament of 2020 with even MORE complaints about Zerg? Would we herald Denver as the one of the rising stars of 2020? Since this is us imagining what COULD be, I’m going to just pick this scenario out of the three above. Denver will beat the odds and prove what a one man bracket army is capable of.
Bracket #2
by Orlok• Double Elimination: Three players advance to round of 24
• Start time: Monday, Feb 24 2:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
Scenario #1: Let’s do the HAS warp again -
Has advances, preferably in ridiculous fashionRemember when Has had the tournament run of his life back at WCS Valencia 2018? When he beat all the odds and rational predictions against the likes of Kelazhur, Nerchio and ShowTimE, and even managed to minorly inconvenience Serral himself? While Has has never managed a return to such levels yet, fans of chaos have never stopped hoping that Has' brand of cheese would
Unlike most of his Protoss brethren, cheese has helped Has' popularity more so than damage it. While we all hate losing to cheddar, to see a player so purely personifying it is bizarrely majestic. Has leaves us gaping in awe at how unbelievable some of his wins are, be it through triple-proxied buildings or cannon-rushes that work despite awful placement of every building.
Has has the luxury of being in the top part of the upper bracket, letting him bypass heavyweights such as INnoVation and Neeb. A Zerg-heavy bracket of Armani, Nerchio, TLO and Impact is tough, but also gives Has the most opportunities to ply his cheesy craft. His opponents may be forced to GG-out despite knowing there's something nasty coming.
Scenario #2: Did someone say $150,000 first place prize? -
INnoVation advancesSpeaking of INnoVation, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen him play at the same kind of level he peaked at all the way back in 2017. His rebirth from his 2016 slump was seriously impressive, and he briefly toyed with perfection throughout his game, be it in macro, micro or mental fortitude.
Since then, INnoVation has been one of the most peculiar players in the StarCraft II scene, one capable of winning the biggest tournaments in the world and also capable of mailing in uninspired performances. He pocketed a handsome prize of $150,000 USD at WESG in 2019, surmounting the wall that is Serral. But he was seriously disappointing in the GSL and ended up missing out on the Global Finals.
Is it time for INnoVation to get paid again? His side of the bracket is arguably one of the easier ones, with only Neeb looking like a serious threat. Even if INnoVation is bested by Neeb, he'll fall to a lower-bracket that should have been thinned out considerably. Taking some of his recent online matches and qualification to the GSL Super Tournament into account, one might cautiously predict that we'll see something close to peak-form INnoVation.
Bracket #3
by Wax• Double Elimination: Three players advance to round of 24
• Start time: Tuesday, Feb 25 10:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)
Scenario #1: Liquid bias -
Harstem, Clem, and a third player advanceIt's been a long while since TL.net has been accused of Liquid bias in its previews. Honestly, I'm offended, as it negates all of the effort we've put in over years to clarify that this website is technically separate from the team (not that anyone cares). We'll continue to correct that here in bracket #3 by predicting triumphant, dominant runs from the two new Liquid signees:
Clem and Harstem. After bootcamping in the Netherlands with the unrivaled intellect of the Team Liquid brain trust, they're bound to arrive in the best form of their careers.We probably don't need much help in hyping Clem up. His Nation Wars 2019 performance—where he took down both Germany and Poland nearly single-handedly—locked him in as THE up-and-comer to watch in the 2020 season. In Harstem's case, he recently told us in an interview that he's improved significantly, even picking himself as a player to watch at IEM Katowice. C'mon, would he lie to us?
Jokes aside (or was I being serious?), this seems like a result a lot of fans will be rooting for. Liquid is one of the few "major" esports orgs that's still active in StarCraft II, and it doubled down on its investment by signing Harstem and Clem in anticipation of StarCraft II's 10th anniversary. For the sake of the scene, it would be cool if Liquid got an early, worthwhile return.
Scenario #2: Returning champions -
soO, Polt, and a third player advanceIn a moment you might have missed if you didn't watch last year's semifinal broadcast from the very start, IEM had Zest (the IEM 2015 World Champion) come out and present the IEM trophy. I appreciate it when the long-enduring tournaments of StarCraft II like IEM pay homage to their history like that—it's the good kind of self-congratulation that adds gravitas to an event.
It's not quite as grandiose as presenting the trophy on the main stage, but the appearance of Polt and soO in the IEM open brackets serves as another reminder of its history. Polt won the 2016 edition of the tournament—back when it was one of the WCS Circuit championships—the last title in his storied career. soO, of course, won last year's IEM tournament, finally achieving his dream of winning a major championship after so many runner-up finishes.
Honestly, they're not in great shape. soO wasn't even a championship contender when he DID win IEM Katowice last year—his mediocre performances for the rest of 2019 showed that Katowice was truly a miraculous run (to the degree that we should ban the word from being used in any other StarCraft context, lest we devalue it). Polt, like many other players to return from military service, has yet to find his old form.
On the one hand, seeing these two fall out of the open bracket wouldn't necessarily be a terrible thing—in a healthy competitive ecosystem, old legends are supposed to fade eventually, supplanted by those who are younger and hungrier. At the same time, there's something about seeing old soldiers refusing to give up, getting by with every ounce of cunning and class, that warms the heart in a way the most skillful display of speed and precision can't.
Scenario #3: [Cancelled], [Cancelled], and [Cancelled] advance
Man, I can't tell you excited I am to see [Cancelled] play in a meaningful event after the off-season. I think [Cancelled] is one of the most underrated players headed into Katowice—going by his online performances, you might even say he's a darkhorse title contender.
Obviously, there's a big difference between online and offline competition. But [Cancelled] hasn't just been winning with repetitive macro play—I also appreciate that he's been committed enough to online tournaments to bring really clever all-ins. He's sure to do the same at Katowice, which will give him a big edge against anyone who's not as prepared.
Another thing going for [Cancelled] is that there is no overwhelming favorite or impossible obstacle in this bracket. Remember, the RO76 is comprised entirely of BO3's, which means I see [Cancelled] having a puncher's chance of beating anyone—even against [Forfeited]. You know what, I'm not going to hedge my bets here. I'm confident enough in [Cancelled] to say he's a LOCK to make it to the Ro24.
Bracket #4
by Wax• Double Elimination: Three players advance to round of 24
• Start time: Tuesday, Feb 25 2:40pm GMT (GMT+00:00)
Scenario #1:
Rail advances alongside any two playersRegular readers of TL.net will know we're quite fascinated with Russian Protoss Rail. He holds the unofficial record for most retirements and unretirements in StarCraft II, which number so many that I just stopped counting after four cycles. Most players would just say they're taking a break or just say nothing at all, but Rail has been pretty committed to announcing his retirements in a semi-official manner (which we're very thankful for).
To be fair, Rail's last retirement in April wasn't at all his fault—with two of the WCS championships held in Ukraine by Starladder, the Russian national was the unfortunate, collateral damage of geo-politics and effectively barred from participating. It came at a very unfortunate timing for Rail, who was arguably playing the best StarCraft II of his career in early 2019, reaching the top eight of WCS Europe: Winter and playoffs at WESG. If I had to pick a highlight from his 2019 run, I'd take his messy but wildly entertaining map-win against INnoVation at WESG.
Anyway, I'm quite sympathetic to Rail's travails. A Ro24 berth at Katowice would be quite the way to announce his comeback and make up for lost time. (I'm also ready to see him cancel on 3 hours notice).
Scenario #2: Any two players advance,
Lambo and Ragnarok fight for the third spot in a deathmatchWith the top players already seeded into the group stage, Katowice open bracket matches sometimes feel like they lack some of the big rivalries and bad-blood that help spice up the scene. Thankfully, through his interviews throughout the years, Lambo has made himself vs. [any Korean Zerg] a delicious grudge-match for the fans.
Honestly, I have no idea if Lambo's comments about Korean Zergs playing ZvZ sub-optimally have been translated and spread throughout the Korean community, or if Korean Zergs know that they're defending an entire style of play when they're facing Lambo.
But hey, as long as the fans know, does that really matter? The Korean elitists on TL.net are thirsting for Lambo's blood, hoping to see him humiliated by the 'clown' tactics of Korean Zergs. On the other hand, members of the European Zerg cabal are probably giddy to see Lambo shut down some random Ling-Bane all-in and take a free win. All this makes a potential Lambo vs RagnaroK match about as hype as a ZvZ could be (at least one that doesn't involve Serral).
