“What if?” is a question that torments people. The past is unchangeable, yet we still torture ourselves with this question, asking ourselves what could have, maybe even should have been. We imagine in our minds the countless ways things could have played out differently, forever chasing dreams that are cursed to remain dreams.
One has to wonder if Rogue ever asks himself this question. He’s tasted success, and plenty of it. Once a cunning-but-inconsistent wild card player for Jin Air, Rogue emerged from beneath the shadow of illustrious teammates sOs and Maru to forge his own shining legacy in StarCraft II. IEM World Champion. WCS Global Champion. 4th highest prize money earner of all time. What phantoms of the past could still cause Rogue to lose sleep?
Should Rogue have any regrets, they probably have something to do with the fact that he now enters his first ever GSL Code S finals. If soO was the king of kongs, then Rogue was the regent of the round-of-eight. Prior to this season, Rogue clawed his way to eight quarterfinal appearances in Code S, only to bite the dust each and every time. At times, you could be sympathetic to his plight, like when he ran into Stats and Maru at the peak of their powers. But after four years of losing, it became clear that it didn't matter if his opponents were top-tier competitors, outmatched underdogs, or even a foreigner in Neeb—the quarterfinal round itself was Rogue's true nemesis.
"What if Rogue never wins GSL Code S?" If fans entertained this question, then it's hard to believe that Rogue wouldn't have pondered it as well. Considering Rogue's success at 'weekender' style tournaments such as IEM, GSL Super Tournament, and BlizzCon, this Code S jinx might not seem like such a huge disappointment. Yet, there is something special about Code S that transcends prize money and any other factors, due to its nearly decade-year long history as the utmost test of skill in StarCraft II. To not win Code S would leave Rogue fans with a feeling of emptiness, even with the crowns of 'world champion' bestowed upon him by other organizations. After all, how great can a player be if they can't win the most prestigious domestic trophy?
And all of the sudden, miracle. Perhaps thinking enough was enough, Janus, Osiris, Marduk, or whatever deities decided to intervene on behalf of Rogue’s cursed soul (obviously they're StarCraft II fans). This season of Code S saw Rogue finally brush off his past failures, not only advancing past the quarterfinals but proceeding to crash directly through the semifinal gate to reach the grand finals.
The actual breaking of the quarterfinal curse happened in almost the least impressive way possible, as Rogue's 3-2 win over Zest was marred by sloppy play, failed cheeses, and ugly throws. In the end, a lucky scout against a desperation cannon rush just barely let Rogue squeak by. After such a rough showing against a confessed poor PvZ player like Zest, you had to wonder if the curse would just carry over into the semifinals.
However, Rogue went on to eliminate such doubts with a 4-1 thrashing of the de facto 'best Korean Zerg' Dark. The weak, unsure Rogue of the quarterfinals was magically replaced by the confident, audacious competitor who had won trophies around the world. Maybe that bit of magic was actually the change in format—Rogue reminded us before the semifinals that he was undefeated in offline best-of-seven matches, with a 4-0 record in such settings. It might be that the extra wriggle room to go for risky strategies brings out the absolute best in Rogue. It certainly seemed that way against Dark, as Rogue's near perfect map-by-map planning (besides losing to Dark's brilliant Nydus-Swarm Host tactics in game one) allowed him to take a smashing victory.
This Code S finals gives Rogue a chance to make up for all of the missed opportunities in the past and tick off the final box on his career checklist. His success at big-money international tournaments is already etched into history, and all he needs now is the prestige of a Code S title to complete his career.
We all know what can happen when Rogue catches fire toward the end of a season. In 2017, it almost seemed like he was pacing himself to peak in the final third of the year, embarking on a remarkable winning streak that concluded in a WCS Global Championship. Now, it's time for Rogue to turn that 5-0 record in best-of-sevens into 6-0, answering the "what if?" of a Code S championship for good. And after he's done with that, it will be time to move on to the next challenge and force StarCraft 2 fans to ask a different kind of question: "what if Rogue can make it 7-0 in the BlizzCon finals?"
Orlok predicts Rogue 4 - 2 Trap, which is the same score I predict despite writing the Trap preview (it just seemed mean to predict against him there )
On September 27 2019 17:27 Akio wrote: I didn't even realize Rogue was 5-0 in bo7s, there's a possibility for a real crazy stat here if he wins Code S.
Also great write up
Well that's partly due to the fact that he couldn't reach ro4+ in GSL though ^^'.
On September 27 2019 17:09 Waxangel wrote: Orlok predicts Rogue 4 - 2 Trap, which is the same score I predict despite writing the Trap preview (it just seemed mean to predict against him there )
On September 27 2019 17:27 Akio wrote: I didn't even realize Rogue was 5-0 in bo7s, there's a possibility for a real crazy stat here if he wins Code S.
Also great write up
Well that's partly due to the fact that he couldn't reach ro4+ in GSL though ^^'.
He would have had at least 4 GSLs by now if he could.
No joke. I think there are four seperate Code S seasons he would have won had he beaten said ro8 opponent. The matchups he would have had in the ro4s/finals would have been much easier for him. All four of those ro8s were also 3-2 losses and all were throws from Rogue.
He's a criminal underachiever, which sounds odd given he has two world championships.
On September 27 2019 17:27 Akio wrote: I didn't even realize Rogue was 5-0 in bo7s, there's a possibility for a real crazy stat here if he wins Code S.
Also great write up
Well that's partly due to the fact that he couldn't reach ro4+ in GSL though ^^'.
He would have had at least 4 GSLs by now if he could.
No joke. I think there are four seperate Code S seasons he would have won had he beaten said ro8 opponent. The matchups he would have had in the ro4s/finals would have been much easier for him. All four of those ro8s were also 3-2 losses and all were throws from Rogue.
He's a criminal underachiever, which sounds odd given he has two world championships.
Clearly it is easier to commit crime in Korea than in the States.
On September 28 2019 01:14 CicadaSC wrote: can't tell if people saying patchzerg are memeing or not.
It's a joke, but he is a victim of circumstances right now. There is a clear perception of late game Zerg being superior to all other races. Should Trap lose 4-0 in long macro games it will he hard to argue against the state of play helping Rogue when looking back on this years from now. That's not how I feel personally, but its definitely a valid view point I foresee many taking if this happens.
On September 28 2019 01:14 CicadaSC wrote: can't tell if people saying patchzerg are memeing or not.
In 2019: soO won his first significant championship. Dark made and then won his first GSL finals. Rogue made his first GSL ro4, finals, and can still win the tournament. It is the first year in LotV and first time since 2015 with 4 ZvZ finals of significant tournaments.
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
People chalk that up to nerves and a general clown fiesta series while remembering he stomped Stats in the ro16.
On September 28 2019 01:14 CicadaSC wrote: can't tell if people saying patchzerg are memeing or not.
In 2019: soO won his first significant championship. Dark made and then won his first GSL finals. Rogue made his first GSL ro4, finals, and can still win the tournament. It is the first year in LotV and first time since 2015 with 4 ZvZ finals of significant tournaments.
Championship level players make the finals, and win. Oh no!
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
People chalk that up to nerves and a general clown fiesta series while remembering he stomped Stats in the ro16.
Yeah, Stats got stomped in that group though, clearly not his day. I think the negatives of having THESE series vs Zest outweighs the positives of beating Stats by far. Also, if Rogue got there nerves during Ro8, imagine him during his first GSL grand finals
To be honest it's not like either of the two players have given us much to be excited for in major offline PvZ. But they get a week of GSL-STYLE PREPARATION™ so I hope to be entertained.
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
On September 28 2019 05:26 Waxangel wrote: To be honest it's not like either of the two players have given us much to be excited for in major offline PvZ. But they get a week of GSL-STYLE PREPARATION™ so I hope to be entertained.
I think Trap gave a very good series vs Serral. The game with the swarmhosts was very very close, imo. All the other games were also very fun to watch.
On September 28 2019 01:14 CicadaSC wrote: can't tell if people saying patchzerg are memeing or not.
It's a joke, but he is a victim of circumstances right now. There is a clear perception of late game Zerg being superior to all other races. Should Trap lose 4-0 in long macro games it will he hard to argue against the state of play helping Rogue when looking back on this years from now. That's not how I feel personally, but its definitely a valid view point I foresee many taking if this happens.
True, I would take that point of view in those conditions, I think that is only fair.
Hopefully balance won't be a deciding factor.
I am glad at least one of them will get to win their first GSL, they both deserve it by now imo. Pity its a team kill.
On September 28 2019 05:26 Waxangel wrote: To be honest it's not like either of the two players have given us much to be excited for in major offline PvZ. But they get a week of GSL-STYLE PREPARATION™ so I hope to be entertained.
I think Trap gave a very good series vs Serral. The game with the swarmhosts was very very close, imo. All the other games were also very fun to watch.
I really liked Traps approach with blink stalkers back then, I wonder if blink vs swarmhost will be a factor in the final considering Rogue can prep for it.
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
People chalk that up to nerves and a general clown fiesta series while remembering he stomped Stats in the ro16.
Yeah, Stats got stomped in that group though, clearly not his day. I think the negatives of having THESE series vs Zest outweighs the positives of beating Stats by far. Also, if Rogue got there nerves during Ro8, imagine him during his first GSL grand finals
Stats got stomped after EMP was buffed (maru used it to crush him) and Protoss midgame got nerfed (bad vs zerg) and OL speed buff.
Before the balance patch Stats was trashing maru and solar
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
People chalk that up to nerves and a general clown fiesta series while remembering he stomped Stats in the ro16.
Yeah, Stats got stomped in that group though, clearly not his day. I think the negatives of having THESE series vs Zest outweighs the positives of beating Stats by far. Also, if Rogue got there nerves during Ro8, imagine him during his first GSL grand finals
Stats got stomped after EMP was buffed (maru used it to crush him) and Protoss midgame got nerfed (bad vs zerg) and OL speed buff.
Before the balance patch Stats was trashing maru and solar
You realize that Maru is by far the best terran in the world right? So if he gets "trashed" by Stats, that means there is a problem that needs to be addressed?
And considering Trap 4-1ed Maru after the patch, the patch was long overdue.
Maybe they shouldn't have nerfed protoss so much but buffed terran / nerfed nydus and/or infestor a bit more and it would have been fine, idk.
On September 28 2019 02:34 Juny1spion wrote: Trap still has a serious shot at beating Rogue. Can't believe so many people are confident to say Rogue takes this after his series vs Zest.
People chalk that up to nerves and a general clown fiesta series while remembering he stomped Stats in the ro16.
Yeah, Stats got stomped in that group though, clearly not his day. I think the negatives of having THESE series vs Zest outweighs the positives of beating Stats by far. Also, if Rogue got there nerves during Ro8, imagine him during his first GSL grand finals
Stats got stomped after EMP was buffed (maru used it to crush him) and Protoss midgame got nerfed (bad vs zerg) and OL speed buff.
Before the balance patch Stats was trashing maru and solar
Man, don't worry. They will buff Protoss next patch, and most likely nerf Zerg.
EPT![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/2019/codes3/gslbracket5.png)
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