At long last, we've arrived at the end. After one last week of hard-fought games and unpredictable twists, Stats and Maru have earned their spots in the GSL Code S Grand Final. Despite starting in January as underdogs, both players have continued to up their games throughout the GSL season, advancing at times where their demise seemed certain. Online games, offline games, long-term record, short-term record: the duo rendered all of the statistics irrelevant as they clutched their way through round after round. After such a wild ride to the grand finale, we're set for what could be one of the most explosive finals in GSL history.
.1
Grand Final: Stats vs Maru
Stats’ run through 2018 was a veritable roller coaster ride. He entered the first GSL of the year looking battered and bruised after his 2017 season ended in shame at BlizzCon. He had entered the final event of the 2017 season as the #1 overall seed from Korea, but he was unceremoniously booted from the group stage after suffering defeat at the hands of SpeCial and TY.
2018 brought a new patch, a new meta, and a chance for Stats to begin his recovery. He easily qualified for GSL Code S, but his form was cast into doubt when he failed to qualify for IEM Katowice, IEM PyeongChang, and WESG 2017. Of course, those were brutal qualifiers, with only the best players in Korea earning the right to compete for big money at international events. But Stats had been the #1 seed at BlizzCon just a few months ago. That was the level of play—and the version of himself—that Stats was being judged against. Things got even worse for Stats when he traveled to Katowice to compete in the live qualifier portion of the IEM World Championship, only to suffer an embarrassing elimination at the hands of Poland's souL.
In the midst of these troubles, GSL was a sanctuary. Anywhere else in the world, Stats was capable of losing to anyone. In AfreecaTV's FreecUP studio, Stats was capable of beating anyone. He cruised through the RO32 and RO16 group stages of Code S with nary a hiccup, and continued to defy the odds by defeating Classic in the RO8. At that point in time, it would have been fair to call Classic the best Protoss player in the whole world. The whole world—minus the GSL studio.
Stats proceeded to get eliminated from the online Olimoleague and Ballistix Brawl tournaments with losses to Ragnarok and Impact—both players eliminated in the Code S RO32. Of course, Stats followed those matches with an unthinkable upset: he defeated soO—one of the greatest Code S players ever—after falling behind 1-3 in the Code S semifinals.
Once more, Stats faces a difficult opponent. Stats has proven himself in top-tier PvP and PvZ by defeating Classic and soO, and he has respectable 62.50% and 65.62% win rates in the match-ups over the last 2 months. However, he has yet to pass a significant test against an elite Terran player, and his PvT win rate over the same period has remained lackluster at 46.15%. His two most notable PvT's in recent memory are losses from IEM Katowice. One was the aforementioned loss against the far less illustrious souL, and the other was a comprehensive late-game beatdown at the hands of Maru. Not one to mince words, Maru offered some ominous words after the series "I thought I couldn't lose if it went late."
Stats and Maru faced off at IEM Katowice in what might be a preview of the GSL finals
Maru, on the other hand, has had a more traditional hero's arc after starting the year with all the odds stacked against him. All the Terrans cried doom and gloom immediately after the 4.0 patch, but it was Maru—not INnoVation—who shone forth as the sole light in the dark. Cries of "Just play like Maru" echoed throughout the StarCraft II universe, in equal parts irony and sincerity.
The state of Terran was not the best going into 2018, with many of the race's aggressive options becoming curtailed over a period of time. Unit changes and playstyle adjustments made it harder for Terran to take the initiative in the mid-game, unless they wanted to commit to an almost all-in style. All of that should have made life harder for Maru, a player who built his reputation on aggression, micro-management and multi-tasking. This did show in the initial online qualifiers for IEM Katowice and PyeongChang, and even in some of Maru's losses in the early rounds of the GSL. But as February turned to March, Maru reinvented himself. He was still dangerous as ever in the early game, able to carve out leads or end games outright. However, he became more dominant than he had ever been in the late-game. Maru had never been "weak" per se in late-game TvZ, but it was never his foundation for that match-up. Now, it's become a huge strength and win-condition that every opponent is forced to play around. Say what you will about Ravens and Anti-Armor Missiles—few would have expected Maru to be Terran to abuse them to their greatest extent. Solar, Elazer, Nerchio, Scarlett, Serral and Dark (x2) have fallen to Maru in succession. His two wins against Dark earned him gold at WESG 2017 (and $200,000) and his spot in the GSL finals.
With a ridiculous 77.50% TvZ win rate and 72.22% TvT win rate in the previous two months, Maru is definitely one of the scariest players to face right now. However, his TvP seems rocky in comparison—at least statistically. It's his worst match-up over the same period with a 61.29% win rate, but one must wonder how much that matters. Maru's losses have come against strong Protoss opponents such as Classic, herO, as well as his old rival Dear. But Maru has plenty of wins against elite Protosses as well, beating sOs, Stats, as well as his old rival Dear. And unlike Stats, Maru has made short work of opponents he "should" defeat.
In terms of head-to-head, neither player has a significant advantage. Maru and Stats have squared off numerous times in the past, and they currently sit at an even 21-21 in terms of games (via Aligulac.com) with Stats holding a 6-5 lead in BO3+ series.
As such this battle will come down to form and preparation (a cliché, but no less true for it). Maru clearly has form on his side, but Stats has shown outstanding preparation and clutch mentality throughout his GSL run. Given how both players love throwing their opponents curveballs in the form of early-game aggression, it's easy to see a lot of these matches ending early. Stats will have had time to study their series from IEM Katowice, but one can't help but think Maru should still have a slight lead in the late-game given the incredible play he's shown us in TvZ. Some understanding just transcends match-ups.
Prediction
While it seems counter-intuitive to bet on him, I do believe Stats has what it takes to win the finals. Protoss has a stronger early game and more map presence than Terran. Through his GSL run, regardless of the match-up, Stats has proven that he can seize the advantage in the early game (both with proxies and less devious strategies). Maru has not shown the best early game scouting or game sense against all-ins, and he is liable to lose some games without being able to put up a fight. Furthermore, while Maru’s late game is strong, I don’t believe it is strong enough to prevent Stats from finding a way to take 1 or 2 games off of him. Lastly, Stats' overall preparation and flat out ability to defy all expectations has just been absurd this season. How many times can we say he snatched victory from the jaws of defeat before we realize he was the favorite to win all along?
Unacceptable writing. How dare you all says 4-3 Stats. I demand the truth. This is the saga about the Prince who became the King. The king who will unite all of Terrans.
I know I favoured Maru to lose in both bo7s against Dark, but I really think Stats has this one. Maru's TvZ and TvT are the best right now, but his TvP isn't that strong. Although its worth noting he could have the best TvP in the world and it still wouldn't win him big matches, most of the top protoss look ridiculous in that matchup.
On March 28 2018 17:38 Argonauta wrote: Nice preview, I do believe in Maru despite TL always betting against him (and also against stats tbh). But the more important question is...
Who is going to cast it?
A finals without tastosis...geez. Aside from the "I turn off the sound because I can't stand them" crowd, that's gonna really disappoint a lot of people including me.
On March 28 2018 17:38 Argonauta wrote: Nice preview, I do believe in Maru despite TL always betting against him (and also against stats tbh). But the more important question is...
Who is going to cast it?
A finals without tastosis...geez. Aside from the "I turn off the sound because I can't stand them" crowd, that's gonna really disappoint a lot of people including me.
On March 28 2018 17:38 Argonauta wrote: Nice preview, I do believe in Maru despite TL always betting against him (and also against stats tbh). But the more important question is...
Who is going to cast it?
A finals without tastosis...geez. Aside from the "I turn off the sound because I can't stand them" crowd, that's gonna really disappoint a lot of people including me.
Wait, why won't Tastosis cast it?
They are going to the Starcraft 20th anniversary event.
*however*, we haven't seen as much pvt from maru as other matches, and what we have seen isn't quite as impressive as his tvt and especially his tvz.
and then there is stats, who just keeps winning but from what I see it never looks particularly impressive (in terms of top tier play), and so every next round I count him out and then somehow he wins again.
so, uh, my prediction is the same as TL's. 4-3, stats wins and it won't even look particularly impressive.
I say Maru takes this series. Im going to go with 4-3.
Marus mental state must be very strong right now. He's coming from a strong placing in Katowice, winning a wesg for lots of money and now his first GSL finals. Whatever he is doing, it's working!!
Stats on the other hand has something to prove. From first seed in 2017 to getting knocked out of the major tournaments on 2018 but still doing well in GSL.
Just in terms of perceived mental states, I'd say Maru has the upper hand by a long shot.
On another note, I think tvp is Marus worst matchup ATM, but still his TvP builds are freaking amazing. He's got a very unique style imo with fast reactor factory to deal w early game and a great eng 2nd 3rd rax and starport timings. I don't think Maru is going to loose a lot of early games and the longer a game goes the more I'd give it to Maru, despite the match up.
The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
With his PvT not looking that solid, I still wouldn't consider him massively favoured though. Favoured? Probably. Massively favoured? Maru knows how to build cyclones too.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
Stats is 13-7 vs korean terrans since the beginning of the year with wins against bunny (4-0), cure (3-0), ryung (2-1) and dwarf (2-0) while he lost vs alive, byun and maru.
Maru is 19-25 with wins (and losses) vs better protoss players comparatively.
In no way is Stats massively favored, one could even argue maru might be favored slightly. Hard to say really, but stats' recent pvt results aren't exactly impressive either.
On March 29 2018 02:57 Waxangel wrote: The lack of Maru TvP games in recent weeks makes this one such a mystery. I can totally see him showing up with TvP that's equally strong as his TvZ and taking this series 4-1 or 4-2. On the other hand, I'm always spooked by weird intangible factors in the GSL (soO's 2nd place curse etc.), and Stats' ability to be poor in EVERY other tournament yet triumph in the GSL makes me wonder if he can do it again.
I don't think any terran player right now is as strong in TvP as they are in TvZ. Maru's winrate vs korean protoss since 4.0 is 42%. Stats' winrate vs korean terran since 4.0 is 71%. Stats is massively favoured in this final and no one seems to recognise it.
(I exclude the non koreans because Maru stomped plenty of them at IEM/WeSG, it inflated his winrate).
On March 29 2018 02:39 TW wrote: Mary has SOS in team house. He will prepare insenely good as he did with Rouge. Stats doesnot have such comfort. Unless TY helps him a lot.
Recently on stream Stats has had Inno, TY, and Bunny over, I think he has a fine selection of practice partners. Maru doesn't as much, Creator isn't as good and sOs doesn't even try playing normal games against him.
Losing to souL didn't do much good to Stats' PvT reputation (even if those were cyclone cheese games).
They were borderline build-order-wins. Although Stats handled them very badly, it doesn't say anything about his standard game. Stats losing like that is just midleading and gives everyone the impression he's weaker than he truly is.
(at the same time, Maru stomped a bunch of foreign protoss in that tournament but didn't look particularly strong doing it, I'd actually go as far to say Stats looked just as good in PvT as Maru did at that time).
Stats is 13-7 vs korean terrans since the beginning of the year with wins against bunny (4-0), cure (3-0), ryung (2-1) and dwarf (2-0) while he lost vs alive, byun and maru.
Maru is 19-25 with wins (and losses) vs better protoss players comparatively.
In no way is Stats massively favored, one could even argue maru might be favored slightly. Hard to say really, but stats' recent pvt results aren't exactly impressive either.
A 62% vs 42% winrate is pretty significant. Even if Maru generally had harsher opponents. I don't believe for one second that Stat's PvT is particularly weaker either. Especially here when he performs much better in GSL than other events.
Sorry but the lvl of opposition in both these is so different that the win% alone means almost nothing. Bunny is really bad in tvp, cure is cure and ryung isn't known for tvp either. He lost vs "better" tvp player in maru, byun and alive. It's extremely unimpressive
Just watching Maru play versus Zerg, I couldn't help but pray for a late game tvsz , where Maru can get up to Ghosts with nuking potential and a group of Banshees wailing on Hatcheries expansions. so much fun to watch! Starcraft always seems to surprise me.
I doubted Stats so many times this season in GSL. I doubted that he would get out of his Ro16 group with pure PvPs against some of the best PvPers in the world (sOs, herO, Trap). Thought Classic would 4-0 or 4-1 him. Thought soO would 4-1 or 4-2 him. Classic was in great form, and soO was looking invincible in GSL. Yet Stats always proved me wrong. Now he's up against the hottest Terran, arguably the hottest player in the world right now in Maru. I won't doubt Stats this time. I think he'll take it 4-2 or 4-3.