• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 13:57
CEST 19:57
KST 02:57
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy5uThermal's 2v2 Tour: $15,000 Main Event14Serral wins EWC 202549Tournament Spotlight: FEL Cracow 202510Power Rank - Esports World Cup 202580
Community News
Weekly Cups (Aug 4-10): MaxPax wins a triple5SC2's Safe House 2 - October 18 & 195Weekly Cups (Jul 28-Aug 3): herO doubles up6LiuLi Cup - August 2025 Tournaments5[BSL 2025] H2 - Team Wars, Weeklies & SB Ladder10
StarCraft 2
General
RSL Revival patreon money discussion thread #1: Maru - Greatest Players of All Time Lambo Talks: The Future of SC2 and more... Team Liquid Map Contest #21 - Presented by Monster Energy uThermal's 2v2 Tour: $15,000 Main Event
Tourneys
Enki Epic Series #5 - TaeJa vs Classic (SC Evo) Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series SEL Masters #5 - Korea vs Russia (SC Evo) ByuN vs TaeJa Bo7 SC Evo Showmatch
Strategy
Custom Maps
External Content
Mutation # 486 Watch the Skies Mutation # 485 Death from Below Mutation # 484 Magnetic Pull Mutation #239 Bad Weather
Brood War
General
StarCraft player reflex TE scores New season has just come in ladder BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Simultaneous Streaming by CasterMuse Google Play ASL (Season 20) Announced
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues KCM 2025 Season 3 Small VOD Thread 2.0 [ASL20] Online Qualifiers Day 2
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fighting Spirit mining rates [G] Mineral Boosting Muta micro map competition
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Total Annihilation Server - TAForever Nintendo Switch Thread Beyond All Reason [MMORPG] Tree of Savior (Successor of Ragnarok)
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine US Politics Mega-thread The Games Industry And ATVI Bitcoin discussion thread
Fan Clubs
INnoVation Fan Club SKT1 Classic Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread [Manga] One Piece Movie Discussion! Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Gtx660 graphics card replacement Installation of Windows 10 suck at "just a moment" Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
TeamLiquid Team Shirt On Sale The Automated Ban List
Blogs
Gaming After Dark: Poor Slee…
TrAiDoS
[Girl blog} My fema…
artosisisthebest
Sharpening the Filtration…
frozenclaw
ASL S20 English Commentary…
namkraft
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 606 users

December Aligulac Balance Report - Page 5

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 All
Sapphire.lux
Profile Joined July 2010
Romania2620 Posts
January 03 2016 11:56 GMT
#81
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.
Head Coach Park: "They should buff tanks!"
cheekymonkey
Profile Joined January 2014
France1387 Posts
January 03 2016 12:51 GMT
#82
On January 03 2016 13:06 dainbramage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2016 11:59 cheekymonkey wrote:
On January 03 2016 11:50 Lexender wrote:
On January 03 2016 09:51 Athenau wrote:
There's no reason to make this assumption though. We clearly have a race population mismatch.

Relative size doesn't matter. Even if you have, for example, a population of 100 zerg players and only 10 protoss players, the number of ways to match a top 10% zerg player with a bottom 10% protoss player is the same as the other way around. The problem is symmetric.


No because its not a randomized experiment where you check all variants, if there is 100 zerg players and 10 protoss players, sure at some point a top zerg and a top protoss will meet, but until that point the protoss players may have defeated 10 bottom zerg players while the zerg player may have played ten mirrors wich will skew balance, wich is why not only non-mirrors have to be checked but mirrors too.


This is exactly why it makes sense to weight the win/loss statistics according to the players respective ELO rank parameters. So that if a zerg player has a 60% chance of winning against a lower level protoss, a win will be weighted as some number < 1, and conversely the protoss winning will be weighted by some number > 1.

However, given an imbalance meta, I suspect that in time as the ELO rankings will adjust and stabilize, it will stop representing the relative skill levels between players, and rather reflect a combination of skill level and current racial advantages/disadvantages. So in time, this weighted calculation might stabilize around even racial winrates. I would appreciate someone well-versed in statistics to chime in on this.


What you're asking for is the bottom graph in the Aligulac report. But you run into the same problem here. Racial balance influences players' Elos, much like player skill influences overall winrates, so it'll always trend towards 0. The only thing it might help you with is determining how a change affects a matchup. E.g. if the map pool changes and you see zerg shoot up, you know the new pool is more zerg favourable than the last one - but only as a comparison to the previous pool, not that it's necessarily 'good'. And you'll see it fall back to even as Elos adjust.


Wow, I completely missed the bottom graph. It addresses my second question exactly. It can give some indication of imbalance though, by looking at the overall increase in ratings for each race. If a race on average got a higher ranking during the span of a month, then this implies that something has changed with the balance of the game/meta.

But I suspect that even the flat racial winrates will stabilize around 50% due to tournament qualification.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5217 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-04 08:14:34
January 04 2016 08:11 GMT
#83
On January 03 2016 20:56 Sapphire.lux wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.


I didn't mention the Zerg nerfs because Zerg isn't suffering. There is some irony when a race that is doing poorly is receiving nerfs without corresponding buffs.
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:11:21
January 07 2016 15:26 GMT
#84
EDIT: oops posted this to the wrong thread!
royalroadweed
Profile Joined April 2013
United States8301 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:03:55
January 07 2016 15:48 GMT
#85
lol that PvZ stat warms my cold black heart.
"Nerfing Toss can just make them stronger"
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 6h 4m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
mcanning 295
Hui .126
ProTech114
BRAT_OK 69
MindelVK 26
StarCraft: Brood War
Britney 25981
Rain 7252
Bisu 815
Larva 688
Shuttle 512
Snow 254
Zeus 112
Mong 111
ggaemo 86
Hyun 76
[ Show more ]
sSak 49
yabsab 47
HiyA 29
Backho 28
TY 28
Rock 15
Gretorp15
JulyZerg 15
soO 14
scan(afreeca) 11
IntoTheRainbow 6
SilentControl 5
Stormgate
TKL 155
JuggernautJason81
UpATreeSC49
Dota 2
Gorgc7764
qojqva3748
Dendi943
Counter-Strike
oskar141
PGG 29
Super Smash Bros
Chillindude77
Other Games
Beastyqt486
RotterdaM412
FrodaN324
Fuzer 271
KnowMe205
ArmadaUGS136
PiGStarcraft103
ViBE70
Trikslyr55
Mew2King54
StateSC225
Organizations
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 23 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• 3DClanTV 55
• davetesta30
• Hinosc 14
• iHatsuTV 9
• Reevou 7
• Kozan
• sooper7s
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Migwel
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
StarCraft: Brood War
• HerbMon 27
• Pr0nogo 9
• Michael_bg 4
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
League of Legends
• Nemesis4334
• Jankos1751
• TFBlade863
Other Games
• imaqtpie2589
• Shiphtur297
Upcoming Events
OSC
6h 4m
The PondCast
16h 4m
WardiTV Summer Champion…
17h 4m
Replay Cast
1d 6h
LiuLi Cup
1d 17h
Online Event
2 days
SC Evo League
2 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
2 days
CSO Contender
2 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
[ Show More ]
WardiTV Summer Champion…
3 days
SC Evo League
3 days
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
3 days
Afreeca Starleague
4 days
Sharp vs Ample
Larva vs Stork
Wardi Open
4 days
RotterdaM Event
4 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Replay Cast
5 days
Afreeca Starleague
5 days
JyJ vs TY
Bisu vs Speed
WardiTV Summer Champion…
5 days
Afreeca Starleague
6 days
Mini vs TBD
Soma vs sSak
WardiTV Summer Champion…
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

StarCon 2025 Philadelphia
FEL Cracow 2025
CC Div. A S7

Ongoing

Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
BSL 20 Team Wars
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 3
BSL 21 Qualifiers
WardiTV Summer 2025
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
HCC Europe
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025

Upcoming

CSL Season 18: Qualifier 1
ASL Season 20
CSLAN 3
CSL 2025 AUTUMN (S18)
LASL Season 20
BSL Season 21
BSL 21 Team A
RSL Revival: Season 2
Maestros of the Game
SEL Season 2 Championship
PGL Masters Bucharest 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters Fall
Thunderpick World Champ.
CS Asia Championships 2025
Roobet Cup 2025
ESL Pro League S22
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.