• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 08:57
CEST 14:57
KST 21:57
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)15Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0TL Team Map Contest #5: Presented by Monster Energy6Code S RO8 Preview: herO, Zoun, Bunny, Classic7Code S RO8 Preview: Rogue, GuMiho, Solar, Maru3
Community News
Esports World Cup 2025 - Final Player Roster2Weekly Cups (June 16-22): Clem strikes back0Weekly Cups (June 9-15): herO doubles on GSL week4Firefly suspended by EWC, replaced by Lancer12Classic & herO RO8 Interviews: "I think it’s time to teach [Rogue] a lesson."2
StarCraft 2
General
Esports World Cup 2025 - Final Player Roster Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025) Weekly Cups (June 16-22): Clem strikes back Weekly Cups (June 9-15): herO doubles on GSL week The SCII GOAT: A statistical Evaluation
Tourneys
Monday Nights Weeklies EWC 2025 Online Qualifiers (May 28-June 1, June 21-22) WardiTV Mondays RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers [G] Darkgrid Layout
Custom Maps
[UMS] Zillion Zerglings
External Content
Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome Mutation # 478 Instant Karma Mutation # 477 Slow and Steady Mutation # 476 Charnel House
Brood War
General
bonjwa.tv: my AI project that translates BW videos BW General Discussion Who wrote this nonsense about Flash? BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ StarCraft & BroodWar Campaign Speedrun Quest
Tourneys
[BSL20] ProLeague Bracket Stage - WB Finals & LBR3 [Megathread] Daily Proleagues [BSL20] ProLeague Bracket Stage - LB Round 4 & 5 [ASL19] Grand Finals
Strategy
I am doing this better than progamers do. Simple Questions, Simple Answers [G] How to get started on ladder as a new Z player
Other Games
General Games
Nintendo Switch Thread Path of Exile What do you want from future RTS games? Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Beyond All Reason
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine Russo-Ukrainian War Thread UK Politics Mega-thread Echoes of Revolution and Separation
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
[Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread Korean Music Discussion
Sports
2024 - 2025 Football Thread TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 NHL Playoffs 2024 Formula 1 Discussion
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
How Pro Gamers Cope with Str…
TrAiDoS
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Heero Yuy & the Tax…
KrillinFromwales
I was completely wrong ab…
jameswatts
Need Your Help/Advice
Glider
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 32461 users

December Aligulac Balance Report - Page 5

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 All
Sapphire.lux
Profile Joined July 2010
Romania2620 Posts
January 03 2016 11:56 GMT
#81
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.
Head Coach Park: "They should buff tanks!"
cheekymonkey
Profile Joined January 2014
France1387 Posts
January 03 2016 12:51 GMT
#82
On January 03 2016 13:06 dainbramage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2016 11:59 cheekymonkey wrote:
On January 03 2016 11:50 Lexender wrote:
On January 03 2016 09:51 Athenau wrote:
There's no reason to make this assumption though. We clearly have a race population mismatch.

Relative size doesn't matter. Even if you have, for example, a population of 100 zerg players and only 10 protoss players, the number of ways to match a top 10% zerg player with a bottom 10% protoss player is the same as the other way around. The problem is symmetric.


No because its not a randomized experiment where you check all variants, if there is 100 zerg players and 10 protoss players, sure at some point a top zerg and a top protoss will meet, but until that point the protoss players may have defeated 10 bottom zerg players while the zerg player may have played ten mirrors wich will skew balance, wich is why not only non-mirrors have to be checked but mirrors too.


This is exactly why it makes sense to weight the win/loss statistics according to the players respective ELO rank parameters. So that if a zerg player has a 60% chance of winning against a lower level protoss, a win will be weighted as some number < 1, and conversely the protoss winning will be weighted by some number > 1.

However, given an imbalance meta, I suspect that in time as the ELO rankings will adjust and stabilize, it will stop representing the relative skill levels between players, and rather reflect a combination of skill level and current racial advantages/disadvantages. So in time, this weighted calculation might stabilize around even racial winrates. I would appreciate someone well-versed in statistics to chime in on this.


What you're asking for is the bottom graph in the Aligulac report. But you run into the same problem here. Racial balance influences players' Elos, much like player skill influences overall winrates, so it'll always trend towards 0. The only thing it might help you with is determining how a change affects a matchup. E.g. if the map pool changes and you see zerg shoot up, you know the new pool is more zerg favourable than the last one - but only as a comparison to the previous pool, not that it's necessarily 'good'. And you'll see it fall back to even as Elos adjust.


Wow, I completely missed the bottom graph. It addresses my second question exactly. It can give some indication of imbalance though, by looking at the overall increase in ratings for each race. If a race on average got a higher ranking during the span of a month, then this implies that something has changed with the balance of the game/meta.

But I suspect that even the flat racial winrates will stabilize around 50% due to tournament qualification.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5217 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-04 08:14:34
January 04 2016 08:11 GMT
#83
On January 03 2016 20:56 Sapphire.lux wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.


I didn't mention the Zerg nerfs because Zerg isn't suffering. There is some irony when a race that is doing poorly is receiving nerfs without corresponding buffs.
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:11:21
January 07 2016 15:26 GMT
#84
EDIT: oops posted this to the wrong thread!
royalroadweed
Profile Joined April 2013
United States8301 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:03:55
January 07 2016 15:48 GMT
#85
lol that PvZ stat warms my cold black heart.
"Nerfing Toss can just make them stronger"
Prev 1 2 3 4 5 All
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Wardi Open
11:00
#41
WardiTV1064
OGKoka 584
Rex184
CranKy Ducklings105
IntoTheiNu 46
Liquipedia
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
OGKoka 584
Harstem 337
Lowko222
Rex 184
Creator 38
StarCraft: Brood War
Hyuk 1912
EffOrt 909
actioN 473
BeSt 404
Stork 359
Mini 343
Snow 166
firebathero 161
Light 159
ZerO 131
[ Show more ]
JYJ126
Dewaltoss 105
Mind 76
ToSsGirL 74
Rush 53
TY 50
PianO 37
Yoon 34
Shinee 34
Backho 34
Icarus 23
soO 17
GoRush 12
ajuk12(nOOB) 8
Noble 8
Bale 6
Hm[arnc] 6
Terrorterran 1
Dota 2
Gorgc3616
XaKoH 505
XcaliburYe277
qojqva131
febbydoto9
League of Legends
JimRising 472
Dendi305
Counter-Strike
x6flipin639
Super Smash Bros
C9.Mang0341
Mew2King134
Other Games
singsing1805
hiko617
B2W.Neo418
crisheroes352
Hui .183
SortOf104
ZerO(Twitch)20
ArmadaUGS10
Liquid`VortiX0
Organizations
Dota 2
PGL Dota 2 - Main Stream20061
PGL Dota 2 - Secondary Stream5004
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 10 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
Upcoming Events
Monday Night Weeklies
3h 3m
Replay Cast
21h 3m
PiGosaur Monday
1d 11h
Replay Cast
2 days
The PondCast
2 days
Replay Cast
3 days
BSL: ProLeague
5 days
SOOP
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
5 days
BSL: ProLeague
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Rose Open S1
2025 GSL S2
Heroes 10 EU

Ongoing

JPL Season 2
BSL 2v2 Season 3
BSL Season 20
Acropolis #3
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 2
CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Championship of Russia 2025
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters
CCT Season 2 Global Finals
IEM Melbourne 2025
YaLLa Compass Qatar 2025
PGL Bucharest 2025

Upcoming

CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
K-Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
SEL Season 2 Championship
Esports World Cup 2025
HSC XXVII
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.