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December Aligulac Balance Report - Page 5

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Sapphire.lux
Profile Joined July 2010
Romania2620 Posts
January 03 2016 11:56 GMT
#81
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.
Head Coach Park: "They should buff tanks!"
cheekymonkey
Profile Joined January 2014
France1387 Posts
January 03 2016 12:51 GMT
#82
On January 03 2016 13:06 dainbramage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 03 2016 11:59 cheekymonkey wrote:
On January 03 2016 11:50 Lexender wrote:
On January 03 2016 09:51 Athenau wrote:
There's no reason to make this assumption though. We clearly have a race population mismatch.

Relative size doesn't matter. Even if you have, for example, a population of 100 zerg players and only 10 protoss players, the number of ways to match a top 10% zerg player with a bottom 10% protoss player is the same as the other way around. The problem is symmetric.


No because its not a randomized experiment where you check all variants, if there is 100 zerg players and 10 protoss players, sure at some point a top zerg and a top protoss will meet, but until that point the protoss players may have defeated 10 bottom zerg players while the zerg player may have played ten mirrors wich will skew balance, wich is why not only non-mirrors have to be checked but mirrors too.


This is exactly why it makes sense to weight the win/loss statistics according to the players respective ELO rank parameters. So that if a zerg player has a 60% chance of winning against a lower level protoss, a win will be weighted as some number < 1, and conversely the protoss winning will be weighted by some number > 1.

However, given an imbalance meta, I suspect that in time as the ELO rankings will adjust and stabilize, it will stop representing the relative skill levels between players, and rather reflect a combination of skill level and current racial advantages/disadvantages. So in time, this weighted calculation might stabilize around even racial winrates. I would appreciate someone well-versed in statistics to chime in on this.


What you're asking for is the bottom graph in the Aligulac report. But you run into the same problem here. Racial balance influences players' Elos, much like player skill influences overall winrates, so it'll always trend towards 0. The only thing it might help you with is determining how a change affects a matchup. E.g. if the map pool changes and you see zerg shoot up, you know the new pool is more zerg favourable than the last one - but only as a comparison to the previous pool, not that it's necessarily 'good'. And you'll see it fall back to even as Elos adjust.


Wow, I completely missed the bottom graph. It addresses my second question exactly. It can give some indication of imbalance though, by looking at the overall increase in ratings for each race. If a race on average got a higher ranking during the span of a month, then this implies that something has changed with the balance of the game/meta.

But I suspect that even the flat racial winrates will stabilize around 50% due to tournament qualification.
BronzeKnee
Profile Joined March 2011
United States5221 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-04 08:14:34
January 04 2016 08:11 GMT
#83
On January 03 2016 20:56 Sapphire.lux wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 02 2016 16:59 BronzeKnee wrote:

Protoss is pretty much in free fall, especially in PvZ (haven't had a win rate that imbalanced for three years, and PvZ is more imbalanced than ever), and yet nerfs are planned for Pylon Overcharge and the Adept... interesting.


It's also interesting how you conveniently forget to mention that there are 2 significant Zerg nerfs on the horizon: Zergling attack speed upgrade bonus decreased from 40% to 30% and Viper spell damage reduced from 90 to 60.

The PO i'd call more of a change rather then nerf, as it get stronger in some situations and not so much in others.


I didn't mention the Zerg nerfs because Zerg isn't suffering. There is some irony when a race that is doing poorly is receiving nerfs without corresponding buffs.
Deleted User 3420
Profile Blog Joined May 2003
24492 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:11:21
January 07 2016 15:26 GMT
#84
EDIT: oops posted this to the wrong thread!
royalroadweed
Profile Joined April 2013
United States8301 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-01-07 16:03:55
January 07 2016 15:48 GMT
#85
lol that PvZ stat warms my cold black heart.
"Nerfing Toss can just make them stronger"
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