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Matchfixing is a very serious offence and accusations of matchfixing should not be made lightly. Please avoid making accusations against specific individuals unless you have substantial proof, or until further information is released. (0620 KST) |
On February 28 2015 15:43 TronJovolta wrote:
Gotchya. I certainly did with the Inno match. I still don't get the dark/san thing and never did. San is just not very good.
San is/was a PvZ specialist who had recently beaten Dark convincingly at the time 2-0. He was bet in to being a 5-1 favourite in a best of 1. Yes, Dark was the favourite there, but not a 5-1 favourite in a best of 1, the same way Super was not a 3 to 1 favourite over Innovation in Map 1 but an underdog in maps 2 and 3, and the same way Dream was not a 7-1 favourite over Super in Map 1 only (but no other maps) but the rest of the maps less than a 2-1 favourite, this is the same Super who was apparently a favourite against Innovation but only in Map 1 but an underdog in the rest of the matches.
Five or six figures in bets came in on ONE specific map in each of these matches. Every single time, the person being bet on won the match in question, and their opponent played particularly poorly. Connect the dots.
These are literally the ONLY three times that lines have EVER moved that far to my knowledge in best of 1s. Is Dream literally the biggest favourite over Super of any starcraft match that has ever taken place, but only specifically in Map 1 of that series and in no other maps? Because that's what the betting lines said.
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For what it's worth, Dsousa's post that we was tempbanned for was worded harshly, but is a strong possibility in the event that this does not get investigated properly.
@Cascade, the Olimoley investigation is seperate to this issue, in that case bettors were getting access to delayed streams but there were no allegations of players throwing matches. I'm making the allegation that match fixing is very likely to be happening, specifically in the three matches I listed, and if it isn't then SOMETHING must account for these irregularities because it is mathematically impossible that they are occurring 'naturally'.
I'm hoping Pinnacle will make a direct accusation this time so that Kespa have to respond. I can't say with certainty that match fixing is going on, but to put it in betting terms, I would risk a large portion of my net worth on the assertion that at least some of the matches I have identified as suspicious, if not all of them, were deliberately thrown by a player, or at the very least the matches outcomes were influenced by outside sources.
I actually wish it was up to me to investigate, but unfortunately I don't have access to Pinnacle's data (IP addresses etc) and Kespa's resources (access to the players in question) to conduct any sort of useful investigation. Kespa do have access to both of these things and not to conduct an investigation is negligence at best, and they are potentially complicit in wrongdoing at worst. That said, there is a chance that they are conducting an internal investigation and we just haven't heard about it because it hasn't been completed. I'm hoping it's that.
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@mods, if any of the wording of my posts is unacceptable, please let me know. I've attempted to stay within the rules with my posting here while also providing my opinions.
This is probably the single most important Starcraft 2 story of the year if i'm right, and objectively the data says that I am right.
If anyone has any questions i'm happy to answer them to the best of my ability. Right now I would strongly warn against betting on Starcraft 2 even through legitimate bookmakers like Pinnacle until such a point that these matches in question where Pinnacle has cancelled bets due to suspicious activity have been properly investigated (and I say this as a substantial lifetime winner, my record both this season and last are publicly recorded on the poker/betting forum I post on, no idea if i'm allowed to say names of other forums)
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On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense.
You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot.
Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day.
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China6329 Posts
On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day.
Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map.
Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map.
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On February 28 2015 18:10 digmouse wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day. Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map. Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map.
Out of curiosity, did Inno go on to win the series after having lost the first game?
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On February 28 2015 20:08 Cascade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 18:10 digmouse wrote:On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day. Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map. Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map. Out of curiosity, did Inno go on to win the series after having lost the first game?
Yes, and in a somewhat dominating fashion (or at least he didn't seem to struggle a lot).
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On February 28 2015 20:21 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 20:08 Cascade wrote:On February 28 2015 18:10 digmouse wrote:On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day. Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map. Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map. Out of curiosity, did Inno go on to win the series after having lost the first game? Yes, and in a somewhat dominating fashion (or at least he didn't seem to struggle a lot).
Which I guess rules out the scenario of someone having inside information of Inno being horribly out of form due to [whatever reason]?
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Nimbus is a good T map, but only to the tune of 60% winrate, which for two balanced players would set the line at -150 for the favourite. Assuming the T player is also a 2-1 favourite in a single map (generous here but possible) that would set the line to Dream being a 3-1 favourite. While it's possible he got bet into 7-1 legitimately... Pinnacle did declare the betting to have been manipulated so either they're super wrong, or they have more information than we do. For the map alone to have swung the betting, Dream would have to have been close to a 5-1 favourite on a neutral map - yet he wasn't bet on for the entire series to anywhere near that degree.
Would be nice if Pinnacle released more information this time.
On Overgrowth which is a 49.5% winrate for PvT map, Super was bet into extreme favouritism against Innovation. Yet one of the other maps was King Sejong which has a much better winrate for Protoss, and no money came on Super for that game.
San vs Dark was on Foxtrot Labs, which has a 50.7% winrate for Zerg, so the map was neutral roughly for that match.
Can't really draw conclusions for any of that other than yes, the map was good for Terran but not to the degree it made Dream a 7-1 favourite objectively over a single map even on Nimbus and that in the other two matches that Pinnacle question the legitimacy of, the map was under 51% winrate for both races and therefore balanced.
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On February 28 2015 20:59 Cascade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 20:21 OtherWorld wrote:On February 28 2015 20:08 Cascade wrote:On February 28 2015 18:10 digmouse wrote:On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day. Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map. Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map. Out of curiosity, did Inno go on to win the series after having lost the first game? Yes, and in a somewhat dominating fashion (or at least he didn't seem to struggle a lot). Which I guess rules out the scenario of someone having inside information of Inno being horribly out of form due to [whatever reason]?
Well yeah basically
It also means if he was 'incentivised' to lose a map it didn't guarantee a series loss. Also it was a 4 player group that was particularly weak so he would probably advance even if going to the losers match (which didnt even end up happening). Same with today's spot for Super, he'd be down a map but not out of the tournament or anything since it's a bo5.
In the San vs Dark spot, SKTT1 were favourites to win the match regardless of whether San won or lost his bo1, although him losing did obviously cost Startale a large % of their overall chance of victory
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As long as Kespa doesn't investigate this will lead to nothing i am afraid.
Which is a shame really, but i don't think anyone else is really capable of doing something here :/
What i don't understand though:
I imagine you need to create an account on pinnacle, and it would make sense to have some restrictions after creating a new one. So how hard can it be for pinnacle to do something here? They should have the data to research this case, no?
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On February 28 2015 20:21 OtherWorld wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2015 20:08 Cascade wrote:On February 28 2015 18:10 digmouse wrote:On February 28 2015 17:52 duckk wrote:On February 28 2015 17:03 Swoopae wrote:On February 28 2015 15:08 TronJovolta wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't get the scandal? Dark is WAAAAY fucking better than San. San blows yo. Of course he smashed him. Inno is WAAAAAAY better than Super. Of course he smashed him. If San blows you can get almost even money on Yonghwa against him today.Go collect your free money. Off topic though. On topic, in Innovation vs Super, it was SUPER who was the betting favourite to the tune of something like 3-1 from memory, but ONLY in game 1. He was something like a 2-1 underdog in maps 2 and 3 and for the series. Innovation remained a substantial favourite for games 2 and 3 and the series. He was a big underdog for Game 1. He lost Game 1. He then won games 2 and 3 and the series. If you do not think this is suspicious you have no understanding of betting markets or common sense. You have to keep in mind player styles and the maps they are on. ( I don't know which maps were played, just saying in general). If life plays maru in the finals and map 1 was steppes of war, maru is likely a 10-1 favorite on map 1, but an underdog on every other map. In warcraft 3 orc vs ud on Secret Valley or Lost Temple you bet on the orc even with 5000-1 odds(literally). The same thing with betting human vs undead on Echo isles. I could see dark realistically with 4-1 odds on foxtrot. Also, san's facial reaction to losing his msc seemed pretty genuine and that he was just having an off day. Innovation vs Super map 1 was on Overgrowth, widely regarded as a balanced map. Dream vs Super map 1 was on Nimbus. generally considered a heavy Terran favored map. Out of curiosity, did Inno go on to win the series after having lost the first game? Yes, and in a somewhat dominating fashion (or at least he didn't seem to struggle a lot).
Remembering the game on Overgrowth, it was pretty even up to the midgame when the armies clashed near the watchtower on Innovation's side of the map and Inno's army just melted. I remember thinking at the time that it was very disappointing he would lose so much of his army in such a straight up fight, like he didn't kite or focus fire at all, just a-moved and got completely mopped up. Now this is just from memory so I could be forgetting some things, like maybe there were forcefields I couldn't see, but it was just overall a pretty pathetic way to lose a game imo, like something that happens to me on ladder down in gold league 
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Red Viper - Yes, Pinnacle have already said they have the data on the accounts in question and bets made (all accounts must be linked to a real life identity to withdraw) and while they're not willing to make info about their anti-fraud algorithms public, they are willing to share the relevant information with a Kespa/Blizzard investigation. It was in the Pinnacle statement here on TL. The ball is in Kespa's court now, the sportsbook is willing to cooperate with an investigation if they actually want to get to the bottom of this and either find the match fixers so they can be punished or confirm that match fixing didn't take place and remove a cloud of suspicion from their leagues/some players.
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I haven't watched much SC2 lately and now I'm starting to question if there's any point. One of the top players gets accused of throwing a specific game and nothing is done about it? It really seems like the lesson Kespa learned from the BW match fixing scandal is to try to ignore the problem (or if you're optimistic, deal with it behind the scenes).
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Three of the top players now actually. Well, not accused directly, but they are clearly under suspicion as the world's most successful sportsbook officially has declared that the matches were not contested on a fair basis, refunded all bets on the matches and agreed to cooperate with any Kespa investigation, at the very least that warrants investigation
I'm not going to quit watching Starcraft because of it, but i'm sure as hell less interested than I would be if I knew for a fact that the matches were being contested on a legitimate basis.
Hoping this is the last we see of this situation occurring... but unless something is done, it won't be. I'll post next time the line is suspicious before the game happens assuming i'm handicapping in real time. If even one of these suspicious line movements results in the player all of the money was bet on losing, i'll hold my tongue after that... but I doubt it'll ever happen.
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While I agree that Kespa and BLizzard really should investigate (I think most agree on that?), I can see why they'd choose to investigate without telling anyone. If they'd publicly announce that they are investigating potential match fixing, it could do more more damage to the viewer number and general reputation than doing a secret investigation and try to shut it down while keeping as quiet as possible. If it turns out that it is a matter of match fixing, I guess it'll be hard to contain that information, but if not, I think they hope to keep it as quiet as possible. Even posting here in this thread (or at some betting site) would be close enough to an official announcement that don't dare to.
So all in all, I find it pretty likely that Blizzard/Kespa are doing investigations right now, but keeping it quiet. The alternative, that Blizard/Kespa are not doing anything, doesn't seem like a good business decision, as it is very likely that this will continue and it will reach the wider public at some point.
On that note, is this being discussed on bnet forums? Are the mods there closing threads discussing it? Anyone willing to go over and create a thread there and see what happens? 
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And on another note: if it is indeed match-fixing, then they are crappy at it, as they don't get the money (at least not from pinnacle), but fire all kinds of alarms. Or do the bets go through on the illegal sites, where the real fixers are likely hanging out (?), and there are just some rouge betters that are aware of the fixing that are trying to get some money from pinnacle as well, but as they are not coordinated, the line movement gets too large, and the pinnacle algorithm fires?
Has there been other games (maybe even with the same players involved?), where the line-movement showed similar tendencies (ie large last-minute bets on the winning player in the first game in a boX, without signs in the following games), but not enough to fire the pinnacle detection algorithm? That would be a sign of successful, more coordinated, betting on a fixed match (right?). Are these games just the tip of the iceberg? :o In fact, if the information from swoopae is accurate that it has been a bad month or two (more than random?) for most "professional" sc2 bettors, that'd be consistent with other games, where the bets actually went through, also being manipulated. I guess most serious sc2 bettors will take more or less the same bets (that have favorable odds), so it'd be possible for all serious bettors to be unlucky at the same time. Do you think the downswing is much more than expected from variance swoopae?
Also, it'd be interesting to know how the betting went in the illegal korean betting community on these games.... I guess that'll be harder to find out...
And just as disclaimer, I dont want to accuse anyone, or say that one or the other story is more likely. Just trying to figure out what kind of information that can help explain the irregular line movements.
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On March 01 2015 17:45 Cascade wrote:
And just as disclaimer, I dont want to accuse anyone, or say that one or the other story is more likely. Just trying to figure out what kind of information that can help explain the irregular line movements.
The problem is that there's no other story. The best alternative seems to be 'something we haven't thought about'. Which is always possible of course.
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On March 01 2015 17:45 Cascade wrote:And on another note: if it is indeed match-fixing, then they are crappy at it, as they don't get the money (at least not from pinnacle), but fire all kinds of alarms. Or do the bets go through on the illegal sites, where the real fixers are likely hanging out (?), and there are just some rouge betters that are aware of the fixing that are trying to get some money from pinnacle as well, but as they are not coordinated, the line movement gets too large, and the pinnacle algorithm fires? Has there been other games (maybe even with the same players involved?), where the line-movement showed similar tendencies (ie large last-minute bets on the winning player in the first game in a boX, without signs in the following games), but not enough to fire the pinnacle detection algorithm? That would be a sign of successful, more coordinated, betting on a fixed match (right?). Are these games just the tip of the iceberg? :o In fact, if the information from swoopae is accurate that it has been a bad month or two (more than random?) for most "professional" sc2 bettors, that'd be consistent with other games, where the bets actually went through, also being manipulated. I guess most serious sc2 bettors will take more or less the same bets (that have favorable odds), so it'd be possible for all serious bettors to be unlucky at the same time. Do you think the downswing is much more than expected from variance swoopae? Also, it'd be interesting to know how the betting went in the illegal korean betting community on these games.... I guess that'll be harder to find out... And just as disclaimer, I dont want to accuse anyone, or say that one or the other story is more likely. Just trying to figure out what kind of information that can help explain the irregular line movements.
You're second paragraph is more or less what must be going on. It's naive to assume that they've only tried these 3 times and got caught each time. You don't do things again and again if they aren't successful. And Pinnacle would be in a tough spot if they never caught irregularities. So it's just like anything else, sometimes the bad guys win, sometimes the good guys win.
It would be interesting to see what lines looked in other sites, especially the the illegal sites, although their method of fixing bets is one that 100% does not work in live braodcasted games.
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Got a final statement from Pinnacle regarding Dream vs Super game 1. They announced they would not be making another public statement but that they stand by their decision to cancel all bets on that match due to the 'irregular betting activity' on it. They went on to say
Dear Sir,
We are not going to release any specifics on what happened in this match.
We believe it is safe to bet on E-sports lines with us as we protect our clients from these irregularities by cancelling all the wagers on lines with these irregular betting patterns.
Kind Regards,
Customer Service Department / Pinnacle Sports
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EPT
