TLPD winrates April 2012

On May 03 2012 21:40 Raid wrote:
Can terrans use the same arguments that zerg and protoss used of that we should "balance the game at the highest level" and since terran doing so bad in korea they need buff?

On May 03 2012 21:40 Raid wrote:
Can terrans use the same arguments that zerg and protoss used of that we should "balance the game at the highest level" and since terran doing so bad in korea they need buff?

On May 03 2012 21:40 Raid wrote:
Can terrans use the same arguments that zerg and protoss used of that we should "balance the game at the highest level" and since terran doing so bad in korea they need buff?

On May 03 2012 23:00 hzflank wrote:
I say this every month but I still dont understand how people do not realise that: the korean sample size is too small so the data makes no sense and just changed wildly from month to month.

On May 03 2012 23:12 Telenil wrote:
Edit:
By the way, statistics question: I guess the "global" results have smaller error bars because their are more games involved,but since these global results are made from each of the separate matchups below, wouldn't it make more sense to sum the errors quadratically instead? Like, if you have a 3% uncertainty on TvZ and a 3% uncertainty on TvP, claiming there is a 2% uncertainty on the global T win rate looks horribly wrong from my physicist perspective.

On May 03 2012 23:17 Equity213 wrote:
wtf korean terrans < 50%

that just made my day :D
Finally protoss showing some strength, so awsome.

On May 03 2012 23:22 Rannasha wrote:


You sum the absolute errors quadratically. The graph shows the relative errors, since winrates are just the fraction of games won. The error on winrates is the relative error on the number of games won. If you add up data from 2 independent sources, you expect the relative error to decrease, which is what happens.

On May 03 2012 23:39 Lightspeaker wrote:


I wouldn't get the champagne out yet. Korean sample size is small and the win rates there are absurdly volatile. Compare the PvT matchup between March and April.

Actually what I did find interesting is how those months repeat what we saw in October/November of last year almost exactly. Specifically a massive and statistically significant imbalance (as demonstrated by the non-overlapping error bars) in favour of Terran swinging to a non-significant increase in favour of Protoss the next month. I wonder if that could be significant somehow...did something happen in Korea in March/April that also happened October/November?

On May 03 2012 23:56 Telenil wrote:
Here the two sources measure different things, don't they?
Hm, I guess it's just the "global ratio" that is meaningless as far as balance is concerned. Indeed a race could win 60%+-2 against the 2nd and 40%+-2 against the third, and have a 50%+-1 global ratio, it's just that the 50+-1 would have no significance as far as balance is concerned.

That's probably what confused me in the first place, thanks for the clarification.

On May 03 2012 23:33 SarcasmMonster wrote:
For comparison, here are Brood War winrates from 2007-2011.

+ Show Spoiler +

Look at ZvP, where Z is favored for 2 years straight, or how Protoss is the lowest race from 2008-2010! Nothing in the April winrates for SC2 worries me too much.

On May 04 2012 00:35 Cereb wrote:
" ZvT 49,9% - 50,1%"

NO wonder I can't win in this mu!






Yeah really interesting to look at. SC2's graphs almost seems better in comparison

On May 03 2012 23:33 SarcasmMonster wrote:
For comparison, here are Brood War winrates from 2007-2011.

+ Show Spoiler +

Look at ZvP, where Z is favored for 2 years straight, or how Protoss is the lowest race from 2008-2010! Nothing in the April winrates for SC2 worries me too much.

On May 03 2012 21:39 ZenithM wrote:
It may be the first time in the history of the game that Korean Terran have less than 50% winrate overall.
How the mighty have fallen.

On May 03 2012 21:40 Raid wrote:
Can terrans use the same arguments that zerg and protoss used of that we should "balance the game at the highest level" and since terran doing so bad in korea they need buff?

Can someone explain the numbers to me? Like it says for korea that 157 games were played, but then right under it for zvp there are 1207 games.. so there were more games played for 1 matchup then there were for all of them?....I don't get it

On May 04 2012 04:51 cmcaneff5502 wrote:
Doesn't it seem odd that all of a sudden there are a bunch of "really good protoss players?" I'd say the rate shifts aren't because a miraculous rise of toss players but pretty obviously because of game balancing

On May 04 2012 05:41 p1cKLes wrote:
Personally, what I think it’s due from is Protoss has finally figured out how to make it to the late game. Over the last 2 years all of Terran’s strategies have centered around early timing attacks, because that’s where Terran is the strongest. This caused a slew of games ending early and never making it past the midgame. Now, Protoss has learned how to defend almost all of Terran’s early game strategies from the 3rax stim to the 1/1/1. So now we are finally seeing the late game of TvP develop and finding that Protoss’s tech is pretty damn strong, but I think it’s too early to make a call as to whether its due to balance or another game shift is needed (allowing Terran to come up with something new).

On May 04 2012 04:29 Aunvilgod wrote:
We are currently in a big shift of the metagame. I would wait to see how everything turns out. And how good Mech actually is in TvP.

On May 04 2012 05:45 Sajaki wrote:
YAY! Terran winrates are absolute garbage. Now maybe blizzard will actually pay attention to our race when it comes to any game past 13-14 minutes! :D

On May 04 2012 05:53 Seam wrote:



Are we looking at the same graph?

On May 04 2012 06:12 dacimvrl wrote:
I was watching Ganzi's stream last night and he said: Let's all play Diablo 3 together, and have our own guild.

Everyone: Yeah, let's do that when D3 comes out.

Ganzi: We name our guild: fuckingprotossimba

trollololo

On May 04 2012 06:15 Gladiator333 wrote:


Thank you for your useful information, I'm sure this will contribute a lot to the graphs we see here in this thread!

On May 04 2012 06:11 Sajaki wrote:


Terran winrates are garbage = terran dropping from 62-46 and 58-44. That is a BIG change. Of course the Korean rates matter the most because metagame changes usually happen first in korea, and blizzard is balancing the games for the
top level of play i.e. korean server.

On May 04 2012 06:26 Seam wrote:



I would assume the korean section of the graph would actually matter the least.

Mainly due to having a very, very small sample size.

On May 04 2012 06:26 Seam wrote:



I would assume the korean section of the graph would actually matter the least.

Mainly due to having a very, very small sample size.

On May 04 2012 03:07 zmansman17 wrote:


Expect this to fall more. Even internationally, win rates have failed to dip below 50% for the reasons below. However, they will also follow the Korean trend.

-----

Rank 1 master Terran here and I'm astounded DK would not address Late game TvP. I've kept track of my win % on sc2gears and passed 20 in-game minutes -- I have only won a single TvP this entire season.

Given this disparity on an anecdotal level (my own), it may not have much significance. However, coupled with many other Rank 1-8 Master Terrans who also fail to win passed 20 in-game minutes, and have tracked a similar rate of failure on sc2gears, I'm guessing that this data exists within the released win rates per MU at least on our level, if not elsewhere.

A few explanations of the win rates: Many of the weaker Terran players have left the race entirely and switched to Protoss or Zerg. The evidence of this is in the proportion of Terran players to their Zerg and Protoss counterparts in the GM and Master leagues within NA and EU. Terran players have dropped to 1/4 of the race selections. (In KR, the Korean Terrans are on another level, and yet their representation is only equal).

Note that it is a possibility that the win rate of the remaining Terrans never changed, but the overall win rate of Terran simply increased from the reduction of the weaker Terran players.

Thus, this is one explanation of relatively even win rates TvP.

An alternative explanation of these win rates is that Terrans are opting for more All-in or Semi all-in mid game timings. Most good Terran players recognize that our Win % peters out as the game goes on, and so we go for timings when we have the greatest chance to win.

A more thorough discussion on balance would occur when Win % of Races were determined per unit of time (0-3 minutes, 3-6 minutes, etc.) and also by League and Server.

I feel that Terran has been pigeonholed into the Terran that we have today. All races should be able to perform relatively evenly at all points in the game, and the winner should be determined by the criterion of his skill, not overwhelmingly by the strength of a race at a certain point in time. If Blizzard finds that Terran has a disproportionate win rate from the 6-9 minute mark, but also a disproportionate loss ratio passed 20 minutes, then there should be adjustments made to weaken Terran at the 6-9 minute mark and strengthen Terran's late game options. I'll take another Rax/add-on timing nerf (given all of the implications) if it means Ravens get faster movement and HSM speed and something is done with BCs.

On May 04 2012 06:29 blade55555 wrote:


I disagree. You have to realize for the internation graph that it counts games such as stephano vs no named joe. Korean graph is almost purely GSL with code A/S players. International counts tournaments even if the top foreigners don't play in the smaller tournaments.

So hard to take the international seriously at all since it goes from super good player thorzain vs no named xxx player who is mid masters.

On May 04 2012 06:37 Seam wrote:


While it's true that it does show only GSL level players, you also have to consider not all players are at the same level, even in GSL. With a sample size that's really small, there's a lot of viables.

Or, for example, take the MVP vs Naniwa games. MVP beat Naniwa due to playing better, and out controlling Naniwa.(And 2 cheeses) Does that show anything about balance? 2 of the 4 games were cheese.


Overall, I'm saying we shouldn't use this in any way, shape, or form as a means to base aruguments of balance on. It's good to bring up, yes, but with small sample sizes it can't be trusted as an accurate scale of balance.
(I'm tired and having trouble wording things)

On May 04 2012 06:38 IshinShishi wrote:
Finally the problems lower terrans(masters NA) have been dealing with for months have finally hit the upper echelon, not that I needed this confirmation as I've already jumped ship , anyways, Good luck 'fellow' terrans!

On May 04 2012 06:31 Chemist391 wrote:


If your advantage occurs before mine, then who is at an advantage?

On May 04 2012 07:04 Nibbler89 wrote:

Let's play a game, I'll give you a gun with 2 bullets and then start running around a city. If you can't kill me within 15 minutes you explode. Sound like a fun game?

On May 04 2012 07:15 SeaSwift wrote:


I think this post should be used as an example of where balance discussion inevitably leads.

It's either this or Hitler, folks.

On May 04 2012 06:38 IshinShishi wrote:
Finally the problems lower terrans(masters NA) have been dealing with for months have finally hit the upper echelon, not that I needed this confirmation as I've already jumped ship , anyways, Good luck 'fellow' terrans!

On May 04 2012 06:37 Seam wrote:


While it's true that it does show only GSL level players, you also have to consider not all players are at the same level, even in GSL. With a sample size that's really small, there's a lot of viables.

Or, for example, take the MVP vs Naniwa games. MVP beat Naniwa due to playing better, and out controlling Naniwa.(And 2 cheeses) Does that show anything about balance? 2 of the 4 games were cheese.


Overall, I'm saying we shouldn't use this in any way, shape, or form as a means to base aruguments of balance on. It's good to bring up, yes, but with small sample sizes it can't be trusted as an accurate scale of balance.
(I'm tired and having trouble wording things)

On May 03 2012 21:40 Raid wrote:
Can terrans use the same arguments that zerg and protoss used of that we should "balance the game at the highest level" and since terran doing so bad in korea they need buff?

On May 04 2012 07:15 SeaSwift wrote:


I think this post should be used as an example of where balance discussion inevitably leads.

It's either this or Hitler, folks.

On May 04 2012 07:48 xrapture wrote:
idk, to me it just seems that in TvP, terran can't capitalize on his skill advantage like he can with the other matchups.

Mvp was the best player to ever touch the game (pre injury) and tvp was his worst matchup.

MMA is a Terran god and tvp is his worst matchup.

More often than not, if a Terran is good in 2 matchups and bad in one he's gonna be bad in tvp. (ryung, nada, supernova, demuslim, ganzi, + countless other pro Terrans that say tvp is their worst mu)

I think the problem is that with Protoss, if you have a signifigant advantage you can just a move and win the game (like it should be), but as Terran, the efficiency of zealots/archons and the game changing psi storm ability makes it super hard to capitilize on an advantage.

Plus, in TvT and TvZ it is hard to clean up drops cost effiecently, so if the Terran has better multitasking than his opponent he can capitalize on it. While toss can just feedback the medivac and warp in a couple zealots and clean up the drop with almost no effort or cost.

On May 04 2012 07:51 Let it Raine wrote:
i lost to morrow 1-2

giving terran the edge in the international graph!!

i want to see a round table of the best players in the world talking about balance.

On May 04 2012 03:07 zmansman17 wrote:

A few explanations of the win rates: Many of the weaker Terran players have left the race entirely and switched to Protoss or Zerg. The evidence of this is in the proportion of Terran players to their Zerg and Protoss counterparts in the GM and Master leagues within NA and EU. Terran players have dropped to 1/4 of the race selections. (In KR, the Korean Terrans are on another level, and yet their representation is only equal).

Note that it is a possibility that the win rate of the remaining Terrans never changed, but the overall win rate of Terran simply increased from the reduction of the weaker Terran players.

Thus, this is one explanation of relatively even win rates TvP.

An alternative explanation of these win rates is that Terrans are opting for more All-in or Semi all-in mid game timings. Most good Terran players recognize that our Win % peters out as the game goes on, and so we go for timings when we have the greatest chance to win.

On May 04 2012 09:26 Sakagami wrote:
Lol quite honestly the korean PvT winrate is completely skewed. The korean sample is like of 150 games which is nothing, and the entire winrate in general is probably skewed by STartale_Parting who has a 80% win rate in the match up.

Parting alone can eaisly skew the winrate 5-6%

On May 04 2012 09:37 NHL Fever wrote:
I would just like to point out that the record in the GSL Ro8 PvT was 6 - 0. Parting was not involved (he was playing PvP). Parting is not the reason PvT is strong.

On May 04 2012 07:32 SkimGuy wrote:

And the better player won. What's your point?

On May 04 2012 10:38 BenAD wrote:


There were 3 PvTs
So it was 7-3...

On May 04 2012 11:10 Alejandrisha wrote:
parting and squirtle rippin stuff UP
my biggest issue with korean zvp is the reaction to a 3rd base. they take a 4th and go for a bust, when you can max out on roaches more efficiently without a 4th hatch
also lol at the terran outcry; only .5% over 50% in international plus korea! what an outrage!

Parting alone can eaisly skew the winrate 5-6%

On May 04 2012 13:14 SarcasmMonster wrote:
Judging from other threads, I'd like to present the following hypothesis:

A more balanced game does not lead to less balance whine. In fact, the amount of balance whine has little correlation to the current balance.

On May 04 2012 17:58 Destructicon wrote:
Another reason to look forward to the KeSPA and OGN SC2 team and individual leagues. It will be harder for people to dismiss the korean stats, despite them being more relevant skill wise, when the sample size doubles or triples.

I can't trust international tournament results when they contain games from people playing way bellow the biggest skill level and especially when the results get skewed by playhem tournaments where low league nobodies are destroyed by top level players.

If you assume the korean and international sample sizes contain nearly equal skill level from players, then yes I'd trust the international stats more, but as it stands, the international stats are just as polluted and misleading as the small sample size from Korea.

On May 04 2012 09:26 Sakagami wrote:
Lol quite honestly the korean PvT winrate is completely skewed. The korean sample is like of 150 games which is nothing, and the entire winrate in general is probably skewed by STartale_Parting who has a 80% win rate in the match up.

Parting alone can eaisly skew the winrate 5-6%

On May 04 2012 19:16 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:


Note that this month, Terran is back on top with about 55% win ratio and slightly ahead in both non-mirror match-ups I don't think you'll ever have to worry about Terran- of all races- dropping down that low lol. It's always been much more stable than the other two.

But quite frankly, all 3 non-mirror match-ups have insanely close winrates. Happy for this

On May 04 2012 11:44 NHL Fever wrote:


True enough, I stand corrected. Of Korean PvT's, 6 - 0.

On May 04 2012 19:55 Ace1123 wrote:
Korean terrans being overtaken by zerg and toss? Can anyone Explain why? And why On international T takes the lead, Way back I've read that Foreign Zerg/Protoss are better than their Terran? Im lost hehe

On May 04 2012 19:49 aintthatfunny wrote:

In which the terrans played absolutely awful and completely deserved the result.

On May 05 2012 06:18 NHL Fever wrote:


By that you mean they played standard. Standard right now is awful, that's why this entire discussion/thread/topic exists.

On May 05 2012 18:13 CDR wrote:
Does Korean stats include only GSL? What about Koreans playing in foreign tournaments? Which chart are they in?
I guess that is pretty significant
Metagame changes and winrates change, Terran players seem to fail to adapt but soon someone will figure some new timings out and things will go back to normal (which is T being imba ).

On May 05 2012 21:13 Vapaach wrote:
Korean sample size is too small to get any actually reliable data from there.. the balance seems quite nice.

On May 06 2012 01:53 MtlGuitarist97 wrote:


You can say that the level of play at foreign level is too low and you can't get reliable data from there...the argument works both ways

And also, Terran's have just been getting smashed recently. Like..it's not even close most of the series. I don't honestly think that late game TvP is balanced, and a Blizzard employee (a moderator) even said that TvP late game is not supposed to be balanced because of the fact that our early game "is much stronger than their early game," which just simply is not true anymore. Look at many Protoss players. They do gateway all ins and timing pushes and are showing that Protoss is just as strong as Terran in the early/middle stages of the game. 15 nexus is basically impossible to punish on many maps.

Source: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/forum/topic/4838104108

I don't think win rates tell us enough about balance though, I think balance has to mean that the game is fair and fun at all stages. WIn rates don't tell us how those players won and about the skill differentials in each series.

On May 06 2012 02:11 tomatriedes wrote:
So amusing the way the terran whiners constantly try to dismiss the win rates as being meaningless because they don't like the fact that they look pretty balanced.

On May 06 2012 02:06 convention wrote:


The gateway all-ins work because the army values are significantly different. That does not mean that protoss have a strong early/mid game, just that if they have a massive army value advantage they might be able to win (I have seen gateway all-ins fail because a few bunkers despite having more than double the terran army value).

When the medivacs come out, it gives terran so much map control, they need to take advantage of that map control - which is what Blizzard is saying. If one race has an advatage earlier in the game but doesn't use that advantage, then they should be behind. And those maps where 15 nexus can't be punished, are the same maps that 15 cc can't be punished either.

On May 03 2012 21:39 ZenithM wrote:
It may be the first time in the history of the game that Korean Terran have less than 50% winrate overall.
How the mighty have fallen.

On June 07 2012 05:26 Aterons_toss wrote:
I think in int zvp you bolded the wrong rates, charts show zerg 50,3 and toss 49, 7

On June 07 2012 08:05 windsupernova wrote:
Every month this graphs come out and show the winrates are reasonably even.

Every month people whine their hearts out regardless.

Do the graphs "support" your whine? Awesome

Do the graphs don't "support" your whine? Make up something about them being meaningless.

Whiners gonna whine

On June 07 2012 11:57 CtrlShiftAltGrrrrrrr wrote:
Stats are a bit useless since they dont take into accounts player skill, maps, playing conditions and that kind of stuff, but theyre not 100 percent worthless. Gonna be funny to see the terran winrate in korea for june...

On June 07 2012 17:15 Satiinifi wrote:
Its out, 45.8% total for t kor, zvt 39% http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ And this is with 10days of old patch still, I can only imagine how disgusting the figures will be after a full month

On June 07 2012 17:15 Satiinifi wrote:
Its out, 45.8% total for t kor, zvt 39% http://imgur.com/a/5uKDQ And this is with 10days of old patch still, I can only imagine how disgusting the figures will be after a full month