EPT
[D] Glider v Jenny Data Thread (CONGRATS!) - Page 3
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-HellZerg-
United States409 Posts
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Korben
United States139 Posts
for those of you that have not.. here is the link http://www.youtube.com/ontherise note the featured video (JenniferESL).. and that all the other competitors videos were, at best buried under navigation. The "featured playlist' isn't even this months playlist (which DOES exist.) | ||
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rewired
Canada630 Posts
I think one of the real heroes here was Seeker tho, I don't think he logged off all weekend. | ||
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Glider
United States1348 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:21 dormer wrote: Okay.. Maybe I'm just awful with math, but where in those graphs is the evidence that something fishy was going on? All I see is a bunch of fluctuating lines. Just to edit in, checking their youtube channels: JenniferESL Channel Views: 3,372,397 Total Upload Views: 24,443,381 Subscribers: 70,068 ThePortraitArt Channel Views: 1,061,695 Total Upload Views: 10,338,029 Subscribers: 66,142 Similar number of subscribers, but many more channel views and total upload views for Jennifer. Granted she apparently doesn't have a community backing her like TL / Reddit for Glider, but some of the people saying that there's no way she could get that many votes just seem to not understand the fact that there's like a billion people in the world learning English and that her channel might have broader appeal than Glider's art. to see a clearer picture, use vidstatsx.com http://vidstatsx.com/v/theportraitart http://vidstatsx.com/v/jenniferESL lastly look at this graph: http://i.imgur.com/zRNUe.png (read up on how certain things are programmed, and you can see her channel mimics my votes EXACTLY + w/e real votes she got on her own) ---------- Look at channel view gained/subscriber growth since 12/5 (the day voting began) ---------- | ||
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
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Iamilo
South Africa4 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:21 dormer wrote: Okay.. Maybe I'm just awful with math, but where in those graphs is the evidence that something fishy was going on? All I see is a bunch of fluctuating lines. Just to edit in, checking their youtube channels: JenniferESL Channel Views: 3,372,397 Total Upload Views: 24,443,381 Subscribers: 70,068 ThePortraitArt Channel Views: 1,061,695 Total Upload Views: 10,338,029 Subscribers: 66,142 Similar number of subscribers, but many more channel views and total upload views for Jennifer. Granted she apparently doesn't have a community backing her like TL / Reddit for Glider, but some of the people saying that there's no way she could get that many votes just seem to not understand the fact that there's like a billion people in the world learning English and that her channel might have broader appeal than Glider's art. Of course, I think Glider is way more awesome, voted for him, and am very happy he won :-p I just get tired of reading all this conspiracy theory type bullshit when there doesn't seem to be any real evidence. Again, if there's something in the graphs, please explain it to me, because I don't really see it. The points where her incoming votes drop to 0 for brief periods seems a little weird, but that's about it. Thank you! I also hate conspiracy theorists and don't get me wrong the way that the SC2 community has rallied behind ThePortraitArt is very supportive but as a scholar of linguistics I cannot help but side with JenniferESL because in my mind learning an international language is much more important than the spread of a sport (electronic or otherwise). Reddit hates me for that  | ||
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Iamilo
South Africa4 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:54 rewired wrote: I voted like 150 times I think one of the real heroes here was Seeker tho, I don't think he logged off all weekend. Cheating to win a competition? Classy. I don't understand why people were so set on this guy winning. Sure the art is amazing but it's only mildly associated to the starcraft community is it not? Then again I may not know what I'm talking about. Anyway it just seems oddly childish that our community wants to win everything even if there are more deserving candidates out there. | ||
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Alpino
Brazil4390 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:35 Iamilo wrote: Cheating to win a competition? Classy. I don't understand why people were so set on this guy winning. Sure the art is amazing but it's only mildly associated to the starcraft community is it not? Then again I may not know what I'm talking about. Anyway it just seems oddly childish that our community wants to win everything even if there are more deserving candidates out there. And who are you to judge that (truly amazing)art is not as deserving as learning english? Just let people be. Those graphs..they are too much of a coincidence. Something was wrong in this competition. | ||
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turdburgler
England6749 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:56 Glider wrote: to see a clearer picture, use vidstatsx.com http://vidstatsx.com/v/theportraitart http://vidstatsx.com/v/jenniferESL ---------- Look at channel view gained/subscriber growth since 12/5 (the day voting began) ---------- are you trying to say that.... being part of "ontherise" helped her? shocking | ||
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Iamilo
South Africa4 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:44 Alpino wrote: And who are you to judge that (truly amazing)art is not as deserving as learning english? Just let people be. Those graphs..they are too much of a coincidence. Something was wrong in this competition. I have a degree in linguistics and I live in a third world country with 11 official languages where basic services are a problem for more than 5 million people. As much as I love SC2 learning English is slightly more important here than esports. | ||
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Jutranjo
Slovenia140 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:50 Iamilo wrote: I have a degree in linguistics and I live in a third world country with 11 official languages where basic services are a problem for more than 5 million people. As much as I love SC2 learning English is slightly more important here than esports. So people would start learning english by randomly finding a youtube channel about it? Youtube is in english or is it localized to all 11 official languages? I doubt people who find english tutorials randomly will stick with them or gain any long term benefit. Were you also against the rumble in the bronze charity target? Because african children could have used those $10k more? | ||
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Zlasher
United States9129 Posts
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turdburgler
England6749 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:54 Jutranjo wrote: So people would start learning english by randomly finding a youtube channel about it? Youtube is in english or is it localized to all 11 official languages? I doubt people who find english tutorials randomly will stick with them or gain any long term benefit. Were you also against the rumble in the bronze charity target? Because african children could have used those $10k more? they might not sub before because they dont have time to learn proper english, but apon seeing shes up for ontherise might decide shes most deserving, we dont know this whole thread seems to be based around the fact that "she was never growing slower than glider". but its only about 4pm onwards, go back 2 days and glider was behind, so she must of grown slower. | ||
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Grettin
42381 Posts
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Iamilo
South Africa4 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:54 Jutranjo wrote: So people would start learning english by randomly finding a youtube channel about it? Youtube is in english or is it localized to all 11 official languages? I doubt people who find english tutorials randomly will stick with them or gain any long term benefit. Were you also against the rumble in the bronze charity target? Because african children could have used those $10k more? People desperate to learn English would do so in any way possible, especially if it's free. I know Youtube is localised to at least the 2 main langauges. That wasn't my point though, I was merely responding to Alpino's comment. If you look at JenniferESL's profile page you'll see, amidst the sea of awful comments from the gaming community, a dedicated group of individuals from around the world who are learning English through her tutelage. No, of course I was not against Rumble in the Bronze. | ||
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karpo
Sweden1998 Posts
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JustPassingBy
10776 Posts
Yes, learning english might be more important overall, but you should not need youtube to do that, or, let's put it like that, if you do search youtube for something like that, you should be able to find it naturally. Anyways, the majority got what they wanted. :-) | ||
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chaynesore
Australia175 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:31 JustPassingBy wrote: Did you gather that data yourself? If no, is there any chance to get the data for the past days? (considering you said it was looking grim at first and those graphs show nothing of the sort) I did gather this data manually so no there is no way to backtrack the data unless Youtube/Google makes it available. I found the motivation to start tracking these numbers at around the same time TB made his video and created the surge. The timings will all match up in the original thread if you must check, but that is why there is sadly no recorded evidence of this. On December 13 2011 15:56 zatic wrote: Can you please explain what each of these graphs is supposed to mean instead of just dumping them in a thread? I collected data and generated graphs. I don't believe it's necessarily my role to skew the OP with the way in which I view the data, which is why I left this out. Additionally, I had no idea what I was collecting until I had collected it, and as I stated, it was more of a backup plan in case something went wrong, such that we might be able to view the trends in voting in the hours leading to the close. Having collected the data, although Glider had won, I decided to share it with the community anyway as many people appreciated the graphs generated throughout the live thread and there is a general consensus that something is awry in the system and some people have expressed interest in analysing this further. Nevertheless, since you're asking... I find it curious that the growth between both poll options was consistently proportional with one another for a very long time. This struck myself and many others as something other than organic growth, and that perhaps one was a function of the other (i.e. bot). Additionally, the largely erratic spikes in the smaller samplerate graph I generated would perhaps indicate a crude self-correcting whatever? I dunno, I'm an engineer. I'll leave this to the dedicated math/stat types who were talking about regression analysis and all that. On December 13 2011 18:09 karpo wrote: Shouldn't the op at least add what this is about or link to the original thread. As i missed this "event" the OP is like an enigma of graphs. Sorry man, been afk/sleeping for a bit. I'm on a god damn mac at the moment and it's driving me insane so I'll touch the OP up a little bit later with some FAQ / basic arguments/analysis/opinions and stuff if people want later. Maybe add some polls. I dunno. I'm not too worried about this data now. Like I said it was more of a precaution and was going to be something good to fall back onto after the fact if things turned out unfavourably - just sharing for those interested regardless. | ||
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EatThePath
United States3943 Posts
On December 13 2011 17:54 Jutranjo wrote: So people would start learning english by randomly finding a youtube channel about it? Youtube is in english or is it localized to all 11 official languages? I doubt people who find english tutorials randomly will stick with them or gain any long term benefit. Were you also against the rumble in the bronze charity target? Because african children could have used those $10k more? Why so uptight jutranjo? His point, and I think it's clearly a reasonable one, is that it might be better for something that can change people's lives gets more exposure, as opposed to just another thing like many others on youtube that people can look out and go "oh, cool". Not that I didn't vote for glider. Congrats! edit: I don't understand how anyone can care about the innards of a popularity contest on the internet, but whatever. The most plausible explanation to me, if you must assume there was some kind of illicit activity, is that the numbers were being boosted for both in such a way that eventually they both received the same number of votes, but granted at varying rates. Thus, the legitimacy of the voting is preserved, but by adding in a dramatic baseline orders of magnitude more than the true voting rate, it creates the appearance of a hot race. Was I reading those graphs correctly in that it said, at times, the contestants were each receiving upwards of 700 votes in 5 minutes? That would blow through the TL viewership of glider threads in less than an hour. Could it really be true that random people check out this youtube contest and then make a vote, to supply such a high voting rate? | ||
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dormer
United States1314 Posts
On December 13 2011 15:56 Glider wrote: to see a clearer picture, use vidstatsx.com http://vidstatsx.com/v/theportraitart http://vidstatsx.com/v/jenniferESL ---------- Look at channel view gained/subscriber growth since 12/5 (the day voting began) ---------- Again, what's the incriminating part? She's gaining views and subscribers, but not a ton more compared to her previous growth. On December 13 2011 17:57 Zlasher wrote: I think one thing that could help for people who don't understand graphs or numbers is just writing "This graph looks normal" or "This looks weird" [in my eyes the first growth graph is insane, that she NEVER was growing at a slower rate than Glider, actually didn't make sense] What doesn't make sense, though? First of all, she does drop below Glider's growth at one point, so if you're trying to say that there was some kind of bot automatically keeping her ahead of Glider, that doesn't seem to be the case. Also, the fact that she's growing more just means she's getting more votes, possibly due to... More people voting for her? What about if you compared Glider's growth to the other two channels? I bet he'd never drop below them, either. Because he was cheating? No, because he had more views, more votes, and more support (and because he's way more awesome, of course). | ||
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