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Statistics behind map balance - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
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Sea_Food
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Finland1612 Posts
November 24 2011 20:30 GMT
#21
Shakuras was made 10x less zerg unfavored in patch 2.0 but the statistics lie as when 1.1 was played, all the other maps were even more zerg unfavored.
Lumi
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
United States1616 Posts
November 24 2011 20:30 GMT
#22
I appreciate the effort here but this sample size is pretty useless \= And if it's from TLPD who knows what patch variations are included within this data.
twitter.com/lumigaming - DongRaeGu is the One True Dong - /r/onetruedong
Markwerf
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands3728 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-24 20:43:02
November 24 2011 20:41 GMT
#23
if you provide a confidence interval please provide what confidence level you're using. Makes it easier to read not having to calculate back what confidence level it was. (i assume it's 95%)

Also it would be nice to note at what time certain map changes went into efffect. I can imagine that most map changes were accustomed by a patch as well so shifting match ratio's could partly be the result of patches as well.


Randomaccount#77123
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States5003 Posts
November 24 2011 20:54 GMT
#24
--- Nuked ---
Mista_Masta
Profile Joined January 2009
Netherlands557 Posts
November 24 2011 20:59 GMT
#25
Very interesting statistical analysis. I do agree that for many maps there's not enough data to yield any meaningful conclusions. Also, like others have said, part of the changes in the match ups may be caused by patches. Still, good job! =)
Primadog
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4411 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-24 21:34:29
November 24 2011 21:18 GMT
#26
Unbelievable that we ever used a map that was 70%-favored in a competitive environment, I look forward to the future when map theory become respected as a serious discipline. This was a great first step!
Thank God and gunrun.
Dodgin
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Canada39254 Posts
November 24 2011 21:21 GMT
#27
On November 25 2011 05:02 Psychobabas wrote:
I am sorry but the sample is way too small for some maps, as you state.

Also, the most recent statistics include all the games from before, therefore is not as accurate since multiple game changing nerfs and buffs have occured over time.

What I think would be a better study, and with more meaning, would be to look at the balances on each patch. I dont mean to be annoying but I think there is little point to this, since those factors (patch changes) are far more important in my eyes than maps, which are certainly not as decisive (at least not as much as Brood War).


you're actually just completely wrong, sorry. maps are a big deal.
RoboBob
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States798 Posts
November 24 2011 21:24 GMT
#28
It was really interesting seeing the numbers on Shakuras, it definitely wasn't what I expected.

The Shattered Temple results weren't that surprising. I think one thing you didn't consider about the original Lost Temple was the influence of BitByBit. (and to a lesser extent, Rax before Depot) He taught us how to auto-kill Zergs on close-by-ground spawns. By the time Shattered Temple came out, all the changes to the cliff, island, and center didn't matter. They certainly made mid-lategame TvZ better for the Zerg, but because all the Terrans learned they could kill the Zerg in the early game, it just didn't matter.

I'm not sure why the current version of Shattered Temple TvZ is still Terran favored. I'm not a big believer of Gold expansions automatically making maps imbalanced for Terran, but maybe there is a case for that here.

I also thought it was a bit silly to look at Bel'Shiar and Antiga when they haven't had enough play yet. Maybe that was the point you were trying to make, but I feel kinda bad that you went to all that effort for nothing =/
Kira__
Profile Joined April 2011
Sweden2672 Posts
November 24 2011 21:25 GMT
#29
I think numbers are overrated. Better to look at games and how they play out.
The truth is, Yagami-kun, I suspect that you may in fact be Kira.
Mirosuu
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
England283 Posts
November 24 2011 21:36 GMT
#30
I think one factor in all of this is that some of the maps were played in an era where zergs didn't know how to even spread creep and macro correctly. I think that is also a big factor of why some maps were deemed "imba". I think in a few years, if we played on these maps, they would then skew towards one race or another due to everyone being near the height of the skill in the game and these imba reasons come out of that. Emergent phenomena, at a player skill level, you could say.

We'll see. Hopefully they are still balanced in a few years, but I severely doubt that even tal'darim would be balanced across all three races in a few years once everyone has fleshed out a lot of their races and the matchups.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Madera
Profile Joined July 2011
Sweden2672 Posts
November 24 2011 21:38 GMT
#31
Wow, thanks for the statistics!
Micket
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom2163 Posts
November 24 2011 21:39 GMT
#32
I don't think taking map statistics is always the best thing. Sc2 isn't BW, where everyone is sooo good that a small map imbalance will lead to a particular race ALWAYS winning. Currently in sc2, we should look at maps and say 'does the better player WIN?' On a map like Taldarim, answer is yes. Xelnaga Caverns? No. Metalopolis? I would say yes. That is all that matters imo. Shakuras looks pretty balanced but in actuality, Zerg has a really tough time there. The reason why the map looks balanced is because we don't have that situation like in BW where everyone is good. Stephano is still gonna trounce some lesser pro on that map. But once players get better, the map will have to leave soon. It is great ATM because the better player wins, but it won't last forever.
Hassybaby
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United Kingdom10823 Posts
November 24 2011 21:52 GMT
#33
This is actually going to take me a while, because there are a fair few points of contention about what i am trying to portray here.

On November 25 2011 05:05 Andreas wrote:
Are you sure that's the original Tal'darim with the gold bases? I was sure that was NASL's version.


It's an old version that the NASL accidentally used. They fixed it pretty quickly, and subsequent matches were played on the right version

@ those talking about sample size. That's exactly my point. A number of map changes have been made with little data backing them up, but mostly general opinions. Antiga Shipyard hasn't even been out for 6 months, but there are 3 main versions of it. Bel'Shir Beach has only seen play in the competitive scene, and yet there are numerous changes to it. 40 non-mirror match-ups were played before they released version 1.1! How can there be any seriously justification of this many variations when other factors have not been given a chance to have an affect on the win rates?

@ those mentioning Blizzard data: Blizzard balances maps at the higher levels. Their concern across the board comes more from units then maps, and even there they favour the higher ranks. It was the professional scene that pushed for changes to Lost Temple to remove that high ground. It was the pros that noted now truly brutal Terran pushes could be through Shakuras using the back rocks. While I agree that using the bigger sample would be useful, at the same time we would have to reject the same data because it's not relevant to what the motives were.

On November 25 2011 05:18 shaldengeki wrote:
Yeah, patch changes over time undoubtedly influence win rates on maps. That's a really good point, and I feel like it strengthens the OP's point wrt sample sizes - you've got all these variables that are changing over time, so it's even more important that maps be held static for awhile to accurately measure map balance - see what works and what doesn't. Otherwise we're just flailing about in the dark.


Pretty much what i was going for. The only map that we can safely say has been given a fair chance in terms of severity of changes is Tal'Darim Altar, and that was a tournament map to begin with.

On November 25 2011 05:26 Psychobabas wrote:
This opens another can of worms actually. Then we would wonder: Is Blizzard balancing maps for the masses or just the higher players? I personally think it's for the masses. So I think a study like this has great potential, as a statistic that includes bronze play (no offence to the bronze people out there!) is meaningless to me.


Can't comment, despite how hard i wanted to. If we take the number on face value, some cases they are trying to balance it at the high levels, and failed. Other cases, they are trying and they succeeded in one area, and caused more problems in another. We can't say, because the balances outside maps are constantly changing. That's why I want stability, as opposed to constant changes.

@ those thinking that I should have compared stats by patch and overall win-rates as well: Firstly...I'm actually going to do that later, for each individual map
Secondly, the fact that we would be dividing up the small sample even more, as there have been many patches, would cause statistical errors to be even greater than they are right now, and then there would be even more reason to disregard the data. Not enough time was given....

On November 25 2011 06:24 RoboBob wrote:

I also thought it was a bit silly to look at Bel'Shiar and Antiga when they haven't had enough play yet. Maybe that was the point you were trying to make, but I feel kinda bad that you went to all that effort for nothing =/


It was, and i don't think it's a waste of time for me. Anyone who regularity goes into the GSL LR knows that I love writing out stats, and I enjoyed doing it

On November 25 2011 05:05 shaldengeki wrote:
A slight nitpick though: IIRC if your confidence intervals overlap at all, you have to say that you can't reasonably tell whether these numbers are actually different or not. There were a few instances in which you seemed to acknowledge the overlaps but then continued to say that the winrates were actually distinguishable and attributable to changes.


If you could point out where they are, I'd love to change it around to make the necessary changes.

Hope that cleared up some misconceptions
"These guys are mindfucking me into a sex coma" | "Mayonnaise is a must-have lubricant when performing necrophilia"
Zaphid
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Czech Republic1860 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-24 22:08:09
November 24 2011 21:54 GMT
#34
I was doing similar research about a month back, including every single custom maps introduced by GOM and basically came to the conclusion that any cookie cutter macro map will lead to the same results given enough games. Exactly like TDA. For example Xel naga Fortress has pretty decent PvT stats - around 57% TvP, yet anyone who saw more than a few games on it will tell you it's a shitty map for that MU. It's 90% 1/1/1, VR allins or someone metagaming. Similar goes for Crossfire. Those maps could be fine on ladder though, because only high masters/GM can execute those builds well enough, so most of the audience wouldn't notice it.

You also completely disregard practice games, which are essentially untrackable, but you can bet your ass that especially for the GSL, they outnumber the tournament ones. When a pro tells you a map x sucks, it's usually because they figured out a way to exploit and they are having a hard time working around it.

Anyway, I think the time of big balance patches has passed, so now it should be perfect time to ditch most of the old ladder pool and introduce some great macro based maps so we can get the most out of the game.

Also Antiga has so many versions because of positional imbalances on the ladder version and you can hit main's gas from the third, at least originally you could. Playing a map with those "features" in tournaments would be a joke.
I will never ever play Mech against Protoss. - MVP
arioch
Profile Joined May 2010
England403 Posts
November 24 2011 21:55 GMT
#35
Brilliant and interesting post thanks... gonna read in more detail later but saying thanks for your effort.
Nymbul
Profile Joined July 2011
United Kingdom127 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-24 21:57:06
November 24 2011 21:55 GMT
#36
After looking at the original i'm only now remembering how bad Shakuras used to be. I knew there was backdoor rocks which is an evil that must be purged but I completely forgot about the middle rocks

The GSL has removed gold expansions but i'm wondering if there's going to be map changes to make them safer due to the lessening of Reward > Risk
ogion
Profile Joined November 2011
New Zealand79 Posts
November 24 2011 21:59 GMT
#37
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the reason they released the original Shakuras Plateau is that there was a glitch were you could build a pylon in the opponents base next to the rocks and it would be invisible. They removed the map for a while, then brought it back as 1.1, where the glitch was gone.
Antoine
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States7481 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-11-24 22:07:54
November 24 2011 22:05 GMT
#38
1.1 for antiga is no horizontal spawns. (same for shakuras)
also bottom of main ramp changed to prevent 2-bunker block iirc
ModeratorFlash Sea Action Snow Midas | TheStC Ret Tyler MC | RIP 우정호
Markwerf
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands3728 Posts
November 24 2011 22:06 GMT
#39
On November 25 2011 06:55 Nymbul wrote:
After looking at the original i'm only now remembering how bad Shakuras used to be. I knew there was backdoor rocks which is an evil that must be purged but I completely forgot about the middle rocks

The GSL has removed gold expansions but i'm wondering if there's going to be map changes to make them safer due to the lessening of Reward > Risk


I think gold was a slight mistake in sc2. The idea is nice of a high risk high reward expansion where the option of where to expand starts to matter more but it's very hard to balance racewise. Zerg have the least dependance for their bases being close together because of fast units and them not relying on static defense so much so they can probably use golds the best, terran can use all mules on gold and take golds quite fast by means of a planetary as well. Protoss on the other hand cna hardly use gold well at all, if anything they tend to have oversaturation already most of the time so they are not that interested in a base with less patches.
Those principle differences between the races make gold very hard to balance I think.
SpiZe
Profile Joined December 2010
Canada3640 Posts
November 24 2011 22:10 GMT
#40
On November 25 2011 07:05 Antoine wrote:
1.1 for antiga is no horizontal spawns. (same for shakuras)
also bottom of main ramp changed to prevent 2-bunker block iirc


Shakuras 1.1 also included the fix to the invisible buildings, or was it 2.0 ?
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