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United States12269 Posts
Got promoted to Diamond today. Here's the full match history:
Game History (1v1)
1: kard (Placement, win)
2: HollowShade (Gold 7-4 29, win)
3: Haste (Diamond 132-71 371, win)
4: xet (Platinum 12-10 232, win)
5: Hawk (Gold 8-3 160, win)
** Placement: Platinum Moratun Dixie ** Bonus Pool: 251
6: ice (Diamond 77-59 499, loss, +0)
7: ACERGAME (Diamond 116-95 407, win, +40 [-20 bonus, 231])
8: DuNgiE (Diamond 46-38 409, win, +42 [-21 bonus, 210])
9: Protoss (Diamond 95-69 654, loss, -1)
10: sixghost (Diamond 56-43 483, win, +42 [-21 bonus, 189])
11: Zantetsuken (Diamond 32-16 466, loss, -2)
12: Moni (Platinum 14-4 341, loss, -3)
** Bonus Pool: 263 (8/14/2010 12pm)
13: Jayyjer (Diamond 59-49 478, win, +42 [-21 bonus, 242])
** Bonus Pool: 255 (8/15/2010 12pm)
14: Shocktrooper (Diamond 47-37 506, win, +42 [-21 bonus, 234])
15: Sixto (Diamond 262-231 744, loss, -2)
** Bonus Pool: 239 (8/15/2010 9:19pm)
16: Darklance (Diamond 57-41 567, loss, -4)
17: Ryo (Platinum 8-2 166, loss, -5)
18: ShatteredE (Diamond 135-118 483, win, +38 [-19 bonus, 220])
** Bonus Pool: 232 (8/16/2010 9:19pm)
19: drubs (Diamond 53-38 523, win, +38 [-19 bonus, 214])
** Bonus Pool: 240 (8/17/2010 11:24pm)
20: Diogenes (Diamond 20-12 385, loss, -4)
21: Sair (Diamond 23-13 452, loss, -4)
22: SpicyCurry (Platinum 10-5 195, win, +38 [-19 bonus, 221])
23: OptimA (Platinum 8-1 124, win, +40 [-20 bonus, 202])
** Bonus Pool: 224 (8/20/2010 5:32pm)
24: Mugatoo (Platinum 11-6 252, win, +40 [-20 bonus, 204])
***** PROMOTION: 1v1 Diamond Araq Echo
** Bonus Pool post-promotion: 184
** Points pre-promotion: 337 (14-9)
** Points post-promotion: 274 (15-9)
You can sort of get an idea as to what is happening. After placement I was getting paired against Diamond players immediately. I played against some Platinum players, but they were all Platinum players who had very few games played and a high win ratio, which suggests their MMR was well within Diamond range.
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Excalibur_Z:
Have you tried graphing different aspects of player records against promotions, as opposed to total # games played?
There is a lot of evidence out there suggesting that the first checkpoint is at n=~8 losses, not some number games played.
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United States12269 Posts
On August 21 2010 10:08 taffy wrote:
Excalibur_Z:
Have you tried graphing different aspects of player records against promotions, as opposed to total # games played?
There is a lot of evidence out there suggesting that the first checkpoint is at n=~8 losses, not some number games played.
We checked number of losses with the intention of disproving a "required" number of losses before promotion:
Players and their Number of Losses before Promotion:
0 - 5
1 - 30
2 - 149
3 - 291
4 - 537
5 - 596
6 - 646
7 - 660
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lol This system is harsh, I'm ranked 1st in 2v2 Plat and Diamond in 3v3, it cut 200~ points after the Diamond promotion. In 1v1 I got Plat after the first 5 qualifying games, and the matchmaking system only seems to put me up against Diamond players, many whom are ranked in the top 5 in their divisions with 150-300 games...
It's so confusing how it works, I just don't consider that a Plat player with 5 games should be immediately be playing top Diamond players with 300 games, but I did win half of them so I guess in some bizarre sense, the matchmaking system actually equalizes players with same skill.
I guess understanding the sigma system, I have overall exactly 60 wins, 20 losses which yields a high sigma that in turn, the system is putting me against players of equal sigma?
Also there is one thing I wonder about...if you lose allot after gaining a promotion can you get demoted because your performance is declining?
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United States12269 Posts
On August 21 2010 10:40 ChaseR wrote:
lol This system is harsh, I'm ranked 1st in 2v2 Plat and Diamond in 3v3, it cut 200~ points after the Diamond promotion. In 1v1 I got Plat after the first 5 qualifying games, and the matchmaking system only seems to put me up against Diamond players, many whom are ranked in the top 5 in their divisions with 150-300 games...
It's so confusing how it works, I just don't consider that a Plat player with 5 games should be immediately be playing top Diamond players with 300 games, but I did win half of them so I guess in some bizarre sense, the matchmaking system actually equalizes players with same skill.
I guess understanding the sigma system, I have overall exactly 60 wins, 20 losses which yields a high sigma that in turn, the system is putting me against players of equal sigma?
Also there is one thing I wonder about...if you lose allot after gaining a promotion can you get demoted because your performance is declining?
You can't automatically assume that sigma is a result of win/loss ratio. Did you go 0-20 then 60-0? Then you probably have an extremely high sigma. Did you go 15-4 then 15-4 then 15-4 then 15-4? You probably have a high sigma. Did you go 40-0 then 20-20? You probably have a very small sigma. The system recognizes recent trends, not overall ones.
And yes, you can get demoted for declining performance after a promotion. You're never "locked" into one league.
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If Chaser's MMR has a high range, it would actually make sense to match him against a high diamond player with 300+ games.
A high diamond player with 300+ games would represent a good benchmark for opponent. While the high diamond player's MMR mu and MMR sigma doesn't move much with either result. Chaser's sigma will significantly decline because he's matched against a player that the system recognized as more certain.
Is my understanding correct or did I misunderstand anything. Please give me some hint. 
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United States12269 Posts
I think that in most cases, you've got it right. It's pretty likely that a 300-game player is going to be considered stable and would therefore have a small sigma, but there's no way to be certain, because if that player happened to have a wild streak going on then his sigma would be larger. I think your understanding is correct, though.
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This system is really confusing if you massgame a bunch (i.e. narrow your sigma), then suddenly "reach a new level" of play.
After ~25 games, I was put into diamond with ~375 rating. The next 55 games or so I only managed to get another 50-60 points, putting me at around 425. I'm guessing at this point, the system is fairly sure of where it has put me in the ladder, and my sigma is pretty small.
However after that I stopped massgaming and started playing against practice partners. I experienced a pretty significant jump in skill. Now I'm regularly playing people that are 600-800 rating, and I'm only getting 10-14 points per match (the system regularly tells me that I am "even" with these people). Then I'll play someone who is 500-600, and they'll void ray rush me or something, and I'll lose those points. It's incredibly frustrating. I wonder how long it will take before I can start climbing the ladder again?
I just played an 852-rating player, and I'm at 44X. The system said we were even, and I only got 14 points for the win (+ bonus pool). That seems pretty messed up.
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I don't really understand why there needs to be a seperation between MMR and "points" in addition to all this.
All I'm really gathering from this is your listed points is not a good indicator of how skilled you are. Obviously a 1000 point diamond player is likely better than a 300 point diamond player, but a 900 point diamond player may well have a higher MMR and be more expected to win vs. the 1000 point player.
I can understand breaking things into 100 person divisions, as a way to give casual players a smaller box to operate in and not make them concerned over a big picture. But I can't understand why the listed points is seperate and the MMR is not shown. Is it really just so bonus pool can sift out inactive players?
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Im 770~ diamond and just got matched against a 280 points platinum who had only played like 25 games wtf?
Is it possible that 2v2 rankings affects this?
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Sanya12364 Posts
Hmm so match making rating is not published.
I don't know if this has been said before but if you have a provisional player without enough games to establish a stable MMR, a win or loss for the opponent should affect the opponent's ranking at all since all that would do is propagate newcomer MMR volatility.
It's good to understand that points isn't equivalent to MMR and MMR is the better indication of skill on the ladder. Good work, Excallibur.
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On August 23 2010 04:28 BlasiuS wrote:
This system is really confusing if you massgame a bunch (i.e. narrow your sigma), then suddenly "reach a new level" of play.
After ~25 games, I was put into diamond with ~375 rating. The next 55 games or so I only managed to get another 50-60 points, putting me at around 425. I'm guessing at this point, the system is fairly sure of where it has put me in the ladder, and my sigma is pretty small.
However after that I stopped massgaming and started playing against practice partners. I experienced a pretty significant jump in skill. Now I'm regularly playing people that are 600-800 rating, and I'm only getting 10-14 points per match (the system regularly tells me that I am "even" with these people). Then I'll play someone who is 500-600, and they'll void ray rush me or something, and I'll lose those points. It's incredibly frustrating. I wonder how long it will take before I can start climbing the ladder again?
I just played an 852-rating player, and I'm at 44X. The system said we were even, and I only got 14 points for the win (+ bonus pool). That seems pretty messed up.
yeah it's exactly like that for me. imo the system should throw bonus points at you until you're at the level that you're supposed to be at.
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United States12269 Posts
On August 23 2010 05:25 skindzer wrote:
Im 770~ diamond and just got matched against a 280 points platinum who had only played like 25 games wtf?
Is it possible that 2v2 rankings affects this?
Not after your initial placement game. If you got paired against a 280 Platinum player then there's a good chance he's got a record like 20-5. If you take a look at my match history I was paired against a couple 700ish Diamond players within my first ten or so games.
EDIT: Specifically:
9: Protoss (Diamond 95-69 654, loss, -1) <-- Record at the time was 7-1, coming off a 2-0 streak versus ~400 Diamond players
15: Sixto (Diamond 262-231 744, loss, -2) <-- Record at the time was 10-4, coming off a 2-0 streak versus ~500 Diamond players
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United States12269 Posts
On August 23 2010 05:47 heishe wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2010 04:28 BlasiuS wrote:
This system is really confusing if you massgame a bunch (i.e. narrow your sigma), then suddenly "reach a new level" of play.
After ~25 games, I was put into diamond with ~375 rating. The next 55 games or so I only managed to get another 50-60 points, putting me at around 425. I'm guessing at this point, the system is fairly sure of where it has put me in the ladder, and my sigma is pretty small.
However after that I stopped massgaming and started playing against practice partners. I experienced a pretty significant jump in skill. Now I'm regularly playing people that are 600-800 rating, and I'm only getting 10-14 points per match (the system regularly tells me that I am "even" with these people). Then I'll play someone who is 500-600, and they'll void ray rush me or something, and I'll lose those points. It's incredibly frustrating. I wonder how long it will take before I can start climbing the ladder again?
I just played an 852-rating player, and I'm at 44X. The system said we were even, and I only got 14 points for the win (+ bonus pool). That seems pretty messed up. yeah it's exactly like that for me. imo the system should throw bonus points at you until you're at the level that you're supposed to be at.
Well, that's sort of how it works now. On the loading screen, whenever you see "Favored", that match will be worth more points if you win and worth less points if you lose. Favored status is determined by your opponent's MMR compared to your current points, and when the deficit is large, you're basically getting free points.
If I have 1500 MMR and 300 rating and you have 1500 MMR and 1000 rating, you'll appear as Favored to me and I'll appear as Favored to you. The end result is that one of us rapidly moves toward his MMR whereas the other will lose minimal points. It's going to be like that for a while until your MMR and displayed rating converge, which is when you'll start seeing yourself as Favored and Teams Even more and more frequently. They're not "bonus points" in the sense that they're deducted from your bonus pool, but functionally they're very similar.
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+ Show Spoiler +On August 23 2010 08:07 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2010 05:47 heishe wrote:On August 23 2010 04:28 BlasiuS wrote:
This system is really confusing if you massgame a bunch (i.e. narrow your sigma), then suddenly "reach a new level" of play.
After ~25 games, I was put into diamond with ~375 rating. The next 55 games or so I only managed to get another 50-60 points, putting me at around 425. I'm guessing at this point, the system is fairly sure of where it has put me in the ladder, and my sigma is pretty small.
However after that I stopped massgaming and started playing against practice partners. I experienced a pretty significant jump in skill. Now I'm regularly playing people that are 600-800 rating, and I'm only getting 10-14 points per match (the system regularly tells me that I am "even" with these people). Then I'll play someone who is 500-600, and they'll void ray rush me or something, and I'll lose those points. It's incredibly frustrating. I wonder how long it will take before I can start climbing the ladder again?
I just played an 852-rating player, and I'm at 44X. The system said we were even, and I only got 14 points for the win (+ bonus pool). That seems pretty messed up. yeah it's exactly like that for me. imo the system should throw bonus points at you until you're at the level that you're supposed to be at. Well, that's sort of how it works now. On the loading screen, whenever you see "Favored", that match will be worth more points if you win and worth less points if you lose. Favored status is determined by your opponent's MMR compared to your current points, and when the deficit is large, you're basically getting free points. If I have 1500 MMR and 300 rating and you have 1500 MMR and 1000 rating, you'll appear as Favored to me and I'll appear as Favored to you. The end result is that one of us rapidly moves toward his MMR whereas the other will lose minimal points. It's going to be like that for a while until your MMR and displayed rating converge, which is when you'll start seeing yourself as Favored and Teams Even more and more frequently. They're not "bonus points" in the sense that they're deducted from your bonus pool, but functionally they're very similar.
That is F***ing COOL!!
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Won't the Top players MMR just keep growing and growing unless their is a cap(take a look at the old and new wow PVP ranking system). Then won't we start to get large gaps/pockets of players. Then won't those players Queue start to get longer and longer for a quick match and won't they start playing the same 20-30 people over and over again?
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United States12269 Posts
On August 24 2010 11:05 Calidus wrote:
Won't the Top players MMR just keep growing and growing unless their is a cap(take a look at the old and new wow PVP ranking system). Then won't we start to get large gaps/pockets of players. Then won't those players Queue start to get longer and longer for a quick match and won't they start playing the same 20-30 people over and over again?
In WoW, there was a hard cap (it was 3000). I'd suppose that SC2 works in a similar way. The queue for top players in WoW wasn't bad because the search area was pretty generous. In long queues it was common for teams to get matched up despite their MMRs being like 500+ apart.
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The hard cap was removed at around patch 2.4.
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Sorry to revive a several day old thread, but to note, I think a large bit of evidence will be whether the inflation slows down or not in the coming months.
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United States12269 Posts
On August 28 2010 16:41 ktimekiller wrote:
Sorry to revive a several day old thread, but to note, I think a large bit of evidence will be whether the inflation slows down or not in the coming months.
The inflation is going to be at a set rate. That is, 12 or so (or however quickly the bonus pool accumulates) points per day in inflation probably until the day the ladder is reset at the end of the season.
Don't feel bad about bumping this thread, either. There has been constant activity in this thread every few days since it was posted at first.
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EPT
