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On July 31 2015 04:45 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:44 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:43 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 brickrd wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 RaFox17 wrote:
Terraform is terrible against mech. Narrow corridors for zerg to die in. There really isn't a map in the pool that's good against mech. Iron Fortress I guess it's the meta as much as the map pool the more terrans develop the gumiho style that softly defends everything until BC's the more hopeless macro games against mech get I'm still curious as to what the answer actually is. Because its not Roaches/Hydra/drops/infestors/lings/banes/mutas/ultras or any combination that I've seen or tried personally roach all-in But doesn't that get shut down hard versus a player who is already building tanks?
you show them mutalisks and hope that the tiny brains of a mech player fully switch into thor production, then +1 speed roach flood kills thor hellbat with 2 siege tanks
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On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
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32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s.  (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%.
so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award
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On July 31 2015 04:46 Noonius wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
-----------------------------------------------------
32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s. (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%. so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award
the (14.93%)^2 is also not accurate as it doesn't take into consideration the rating change after the first series
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Lilbow is currently in 22nd. If he beats TLO and TRUE, and then beats Drogo tomorrow, he'll be tied for 20th and only 450 points away from Blizzcon.
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The answer to mech is Vipers, that's been known for quite a while. Only the actual play required is hard as hell.
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Drogo vs Apo shouldn't be too much of a problem, I mean, the guy lost to Desrow
Edit : but then upper semis will probably be a french teamkill 
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On July 31 2015 04:47 Ej_ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:46 Noonius wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
-----------------------------------------------------
32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s. (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%. so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award the (14.93%)^2 is also not accurate as it doesn't take into consideration the rating change after the first series
Yeah the history is important but frankly it's gone. I don't have the Aligulac source code so I can't run the simulations on my own.
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your Country52797 Posts
On July 31 2015 04:47 Ej_ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:46 Noonius wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
-----------------------------------------------------
32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s. (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%. so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award the (14.93%)^2 is also not accurate as it doesn't take into consideration the rating change after the first series
This implies that BBoongBBoong is somehow better shortly after defeating Snute.
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Lorning
Belgica34432 Posts
"Never tell me the odds" - BBoongBBoong
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Did the FanTaSy - TRUE series live up to the expectations ? I had to miss it.
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On July 31 2015 04:47 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:47 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:46 Noonius wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
-----------------------------------------------------
32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s. (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%. so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award the (14.93%)^2 is also not accurate as it doesn't take into consideration the rating change after the first series This implies that BBoongBBoong is somehow better shortly after defeating Snute.
Well yeah, that's how Elo works.
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On July 31 2015 04:47 The_Templar wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:47 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:46 Noonius wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 The_Templar wrote:On July 31 2015 04:42 IntoTheheart wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 Shellshock wrote:BBoongBBoong is the 1% (2083) Snute 0-0 BBoongBBoong (1451)
-----------------------------------------------------
32.71% 4-0 0-4 0.35%
31.89% 4-1 1-4 1.07%
19.43% 4-2 2-4 2.02%
9.47% 4-3 3-4 3.05%
-----------------------------------------------------
93.51% 6.49%
Median outcome: Snute 4-1 BBoongBBoong This is not a good way of using this tool. Bayesian elo makes it such that it assumes that this is a Bo7, but in reality, it's 2xBo3. So you should re-do the calculation by with Bo3s. (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (1451) BBoongBBoong 0-0 Snute (2083)
-----------------------------------------------------
5.94% 2-0 0-2 57.19%
8.99% 2-1 1-2 27.88%
-----------------------------------------------------
14.93% 85.07%
Median outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 Snute (14.93%)^2 chance, or about 2.23%. so, about the same chance as Leonardo DiCaprio winning an Academy Award the (14.93%)^2 is also not accurate as it doesn't take into consideration the rating change after the first series This implies that BBoongBBoong is somehow better shortly after defeating Snute.
he must have been better in the first place to beat Snute than the initial ranking implies
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United States97276 Posts
On July 31 2015 04:48 Lorning wrote:
"Never tell me the odds" - BBoongBBoong
the odds of B4 winning this tournament = 0
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your Country52797 Posts
On July 31 2015 04:48 Lorning wrote:
"Never tell me the odds" - BBoongBBoong
Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating a ZvZ against Snute is approximately 3,720 to 1.
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On July 31 2015 04:48 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Did the FanTaSy - TRUE series live up to the expectations ? I had to miss it.
kind of, it surely was a bit weird
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On July 31 2015 04:45 Ej_ wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:45 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:43 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 brickrd wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 RaFox17 wrote:
Terraform is terrible against mech. Narrow corridors for zerg to die in. There really isn't a map in the pool that's good against mech. Iron Fortress I guess it's the meta as much as the map pool the more terrans develop the gumiho style that softly defends everything until BC's the more hopeless macro games against mech get I'm still curious as to what the answer actually is. Because its not Roaches/Hydra/drops/infestors/lings/banes/mutas/ultras or any combination that I've seen or tried personally roach all-in But doesn't that get shut down hard versus a player who is already building tanks? you show them mutalisks and hope that the tiny brains of a mech player fully switch into thor production, then +1 speed roach flood kills thor hellbat with 2 siege tanks
But what happens when that doesn't happen?
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On July 31 2015 04:49 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:45 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:45 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:43 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 brickrd wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 RaFox17 wrote:
Terraform is terrible against mech. Narrow corridors for zerg to die in. There really isn't a map in the pool that's good against mech. Iron Fortress I guess it's the meta as much as the map pool the more terrans develop the gumiho style that softly defends everything until BC's the more hopeless macro games against mech get I'm still curious as to what the answer actually is. Because its not Roaches/Hydra/drops/infestors/lings/banes/mutas/ultras or any combination that I've seen or tried personally roach all-in But doesn't that get shut down hard versus a player who is already building tanks? you show them mutalisks and hope that the tiny brains of a mech player fully switch into thor production, then +1 speed roach flood kills thor hellbat with 2 siege tanks But what happens when that doesn't happen?
You start praying.
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On July 31 2015 04:48 [PkF] Wire wrote:
Did the FanTaSy - TRUE series live up to the expectations ? I had to miss it.
Yes ! Crazy as fuck ! Didn't see game 2 but games 1 and 3 were amazing.
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On July 31 2015 04:49 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:45 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:45 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:43 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 brickrd wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 RaFox17 wrote:
Terraform is terrible against mech. Narrow corridors for zerg to die in. There really isn't a map in the pool that's good against mech. Iron Fortress I guess it's the meta as much as the map pool the more terrans develop the gumiho style that softly defends everything until BC's the more hopeless macro games against mech get I'm still curious as to what the answer actually is. Because its not Roaches/Hydra/drops/infestors/lings/banes/mutas/ultras or any combination that I've seen or tried personally roach all-in But doesn't that get shut down hard versus a player who is already building tanks? you show them mutalisks and hope that the tiny brains of a mech player fully switch into thor production, then +1 speed roach flood kills thor hellbat with 2 siege tanks But what happens when that doesn't happen?
You die sooner than in a long macro game.
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On July 31 2015 04:49 chipmonklord17 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2015 04:45 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:45 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:44 Ej_ wrote:On July 31 2015 04:43 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:40 brickrd wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 chipmonklord17 wrote:On July 31 2015 04:38 RaFox17 wrote:
Terraform is terrible against mech. Narrow corridors for zerg to die in. There really isn't a map in the pool that's good against mech. Iron Fortress I guess it's the meta as much as the map pool the more terrans develop the gumiho style that softly defends everything until BC's the more hopeless macro games against mech get I'm still curious as to what the answer actually is. Because its not Roaches/Hydra/drops/infestors/lings/banes/mutas/ultras or any combination that I've seen or tried personally roach all-in But doesn't that get shut down hard versus a player who is already building tanks? you show them mutalisks and hope that the tiny brains of a mech player fully switch into thor production, then +1 speed roach flood kills thor hellbat with 2 siege tanks But what happens when that doesn't happen?
you don't waste an hour waiting to die
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