[WCS EU] RO32 Group C Premier Season 3 2013 - Page 2

On August 29 2013 07:20 Entirety wrote:

Opening Match
Mvp vs. ShoWTimE

Mvp's TvP: 68%
ShoWTimE's PvT: 58%
Head to Head Record: 0-0


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Wow, even diehard Mvp fans have to feel slightly worried here. Mvp lost to both Grubby and HasuObs, looking very shaky against Protoss. On the other hand, ShoWTimE has a pretty decent PvT win-ratio, sporting a 7-1 record in his last 8 series (including a victory over LucifroN). Then, add in the Korea-Europe wall of lag, and you might wonder if an upset might occur here. Certainly, Mvp has to prepare well, for ShoWTimE is merely one of the many great Protoss players in WCS EU Season 3. This match will be a suitable litmus test - if Mvp loses to ShoWTimE, then his chances at the S3 championship start looking to be quite slim indeed.

Other Matches

Mvp's TvT: 59%
Noname's TvT: 65%
Head to Head Record: 0-0


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

Looking at Noname's TvT record, you would expect him to be a beast in that match-up. Upon closer inspection, he has not faced many notable players and none of his opponents were on the level of Mvp, leading Aligulac to heavily favor Mvp. There is a big unknown factor: Mvp has not played a TvT since his 2-3 loss to INnoVation! In other words, we have no idea of his current TvT skill, and Mvp may not have practiced that match-up. Despite this, Mvp's TvT has always remained respectable, even while his other match-ups may falter. Simply relying on his fundamental mechanics should be enough to pull him through this match without significant difficulties.

Mvp's TvZ: 66%
VortiX's ZvT: 59%
Head to Head Record: 3-1 (75%)


Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

VortiX is not to be underestimated by any means. If Mvp is not careful, VortiX easily has the skill to knock him out of the group. The advantage that Mvp has is the match-up. Mvp's TvT is unknown, his TvP is shaky, but Mvp's TvZ has actually looked pretty good recently, especially against foreign Zergs. Most recently, Mvp mixed in Banshee harass, some Hellbat/Marauder timings, and Widow Mine pushes and crushed through DIMAGA without too much trouble. If a weakened Mvp shows up, then VortiX can run over Mvp... but if the Mvp we expect shows up, VortiX will simply be another foreign Zerg out of many who will fall to the Terran King.

Overall Outlook

Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

This is Mvp's chance to become the first player to win two seasons in one year. The disadvantages: he has to prepare for every race, and the almighty wall of lag. The advantages: he managed to grab a relatively easy group, and he possesses the Mvp factor.

Even with his disappointing exit from Season 2, Mvp still managed to overcome the Ro32 and make it to the Ro16. In this group, Mvp is a solid favorite, but it's actually likely that Mvp won't emerge unscathed. Perhaps a surprise upset against ShoWTimE (showcasing his TvP woes) or a disappointing loss to VortiX may give Mvp fans miniature heart attacks, but Mvp should pull through in the end.

Predictions
Mvp 1-2 ShoWTimE (**the upset!**)
Noname 0-2 VortiX
ShoWTimE 1-2 VortiX
Mvp 2-0 Noname
ShoWTimE 0-2 Mvp

VortiX and Mvp advance!