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Lone Star Clash 2: $35k SC2 + LoL, Nov 10-11 in TX - Page 56

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
11212 CommentsPost a Reply
Prev 1 54 55 56 57 58 561 Next
WindWolf
Profile Blog Joined July 2012
Sweden11767 Posts
November 10 2012 17:55 GMT
#1101
On November 11 2012 02:54 -TesteR- wrote:
Is there any hope for a Nani vs Stephano?

They can meet in Winners bracket final if they keep winning their games
EZ4ENCE
Fusilero
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United Kingdom50293 Posts
November 10 2012 17:55 GMT
#1102
Stephano vs iSDeadMeat starting now.
Glorious SEA doto
Demonidze
Profile Joined May 2012
194 Posts
November 10 2012 17:55 GMT
#1103
On November 11 2012 02:54 Shellshock1122 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:54 Demonidze wrote:
its GanZi, with the capital Z, not GanJi ..

no Z sound in korean. pronounced as a J


ahh, well i see now why they pronounce it like that. still sounds a bit funny tho.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32747 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1104
On November 11 2012 02:55 AlternativeEgo wrote:
Stephano vs Axslav on B


I feel a sign should be placed saying

"If you wish to see a murder take place, please move to Stream B"
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
AlternativeEgo
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden17309 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1105
On November 11 2012 02:55 Fusilero wrote:
Stephano vs iSDeadMeat starting now.


wow so bm
Mark Munoz looks like Gretorp
Boucot
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
France15997 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1106
On November 11 2012 02:53 WindWolf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:52 Boucot wrote:
Next matches on main stream : CranK-ThorZaIN and NaNiwa-Hawk (Day[9] on twitter)

Thanks for the info. Gogo NaNiwa

In fact they will be the next matches casted by Day[9]. I was presuming they would be on main stream but I'm maybe wrong as Day[9] is no longer on main stream.
Former SC2 writer for Millenium - twitter.com/Boucot
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9296 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1107
Go Axslav!!!
You're now breathing manually
jnd
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Czech Republic915 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1108
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks

at least you fixed the qxc :p
Team 8 BaBy will be the next Terran Bonjwa in HoTS | HSC V, the best tournament in 2012 | GD Studio #1 no fluff esports show
Demonidze
Profile Joined May 2012
194 Posts
November 10 2012 17:56 GMT
#1109
On November 11 2012 02:55 WindWolf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:54 -TesteR- wrote:
Is there any hope for a Nani vs Stephano?

They can meet in Winners bracket final if they keep winning their games


they can also meet at losers finals aswell ;p
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1110
who is casting on the B stream right now?
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
Coolhwip
Profile Joined March 2011
Sweden1381 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1111
On November 11 2012 02:54 -TesteR- wrote:
Is there any hope for a Nani vs Stephano?

Nah, if they both hit the final they decided to not play it and split the money. Instead of the finals they will show reruns of Bananaman.
crack
Fusilero
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United Kingdom50293 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1112
God has intervened both iSDeadMeat and EG.Stephano have crashed.
Glorious SEA doto
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32747 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1113
Curse you AT&T!
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17731 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1114
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks

lol you should'be written QXC for <0.0000000% just to see people go crazy
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10142 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1115
GG
Toxi78
Profile Joined May 2010
966 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-10 17:59:18
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1116
On November 11 2012 02:41 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:40 DOUDOU wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:37 TheBB wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:
then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense?
just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious.
why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense?
the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed.
your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at.

The method is described in detail here: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850

Feel free to make specific and constructive criticism there instead of polluting this thread. I never claimed they mean anything. It's up to everyone to interpret them as they please.

i'm no statistician but is 0% even suppose to be possible?

Ah, no, they're just estimates from a large amount of samples (50k). Qxc has a very small probability of winning. It's not zero but it's so small that it might as well be. (Poor guy.)


now run the script to see what his chances were to all-kill IM with beating MVP.
yet it happend.
because sc2 is nothing like chess and ELO rankings don't make a lot of sense in it.
sure you did a good job with all this programming, as a statistician i reckon it's a bit of work (though far from being very complicated for anyone that has a bit of knowledge, but you fail to see that the problems come from the method and not the mathematical background.
when programming something like this, the question is not what you develop the most in your thread aka the mathematical proof (anyone with some experience in R or python or w/e can do that), but the way you get the probability of player A beating player B.
as you say yourself in the thread "if you accept that my Elo model is a perfect predictor". This is hilarious. Making statistics and using the biggest authority argument ever : "elo model is a perfect predictor". I'm just trying to open your eyes, great things could be done (and i'd be very interested to work in this or at least give it a few thoughts).
All you need is not a huge perfect ranking of all active players to make such stats, it's the most accurate way to describe a player's chances to beat another player. we both know you and me that starcraft 2 is a not a transitive game so basically basing your whole analysis on ELO which is a ranking that pretty much compares the wins and loses of a player vs everyone against the wins and loses of the other player doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
we can further develop by PMs if you want.
i'm sorry i was rude at first.

ps: why not use R instead of python, i find python terrible.

could you also please detail the probability of player A to beat player B based on their ELOs, i'm interested anyways.
Fionn
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States23455 Posts
November 10 2012 17:57 GMT
#1117
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.
Writerhttps://twitter.com/FionnOnFire
pedrlz
Profile Joined September 2012
Brazil5234 Posts
November 10 2012 17:58 GMT
#1118
qxc cant win, omg
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
November 10 2012 17:58 GMT
#1119
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks

International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.

I know.

I'd be willing to do it. -_-
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
Fusilero
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United Kingdom50293 Posts
November 10 2012 17:59 GMT
#1120
An eye tracker? Well that's cute LSC.
Glorious SEA doto
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