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Lone Star Clash 2: $35k SC2 + LoL, Nov 10-11 in TX - Page 57

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
11212 CommentsPost a Reply
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Zheryn
Profile Joined December 2010
Sweden3653 Posts
November 10 2012 17:59 GMT
#1121
On November 11 2012 02:55 AlternativeEgo wrote:
Stephano vs Axslav on B


Thank you for pointing this out, don't want to miss Stephano!
hundred thousand krouner
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32742 Posts
November 10 2012 17:59 GMT
#1122
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.


I've been wondering why International ELO has had no updates for such a long time.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
AlternativeEgo
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden17309 Posts
November 10 2012 17:59 GMT
#1123
The colours are nailed. One thing at the time.
Mark Munoz looks like Gretorp
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10131 Posts
November 10 2012 17:59 GMT
#1124
What are those naboo headphones GanZi is using ?
DOUDOU
Profile Joined October 2011
Wales2940 Posts
November 10 2012 18:00 GMT
#1125
On November 11 2012 02:57 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks

lol you should'be written QXC for <0.0000000% just to see people go crazy

under 0?
so the win has chances to qxc the tournament?
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.

please tell me the liquibet quys are working on something
Feast | Grubby | Mvp | Polt | Fantasy | Last | MMA | forGG | Leenock | Soberphano | Scarlett cutiepie
Derrida
Profile Joined March 2011
2885 Posts
November 10 2012 18:00 GMT
#1126
Eye tracker showing the monitor while Ganzi is drinking something and not looking at the monitor? lol
#1 Grubby Fan.
Hylirion
Profile Joined March 2012
Netherlands968 Posts
November 10 2012 18:00 GMT
#1127
On November 11 2012 02:59 Godwrath wrote:
What are those naboo headphones GanZi is using ?


Industrial sound blockers
RiceAgainst
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United States1849 Posts
November 10 2012 18:00 GMT
#1128
Haha, eye tracker while GanZi was drinking! Eye tracker seems like a cool way to watch games, though probably not until the mid-to-late game would it see better use.
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
November 10 2012 18:01 GMT
#1129
lol eyetrackers :D

who are the casters on stream B with stephano vs axslav right now?
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
Apom
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
France656 Posts
November 10 2012 18:01 GMT
#1130
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.

What's up with that by the way ?
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17683 Posts
November 10 2012 18:01 GMT
#1131
On November 11 2012 02:57 Toxi78 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:41 TheBB wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:40 DOUDOU wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:37 TheBB wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:
then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense?
just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious.
why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense?
the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed.
your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at.

The method is described in detail here: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850

Feel free to make specific and constructive criticism there instead of polluting this thread. I never claimed they mean anything. It's up to everyone to interpret them as they please.

i'm no statistician but is 0% even suppose to be possible?

Ah, no, they're just estimates from a large amount of samples (50k). Qxc has a very small probability of winning. It's not zero but it's so small that it might as well be. (Poor guy.)


now run the script to see what his chances were to all-kill IM with beating MVP.
yet it happend.
because sc2 is nothing like chess and ELO rankings don't make a lot of sense in it.
sure you did a good job with all this programming, as a statistician i reckon it's a bit of work (though far from being very complicated for anyone that has a bit of knowledge, but you fail to see that the problems come from the method and not the mathematical background.
when programming something like this, the question is not what you develop the most in your thread aka the mathematical proof (anyone with some experience in R or python or w/e can do that), but the way you get the probability of player A beating player B.
as you say yourself in the thread "if you accept that my Elo model is a perfect predictor". This is hilarious. Making statistics and using the biggest authority argument ever : "elo model is a perfect predictor". I'm just trying to open your eyes, great things could be done (and i'd be very interested to work in this or at least give it a few thoughts).
All you need is not a huge perfect ranking of all active players to make such stats, it's the most accurate way to describe a player's chances to beat another player. we both know you and me that starcraft 2 is a not a transitive game so basically basing your whole analysis on ELO which is a ranking that pretty much compares the wins and loses of a player vs everyone against the wins and loses of the other player doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
we can further develop by PMs if you want.
i'm sorry i was rude at first.

ps: why not use R instead of python, i find python terrible.

could you also please detail the probability of player A to beat player B based on their ELOs, i'm interested anyways.

lol wtf does the language have to do with this? maybe he should write it in FORTRAN???
and honestly his predictions are pretty good, Qxc and Axslav at the bottom, Stephano and Violet at the top, seems pretty legit to me
"Expert" mods4ever.com
DOUDOU
Profile Joined October 2011
Wales2940 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-10 18:03:23
November 10 2012 18:02 GMT
#1132
On November 11 2012 02:57 Toxi78 wrote:
ps: why not use R instead of python, i find python terrible.

die

python is the future
Feast | Grubby | Mvp | Polt | Fantasy | Last | MMA | forGG | Leenock | Soberphano | Scarlett cutiepie
MuR
Profile Joined December 2011
United States25 Posts
November 10 2012 18:03 GMT
#1133
Do it Axslav. It can happen.
DOUDOU
Profile Joined October 2011
Wales2940 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-10 18:04:40
November 10 2012 18:04 GMT
#1134
omg not a single game without lags or craches!


bad luck brian running the tournament
Feast | Grubby | Mvp | Polt | Fantasy | Last | MMA | forGG | Leenock | Soberphano | Scarlett cutiepie
WigglingSquid
Profile Joined August 2011
5194 Posts
November 10 2012 18:04 GMT
#1135
On November 11 2012 03:01 Apom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.

What's up with that by the way ?

Most likely the same that's been going on with the LiquidBets. No automated system in place and a shortage of volunteers?
Toxi78
Profile Joined May 2010
966 Posts
November 10 2012 18:05 GMT
#1136
On November 11 2012 03:02 DOUDOU wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 02:57 Toxi78 wrote:
ps: why not use R instead of python, i find python terrible.

die

python is the future

i never said python is bad, i said i find it terrible. im entitled to my own opinion, just like you are.
PhoenixVoid
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
Canada32742 Posts
November 10 2012 18:05 GMT
#1137
The only way I see Axslav winning is by faking a WonWonWon and tricking Stephano as MaNa and Seed did on Stephano recently.
I'm afraid of demented knife-wielding escaped lunatic libertarian zombie mutants
AlternativeEgo
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden17309 Posts
November 10 2012 18:06 GMT
#1138
On November 11 2012 03:04 WigglingSquid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 11 2012 03:01 Apom wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:57 Fionn wrote:
On November 11 2012 02:55 TheBB wrote:
Currently.
+ Show Spoiler +
Lone Star Clash 2

Most likely winners:
      Stephano: 40.554%
      viOLet: 34.816%
      Polt: 7.568%
      TheStC: 6.600%
      CranK: 5.300%
      Bomber: 3.960%
      BabyKnight: 0.518%
      Sheth: 0.224%
      Hawk: 0.170%
      ToD: 0.112%
      GanZi: 0.090%
      NaNiwa: 0.034%
      Ret: 0.026%
      Axslav: 0.014%
      ThorZaIN: 0.014%
      qxc: >0.000%

Life expectancy:
      Stephano: 5.562 rounds (top 2)
      viOLet: 5.101 rounds (top 3)
      Polt: 3.975 rounds (top 4)
      CranK: 3.694 rounds (top 4)
      TheStC: 3.001 rounds (top 6)
      Bomber: 2.688 rounds (top 6)
      Hawk: 1.881 rounds (top 8)
      BabyKnight: 1.845 rounds (top 8)
      GanZi: 1.817 rounds (top 8)
      NaNiwa: 1.294 rounds (top 12)
      Ret: 1.277 rounds (top 12)
      Sheth: 1.118 rounds (top 12)
      ToD: 1.027 rounds (top 12)
      ThorZaIN: 0.917 rounds (top 12)
      qxc: 0.491 rounds (top 16)
      Axslav: 0.311 rounds (top 16)


/me ducks


International ELO hasn't been updated in like two months.

What's up with that by the way ?

Most likely the same that's been going on with the LiquidBets. No automated system in place and a shortage of volunteers?


No one has time when there's so much sc2 going on. Oversaturation is killing statistics.
Mark Munoz looks like Gretorp
Fatta
Profile Joined May 2011
Germany148 Posts
November 10 2012 18:06 GMT
#1139
Why is Stephano playing on his Millenium account? Shouldn't he use something like EGStephano?
Mia san Mia!
Glurkenspurk
Profile Joined November 2010
United States1915 Posts
November 10 2012 18:06 GMT
#1140
On November 11 2012 03:04 DOUDOU wrote:
omg not a single game without lags or craches!

lan, technology, etc..


I really wish blizz would just stop fucking around and give us lan. Could you imagine how many more awesome FGC style grassroots tournaments we'd have when we don't require super internet with amazing stability just to run a small tournament?

Shit like this is unacceptable in 2012, especially when a lot of lag is completely out of the tournament's hands.
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