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On November 11 2012 02:37 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:
then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense?
just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious.
why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense?
the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed.
your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at. The method is described in detail here: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850Feel free to make specific and constructive criticism there instead of polluting this thread. I never claimed they mean anything. It's up to everyone to interpret them as they please.
I appreciate your work sir.
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On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread?
Judging from the nature of Internet forums in general, I suppose 100%
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On November 11 2012 02:38 Chewbacca. wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:38 clocked wrote:On November 11 2012 02:35 Dodgin wrote:
Just woke up, Babyknight 2-0'd STC and Sheth took a map off Violet? Going pretty well for the foreigners so far. It's called jet lag. STC has probably been in the US for over a week now given he was playing in MLG. Doesn't Violet live in the US?
His wrists are on bad shape too and Babyknight is from the US aswell.
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France13018 Posts
Where can I find the schedule for ro16 please?
Or when does Polt, ToD and ThorZain matches start?
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United Kingdom50293 Posts
On November 11 2012 02:39 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:38 Chewbacca. wrote:On November 11 2012 02:38 clocked wrote:On November 11 2012 02:35 Dodgin wrote:
Just woke up, Babyknight 2-0'd STC and Sheth took a map off Violet? Going pretty well for the foreigners so far. It's called jet lag. STC has probably been in the US for over a week now given he was playing in MLG. Doesn't Violet live in the US? His wrists are on bad shape too.
There's also cross server lag, thestc is slumping, protoss imba, thestc isn't taking the tournament seriously, ESPORTS being dead and so on.
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On November 11 2012 02:34 Derrida wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:On November 11 2012 02:26 TheBB wrote:On November 11 2012 02:22 Toxi78 wrote:On November 11 2012 02:16 Shellshock1122 wrote:On November 11 2012 02:16 Sated wrote:On November 11 2012 02:15 TheBB wrote:After BK vs TheStC. + Show Spoiler +Lone Star Clash 2
Most likely winners:
Stephano: 41.656%
viOLet: 33.146%
Polt: 7.848%
TheStC: 6.464%
CranK: 5.216%
Bomber: 4.290%
BabyKnight: 0.492%
Sheth: 0.374%
Hawk: 0.206%
ToD: 0.106%
GanZi: 0.080%
Ret: 0.058%
NaNiwa: 0.032%
ThorZaIN: 0.020%
Axslav: 0.012%
qxc: 0.000%
Life expectancy:
Stephano: 5.576 rounds (top 2)
viOLet: 4.933 rounds (top 3)
Polt: 3.986 rounds (top 4)
CranK: 3.681 rounds (top 4)
TheStC: 2.988 rounds (top 6)
Bomber: 2.741 rounds (top 6)
Hawk: 1.882 rounds (top 8)
BabyKnight: 1.823 rounds (top 8)
GanZi: 1.647 rounds (top 8)
Ret: 1.469 rounds (top 12)
NaNiwa: 1.296 rounds (top 12)
Sheth: 1.250 rounds (top 12)
ToD: 1.017 rounds (top 12)
ThorZaIN: 0.928 rounds (top 12)
qxc: 0.476 rounds (top 16)
Axslav: 0.308 rounds (top 16)
What is that based on? International Elo well these stats are incredibly bullshit, tod having more "chances" to win the tournament than ganzi who was GSL TOP4 1 year ago, while tod has never accomplished anything ever on sc2. and god knows with what background i say this, im a french wc3 player. Pretty tired of hearing things like these. Sure, you have to take it with a grain of salt. I've said that like 20 times now. If it's based on international Elo, then it's necessarily based on performances in international tournaments. Does Ganzi have any to speak of? Not really. So it's not surprising that he is so unfavoured. Still, you'd be surprised how little a top 4 GSL placement a year past has to say. How good was Jinro a year after his? then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense? just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious. why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense? the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed. your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at. You're not very good at math are you?
Well, philosophy goldenboy, he's still more readable than you are! 
Edit: nevermind the joke, lapsus, for some reason I processed your nick as Deleuze.
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On November 11 2012 02:37 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:
then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense?
just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious.
why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense?
the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed.
your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at. The method is described in detail here: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850Feel free to make specific and constructive criticism there instead of polluting this thread. I never claimed they mean anything. It's up to everyone to interpret them as they please.
i'm no statistician but is 0% even suppose to be possible?
On November 11 2012 02:38 Mouzone wrote:
One more shirt button, please.
my exact thought
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I thought it was Ganji? like a rasta was saying it?
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On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread?
It's already happened, so 1 I guess
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When will the alien spaceship be sending us back earth's best SC2 casters?
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On November 11 2012 02:40 liberate71 wrote:
I thought it was Ganji? like a rasta was saying it?
Your pronounciation is correct, there is no real "Z" sound in Korea, so it is replaced with a "J" sound.
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On November 11 2012 02:39 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:38 Chewbacca. wrote:On November 11 2012 02:38 clocked wrote:On November 11 2012 02:35 Dodgin wrote:
Just woke up, Babyknight 2-0'd STC and Sheth took a map off Violet? Going pretty well for the foreigners so far. It's called jet lag. STC has probably been in the US for over a week now given he was playing in MLG. Doesn't Violet live in the US? His wrists are on bad shape too and Babyknight is from the US aswell.
Dem excuses. People complaining that koreans are overdominating the scene then when foreigners take games/series from them you try to find every excuses possible, it's actually very funny.
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On November 11 2012 02:40 MangoMountain wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread? It's already happened, so 1 I guess
But one is super low. It should be like 100000000000000000 or something.
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On November 11 2012 02:40 DOUDOU wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:37 TheBB wrote:On November 11 2012 02:32 Toxi78 wrote:
then there is something totally moronic about the way you actually get to these percentages? polt and stephano being in the same bracket, having 40% for stephano to win and 7% for polt to win makes little to no sense?
just the fact that you throw out these statistics like it means anything is totally hilarious.
why not compare the last 5 bo3s of the players (regardless of who they played) so you get their shape, then make a totally ridiculous stat in which lets say axslav won his last 5 matches and stephano lost his last 5 and have a ranking that adds up to 100% and doesnt look mathematically flawed yet makes no sense?
the fact that mathematically your stats make sense doesn't mean that the method is not flawed.
your statistics are bullshit, there is so much statistical bias in them that they are just worth laughing at. The method is described in detail here: http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?id=380850Feel free to make specific and constructive criticism there instead of polluting this thread. I never claimed they mean anything. It's up to everyone to interpret them as they please. i'm no statistician but is 0% even suppose to be possible?
Ah, no, they're just estimates from a large amount of samples (50k). Qxc has a very small probability of winning. It's not zero but it's so small that it might as well be. (Poor guy.)
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I keep thinking there's something wrong with the colors of my monitor LOL!
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United States97276 Posts
On November 11 2012 02:41 AlternativeEgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:40 MangoMountain wrote:On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread? It's already happened, so 1 I guess But one is super low. It should be like 100000000000000000 or something.
1 = 100%
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On November 11 2012 02:41 AlternativeEgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:40 MangoMountain wrote:On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread? It's already happened, so 1 I guess But one is super low. It should be like 100000000000000000 or something.
I thought 1 = 100% D:
I hate statistics
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I'm really pumped to see Ret play
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On November 11 2012 02:42 Shellshock1122 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2012 02:41 AlternativeEgo wrote:On November 11 2012 02:40 MangoMountain wrote:On November 11 2012 02:37 Integra wrote:On November 11 2012 02:36 Coolhwip wrote:
Im studying mathematic statistics right now with alot of focus on probability. Ask me anything what's the probability of people starting to argue about statistics in this thread? It's already happened, so 1 I guess But one is super low. It should be like 100000000000000000 or something. 1 = 100%
100% of 1 yes but 50% of 2. It's math.
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EPT
