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On August 17 2012 04:09 zefreak wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 03:59 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:58 IPA wrote:On August 17 2012 03:51 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:38 vOkk wrote:
[quote]
Why can't you just admit a 4 time GSL champion can be beat? He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. What a stupid claim without any evidence whatsoever. Man, welcome to the internet. You're being trolled hard. Do not respond. Can you honestly not tell? He's being serious, that's the problem  No he isn't you retard, starception is a known troll.
Actually that guy is right, koreans really do recover slower then foreigners..
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Northern Ireland27459 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:25 habeck wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:09 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:58 IPA wrote:On August 17 2012 03:51 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:
[quote]
He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. What a stupid claim without any evidence whatsoever. Man, welcome to the internet. You're being trolled hard. Do not respond. Can you honestly not tell? He's being serious, that's the problem No he isn't you retard, starception is a known troll. Actually that guy is right, koreans really do recover slower then foreigners..
Is there any chance that such statements could be expanded upon? I'm not asking for peer-reviewed studies posted in the thread, just a little expasion.
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United States15275 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog. or not so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^ thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene. lol yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made? yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot. Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action. I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds.
Well, no shit. But that's not his point at all.
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On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog. or not so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^ thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene. lol yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made? yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot. Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action. I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds. Well, no shit.
His point then is still valid.
I could bet on Federer every match, win 80% of the time, and potentially be losing money.
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On August 17 2012 04:07 starception wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 03:56 Moka wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:38 vOkk wrote:On August 17 2012 03:37 starception wrote:
How did a 4 time GSL champion lose to a person who hasn't even touched the GSL? I think it's extended jet lag because jet lag affects people differently. For example, MC recovers from jet lag very fast, but NesTea takes probably 3 days to recover. Just like puma and inori were most likely still jet lagged, that's literally the only reason NesTea, inori and puma lost to their non Korean opponents. Why can't you just admit a 4 time GSL champion can be beat? He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. Wow, i smell troll ._. .. Anyway, your race have no influence with the ability to deal with jet lag It's not their race or ethnicity, it's the culture. When have you heard a 3 or more time GSL champion (or similar level) say "I want to go outside of Korea"? Never. They don't want to go out of Korea so they don't practice to recover quickly from jet lag. Foreigners on the other hand love to go to places like Korea, whether its to train or visit...so they prepare themselves to recover from jet lag faster.
Quoting myself for emphasis
User was warned for this post
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On August 17 2012 04:03 Lysanias wrote:a TON more played higher % on each matchup better online and offline results on Kas called "the destroyer" for his mechanics ... Jup Illusion it is !
Kas and Illusion has also played against each other 8 times before and Kas has won 6 of them.
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On August 17 2012 04:30 starception wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:07 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:56 Moka wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:38 vOkk wrote:On August 17 2012 03:37 starception wrote:
How did a 4 time GSL champion lose to a person who hasn't even touched the GSL? I think it's extended jet lag because jet lag affects people differently. For example, MC recovers from jet lag very fast, but NesTea takes probably 3 days to recover. Just like puma and inori were most likely still jet lagged, that's literally the only reason NesTea, inori and puma lost to their non Korean opponents. Why can't you just admit a 4 time GSL champion can be beat? He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. Wow, i smell troll ._. .. Anyway, your race have no influence with the ability to deal with jet lag It's not their race or ethnicity, it's the culture. When have you heard a 3 or more time GSL champion (or similar level) say "I want to go outside of Korea"? Never. They don't want to go out of Korea so they don't practice to recover quickly from jet lag. Foreigners on the other hand love to go to places like Korea, whether its to train or visit...so they prepare themselves to recover from jet lag faster. Quoting myself for emphasis
Just stop it.
A troll like you should be banned.
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United States15275 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:28 FairForever wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog. or not so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^ thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene. lol yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made? yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot. Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action. I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds. Well, no shit. His point then is still valid. I could bet on Federer every match, win 80% of the time, and potentially be losing money.
And where does this hypothetical scenario ever fit into the conversation? He started an argument with someone else over a casting complaint, not the handicap on a website like Pinnacle Sports. Then I stated that I bet on Nerchio, he stated that the decision was not a smart one, and I disagreed.
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On August 17 2012 04:30 starception wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:07 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:56 Moka wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:38 vOkk wrote:On August 17 2012 03:37 starception wrote:
How did a 4 time GSL champion lose to a person who hasn't even touched the GSL? I think it's extended jet lag because jet lag affects people differently. For example, MC recovers from jet lag very fast, but NesTea takes probably 3 days to recover. Just like puma and inori were most likely still jet lagged, that's literally the only reason NesTea, inori and puma lost to their non Korean opponents. Why can't you just admit a 4 time GSL champion can be beat? He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. Wow, i smell troll ._. .. Anyway, your race have no influence with the ability to deal with jet lag It's not their race or ethnicity, it's the culture. When have you heard a 3 or more time GSL champion (or similar level) say "I want to go outside of Korea"? Never. They don't want to go out of Korea so they don't practice to recover quickly from jet lag. Foreigners on the other hand love to go to places like Korea, whether its to train or visit...so they prepare themselves to recover from jet lag faster. Quoting myself for emphasis
Yep, thats the point.
You probably all remember, how sheth made 24H streaming event and donated money to charity. Actually the reason to do this was to train for jetlag.
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On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog. or not so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^ thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene. lol yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made? yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot. Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action. I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds. Well, no shit. But that's not his point at all.
I'm pretty sure that is his point. After all, if you win 65% of your bets, and he is making the argument that you could still be -EV, the only possible explanation is that you aren't taking bets with the correct odds.
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United States15275 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:40 zefreak wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog. or not so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^ thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene. lol yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made? yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot. Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action. I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds. Well, no shit. But that's not his point at all. I'm pretty sure that is his point. After all, if you win 65% of your bets, and he is making the argument that you could still be -EV, the only possible explanation is that you aren't taking bets with the correct odds.
Obviously you can win the majority of your bets and still lose money in the long run. That is the point of the heuristic system. It evaluates the matchups independently of the betting odds so you can benefit from correct decisions rather than elaborate risk management. Honestly all you need to do is get more than 52% of your bets correct and you will at the least break even.
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Koreans: Win 95% of the time other 5% was Jet Lag =/
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On August 17 2012 04:44 JonIrenicus wrote:
Is IEM over?
No it is not. It goes on for another 2 days I think.
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Fuck yeah kas. Been out and missed the last match.
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On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
lol
yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made?
yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example? I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet.
try reading what i said again
thats likely too many bets
On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot.
we were talking about betting, what is this about?
The odds in the ForGG-Nerchio were at roughly ~1.71/2.4, although by my estimation they should have been ~2.2/1.8.
On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action.
how are they relevant at all and when are they ever relevant asside for opponents playing differently because of it
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On August 17 2012 04:50 syltz wrote:No it is not. It goes on for another 2 days I think.
3 more days even, finals are sunday!
Day 2 is rebroadcasted at www.twitch.tv/esltv_sc2 at the moment.
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On August 17 2012 03:47 Schnullerbacke13 wrote:
mass orbital > zerg macro. droning up and trading army does not work anymore
Too much drones imo. 100 army supply is far from enough vs 150 and sometime even 165 terran army supply. When Nestea puts spines everywhere, he replaces the drones, while most zergs don't. When you fight MMM you can be 100 vs 150 supply, because 1 infestor will kill 10 supply. When you fight the whole terran arsenal you can't do that because you lose more than you can mine while killing few, even on 5+ bases your economy will slowly die..
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On August 17 2012 04:25 habeck wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2012 04:09 zefreak wrote:On August 17 2012 03:59 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:58 IPA wrote:On August 17 2012 03:51 Mackus wrote:On August 17 2012 03:50 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 Sandermatt wrote:On August 17 2012 03:46 starception wrote:On August 17 2012 03:42 Zambrah wrote:On August 17 2012 03:41 starception wrote:
[quote]
He did get beat, but it was jet lag that defeated him. Props for foreigners for taking advantage of jet lagged Koreans. Now let's see how well players like sortof do in Korea. Good lord, get over it, NesTea's multitasking was subpar and he couldn't deal with Kas' lategame and drops as a result. Sorry, thats reality. It was only subpar because NesTea was so jet lagged. Kas can play well, but unfortunately, NesTea is just 100 times better than him. Again, NesTea was simply jet lagged. Would you say the same if a forigner looses in korea? No because it's a known fact that foreigners deal with jet lag better. They can recover in about an hour or two. What a stupid claim without any evidence whatsoever. Man, welcome to the internet. You're being trolled hard. Do not respond. Can you honestly not tell? He's being serious, that's the problem No he isn't you retard, starception is a known troll. Actually that guy is right, koreans really do recover slower then foreigners..
Did you ever wonder why Korea is GMT+9? The sun rises in the east, so the timezones should start in the eastern hemisphere, yet they don't. This is a secret plan created by most* members of FEA(Foreign Esports Alliance), to weaken koreans. You see, jetlag recovery time is directly proportional with distance from GMT. So, a british player would recover instantly, while koreans take ridiculous time to recover. GMT was set in the UK so it wouldn't blatantly favor one of the members of FEA, but handicap the koreans greatly.
This entire plan was a response to the korean genetic mutations which enable them to sweat way less than foreigners. They assumed we wouldn't notice, but ToD, a prominent foreign researcher, managed to figure it out so the FEA could react in time and restore balance once again.
* Ukraine didn't agree to the plan
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United States15275 Posts
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
try reading what i said again
I am correct for the majority of my bets, and make a good ROI off of them. That's all there is to say.
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
we were talking about betting, what is this about?
Admitting a mistake in my betting on this particular event.
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
how are they relevant at all and when are they ever relevant aside for opponents playing differently because of it
As the WCS is demonstrating, reputation alone can cause opponents to straight-up lose and make dumb mistakes. Reputation is also tied to playstyle, which may or may not be the same as what is advertised. It factors into mindgames although those are largely unpredictable. But most betting odds are directly based on reputation, which I bothered to bring it up in the first place.
Originally this conversation came up around the idea that betting on Nerchio was a good bet. I don't know why we are talking about my personal betting habits.
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EPT
