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[Day 2] IEM Cologne 2012 - Groups A&B - Page 188

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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Prev 1 186 187 188
FreudianTrip
Profile Joined July 2011
Switzerland1983 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-16 21:56:20
August 16 2012 21:56 GMT
#3741
Have I been watching a rebroadcast of somethign I've already watched for an hour?

edit: LOL I HAVE. WHAT A TARD.
Sein
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1811 Posts
August 16 2012 22:02 GMT
#3742
Nerchio beat Puma, ForGG, Inori, but lost to SortOf and DeMuslim?

fakgfdgfdh
Profile Joined May 2012
79 Posts
August 16 2012 22:38 GMT
#3743
On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
On August 16 2012 22:39 ondik wrote:
It's pity Tasteless doesn't know much about foreign scene.. first the Sortof-Demuslim match where Demuslim definitely wasn't a favorite, now Nerchio-Forgg. He was talking as if Forgg was 80/20 favorite to win, while coming into the match Forgg was rather the underdog.

or not
so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money


I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^

thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets


And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene.

lol
yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made?
yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example?


I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot.

Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action.


I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds.


Well, no shit. But that's not his point at all.

lol, how could that possibly not be my point, thats exactly what i said, that you made a useless comment that said nothing. then you actually repeated it. and now i find out you actually think that it wasnt my point

On August 17 2012 04:33 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:28 FairForever wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:26 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:23 zefreak wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:21 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:12 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:03 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
On August 17 2012 04:01 CosmicSpiral wrote:
On August 17 2012 03:59 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
[quote]
or not
so how much did you bet on him for 3 times the money


I bet $600 and made a nice profit. ^^

thats not how you profit. you profit from making good bets


And I make 65% correct bets silly. When you actually understands what constitutes a "favorite", it's easy to bet on this scene.

lol
yeah youre a profitable better mentioning a stat that says nothing. you know that all odds between players arent given at 2 times the money each right? how many bets have you made?
yes its all about understanding what constitutes a favourite to be profitable. could you tell me more about what constitutes a favourite? what were the odds in that match for example?


I have made 1912 career bets, getting 1191 bets correct. During the IEM group stages I have made 23 correct bets out of 29, only skipping Nestea vs Violet. The only mistake I made was predicting Inori to advance in the 2nd-3rd spot.

Personally I use a 15-category heuristic model of talent evaluation in conjunction with recent results, recent alterations to said model, tournament priority, situational experience, and the influence of inside information. Prestige and reputation are largely irrelevant unless they reflect said factors in action.


I think his point was that most bets are not offered at 1:1 odds.


Well, no shit.


His point then is still valid.

I could bet on Federer every match, win 80% of the time, and potentially be losing money.


And where does this hypothetical scenario ever fit into the conversation? He started an argument with someone else over a casting complaint, not the handicap on a website like Pinnacle Sports. Then I stated that I bet on Nerchio, he stated that the decision was not a smart one, and I disagreed.

probably fits into where you bragged about making 65% "correct" bets and how nonsense that statement is

On August 17 2012 05:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
try reading what i said again


I am correct for the majority of my bets, and make a good ROI off of them. That's all there is to say.

what there is to say is that your statement was nonsense

On August 17 2012 05:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
we were talking about betting, what is this about?


Admitting a mistake in my betting on this particular event.

you didnt bet that innori would come in 2-3
and thats not how a mistake is judged

On August 17 2012 05:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
how are they relevant at all and when are they ever relevant aside for opponents playing differently because of it


As the WCS is demonstrating, reputation alone can cause opponents to straight-up lose and make dumb mistakes.

proof?

On August 17 2012 05:05 CosmicSpiral wrote:But most betting odds are directly based on reputation, which I bothered to bring it up in the first place.

they are based on how likely someone judges a player to win is
NexUmbra
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Scotland3776 Posts
August 16 2012 22:49 GMT
#3744
On August 17 2012 05:28 Dexington wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 05:27 KalWarkov wrote:
On August 17 2012 05:20 siii wrote:
A foreign terran past group stage? :D


well, almost 2, demuslim was pretty close and thorzain wasnt even there! :D


If Demuslim had won that super close game 3 against SortOf, he'd be through and SortOf wouldn't.


He was so close to winning that game you can sort of say that he is there.
Life has won two GSLs and a Blizzard Cup. NOT three GSLs.
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
August 16 2012 23:53 GMT
#3745
Sweet lord, Group A was really a close knife-fight to the death. I don't think I've seen many group stage result this close :\
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
CosmicSpiral
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States15275 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-17 01:19:01
August 17 2012 01:02 GMT
#3746
On August 17 2012 07:38 fakgfdgfdh wrote:

lol, how could that possibly not be my point, thats exactly what i said, that you made a useless comment that said nothing. then you actually repeated it. and now i find out you actually think that it wasnt my point


A useless comment in response to a useless point that I already know very well. The real question is, why did you assume that I didn't know that odds can be different for different players (WOW WHAT A DISCOVERY) in the first place?

Any betting man worth his salt knows that prediction rate is directly correlated with ROI, even if odds vary wildly from an ideal 1:1 (and that includes vigorish too). It is almost impossible to lose money with a 65% prediction rate unless

A. You bet the same amount of money on every single bet and only bet on heavily favored players.
B. You consistently bet a disproportionately large amount of money on heavily favored players and small amounts on the underdogs.

On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
you didnt bet that innori would come in 2-3
and thats not how a mistake is judged


I bet that Nerchio, ForGG, and Inori would advance past the bracket. Since Inori did not advance past the bracket, I lost money. This is what ordinary people call a mistake.

On August 17 2012 07:38 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
what there is to say is that your statement was nonsense


I've already disproved your silly statement.

On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
proof?


"I felt like if I were playing against another GSL player, the pressure would have been lesser."
-Gumiho after Winners Round 1 match vs Soulkey

"There are many Kespa players in the group, and that makes me stressed."
- Puzzle after Winners Round 2 match

"KeSPA players have a lot more televised match experiences than GSL players. So I think they are better experts at performing for televised matches than us."
-Creator after Winners Round 2 match

"I don't know if I'm simple or what but I didn't think that way. For some reason I seem to be less nervous for my WCS games than my ProLeague games. I felt like I had nothing to lose from playing against people who were better to begin with but I'm playing against GSL players like this during the WCS with a calm mind."
- herO[join] after Losers Round 1 match

The game had a lot of shakes and turns. It seems that when KeSPA players go up against GSL players, the KeSPA players have the advantage. GSL players' burden of losing to KeSPA players is heavy so if it goes all the way to the third game, that burden gets even heavier. In my case, I was able to play peacefully so I think I was able to make a comeback.
- Jaedong after Losers Round 1 match

"Truth be told, it feels like the GSL players are playing worse than usual, rather than me being better than them. I'm even beating players that I never thought I would when I was watching their matches."
- Jaedong after Losers Round 2 match

On August 17 2012 07:38 fakgfdgfdh wrote:

they are based on how likely someone judges a player to win is


And most of the time said judgments are made from incomplete information. This makes upsets seem random when many of them are predictable.

Go ahead and keeping my jock over the imaginary deficiencies you see in me. That will only confirm your fraudulence to everyone who reads your posts. You talk big when you can criticize non-existent flaws you create on the spot, just like any person who isn't worth their salt in a straight conversation.
WriterWovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muß man schweigen.
IcedBacon
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada906 Posts
August 17 2012 01:48 GMT
#3747
Why is the sound soooooooo quiet
"I went Zerg because Artosis is a douchebag." -IdrA
AxionSteel
Profile Joined January 2011
United States7754 Posts
August 17 2012 04:36 GMT
#3748
Nestea will be coaching a KESPA team within a year IMO.
Lysanias
Profile Joined March 2011
Netherlands8351 Posts
August 17 2012 04:56 GMT
#3749
On August 17 2012 13:36 AxionSteel wrote:
Nestea will be coaching a KESPA team within a year IMO.


Team 8 and IM will join up called LG IM8 ! Nestea will coach the dong and Losira. MVP will form Baby into a "consistent" multitasking machine sc2 has not seen yet. Ah a man can dream
TsGBruzze
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Sweden1190 Posts
August 17 2012 14:02 GMT
#3750
Damn group À was close!
''you got to yolo things up to win''
fakgfdgfdh
Profile Joined May 2012
79 Posts
August 18 2012 04:08 GMT
#3751
On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:A useless comment in response to a useless point that I already know very well.

you said that you have 65% correct bets as if it would have any meaning, i correct you because your comment was stupid and useless. you made no appearence that you knew that.

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:The real question is, why did you assume that I didn't know that odds can be different for different players (WOW WHAT A DISCOVERY) in the first place?

i probably assumed that because of you barging in and seemingly making a bragging post about having 65% of bets going in (WOW WHAT A CHILD GENIUS)
On August 14 2012 03:24 CosmicSpiral wrote:
I am extremely jelly. I wish I had money to travel. -_-

or what do you think?

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:Any betting man worth his salt knows that prediction rate is directly correlated with ROI

all profitable betters tend to have his average bet be just about 2.0?
or youre someone who tends to weigh on one of the sides, be someone who mainly plays a type of bet with a low output such as handicaps, or play futures

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:even if odds vary wildly from an ideal 1:1 (and that includes vigorish too). It is almost impossible to lose money with a 65% prediction rate unless

A. You bet the same amount of money on every single bet and only bet on heavily favored players.

oh, you have to bet the same amount of money on every bet?

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:B. You consistently bet a disproportionately large amount of money on heavily favored players and small amounts on the underdogs.

how about the opposit?

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
you didnt bet that innori would come in 2-3
and thats not how a mistake is judged


I bet that Nerchio, ForGG, and Inori would advance past the bracket. Since Inori did not advance past the bracket, I lost money. This is what ordinary people call a mistake.

i thought we were talking about bookmaker bets here.
youre correct, thats what ordinary people call a mistake. thats not what a mistake is though

On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 17 2012 07:38 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
what there is to say is that your statement was nonsense


I've already disproved your silly statement.

where was that

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE][QUOTE]On August 17 2012 04:57 fakgfdgfdh wrote:
proof?[/QUOTE]

"I felt like if I were playing against another GSL player, the pressure would have been lesser."
-Gumiho after Winners Round 1 match vs Soulkey[/QUOTE]
he doesent say that reputation caused him to play worse. hes also a person having to interpret his play and compare in his head how he would have played otherwise and then makes an interview where hes allowed to say whatever he wants.
he doesent state the effect of the pressure

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE]"There are many Kespa players in the group, and that makes me stressed."
[/QUOTE]
he mentions nothing about reputation causing him to make mistakes and straight up lose

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE]"KeSPA players have a lot more televised match experiences than GSL players. So I think they are better experts at performing for televised matches than us."
-Creator after Winners Round 2 match[/QUOTE]
he mentions nothing about reputation causing him to make mistakes and straight up lose

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE]"I don't know if I'm simple or what but I didn't think that way. For some reason I seem to be less nervous for my WCS games than my ProLeague games. I felt like I had nothing to lose from playing against people who were better to begin with but I'm playing against GSL players like this during the WCS with a calm mind."[/QUOTE]
this is not even from the right side

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE]The game had a lot of shakes and turns. It seems that when KeSPA players go up against GSL players, the KeSPA players have the advantage. GSL players' burden of losing to KeSPA players is heavy so if it goes all the way to the third game, that burden gets even heavier. In my case, I was able to play peacefully so I think I was able to make a comeback.
[/QUOTE]
opinions of one game where one opponent thinks the other played below his average

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE][QUOTE]On August 17 2012 07:38 fakgfdgfdh wrote:

they are based on how likely someone judges a player to win is
[/QUOTE]

And most of the time said judgments are made from incomplete information. This makes upsets seem random when many of them are predictable.[/QUOTE]
the odds are based on how likely someone judges a player to win is, which in turn is based on an incredible amount of potential things, not "directly based on reputation"

[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 10:02 CosmicSpiral wrote:[QUOTE][QUOTE][B]Go ahead and keeping my jock over the imaginary deficiencies you see in me. That will only confirm your fraudulence to everyone who reads your posts. You talk big when you can criticize non-existent flaws you create on the spot, just like any person who isn't worth their salt in a straight conversation.[/QUOTE]
yeah youre completely defiency free. and look whos talking big with his fancy words, but you can only come up with false things for so long before you get called out. you think youre a hotshot better with 1900 bets. perhaps if you didnt have basic flaws in your betting theory, actually had a 30%roi, and made 1900 bets with it, you could afford a ticket to europe.

and what a nice forum this is, seen countless of posts less rude than this get banned, and i can only imagine how many other times youve done this
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