EPTWho will win the 2019 Global Finals? (Again!)
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TL.net Bot
TL.net129 Posts
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EndlessViolence
114 Posts
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Akio
Finland1838 Posts
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nojok
France15845 Posts
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Geo.Rion
7377 Posts
On October 31 2019 03:48 Akio wrote: That's a lot of Serral votes. Deservedly so I guess we must bring it down to 50%. Serral winning the title is always 50%. | ||
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QOGQOG
827 Posts
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paddyz
Ireland628 Posts
So despite there being 2 out of 8 protoss players, people think Protoss have a 2% chance to win the tournament, bleak times. | ||
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Drfilip
Sweden590 Posts
Aligulac says 89% win vs soO, with a 76% chance at facing Reynor in the semifinal. The finals has a 32% chance to be vs Maru, 27% chance vs Rogue, 25% vs Dark and 16% vs Classic. Just asking "who wins?" is an easy way to make it look like statistics says something it doesn't. This is an opinion piece, with a few hundred data points, asking for a specific scenario. I would be interested in a full on % per matchup, but the TL poll system is not really made for that. My percentage prediction is (leaving out losing scenarios): Serral 80% vs soO Reynor 60% vs Trap Rogue 55% vs Classic Dark 48% vs Maru Serral 55% vs Reynor Rogue 45% vs Maru Serral 60% vs Maru Fun sidenote: Aligulac predicts Dark>Maru and a Serral vs Rogue finals, but Maru is second most likely to win it all. | ||
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Dedraterllaerau
113 Posts
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shadow4723
87 Posts
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sugarmuffinpuff
Canada38 Posts
On October 31 2019 21:14 Drfilip wrote: This poll is really skewed towards favourites. I do not think there is a ~70% chance that Serral wins it all, but I think he is the most likely winner. Aligulac predicts a 52% win chance for Serral, supporting my belief. Aligulac says 89% win vs soO, with a 76% chance at facing Reynor in the semifinal. The finals has a 32% chance to be vs Maru, 27% chance vs Rogue, 25% vs Dark and 16% vs Classic. Just asking "who wins?" is an easy way to make it look like statistics says something it doesn't. This is an opinion piece, with a few hundred data points, asking for a specific scenario. I would be interested in a full on % per matchup, but the TL poll system is not really made for that. Exactly. People shouldn't mistake "70% of the community think Serral has the best chance to win" for "the community thinks Serral has a 70% chance of winning." | ||
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Morbidius
Brazil3449 Posts
1. Serral: The best player and he's certainly playing the best race, in a meta that favors the way he likes playing his race. Obvious favorite. 2. Maru: The best Terran, seems safe from the dreaded Protoss who ruined his tournament ambitions this year, and TvZ looks far better than PvZ. 3&4: The Korean Zergs, very distinct from each other and also very distinct from Serral, but a few good ZvZs could give either of them a big paycheck. 5. soO: soO is a very clutch player outside of finals, if he upsets Serral he can go all the way. Beating ''impossible'' oponents(before finals) is just what he does. 6. Reynor: Seems to struggle against Koreans and despite being the best Serral killer in the world, he still dies to Serral more often than he wins. 7&8: The old and the new Protoss hope, they certainly could extend their tournament life if they got Maru but this is looking like a Zerg affair, and all Zerg players here have beaten them comfortably in the last month. This seems like an easy tournament for Serral, only god mode Maru could mess this up in my opinion. | ||
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Obamarauder
697 Posts
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Weavel
Finland9221 Posts
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pitbulTweety
4 Posts
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KalmeCavia1011
1 Post
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
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narusensei22
31 Posts
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ProFalseIdol
70 Posts
On November 02 2019 16:24 narusensei22 wrote: now.. this is becoming bit awkward for foreign fans :/ Yeah, too much hype for Serral. And this has happened with Neeb before. And unlike Neeb, Serral has never won any tournament where qualifier is open to all. Now foreign fans point out Zerg is broken. Lols. All hype, no championships to back it up. | ||
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DanceSC
United States751 Posts
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narusensei22
31 Posts
On November 03 2019 03:06 ProFalseIdol wrote: Yeah, too much hype for Serral. And this has happened with Neeb before. And unlike Neeb, Serral has never won any tournament where qualifier is open to all. Now foreign fans point out Zerg is broken. Lols. All hype, no championships to back it up. Yep, and Tasteless who overhyped foreign players, and exaggerated very negatively about Koreans' reactions should've been feeling very awkward too xD. Dark won the Blizzcon 2019, and yes no Koreans actually hyped about Korean's victory. Koreans only care about quality of sc2 games no matter whoever wins. That's why there are a lot of Serral fans in Korea as well. It's been always foreigners feel very hyped whenever their players win over Koreans, and feel disappointed whenever their players lose to Koreans again. I almost feel like, Koreans: Care about saving sc2 Foreigners: Care about beating Koreans And whenever I hear Tasteless' emotional talk about Koreans in these days, I almost feel like he must had been very very angry that Koreans have been winning everything in starcraft for a while. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On November 03 2019 03:06 ProFalseIdol wrote: Yeah, too much hype for Serral. And this has happened with Neeb before. And unlike Neeb, Serral has never won any tournament where qualifier is open to all. Now foreign fans point out Zerg is broken. Lols. All hype, no championships to back it up. All words, no sense of reality to back it up. Serral does not need to be hyped, his results are enough to; comparing him with Neeb really shows you are pointless. Sc2's community has been whining like crazy that Zerg are op for months, what's your point? On November 03 2019 14:49 narusensei22 wrote: Tasteless who overhyped foreign players, and exaggerated very negatively about Koreans' reactions should've been feeling very awkward too xD. Dark won the Blizzcon 2019, and yes no Koreans actually hyped about Korean's victory. Koreans only care about quality of sc2 games no matter whoever wins. That's why there are a lot of Serral fans in Korea as well. It's been always foreigners feel very hyped whenever their players win over Koreans, and feel disappointed whenever their players lose to Koreans again. I almost feel like, Koreans: Care about saving sc2 Foreigners: Care about beating Koreans And whenever I hear Tasteless' emotional talk about Koreans in these days, I almost feel like he must had been very very angry that Koreans have been winning everything in starcraft for a while. Koreans care about saving sc2? We see that with the influx of new korean players and the large importance that's given to Sc2 in Korea as an esport. Nobody forced KeSpa out of Sc2, they did that to themselves. Sc2's audience is overwhelmingly non korean at the moment, and there are alot of non korean fans of korean players, even more diehard than koreans themselves. Beating koreans is beating the best and overcoming koreans means becoming the best, you really can't understand why people are so exciting about having a player like Serral who at worst is one of the strongest players in the world and at his apex overshadowed every single player on earth, korean or not? | ||
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ProFalseIdol
70 Posts
Hype apex for sure. Beating Koreans? Neeb has done it before, nothing special. And somehow this is not being remembered. The only difference is the extra hype due to his blizz win. Incredible yes, but not out of the ordinary. For a non-korean, indeed an achievement. If Serral continues to win tournaments (that includes 'the best'), sure. But what have we seen this year? Did he win any serious tournaments that includes the best players? | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On November 04 2019 23:00 ProFalseIdol wrote: What apex? A blizzcon with guaranteed half "full foreigners" who can't get past the group stages, a bunch of circuit wins playing the same "full foreigners", and a couple of show match victories. Hype apex for sure. Beating Koreans? Neeb has done it before, nothing special. And somehow this is not being remembered. The only difference is the extra hype due to his blizz win. Incredible yes, but not out of the ordinary. For a non-korean, indeed an achievement. If Serral continues to win tournaments (that includes 'the best'), sure. But what have we seen this year? Did he win any serious tournaments that includes the best players? Casually disregarding statistics because it fits your narrative is convenient, but totally out of place; if Serral's peak is just hype, peaks don't exist at all in Sc2. This obsession against tournaments having direct qualifiers is at least weird, I'll repeat a thousand of times that if you don't have the skill to defeat opponents of a certain level you just won't win, even if you get directly placed into the finals. There is less density of skilled opponents you have to go through, that's true, but we can use the same argument against nowadays Code S(look at the level of those qualifiers and of ro32) as opposed to Code S in the past, not to mention a consistent part of the best players in the world do not play in Code S right now, unlike what happened in HoTS. Neeb won KeSpa Cup as his first Premier tournament then proceeded to dominate WCS without having any notable success against koreans. He then reached the semifinals in Code S while being the second or third best foreigner in the world; very good for a non korean. Serral had the most dominating streak ever including the longest streak against(very strong) koreans, he did not lose a single offline match in more than 10 months(unprecedent for Sc2) and he won six consecutive straight Premier tournaments including three starring top koreans; that's a result any korean would dream of. After that, in 2019, Serral transitioned into one of the best players in the world, never going below ro8 in any of the tournaments he played, winning three Premier(one with top koreans) and one Major(including top koreans); an excellent year by any metric, closely second to Dark's. Compare this with Rogue's poor results after his 2017-2018 peak, for example. How biased do you have to be to not notice the difference between Serral and Neeb? | ||
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DomeGetta
480 Posts
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On November 06 2019 01:26 DomeGetta wrote: Lmao Xainon is falling apart boys leave him be for goodness sake..his dad let him down again. Lol, man. To be honest, Reynor offering a relatively poor showing in the Gran Finals let me down way more than Serral's colossal throw. This doesn't mean I am passively accepting outrageous anti-Serral posts like the ones ProFalseIdol made. | ||
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DrunkenJedi
Germany174 Posts
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ProFalseIdol
70 Posts
On November 04 2019 23:33 Xain0n wrote: Casually disregarding statistics because it fits your narrative is convenient, but totally out of place; if Serral's peak is just hype, peaks don't exist at all in Sc2. This obsession against tournaments having direct qualifiers is at least weird, I'll repeat a thousand of times that if you don't have the skill to defeat opponents of a certain level you just won't win, even if you get directly placed into the finals. There is less density of skilled opponents you have to go through, that's true, but we can use the same argument against nowadays Code S(look at the level of those qualifiers and of ro32) as opposed to Code S in the past, not to mention a consistent part of the best players in the world do not play in Code S right now, unlike what happened in HoTS. Neeb won KeSpa Cup as his first Premier tournament then proceeded to dominate WCS without having any notable success against koreans. He then reached the semifinals in Code S while being the second or third best foreigner in the world; very good for a non korean. Serral had the most dominating streak ever including the longest streak against(very strong) koreans, he did not lose a single offline match in more than 10 months(unprecedent for Sc2) and he won six consecutive straight Premier tournaments including three starring top koreans; that's a result any korean would dream of. After that, in 2019, Serral transitioned into one of the best players in the world, never going below ro8 in any of the tournaments he played, winning three Premier(one with top koreans) and one Major(including top koreans); an excellent year by any metric, closely second to Dark's. Compare this with Rogue's poor results after his 2017-2018 peak, for example. How biased do you have to be to not notice the difference between Serral and Neeb? This obsession for calling HomeStory Cup and GSL vs The world as "Premier" is weird. WCS as Premier? Facepalm. 10 months doesn't mean anything because he only played Koreans in 1 serious tournament, LOL! Otherwise, he's only played against circuits over and over. That's your apex. Beating foreigners who can't get into ro12 of IEM Katowice. Even with lag in the EU server online qualifiers, half of it is won by Koreans. I don't have a problem with people being excited about 1 non-Korean getting a taste of beating Koreans in 2 show matches and 1 premier. But I do have a problem with the statement that he overshadows all players korean or not. Overshadow because of fan hype, sure, but just that. That doesn't mean becoming the best. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On November 11 2019 20:18 ProFalseIdol wrote: This obsession for calling HomeStory Cup and GSL vs The world as "Premier" is weird. WCS as Premier? Facepalm. 10 months doesn't mean anything because he only played Koreans in 1 serious tournament, LOL! Otherwise, he's only played against circuits over and over. That's your apex. Beating foreigners who can't get into ro12 of IEM Katowice. Even with lag in the EU server online qualifiers, half of it is won by Koreans. I don't have a problem with people being excited about 1 non-Korean getting a taste of beating Koreans in 2 show matches and 1 premier. But I do have a problem with the statement that he overshadows all players korean or not. Overshadow because of fan hype, sure, but just that. That doesn't mean becoming the best. I think you really need to be reminded that you don't get to decide which tournaments are Premier; you may or may not like, but HSC whose prizepool reaches 20k are Premier, GSL vs The World is a Premier(not only, it also counts as a GSL tournament) and WCS circuits events are Premier without any doubt(deservingly so, especially of recent). Serral overshadowed any top korean in 2018(with the notable exception of Maru, who failed every time to reach the chance to confront Serral in the finals) because he beat them every time he faced them and he just did not lose any series. Oh, in 2019 after that Serral won two other "worthless tournaments" that had korean participation and, despite not being dominant, he showcased unprecedent consistency by placing ro8 at worst in every international tournaments(and he did so at the expense of koreans opponents, not to mention he did not lose to koreans at BlizzCon). Koreans don't qualify through Katowice's EU online qualifiers we are not in 2014 anymore, NA and EU players do instead; they qualify through NA and KR qualifiers. Katowice is indeed one tournament where foreigners generally underperform but their low presence doesn't address their skill level(that's high enough to regularly beat top koreans as it happens in many other tournament), but the fact that, at top level of skills, there still is a higher number of korean players. Discussing with Alice in koreanland who thinks GSL tournaments, Katowice and BlizzCon are the only Premier tournaments in existence is pointless; your arguments are consistent, their premises radically wrong. | ||
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