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VGhost
United States3616 Posts
On July 09 2011 07:51 Vortok wrote: Jangbi is 24-3? Holy shitballs. Since the beginning of May, yep. Now 26-4. ^_^ We'll see how the playoffs go over the weekend. Jangbi's easily the scariest player of the 4 teams competing right now - fortunately for Stars I think ZerO, Soulkey, Light should carry us through but I'm not counting on it just yet. | ||
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GolemMadness
Canada11044 Posts
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TwoToneTerran
United States8841 Posts
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ShadeR
Australia7535 Posts
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VGhost
United States3616 Posts
On July 09 2011 11:39 GolemMadness wrote: I don't understand why everyone just decided to count all the prelim games for Jangbi. I pretty much never see prelim games counted for anyone else, unless it's because someone got knocked out. Also, pretty sure that nobody would rather face Flash than Jangbi. Any time I'm counting up games, I count prelim games. After all, they are official games which are played, and are counted, and do matter: anyone who can't pass prelims isn't going to compete with the big boys. In this sense anyone counting streaks without including prelims - purely on games played terms, ignoring the league differences - is potentially not representing that whole picture. On the other hand, the reason prelims barely matter for PR (except in the case of failure, see: YongTaek) is simple as well. Due to the seeding in Starleagues good players are never facing the best players in prelims, and this is even more true in MST prelims (32 seeds) than OSL (16 seeds). So if I want to discuss Jangbi's record in toto, I say "26-4". And that gives a solid picture of the form he's been in. But if I'm discussing actual accomplishments - say, to justify a PR spot - I would talk about it differently. I'd say something like: "He's 9-2 in Proleague since May (over 80% winrate), passed OSL prelims and won his ODT group, passed MST prelims and won his MST group. His only losses are to Hydra, Jaedong (in a game that didn't matter), and a red-hot soO." Because of the existence of the 3-league system, that broken-down picture gives a more accurate total idea. Still, when counting only wins and losses, which does have its place, I really think prelim games should be included. So I tend to include them, except in two cases. The first, if I'm specifically arguing on someone else's terms. The second, if I'm comparing two players, one seeded and one who's been relegated to prelims. Obviously if I want to compare Jangbi and Jaedong, the fact that Jangbi won prelims is absolutely meaningless to that comparison because Jaedong's been a semifinalist at least for the last year pretty much whereas Jangbi is only now finally climbing back into legitimate "A class" position and for all we know could drop out of it again just as quickly with a bad series loss at some point to, say, Shine or Horang2 or something. | ||
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xXFireandIceXx
Canada4296 Posts
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Elroi
Sweden5599 Posts
On July 09 2011 10:07 VGhost wrote: Since the beginning of May, yep. Now 26-4. ^_^ We'll see how the playoffs go over the weekend. Jangbi's easily the scariest player of the 4 teams competing right now - fortunately for Stars I think ZerO, Soulkey, Light should carry us through but I'm not counting on it just yet. You value stats way too high imo. | ||
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ffreakk
Singapore2155 Posts
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vexyz
96 Posts
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Malinor
Germany4732 Posts
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WWJDD
India342 Posts
I hope STX doesn't crap out in the first round after denying us six possible games of JvF. KT might as well lose now and prevent Flash from destroying his hands trying to lug his outmatched teammates over the top. I don't see them getting past CJ, SKT or even Stars/Khan in the next round. Flash might as well save himself for individual leagues. | ||
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Mortality
United States4790 Posts
Look at it this way: in a standard format 16 man tourney it is mathematically impossible to achieve 80% wins without winning the whole damn show. However, it IS mathematically possible to climb up through OSL prelims and then fail to even qualify for OSL while achieving 80+% (not factoring any other leagues into the equation). And that's against WEAKER competition. Every season there are a few top 20 players who have to fight their way out of prelims, but most are usually seeded directly to ODT or OSL. To put it simply, counting prelim stats removes the meaning of the statistics. The difference in ability between SL competition and prelim competition is WORLDS APART. Results so far this month support Jangbi's position on the PR. I do not think he is favorite against Jaedong, Zero or Hydra in a series. Regarding Flash... I think with Flash his practice time is too limited to deal with the PL environment and that his stats in TvP have dipped makes sense when you consider he was playing Terrans and Zergs in MSL and later in OSL. If Flash was told "you're playing Jangbi in 5 minutes" it's hard to say how the match would go. We haven't really seen Jangbi face a strong TvPer recently, although with Flash injured, Fantasy sucking and Hiya slumping it's hard to say exactly who could be considered "strong" at TvP. (I saw someone calling Light's TvP strong the other day and I laughed. I like Light but come on, really?!) But give Flash two weeks notice and I see no reason to doubt that Flash would roll over Jangbi like nothing. Let's see reasons before we leap to conclusions... conclusions which are always influenced by feelings as a fan/anti-fan. Regarding Bisu... I think he belongs ahead of Jangbi in the ranking quite clearly. He's been playing the prettiest Starcraft of anyone lately (and I favor consistent dominance over sudden streaks). Although simply playing pretty Starcraft is meaningless without results. Bisu's problem is that he's one dimensional. Flash and Jaedong know how to mix it up. They know how to hit you in ways you don't expect and control the flow of a series. Bisu does the same thing every time: rely on superior multitasking to spread you out, which is a good strategy he is adept at using, but it is only one strategy and it is the only strategy Bisu shows. Which is why racking up PL wins without ever achieving individual league results is not enough to convince me that he's worth #1. | ||
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Crisium
United States1618 Posts
Not the lowest played games month ever, but still gonna make it tough. | ||
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Mortality
United States4790 Posts
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Xiphos
Canada7507 Posts
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Crisium
United States1618 Posts
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Lightwip
United States5497 Posts
On July 12 2011 04:56 Xiphos wrote: I personally believe that Stork will be back to PR rank next month after improving immensely in his gameplay. I still don't get how Stork manages to pick up his play in such short time. By putting his glasses back on. | ||
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Xiphos
Canada7507 Posts
-_- Come on, do you REALLY believe that? | ||
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ketomai
United States2789 Posts
Sure, Flash may be playing phenomenally, but from the perspective of someone who's only watched a few games, he's been dropping lots of proleague matches and has played poorly due to his wrist. There's really no attempt to disprove or at least give more reasons for me to disregard this viewpoint. I'm not suggesting you did not put any effort into the PR or that you are wrong, but to me, this was a poorly written PR at times. edit: It may be just how you write and how disorganized it seems, but still, like I said before, I have a hard time following your thought processes. | ||
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VGhost
United States3616 Posts
On July 12 2011 03:07 Mortality wrote: ...There are reasons we don't normally talk about prelim stats. Look at it this way: in a standard format 16 man tourney it is mathematically impossible to achieve 80% wins without winning the whole damn show. However, it IS mathematically possible to climb up through OSL prelims and then fail to even qualify for OSL while achieving 80+% (not factoring any other leagues into the equation). And that's against WEAKER competition. Every season there are a few top 20 players who have to fight their way out of prelims, but most are usually seeded directly to ODT or OSL. To put it simply, counting prelim stats removes the meaning of the statistics. The difference in ability between SL competition and prelim competition is WORLDS APART. No one disputes that the average "A class" player should smash the average prelim group. There's something like 150 players, total, active at the moment. If the MSL only seeds 32 (to the MST/MSL), the remainder of the top third should work through groups without much trouble. And this is true In fact: prelims usually end up putting players like BeSt and Light (or whoever's decent but did badly last time around) up against B-teamers and unknowns who very rarely, if at all, win games even off terrible players like Tossgirl or Perfectman. On the other hand, the line isn't that distinct, and "scrubs" do get into the MST/ODT, and even advance on a semi-regular basis. Run down the list of the current OSL groups. Most of the players are at least ordinarily very good "A class" players, but we've also got hyvaa, and Modesty's not just there but a seed. Then you've got thoroughly mediocre players like Hyuk, Shine, n.Die_soO, and even Killer's not that good. But they're there because it's not like the skill difference is insurmountable, either: Flash got himself knocked out of an MSL by 2nd-stringers Classic and Ssak. Kwanro made an MSL final. Oh, yeah, and Bisu - among other top players - lost in OSL prelims. A 16-0 record is impressive - in the abstract - even if the only thing the player did was win two prelim groups, and an 0-5 record is problematic even if it just means a player somehow managed to play consecutive games against Flash, Bisu, Jaedong, ZerO, and Sea. Of course, context is everything when interpreting the data. If Hydra's the first player* and Wooki's the second, Hydra might even move up on the PR and Wooki won't even - unless they were really good games - make CBNC. If Wooki's the first player and Hydra's the second, Wooki might (but probably won't, depending on his opponents) make CBNC, while Hydra will drop some but probably stays on the PR. But what I don't understand is the tendency to ignore parts of the data. These prelim games happen. They count. Obviously, they count differently than games in other competitions - like Proleague - or game in other rounds or SL play. But that's not a reason to not count them: even two apparently comparable results can "mean" very different things. RorO beating Bisu, for instance, is on an entirely different level, for both players, than ZerO beating Jangbi. The first is totally unexpected: the second would be the expected result even if Jangbi was playing near his peak, and in point of fact Jangbi went for a risky strategy that blew up in his face (which in turn means I worry less about that loss than if he had lost a standard PvT to, say, Really). (And if we want to get really fancy, the loss to RorO meant nothing to SKT, while the loss to ZerO played a critical roll in forcing a playoff series to a third day - but in the end Bisu and Jangbi both lost. Context's important, but it's also possible to drag in so much "context" you obscure the basic facts.) Sure: in the grand scheme of things Starleague prelims, like (American) football garbage time, tend to mean very little and become notable only in case of spectacular failure. But they don't mean nothing. If Bisu losing prelims is enough to seriously discredit his play - the way, say, losing an off-race showmatch isn't - then winning prelim games has to mean something, and winning them decisively means something too. If he has to play prelims, I expect Sea to go through 6-0 (or 8-0, etc.) or maybe drop 1 game at some point to a cute cheese, whereas even if, say, Juni manages to advance I expect him to have somehow scraped through 6-3 (or whatever). *Obviously I realize Hydra is liable to remain a dual seed for quite a while in reality, but this is hypothetical. | ||
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