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Fall ’09 MSL Offline Preliminaries
Welcome, welcome, welcome to the kickoff event of the Fall ’09 MSL. In just a few days, we will see the end of a grueling offseason, and begin fostering our high hopes for a brand new MSL. The new league commences with one of the most pivotal points in it for us as fans: the offline qualifiers. We will all be crossing our fingers for our favorite players to pass this trial so we can see them compete on the big stage.
This MSL’s offline qualifiers is split into 20 groups, 7 in the morning, 7 in the afternoon, and 6 in the evening, a veritable marathon of Starcraft to see who we’ll be seeing compete for the title this fall. For any who are unfamiliar with how the qualifiers work or how the MSL proceeds from here, read up on MBCGame's league in the Ultimate MSL FAQ.
Since the event is basically all day, tuning in is rather easy if streams are provided. Check the Ultimate VOD/Livestream thread for instructions on what set up is required to use some of the tools and resources for watching live, and check the official event thread as the time approaches for streamers/details.
Below is the schedule and matchups, along with a quick preview of each. GTR generously donated his predictions to this post for public scrutiny.
MORNING
Group 1
go.go vs 
yCh[z-zOne]Favian vs 
TosSLovehungry vs KillerRevival vs GanZiThe main competitors in this group are go.go, GanZi, and Killer. Killer, aside from having an absolutely incredible name, showed some good games in the Map Test, even stopping the GoSi[Flying] juggernaut. GanZi also showed a decent game against no-name Zerg n.Die.soO, but has otherwise been uninspiring. Go.go is the favorite, as he has actually won some games against decent opponents, but also lost games against bad opponents. This is a bad group, but I expect go.go has it in him to snatch a spot in this MSL.
My pick:
go.goGTR’s pick:
yCh[z-zOne]Group 2
HiyA vs KT.MGW)ProtossSpecial vs HaranPurple vs oDinLake[Shield] vs PusanExpect HiyA, and Pusan to be the main contenders in this group with the outside shot being oDin. Haran will be tied up with Special, and isn’t very good anyway, while HiyA, Pusan, and oDin have relative cakewalks. oDin struggles randomly and, while he put together an extremely impressive game against Iris in the Proleague playoffs, is not up to the solid opposition of either Pusan or HiyA. Pusan has a decent shot, but HiyA is more consistent.
My pick:
HiyAGTR’s pick:
HiyAGroup 3
firebathero vs maestroLuCifer vs HydraIsaC vs MVPJaewOo vs FireFistMaestro’s name alone damns him against the biggest name in the group, firebathero, but look to MVP, FireFist, or Lucifer also putting up a fight. Lucifer has a tough first game in Hydra, while FireFist, MVP, and firebathero should come out with wins in theirs easily. I expect firebathero to be on his game for this qualifier, and come out on top.
My pick:
firebatheroGTR’s pick:
FireFistGroup 4
NaDa vs HahaStats vs DoveClassic vs IrOnBritney vs ModestyNaDa, Stats, and Modesty are the only players with real shots in this group. IrOn is the darkhorse, but expect this group to come down to either NaDa or Modesty. Though I loathe to exclude NaDa, Modesty is definitely an improving Zerg with a lot of potential, and he should take the group, but NaDa is always NaDa, so there’s no telling for sure.
My pick:
ModestyGTR’s pick:
ModestyGroup 5
YellOw[ArnC] vs Wrathn.Die_soO vs fOruSmile vs ggaemoBy.Rage vs LastYarnc is to thank for making this an easy group to call. Last, fOru and ggaemo are the only others that are even recognizable names, and Last only for his absurdly long TvT against Sea. Ggaemo is a pushover, and so I expect this group to definitely be between Yarnc and Last. Yarnc’s signature matchup is his ZvT, and Last just got a bad draw with Yarnc in his group. As it stands, Yarnc is playing very good Starcraft, perhaps the best of his career, since we last saw him, at least, so this one should go to Yarnc.
My pick:
YellOw[ArnC]GTR’s pick:
YellOw[ArnC]Group 6
type-b vs RyungSpear vs SunyNeo.G_Soulkey vs yoOnGgMaN[Name] vs FrOzeanThis group belongs to type-b or FrOzean. Spear has been strangely good in preliminaries in the past, but luck only holds so long. I expect type-b here, as he usually performs quite well in Starleagues, and Frozean does not.
My pick:
type-bGTR's pick:
type-bGroup 7
great vs Melleagle vs yeOngJaeMoon vs BogusSomeday vs JustinThis group is most likely between Bogus, Justin, and great. Great is the favorite to win here, but Bogus showed some talent in his GOM games so it would be inadvisable to dismiss him here. Sadly for Justin, that’s not the case. He hasn’t looked particularly sharp, and I expect Bogus to have improved since those GOM games. In this case, I like Bogus over great, because I think Bogus plays smarter Starcraft and is looking to break out.
My pick:
BogusGTR’s pick:
greatAFTERNOON
Group 8
Really vs neo.g_zerOPeace vs BraveBByong vs SoOtHuNdeR vs HoeJJaReally, SoO, and HoeJJa make up the contenders for Group 8. SoO hasn’t played well except for GOM, and, against a Proleague regular like Really, he doesn’t stand much of a chance. HoeJJa could pull off the upset, but HoeJJa’s hook is that he is highly inconsistent. He will put on a brilliant display of Starcraft, and then be nothing but terrible for long stretches. HoeJJa won’t be able to keep a good streak going long enough to best Really, allowing Really to grab a spot this fall.
My pick:
ReallyGTR’s pick:
ReallyGroup 9
RorO vs GrapeClay vs M18MMong vs PerfectManMvPzerG vs CasyThis is one of the more recognizable groups this offline qualifier. RorO, M18M, Mong, PerfectMan, and Casy all participated in the last Proleague. Of these, Mong and M18M were the most impressive from among the non-regulars, though Mong was not until recently and failed in his only Proleague appearance against 815. Casy has an easy game in his best matchup against a no-name Zerg, while M18M shouldn’t be complacent against Clay, and Mong should trample PerfectMan. Despite Mong’s impressive Minor League record, I think, should he end up only in contention with RorO for the spot, will likely lose. RorO is not an impressive player, but he can play very well sometimes. If it is instead Casy fighting with RorO, I expect a toss up, so I’m going with my gut on this one.
My pick:
RorOGTR’s pick:
MongGroup 10
Lomo vs BYEhwan vs hOddukRock vs MIsOSay vs YellOwReality vs SaintDon’t expect any magic from YellOw, Rock, or Saint. I’m so very sad to say it, but Lomo has this one tied up.
My pick:
LomoGTR’s pick:
LomoGroup 11
SangHo vs BYETurN vs FenixCrazy-Hydra vs DarkElfjjonga vs aMeBasungsun vs NoticeSangHo is the favorite here, but it’s not going to be him. SangHo had a break out last Proleague, but he’s been woefully inconsistent since then, and, frankly, that’s exactly the kind of player that ambitious and talented youngsters unseat. This group is wide open, because I’m convinced SangHo is going to choke. Whoever steps up in this group can take it, including ACE’s DarkElf, but I don’t see him taking it. aMeBa sports a somewhat impressive Minor League record, Notice all-killed ACE and did fairly well at times in Proleague, and even TurN or Crazy-Hydra may have improved enough to step in and take this one. In a group that’s up for grabs, you have to go with your gut.
My pick:
NoticeGTR’s pick:
aMeBaGroup 12
GuemChi vs BYEJust vs DDONGShark vs herbSacsri vs PuMaParalyze vs MiracleA bunch of recognizable names populates this group, like Miracle, herb, Shark, GuemChi, and Sacsri. Only one of these players (GuemChi) has done anything worth noting (beat Bisu), and he looked fairly good toward the end of the last Proleague (going 8-2 to close out the season). Shark, herb, and Sacsri haven’t done anything remotely impressive, with Shark being recognizably mediocre, Sacsri having not done anything, and herb just has a bizarre/funny name. Miracle will pose GuemChi’s biggest challenge to take this group, as he’s beaten Luxury, Kwanro, and a couple of others. Miracle’s TvP, though, has been noticeably lacking, with his most impressive Protoss opponent who he’s vanquished being Shuttle. If GuemChi can make it to the deciding match, he should take the group decisively.
My pick:
GuemChiGTR’s pick:
MiracleGroup 13
July vs BYERex.IU vs YukiDongrae vs minguRarity vs SaiRRush vs TesterJuly, Dongrae, SaiR, and Tester should be the only names in contention here. Allow me to tell it like it is: SaiR is a bad player. Tester has been unimpressive throughout his career. Dongrae hasn’t played anybody resembling a challenge in a very, very long time. July has a Golden Mouse on his shelf. This one is open and shut.
My pick:
JulyGTR’s pick:
JulyGroup 14
Thezerg vs BYEWuk vs SungEunhan vs NeeLASuka-Jr vs MidasClouD vs 815Two young Zergs and two old Terrans are the standout names in this group. Midas and ClouD should struggle against 815, as the sometimes-good-oftentimes-decent 815 is not a pushover opponent. Thezerg will enjoy his bye, but it won’t mean much against 815’s superior ZvZ.
My pick:
815GTR’s pick:
815EVENING
Group 15
HoGiL vs BYEPrincess vs BubbleGosI[Flying] vs MajorSnow vs JunihOn_sin vs TempestNo progamer whose name is Princess or Bubble has a chance to take this group. No, the contenders here are HoGiL, who I will contend to the end is nothing but a mediocre Zerg, no matter who he’s beaten, Tempest, and GosI[Flying]. Yes, Major has played some games and yes, Juni and Snow have to. Here’s what you need to know: Major lost to HoGiL recently, and Juni lost to GosI[Flying], and Juni beat Tempest. Oh, and Snow isn’t good. I expect the clear and unequivocal winner to be GosI[Flying]. This guy has been an absolute beast lately, and HoGiL will go down to his very respectable PvZ.
My pick:
GosI[Flying]GTR’s pick:
GosI[Flying]Group 16
Jaehoon vs BYESse[kal] vs haitaiChavi vs FancyDevil vs DaezanGSharp vs GoRushThis group is wide open. Whenever a group is issuing Jaehoon a bye, there is no chance that that group is very talented. The focus here should definitely be on the bottom part, where Devil is looking to challenge an established, but struggling, DaezanG, and GoRush will look to qualify again after the last KesPA debacle. I expect GoRush to take his sharp game, and DaezanG I am convinced has a decent shot against Devil, though I still think GoRush would win in either case. If the ultimate match is GoRush and Jaehoon, I would expect Jaehoon to roll over.
My pick:
GoRushGTR’s pick:
GoRushGroup 17
Hyuk vs BYEDear vs LuckyTazza vs koalaherO[jOin] vs XellOsBee vs YoonJoongSome groups are just really tough to call. This is one of them. Tazza isn’t that bad, and will constitute Hyuk’s primary competition until he meets the winner of the bottom half, which will likely be Shuttle. XellOs should take down hero[jOin], and Shuttle should beat Bee, and if it comes to that, I expect Shuttle’s occasionally very good PvT to beat XellOs’ TvP. That having been said, Shuttle’s PvZ is less than impressive, and even worse for him, HyuK’s ZvP is looking rather good lately. This group will probably be HyuK’s, unless XellOs pulls an upset of Shuttle, in which case it’s up in the air, but I’d still call HyuK.
My pick:
HyukGTR’s pick:
HyukGroup 18
Shine vs BYEActually vs remembertiny vs ActionToSsGirL vs HakSooZerG[kaL] vs ReachToSsGirL loses to HakSoo, and if she doesn’t, then she loses to Reach. Now that we’re done with that, Action should emerge from the top half here, Reach from the bottom. HakSoo isn’t a bad player, necessarily, but his PvP is subpar, and Reach has been looking fairly good at ACE. After starting fairly hot last Proleague, Shine has been miserable since, so don’t expect him to get past Action, and if he does, Reach should still cut him down.
My pick:
ReachGTR’s pick:
ReachGroup 19
[spoiler]
keke vs BYEDream.t)Marine vs WizardBoxeR vs Trap45[Name] vs NbsFirebat vs HyuNI’m not the only guy saying this, so if it turns out to be wrong, throw your angry bricks through someone else’s window, but I’m calling BoxeR. It’s not fanboyism, because I hold no particular affection for Boxer or T1 outside of his symbolic nature. So why do I think he’s going to make it out? Because I think he can get through Trap. Trap should be his toughest opponent, as we’ve seen that Trap can play decent PvT. After that though, who is there to stop him? Keke? BoxeR beat a player with much better ZvT very recently in Yarnc. HyuN? Same story. Nbs should lose to HyuN, leaving a HyuN-BoxeR finish to this group. So, if all the stars are aligned just right, for the first time in a very long time, our MSL will get a dose of the Emperor.
My pick:
BoxeRGTR’s pick:
BoxeRGroup 20
Sea vs invadeGoZip vs BarracksSky[kaL] vs s2hwata vs BaByBaBy, Sea, and s2 should be the people competing for the last spot. As it stands, Sea is playing pretty well, and BaBy is not. Really, this group should be open and shut in favor of Sea. But something is holding me back, something that I’ve seen in s2’s games lately that makes me think that he’s not as bad as his initial (read: every game prior to the last month) results showed. Still, call me a coward, I’m taking the safe pick, and I’m happy with it, but I would not be surprised if s2 took the group.
My pick:
SeaGTR’s pick:
BaBySo there’s the preview and the picks as the new MSL begins in just a few days time. Whatever players qualify at the conclusion of this important event, expect exciting games and clutch performances from this brand new season. Prepare to celebrate, Starcraft fans, because soon, the offseason will be dead. Long live the offseason.
