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On July 30 2009 07:05 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 30 2009 07:02 L wrote:
Basically, if NKVD do not contact their targets as a rule, rebels finding rebels cannot safely talk to each other upon fear of being confirmed blue, while our NKVD are free to check for town aligned players. This also prevents ukranians from mass pming people with "lol i checked you". yes they can. Rebels will always talk to any blue they find. Hence, any NKVD dressed as blue will be contacted whether they want to or not. At this point if you assume everyone followed your rule SURE it confirms the Rebel as guilty BUT the Rebel always has the defense that he is also an undercover NKVD Agent and was contacted first. How do you find out who is the liar? Come on, THINK the entire scenario through and stop assuming everyone is dumb to the point they can't realize they have a simple alibi that fucks the town over.
easy, you ask for any information of both, then you lynch one and mafia kills the other, or you lynch both. is a 1:1 trade anyway, and it is good.
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Let me do some maths again///
We are 54, how many veterans we have? i would say around 5. If we have 5 NKVD that make 10 of 54 marked as veteran.
thats like 3 times they dt a townie, 2 times they dt a rebbel or a dt. That clearly lower the KP in about the same rate than if all NKVD put as vet but it doesnt keep the mafia to find each other. By the other hand the NKVD will be safe for a while, until 2 mafia join up, and then if any one of them made a vet RC before they will join and kill him. That will happen in about 3-4 days, the same rate than if they claim to be rebels. But this could lower the kp more... unless if they know NKVD are showing to be veterans they will hit them 2 night in a row, and kill them anyway in 3-4 days without losing KP. If they show to be veteran we would show about 54 HP from town when it is actually 49 counting veteran as 2. Is way more convenient to lower directly the KP than make them believe we have more HP than we actually have.
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On July 30 2009 10:49 Ace wrote:
The reason I'd never go with a landmine plan is because if the Mafia are any bit decent at persuasion and have solid timing there is no way it will work. What if the mafia wait until night time to contact each other? Plan is done.
so you trully believe you are a better player than any others? If they wait until night NKVD still have until day post to post/pm anything that knows until that time, we just need actives NKVD, but that stands for any plan.
And it wont be good if a confirmed NKVD screams out to the thread the townies he checked, mafia dont know mafia, so NKVD will be adding KP to mafia if says something like "Ace is townie and L is mafia, i am going to die tonight."
Maths are good for us, not only now, they will be good at each step of the game simply because we only know we are 54 of us and nothing else (52 after MountainDew/Foolishness episode? or they got replaced?)
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No, you are wrong. They can trust anyone they DT as townie before some mafia DT on him.
And is much more likely that if two mafias found each other the 2 of them are mafia or 1 is mafia and the other is NKVD.
Two NKVD could still wait for day post and count mafia KP, then they even could not be sure... anyway they wont roleclaim each other if both are NKVD, NKVD doesnt need to roleclaim to mafia, mafia needs to roleclaim to mafia.
And they can go undercover and still make that support group, they should be detecting until they get 2 townies and save the third detect for later.
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On July 30 2009 11:41 TranceStorm wrote:
How could the NKVD agents 'get a group of confirmed Townies under their wing to cover their ass by Day 3' while proving that they aren't mafia at the same time (to the townies of course)?
The townies support group doesnt need to know until NKVD is getting targeted. And if he is not undercover he will never know is going to die. The only way for them to know is being undercover and have contact with mafia -> landmine. Then they could PM all that he knows to the townies just before his death
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If a mafia detects him and start to ask him who has he killed. Then both are busted, and NKVD has to use his last dt and talk to confirmed townies only. The townies just wait and see the NKVD dead and confirm the information that way.\
edit: if they dont die, then the info is saved until the death of claimed NKVD
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i think both things are good, but still stick on disguising as rebel is better.
Anyway, the right call for NKVD should be one or the other, maybe could be a good thing to spread them in both cases.
Since i am still with insomnia and we have plenty of time i will go to my c++ world and try to make a better simulation of all this things. I have been programing automatons for a while, so i think i could get a good model before going to sleep.
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On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs? Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM.
WHen did we decided that??
half of the town dont think as you.
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if you recive a PM from a rebel bust him in a smart way... but i think rebels wont PM much, they will be scared of contact wrong people.
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On July 31 2009 03:18 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 03:08 coltrane wrote:On July 31 2009 02:53 Ace wrote:On July 31 2009 02:18 Last Romantic wrote:
Has there been any agreed-upon course of action for Armymen who receive Rebel PMs? Well since no NKVD Agent should be disguised as a Rebel you shouldn't be getting any PM. WHen did we decided that?? half of the town dont think as you. Well since I'm better at this game than 99% of the people playing and I have never ever been wrong I think most people should follow my advice.
what a prick
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On July 31 2009 03:36 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 03:34 StorrZerg wrote:ace if your mafia then we all dead woot woot go L  If I were Mafia would I repeatedly be making a case to save the NKVD Agents from certain doom Like I said, if I were Mafia I'd really, really want the NKVD Agents to disguise themselves as Rebels since it makes my job much easier.
You are SOOOO WRONG, its incredible, it is just the other way around, you are actually helping mafia with this.
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i know you are right, zato..
ok, english is not my native lenguage, i have it hard there, because i studied it many years ago.
Im not a humble person, I am honest and my words are just what i think. And humbleness... like it is not Ace attitud right now.
Whenever he tends to act like he is the only one to be listen i will tell him that he is wrong.
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Ok, look... my maths arent wrong. by now i have tryed thousands of simulations (its really easy, i have alredy wrote a town generator in c++) and with this rules killing random, lynching random the right balance is something like 10 mafia, 4 vets, 4 medics, 5 NKVD. Anything different will make some kind of imba game, of course could be on more on one role or in other, but if there are more than 12 mafia we are screwed, if they are less than 7 they are, and so on with any of those numbers.
When i changed the rc on NKVD to vets town wins 53% or so... while putting them on ukranian town wins 59% Now i am at work, i dont have my code here, but at night i can post numbers or the complete c++ code if any wants to check it.
I changed my vote to L, since i dont want Ace to be elected and i think most of you just follow the shiny glow of those who selfclaim them as vets.
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On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote:
I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle.
Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians).
Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own.
But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment.
Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case.
If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such.
Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use.
So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit).
And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge.
I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.-
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On July 31 2009 12:45 Railxp wrote:
COMRADE GENERAL CALLER DOES NO WRONG. It was their fault for looking like American capitalist pigs spies!
+1
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On July 31 2009 22:17 Shikyo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 31 2009 21:26 Sinensis wrote:On July 31 2009 19:09 Siefu wrote:On July 31 2009 09:13 coltrane wrote:On July 31 2009 07:14 Shikyo wrote:
I've thought about this a little. Posing as Veteran has the benefit of possible living longer. Also, if a NKVD checks another NKVD, he'd know it was a blue(I mean red) and could start talking to him and form a circle.
Posing as Ukrainians needs to have enough gains to overweight the innate losses. The obvious problem of course is that when a NKVD checks another NKVD, instead of being able to form any kind of a circle, it'll most likely lead to the death of both NKVD's. Although some people say that the risk is too small to consider, I'm... not sure. The chance is still there, and it'd be an extremely heavy blow to the town, and a waste of 2 days of lynches(Potentially like 18 kills max for the Ukrainians).
Now, besides this huge problem, the gains are: If an Ukrainian checks a NKVD posing as an Ukrainian, he contacts him and both get killed after the Ukrainian claims to be NKVD as well. But what if the Ukrainian doesn't contact him in that manner? What if he starts PMing him ordinarily to find out what role he might be? Or analyse posts? And if he's not convinced that he's not rebel, he might just hit someone else and avoid him? Furthermore, trading 1-to-1 townies to Ukrainians isn't a good idea. Ukrainians most likely have a huge KP in this game. Trading 1-1 is most likely not going to be enough unless they kill enough of their own.
But then again the Ukrainians couldn't properly form circles..... Sigh, which of these is better depends on who the Ukrainians are and their playing style and personality, pretty much. I don't think I can pick the plan that is better at this moment. Dont any one get it? We cant form any ring or whatever in any case. If a NKVD gets dt by anyone is MUCH MORE PROBABLE that he was DTed from an ukranian. Then NKVD posing as any they want cant trust any who pmed them about their cover. THats why we dont gain any posibility for NKVD to make a ring if they look like vets or any blue role. The advantage you describe is not such. Then, if the NKVD possing as Ukranian is not contacted, then he will live more and get all of his DTs into a good use. So the only advantege of get them as vets (to be able to form rings) isnt real. I say it again. They MUST go as ukranians. If you are a NKVD and dont believe me, then go as vet, is better than other things... but you are wasting a nice oportunity (and fun like shit). And, about the maths, i made an automaton program, is not based upon random things, is based in individual decisions of each virtual player. But, that i made it just for myself. Dont despite good math analisys, like in poker it could give us an edge. I would lynch ace cuz he is dividing the town... but i am voting for L, and really dont give a shit about first lynch.- Are you admitting you're a dirty rebel or was that just a slip? lol This is a good observation. When I was reading this it looked like the "we" meant the town, since town can't form circles because when a DT claims to any townie that he's a DT, it could have just been a rebel and hence town can't form circles since those DTs can't be trusted. So I think it wasn't a slip-up, you just read it wrong.
of course i meant that....
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On August 01 2009 06:00 Chezinu wrote:
Did anyone else hear about an American spy who was running down the streets yelling that a top secret bomb was going to be dropped on our town? He called the bomb...what was it? Bcraftstar2..or something like that. I think the spy's name was vradovic? Hopefully he was just trying to intimidate us into surrendering. I wouldn't want the half the town dieing because of this.
dadadadada i got a letter from my wife in the north, she told me something about a deadline an a public execution! I hate to be in the front right now...
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wow, so much to read...
Ok, its day, who will be lynched today?
Clazziquai based in Ace's informer?
If some NKVD has valid information there is no point on sending that to someone without rolechecking first. And Ace cant be checked. The two optios I think of: NKVD is not so smart; or Ace is the mystery informant.
Why not to lynch the informant? because if his information is good we could reserve RCs and use them as game progresses.
kuja and rebirth based in scara information
this is really weird... i am not sure about this, is too sudden. I say this needs a sort of verification, and one lynch is always a way to do that.
by now i am not sure SO i will abstain.
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Ace, suck me.... your organization sucks. I am so tired of your "i am better than ypu" shit. I will lynch you at first oportunity.
FUCK YOU
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On August 02 2009 06:14 Ace wrote:
I think RebirthofLegend should be our next suspect. Anyone questioning my motives at this point is obviously scum.
You are obiusly scum.
On August 02 2009 06:21 Ace wrote:
Well that would be a valid concern if I was scum, but since I'm not I have 0 care for their well being. Hell Lucas could be a DT too and I'd still have 0 use for him. After this Kuja rape fest is over, it's between him, ~Opz~, and that Chilean coffee bean clown for the next lynch.
suck it.
I trust L. Ace is doing nothing just dividing the town.
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EPT
