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On May 18 2009 21:47 wurm wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 21:27 Shikyo wrote:On May 18 2009 20:44 wurm wrote:On May 18 2009 17:10 The_Master wrote:
I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day. First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a random active person (who is more than likely a townie).
Yes, it is possible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as well. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do anything and dead blue role.
If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day. I think this is a bad idea. Yes we may hit a mafioso, but last game I played we voted for lynching an inactive we hit blue. A mad-hatter at that. I'm sure there will be some sort of inactivity from some of the players, but immediately going for them after not posting for one day is not the way to go. I say we watch for anything weird during the elections. Well, even if inactives might or might not be the first choice, if we don't ever hit the inactives the Mafia can easily just hide amongst them and have us running around after each other like headless chickens. "We might hit a blue" isn't really a good argument, there's always the chance. I just don't want them to be the first choice. I didn't say we never hit the inactives. At this point there will be some level of inactivity at the start and most of the players are first timers, I don't expect them to post immediately after a day post. Just because them being inactive isn't a reason to lynch them outright. Like I said, the best way to weed out the suspicious ones right now is how everybody acts during the elections.
Yeah, I agree. Lynching inactives should be for when we have no good information. However, the suspicions need to be quite strong in order to lynch an actively posting player. On town's side, they're always more valuable than inactives are. And during the first day, it's usually quite difficult to find out who exactly would be mafia. Although we can probably narrow it down slightly. For example, posting a lot early and discussing things actively reduces the chance of someone being mafia. I doubt they would be posting much yet, they need to somehow get organized first. Some mafia are most likely still asleep, and I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep.
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I think we should way a bit with discussing who to lynch until we have an idea of who is going into office. Because right now the most important thing is getting good and active (town) people into these positions, so they help us instead of work aganist us like Quatol did in the last game.
Mafia will most likely try to get someone into office, so i think for now we should be talking about the candidates and not the lynch. Plus we should have a better idea of who to lynch once more people have gotten involved in the discussion, and then we can decide how to do it.
Just quoting this for future reference as i think this its the best connection made so far, and no one seemed to notice it. Don't know if it is worth lynching anyone on though.
On May 18 2009 20:32 softer wrote:
But we have to start somewhere and get some discussion going. The wording "eerily crepuscular" stood out to me. The cat is a crepuscular animal, and Jayme has a picture of a cat thats definitely eerie in his profile.
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About the candidates? As far as I can see, there are only 2 candidates besides me, and no one has any votes yet. It's kind of interesting that no one has voted yet. I personally can't say anything about myself, but I don't like either of the other candidates' platforms as of yet.
I'm wondering why iLoveKTF is specifically requesting to be Mayor. What might his motives be for that?
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Mornin' guys. Just read through the first things that have appeared - interesting.
The title of the painting is "Red Dawn" for reference. The artist is Cathy Jamison, and she's currently in Atlanta. I dunno if this would mean much, I'm new to the game (I followed the last few games, but not hardcore), but I figured it would be worth mention among everything else that comes up.
For those like me who needed a definition for "crepuscular",
Wikipedia:
Crepuscular is a term used to describe some animals that are primarily active during twilight, that is at dawn and at dusk.
Usage of the word creep:
"Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer."
"The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife."
Possibly points to Zerg icons, as someone said.
Zerg Icon Users:
- Foolishness
- Jayme
- Crate
- Shikyo
- Wurm
- So no fek
- SugiuraMidori
- therapy
- teks
- bwdero
Erlend Loe & L
Teks you raise some suspicions here because you are a Loe fan, but there is truth in that afawk, Pyrry wouldn't know that. I think jimtudor is going a bit too far on the picture, but it's something... I dunno though.
Shikyo, I think going off of "I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep." is going to work here, because this is a new game. That leaves a lot of wild cards for us.
I won't vote for a mayor who is going to lynch an inactive because like someone else said, an mafia can just echo other people to stay alive, while we risk just killing ourselves. There are a lack of solid clues, but we still have some solid things working here. A couple people come up in multiple clue hits (Teks, Jayme) and depending on what others see come up, we might be able to actually nail one of these guys right off.
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Oh, by the way, I think that the clue analysis by softer is the best one we have thus far, although I still wouldn't bet anything on it. However, if we see some similiarities in day 2 or day 3 posts, we might have a reasonable suspect.
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On May 18 2009 22:36 EsbenPM wrote:
I think we should way a bit with discussing who to lynch until we have an idea of who is going into office. Because right now the most important thing is getting good and active (town) people into these positions, so they help us instead of work aganist us like Quatol did in the last game.
Mafia will most likely try to get someone into office, so i think for now we should be talking about the candidates and not the lynch. Plus we should have a better idea of who to lynch once more people have gotten involved in the discussion, and then we can decide how to do it.
I agree. I'd also think that the one(s) mafia nominates for office would be announced after they have had the chance to organize, but nothing is certain, except that they probably will, as you say, try to gain a spot in the office. I saw in the other mafia game going on that they were talking about rolechecking the losers of the election, as it would be a big chance that atleast one of them would be mafia.
I also agree with you that the important thing right now is to get the good cluecheckers and behavior analysists into a protected position in office, as we well need their skill later on. The problem is, though, that there are so many new people participating that it'll be hard to know who's good, but I guess this will be easier to tell the closer we get to the voting deadline.
About the first lynch it's most likely going to be a gamble anyway. It's impossible to be sure of anything based on the first clues as there could probably be drawn a line between anyone participating with something in day 1 story. The clues will prove useful later on for cross-checking and after our DT's have done some work, but for now.. it's hard to tell what the actual clues are. So we can either go for the one connected to the most valid clue (I guess we can talk more about the clues a bit later, when the voting gets going), or go for an inactive player, either way it's a gamble. Relying on a mafia to reveal himself during the election process and acting suspiciously.. Well I just don't see that happening, even in this noob friendly game, unless we have some outstanding analysts at work.
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My main problem with lynching an inactive is we're not going on anything whatsoever. If we lynch someone who is active but we think a day 1 clue might point to them, then at least if it fails to be red we can say we were going off of something. we're not just taking a complete stab in the dark.
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I do agree that mafia will most likely try and get someone in office though.
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On May 18 2009 23:13 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
Shikyo, I think going off of "I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep." is going to work here, because this is a new game. That leaves a lot of wild cards for us.
I won't vote for a mayor who is going to lynch an inactive because like someone else said, an mafia can just echo other people to stay alive, while we risk just killing ourselves. There are a lack of solid clues, but we still have some solid things working here. A couple people come up in multiple clue hits (Teks, Jayme) and depending on what others see come up, we might be able to actually nail one of these guys right off.
Especially since it's a newbie game, I believe that the players wouldn't want to screw the rest of the mafia over, and would indeed try to consult others instead of acting alone. Of course, they could post harmless posts, but I doubt they would post anything significant.
If we never lynch inactives, Mafia can just hide amongs them. And I don't mean the no-vote inactives, I mean the vote-and-post-an-one-liner-now-and-then inactives. If there are better targets, we'll go for them. However, if we have no suspects, lynching an inactive should be better than lynching an active townie.
About Jayme and Teks, even if it's still too early to say anything definite, Jayme might be the most suspicious thus far, although not enough for me to think he's definitely a mafia. Teks... it'd help to know if Pyrr knew how much he likes Erlend Loe.
Also, it's nice to see some quality posting. Seems like the Americans are starting to wake up.
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On May 18 2009 23:13 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
Erlend Loe & L
Teks you raise some suspicions here because you are a Loe fan, but there is truth in that afawk, Pyrry wouldn't know that. I think jimtudor is going a bit too far on the picture, but it's something... I dunno though.
I don't know how I should adress this without seeming desperate, but there is no way that Pyrr would know this about me at this point, but now that I've mentioned it it could of course show up in a later clue seeing how he can use post content in clues. Anyway, I still believe that the Erlend Loe thing was just a cute way to play with LTT's nick, first the user L in the other mafia game combined with the KHAN captain TT, then Loe's book L and Audi TT. I guess that's what he found when he googled L.. 
I'm also going to go ahead and talk about a clue that has been bogging me, although it's probably nothing:
Day 1 Story
LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
I find this wording to be a bit weird, and we are on a starcraft forum after all. So that got me thinking about players who have slumping teams/players related to them, might be a clue. This would be the following:
- iLoveKTF - KTF in nick and picture in profile
- clazziquai - Quote: #1 Sea.Really Fan
- vx70GTOJudgexv - Quote: Proudly Introduced as Entusman #25 - GO BERSERKER!!!!
- Ra.Xor.2 - Quote: #1 Flash Fan
- phelix - Quote: #1 Canata Fan
Out of these I guess Flash might be the top contender. Not saying this necessarily is a clue, just throwing it out there.
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Excessive clue analysis based on the clues of day 1 is never a good thing, and we should never lynch anyone based solely, or even primarily, on then. They're best used as support for other clues.
About the lynching of an inactive. It's not just a stab to the dark. First of all, it encourages players to be active. Second, an inactive townie would be useless anyway and enable Mafia to hide amongst them, as mentioned. Third, it forces the Mafia to come out and start posting more, possibly exposing themselves somewhat. We can't just let inactive people be. A missed lynch of an inactive makes the mafia come out and makes other players be more active. And an inactive townie never was useful in the first place.
And about lynching an active poster who some clues might point at, that we can only do by day 2 or 3. Day 1 clues are far too subtle to be able to make out anything off them alone. If we were to lynch someone based on them, it had better have some quite strong support by behavioral analysis, as well.
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On May 18 2009 20:32 softer wrote:
We can't really get strong suspicions off one days clues, and since most of us are new it's hard to get anything from behavior this early as well.
But we have to start somewhere and get some discussion going. The wording "eerily crepuscular" stood out to me. The cat is a crepuscular animal, and Jayme has a picture of a cat thats definitely eerie in his profile.
This might be nothing at all but if you google Jayme the first hit is babynames and his name means someone who supplants which means 1. To usurp the place of, especially through intrigue or underhanded tactics.
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A couple things guys. 1) day one clues are horrible to go on since we really have nothing to go on. we're just grasping at straws. Unless someone got off a balling role check or someone acts extremely suspicious, i don't think we're going to get anywhere with day 1 clue analysis. Also, rarely is there ever multiple clues in a single day that point to one person. so just heads up on that. In regards to killing inactives, inactives help the mafia because then they can hide behind them. I know this because in the other TL mafia games inactivity basically killed the town. Thus, they're just as bad as mafia. I'm not saying just target inactives but if we have to target someone, lets get them. Finally, with the whole what if we hit a blue, most blues aren't inactive because they feel like they have a role, it's usually the townies that are inactive. I just want to say, if you're a townie, don't be inactive! you are so vital to the town!
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Hmmm chaoser just said what I've been saying all along, and that's a good point about blues.
Everyone, more people should try to run for the office. Assuming there's one Mafia running for the office now, we'll only have one combination where a Mafia wouldn't be in the office. Another reason is that the posts for the election have been mostly lackluster, and I really would like to place my vote on someone.
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I'm also waiting to see more people running for office before I vote.
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Something I feel I should point out due to being Qatol's pawn... The decaf coffee bit is a long standing joke with the vets about decafchicken... so it wouldn't be a clue here as that person is not playing the game. Additionally this is related with the drumstick bit, as chicken drumsticks = legs (the dark meat). As these 'clues' are too easy to match with that person I wouldn't take them to note.
The suffrage of LTT due to blood loss and glass exploding seems to strike me as more of a clue worth noting. Secondly, as no one seems to have pointed it out and perhaps doesn't know, L is the main character in Death Note series, where a kid of a police chief can write any sort of death description down in a notebook and have it happen. Glass exploding inward seems to be something improbable short of magick or sound waves at the right frequency.. perhaps someone's profile would reflect this?
I also agree that the bit about the 'horn not heard in time' would reflect against someone's profile as it sounds like a metaphor or definition for something as well as pointing out how massively alone he was, perhaps even in a deserted street far from civilization. Possibly on a road trip.
As for the death of Pyrr, perhaps something that has to do with heights or a hotel/apartment building that would contain many floors and a balcony. Pushing people, creeping with a knife, and explosions(?) were what killed folks; so yes that gives at least three mafia clues overall.
P.S.
I am rushing out to drive to Tucson so I won't be back for 10 hours and am unable to look more into my suspicions about folks, but wanted to let everyone know that I won't be inactive and give at least some pointers along my thought lines.
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I'm going to go ahead and combine EsbenPM's clue find with my own, as I just realized that we may be on something here:
On May 18 2009 17:44 EsbenPM wrote:
LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time
-iLoveKTF has a picture of what appears to be soundwaves in his profile which could lead to this if its a clue.
On May 18 2009 23:33 teks wrote:Show nested quote +Day 1 Story
LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
I find this wording to be a bit weird, and we are on a starcraft forum after all. So that got me thinking about players who have slumping teams/players related to them, might be a clue. This would be the following: - iLoveKTF - KTF in nick and picture in profile
I don't want to be the one pointing fingers and screaming "lynch!" at this point, but I do want to nominate this for a clue check when time comes to it. The fact that these two clues were found in the same sentence, pointing to the same person, may be something we should think about, and atleast compare to the clues from day 2 when they come. Also keep in mind that this is a person running for office.
About the election, I too would like more people to run for office, to minimize the chances of electing a red.
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That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans.
@chaoser
Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways.
I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early.
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On May 19 2009 00:26 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Glass exploding inward seems to be something improbable short of magick or sound waves at the right frequency.. perhaps someone's profile would reflect this?
Nice catch. I guess you can add that to my previous post about iLoveKTF (who has a picture of sound waves in his profile).
I too would rather see an inactive person lynched than jumping to a conclusion based on day 1 clues, including my own theories. This does not, however, mean that we should stop analyzing them, as they will be nice to have when we need to cross check with the clues from day 2+.
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I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping, though... it might be a bit too far-fetched. But of course, we have to keep this stuff in mind some clues come up later that might relate to these. Still, day 1 clues are day 1 clues, so please don't draw any strange conclusions off them. + Show Spoiler [very minor Death Note spoilers] +L actually isn't the main character of Death Note; Light is. And he's not a police officer, but rather a righteous/religious school boy.
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EPT
