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On May 20 2009 10:45 Incognito wrote:
No but we do need solutions don't we? You seem to be content here fueling the fire and throwing the town into chaos...
Uh? What? go ahead, how have I thrown the town into chaos. If there's one person who knows EXACTLY whats going on and have spoken up about it - that would be me. You don't see me hear trying to come up with ideas that cause for the lynching of multiple people, none of which are even fully confirmed, all because you want to try and catch leads on a voting list - which doesn't fucking matter. Because the people you SHOULD be looking at are THE CANDIDATES THAT LOST THE ELECTION.
You thought I forgot huh? Yea like I said - I know EXACTLY whats going on. Don't try and steer the town to look at the people that voted for either of us because you DO NOT KNOW which of us is guilty yet so you'd be doing it fucking backwards by lynching us both. Hence when one of us pops up innocent and you forget about the simple fucking play of just looking at the candidates that lost the election like I said days ago then hey - maybe you'd stop coming up with dumb plans and just do THE SIMPLE FUCKING PLAY.
Now both of you can pull your heads out of your asses and stop these nonsense plans. I tried to be nice about it without stating the obvious but your both so delusional and stupid it's time to start shutting your shit down. Get fucking lost or go do something smarter with your time.
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well this is sweet, I am on page 38! See you all in 1-2 hours of post reading. But I figure to be safe, vote lynch Ace.
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On May 20 2009 10:46 Mynock wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 10:40 Incognito wrote:
Then vigi Ace tonight if Ver flips not town. You meant to say, vigi Ace if Ver flips Town?
I'm not making the assumption that just one is mafia. Nor do I think anyone should.
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I just want to know when voting ends.
I have to be up at 4AM EST tomorrow. I won't be back until 5PM EST. :/
Landscaping pff.
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On May 20 2009 10:44 Mynock wrote:Show nested quote +On May 20 2009 10:35 L wrote: I seem to be L's popular choice for lynch, Are you fucking retarded? Do you even read? VOTE ACE. if we don't VIG HIT HIM FOR THE LOVE OF GOD. Both people in office need to be killed so we can examine how the election went. EVERY game that a mafia is elected, he is ALWAYS supported by his friends. I don't even care if one or the other is innocent as long as BOTH die and we get the information we need. The FASTEST way to do this is to double and kill ace to prevent him from side pardoning during the lynch. If we lynch ver today and everyone agrees ace is mafia tomorrow, we're still fucked because we're dealing with the same pardoner + double lynch scenario. Actually, to be completely fair (and to diverge a little from the rambling style for a while) I understand what you're saying here. I just feel you're working on a very basic, very mechanical level. You don't count in behaviour at all, or rather, do it in a very convoluted way, as if it's something mystical and unexplainable... It's simple stuff actually, and it manifests in small, simple clues. Just as an example: as soon as Ver made that accusatory post and Ace and I rebutted that, Ver goes on saying "oh OK, I liked Ace's response, but Mynock, humm, he's fishy fishy". Why? To set Ace up vs me and vice-versa. Why would he do that if he was innocent? Because he made a miscalculation about me? Nuh-uh, I'm not suspicious on THAT level, and I know it. Ver knows it too. He wouldn't make such a mistake. Simple stuff, but it's subtle. And Town misses that, and Ver knows THAT. Oh, how well he does, he pulled the same stunts last game. If he's not Mafia, I'll have to say this is the worst Townie play I've ever seen from Ver. Period. I'll also admit I suck at reading people. So go on, prove me wrong...
Most of the behavioral analysis which led me to suspect all three members of the 'three musketeers' has been posted during day 1. Its only been adding fuel on the fire since then.
I've always believed there's the potential for multiple mafia playing the other members of the candidate ring.
Either way, since people can't put a finger on a single target and exonerate the other, the best method for town to proceed is to take out both. If you were mafia and saw this, what would you do?
Mechanical works. The only way this plan fails to produce a sizable bonus for the town is if both ver AND ace are innocent and pretty much no one believes that at this point.
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Sydney2287 Posts
Can the voters please distribute their votes between Ver and Ace. All the people voting dreamflower, plexa, malongo etc are just hurting the town because it spreads our votes. Allowing mafia to more easily control the vote. I'm not going to force anyone to vote one way or the other, but I'd strongly suggest reading the arguments against Ver, as they are considerably stronger than those against Ace (In fact the 'best' argument we've seen against Ace is that it makes more sense mechanically, but that's a separate issue and I won't get into it in this post).
So town, our job today is to pick which candidate we think is the mafia candidate, and remove him.
Please distribute your votes between Ace or Ver. Doing anything else hurts the town at this stage.
I strongly suggest you vote Ver for reasons I've posted earlier in the thread, but I'll leave that to your discretion.
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Sydney2287 Posts
Shit I forgot about the edit rule again :S
I just changed the format to make my bolded bit stick out more.
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Sydney2287 Posts
Also, yes, it's quite possible that they're both mafia. We can deal with that at night, for now, just kill one, as one of them is most definitely mafia (I'm going with Ver)
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can someone say why its definitive that one is mafia? I don't trust either, which is why I didnt vote for them, but I missed what changed between people trusting them and voting them in and people saying they must be mafia.
Why did people trust them in the first place? Why dont they trust them now?
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If we don't kill the one that can FUCK our double lynch, we lose a day.
Maybe you don't get that: Its THREE OF US DEAD.
There is NO reason to vote Ver over Ace unless you're 100% certain Ace is innocent, and no one is.
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On May 20 2009 11:29 Showtime! wrote:
I just want to know when voting ends.
I have to be up at 4AM EST tomorrow. I won't be back until 5PM EST. :/
Landscaping pff.
At least you have a job. I would kill just for a landscaping job
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Sydney2287 Posts
L, I agree that from a purely analytical standpoint, we stand to gain a fuckload of information by lynching both Ace and Ver. However I think something can be said for not wasting kp on players which you think are innocent. I am not sure on Ace's innocence, I am very sure on Ver's lack of innocence. On top of this, Ace is practically begging the town to lynch Ver. By lynching Ver first we gain insights into Ace's activity which we can use to further solidify our thoughts on Ace's innocence/lack thereof.
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Sydney2287 Posts
L, that only works if we're killing Ace with our double lynch.
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Sydney2287 Posts
On May 20 2009 12:09 fusionsdf wrote:
can someone say why its definitive that one is mafia? I don't trust either, which is why I didnt vote for them, but I missed what changed between people trusting them and voting them in and people saying they must be mafia.
Why did people trust them in the first place? Why dont they trust them now?
I made a post earlier (5 or 6 pages back I believe) about my reasons regarding Ver. Turns out point 2 of 3 was based on a misreading of a quote, however 1 and 3 were both strong on their own. In short:
Ver is posting like he was last game (as mafia)
he promised activity/planning/usefulness and he's bringing none of it.
He keeps saying he has a lot to say and says nothing.
He was incredibly dodgy on the infinity21 lynch. He asked town about 3 people, asked Ace about 2 people, both (I think) of which were part of the 3 people, and then picked infinity21 who was both outside the 3-4 people up for discussion and according to Ver's own posts, nowhere near as suspicious as some other people he has been calling out (Read: Mynock).
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If both are mafia, it makes perfect sense that they would throw down red herrings the moment both of those lynches turned up BG.
If we don't kill Ace, we lose a wealth of information and CANNOT use our double lynches asap.
Again, 100% assurance Ace is innocent or your actions hurt the town. We have roughly the same amount of contradicting positions and circumstantial evidence linking Ver and Ace to being mafia. Ver slightly tops out Ace on suspicion in my mind because of the clue analysis, but Ace makes up for that by having a far sketchier voting record and supporters that are far more likely to be mafia.
Since the 'suspicion' is relatively high over both of them, DEAL WITH BOTH IN THE BEST MANNER.
Mechanical or not, its the BEST path forward. Take it.
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Ace suggesting to lynch ver tells us absolutely nothing.
Case 1:
Ace is innocent, Ver is mafia
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is right
Case 2:
Ace is innocent, Ver is innocent
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong
Case 3:
Ace is mafia, Ver is mafia
-Mafia ploy. Ver is lynched, town automatically assumes Ace is innocent, mafia can now abuse that trust.
Case 4:
Ace is mafia, Ver is innocent
-Ace says he was convinced. You have no way to tell this isn't case 2 until Ace is lynched. 2 days wasted, loss of all elected officials results.
Ace is a very good player, particularily at occlumency (for someone who never read the books, I really enjoyed the movies). He's not going to be easy to read whether mafia or town, and hes not going to allow himself to be backed into a corner where his play is predicitve (when he is mafia for obvious reasons, when he is innocent for the sake of future games)
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong
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On May 20 2009 12:13 Bockit wrote:
L, that only works if we're killing Ace with our double lynch.
Ace should never get hit during a double lynch because of pardoner status.
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Sydney2287 Posts
L:
We lynch Ver tonight.
We vigi someone tonight based on what we learn from ver's death.
Mafia kp is down to 2.
A likely scenario, not definite but nowhere near impossible.
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On May 20 2009 12:18 fusionsdf wrote:
Ace suggesting to lynch ver tells us absolutely nothing.
Case 1:
Ace is innocent, Ver is mafia
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is right
Case 2:
Ace is innocent, Ver is innocent
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong
Case 3:
Ace is mafia, Ver is mafia
-Mafia ploy. Ver is lynched, town automatically assumes Ace is innocent, mafia can now abuse that trust.
Case 4:
Ace is mafia, Ver is innocent
-Ace says he was convinced. You have no way to tell this isn't case 2 until Ace is lynched. 2 days wasted, loss of all elected officials results.
Ace is a very good player, particularily at occlumency (for someone who never read the books, I really enjoyed the movies). He's not going to be easy to read whether mafia or town, and hes not going to allow himself to be backed into a corner where his play is predicitve (when he is mafia for obvious reasons, when he is innocent for the sake of future games)
-Ace suspects ver naturally and is wrong
Ding ding ding. Someone understands how to analyze incentives in a game of mafia.
Ace does not get off the hook REGARDLESS of how Ver flips, which is why we need to take him out FIRST, so that our corresponding kill on Ver can take place at double lynch maximum speed.
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Sydney2287 Posts
If he pardon's someone when we're double lynching then we simply kill them both the next day. Mafia only have 6 members They cannot afford to lose 2 so easily.
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EPT
