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I personally prefer the less info, the better route. Thus vigi's stay silent. I mean... 4 medics alive to protect 47 or so people (I'm including medics in that total). If medic randomly picked targets to protect, and 3 vigi's randomly picked from 47 or so + 9 mafia = 56 people, someone wanna calculate the chance of this overlap?
I'd imagine the probability of that being not too bad.
Basically, by publicly claiming, mafia can either kill you off and deal with one less potential townie or mind-game everyone to kingdom come if the hit you claim is green.
For those arguing in favor of publicly claim, is wasting medic protections/stupid DTs' rolechecks that important when you are giving Mafia just more info? If you answer yes, I need to come up with a better argument... I type too slow T_T: Ace already has a mega post that I haven't gotten to read yet.
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Actually, the correct question is: Is preventing the waste of medic prots/DT checks that important?
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United States2186 Posts
On March 20 2009 11:30 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 10:09 dreamflower wrote:By the way, I feel I should point this out. It says in the roles post: On March 11 2009 23:03 Chuiu wrote:
A special note on roles: All roles must be used at night and only the Detective clue check ability and Medic ability may be used on Day 1. Roles may be declared before night but they will not happen until night. Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else. I'm pretty sure all the medics know that they should be using their abilities tonight to protect valuable players. However, I'd like to remind detectives that they should use their clue-check ability. Specifically, they should be asking if specific sentences in the Day One posts are clues. At least this should help us figure out how clues are described in this game and give us a start for clue analysis. Since everyone is just going in circles on a topic which DOES NOT MATTER right now, I'm going to point out just about the only recent post about something which DOES matter. Since we have established that day 1 clues are hard to find and interpret but DTs HAVE to use a cluecheck, I would like to point out that this is a very good idea.
Yeah agreed. I think that efforts should be spent first of all on finding clues for DTs to check, because DTs who have made these kinds of choices on their own in the past were terrible at it. Like 100% wrong. A group discussion might bring more information out and maybe have a good
Remember, what should the DT's clue check and against whom? We should have a variety of choices because they have to use it now.
And finally....the only reason for vigi's revealing themselves is to avoid overlapping vigi hits when there are at least 2 suspects that vigis should be hitting. Let's save this discussion until that actually happens. Can we please drop this either way it's getting nowhere.
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No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen.
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On March 20 2009 11:05 semioldguy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 10:59 redtooth wrote:On March 20 2009 10:52 semioldguy wrote:
(2) Vigis and Medics likely won't collide, but there are other things to gain (or not to lose) by Vigis calling their targets beforehand. Like what. We prove that one guy is innocent. However, that man isn't even blue anymore because he used his power and now has all the use of a green towny. He's not useful to start a town circle around because he only has 1 life. I haven't thought too deep about it and may be missing a fragment of a grand plan but seriously doesn't look like there's much to gain with all this trouble. Like several things I and Qatol have mentioned already. (aka this has all been stated so if you've actually been reading the thread you can skip this post) We don't want Vigi kills (1) Overlapping with each other or (2) Overlapping with DT role-checks. Sure Vigis will get their hit back, but if they die that night then their hit was wasted when they might have used it somewhere else. If we assume all Vigis call their targets, then any time one calls a target and more innocents die than mafia have kill power we know he is innocent. If it was a Mafia trying to roleclaim the only way he could appear as a Vigilante was if another vigilante was stupid and decided to kill someone without saying anything. If the Vigi calls out and there wasnt and extra dead body, we lose nothing, but have effectively lessened the mafia killpower by one for the night. How is that bad?
If this is your main concern, throw that into my calculation. There is always a slight chance that... x2 vigis hit a target that's being protected by a medic. But vigi overlap, if you want a 100% sure-fire way then, yeah the argument for vigi role claim is pretty much there. also, you need to look at the aftermath of the night. Sure you get the bonus of nothing overlapped, but now you deal with KP adjustments, etc. Vigi can claim their hit was refunded, but then everything happens all over again, you have a Vigi with a wasted power until he chooses a red target. By then, that vigi should be dead anyway.
Ignore the DT rolecheck overlap. DTs should/will be smart we have to assume.
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United States7488 Posts
You clearly are not reading my posts very carefully. I am not suggesting this for the purpose of confirming a Vigilante.
You STILL haven't said what the town has to LOSE from a Vigilante calling out his hit BEFORE it happens.
What does this all mean? All veteran players are sitting ducks. It's impossible to protect everyone night 1 and there's a very high chance a blue or two is going to die on the first night. Sheriff can't do anything about it and the Mafia don't have to worry about Vigis yet.
Why in the fuck would a vigilante waste his hit so early? I am in no way suggesting we even protect the Vigis that call out hits, that's nowhere near the reasons I have been stating.
Now do you see the problem? If we reveal Vigilantes the Mafia get the added bonus of not only sniping vets but cherry picking how to counteract the Vigilante.
How do they counteract a Vigilante exactly? How can it benefit the Mafia to know who a vigilante is after he has used up his ability? Please provide some sort of scenario where the town is disadvantaged and/or the mafia is advantaged
The second set of clues yet isn't up and if you throw Vigis in there it's just going to be a mess. There isn't going to be any direction in searching for clues because you don't even have enough clues yet to compare what you might get yet. It's pointless.
But by the time Vigis can kill... there will be more clues. They can't even kill the first night and it is mentioned in Chuiu's post if you read it
They do NOT need to be known. Period.
Secondly let's assume your second situation happened. If the KP is 6 and there are 7 deaths how does that prove the Vigi that claimed hit the target? It doesnt because you don't know if any other vigis acted either.
Unless they are under the understanding that all Vigis who act need to name their target before it happens. This also prevents Vigis overlapping. Sure they get it back but they could die before they get to use their next hit which is essentially the same as them not using their hit at all and just dying.
Or what happens in the case where there are only 6 death and innocent dies that the Vigi called out but you didn't know that a medic stopped a mafia hit? You don't. You just said it yourself - you stopped 1 Mafia KP to put suspicion on a potential green, except you didn't stop the Mafia KP.
Then someone would end up coming forward saying they were protected. If it's not true then either one or the other or both are lying and we now have a suspect in a group of two. Seems pretty good to me. We don't trust either of them regardless, we wouldn't have trusted them before the incident either.
If an innocent dies during the night the Mafia would gladly have it come from the Vigi because really, who cares how it happened? An innocent died. You've just given the Mafia the advantage of added confusion in the town now having to figure out if this guy is legit.
Then we just don't worry about it. If all Vigis hold themselves to the same standard there is much less possible confusion than you suggest. We don't trust him regardless, but that doesn;t mean we have to waste time on him, just let that person go. Either he is innocent and letting him be doesn't hurt us or he is Mafia faking it and before very long it should be apparent that the numbers don't add up (it's not like it's a very large number) and then we have a certain mafia on a small list with a minimum 25% shot at getting him if it was random (which it isn't) compared to the current 18% if we just chose at random from the entire group. It's not like a Vigi who doesn't call a target is immune to killing someone innocent and then how are we any better off in that situation?
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I'm done debating the vigi issue. I'm not even sure what is best at this point and im sure the vigis are hella confused. The only way we could have a plan is if it is so good there is consensus among innocent players. If we are so divided about this, chances are the vigis are as well so no plan can happen because there isn't a popular mandate for it. This is legitimately complicated and I doubt it is mafia trying to sway things one way or the other, it really is something we can't come to agree on so by default vigis should probably be quiet, medics should be careful not to protect legitimate vigi targets, DTs will have to use their judgement in not wasting checks. If a vigi kills a red they can decide afterward whether they want to lay low or claim.
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Okay, gonna stop posting about vigi's.
Caller posted some clue analysis right after the morning post was released. Forgot to mention his name in my earlier posts.
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United States7488 Posts
On March 20 2009 11:44 JL13 wrote:
Vigi can claim their hit was refunded, but then everything happens all over again, you have a Vigi with a wasted power until he chooses a red target. By then, that vigi should be dead anyway.
No... a Vigi can NEVER claim that their hit was refunded by this method. That's also part of the point to this.
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On March 20 2009 11:46 JL13 wrote:
Okay, gonna stop posting about vigi's.
Caller posted some clue analysis right after the morning post was released. Forgot to mention his name in my earlier posts.
Again, we should NOT be trying to verify clue analysis. Based on past mafia games and the assumption that chuiu isn't giving us free mafiosos, we won't get anywhere with that. Let's just set up a list of things we think MIGHT be clues and get THOSE checked.
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United States7488 Posts
It's actually extremely simple and I don't know whats so difficult to understand or why people keep complicating it and making false assumptions that aren't related to the suggestion.
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United States2186 Posts
On March 20 2009 11:44 Qatol wrote:
No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen.
You're right for some reason I thought we didn't include that this game.
I need to read the first page more thoroughly -_-
This isn't my specialty and I have other things to prepare so I'll let the people eager do this point out clearly the important potential clue sentences DTs should ask about.
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United States7488 Posts
On March 20 2009 11:33 Bockit wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 10:49 Qatol wrote:
Let me be clear on this, since everyone seems more confused about medics protecting the target. That is not the reasoning here. The reason I want hits called out is to avoid DTs rolechecking the targets and to avoid vigis stacking hits. The second being by far the more pressing issue. Addressing this, and everyone worried about mafia canceling out a vigi hit: Show nested quote +
Vigilante - You may, only once during the game, kill a player of your choice during the night. A clue will be left behind just like a mafia killing pointing to you. If your hit overlaps with mafia or another vigilante then I will cancel it and they will kill the person instead. [b]In both cases you will not know who caused your hit to be canceled and you will be able to use your hit anytime after that during the game.[b]
It doesn't matter if you call your hit out, if your target is mafia, they can't kill their own guy, your hit will go through. If your target is innocent, then if mafia kill it first, your hit is refunded. If a vigi also targets the player, one of the two hits is refunded. I think all this discussion on the topic is pointless, there is so little to be gained from claiming your hits before hitting them player as a vigi and about as little to be gained by not claiming. I say we leave it to the vigis and focus on something a little more relevant, like, I don't know, clue/behaviour analysis. We have nearly 30 pages of posts to work with already here.
Writeups in morning post may not happen in the same order people PM me them but actions will.
Which means if the vigilante does it first... it happens. Period.
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I completely agree with Qatol/SoG on their pressing matter:
1) Making sure vigi's don't overlap
2) Making sure DT's don't overlap
I don't think there is another way of ensuring that stuff doesn't overlap. I also agree there isn't anything to lose beforehand either. My main concern is what happens afterward if we follow that plan.
@ Qatol, I'm not saying to verify his analysis, but Caller bolded and listed a few sentences in the story "that might be clues and could be checked." Page 8 for reference if anyone needs it.
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On March 20 2009 11:54 Ver wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 11:44 Qatol wrote:
No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen. You're right for some reason I thought we didn't include that this game. I need to read the first page more thoroughly -_- This isn't my specialty and I have other things to prepare so I'll let the people eager do this point out clearly the important potential clue sentences DTs should ask about.
Since nobody else is takling about this, I will get things started:
The guy offering to help Chuiu up
The guy charging at Chuiu while having his hands behind his head
The third guy not getting out of the car
The shockwave from the builiding explosion (I highly doubt this is a clue, but it was discussed)
The item Incognito finding staying lost
If anyone has a better idea, please post it.
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Blah. I'm freaking retarded. Vigis if they send their hits in first, kill their target regardless, this negates a lot of my arguments. Sigh, I feel hella dumb atm.
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On March 20 2009 11:59 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2009 11:54 Ver wrote:On March 20 2009 11:44 Qatol wrote:
No, I argue that they use the other clue check ability. The "is this a clue?" ability. We have enough trouble even with THAT in day 1 posts. I don't think we should try to make a connection. That simply won't happen. You're right for some reason I thought we didn't include that this game. I need to read the first page more thoroughly -_- This isn't my specialty and I have other things to prepare so I'll let the people eager do this point out clearly the important potential clue sentences DTs should ask about. Since nobody else is takling about this, I will get things started: The guy offering to help Chuiu up The guy charging at Chuiu while having his hands behind his head The third guy not getting out of the car The shockwave from the builiding explosion (I highly doubt this is a clue, but it was discussed) The item Incognito finding staying lost If anyone has a better idea, please post it.
This is a good compilation of what's been discussed so far. Also, remember one of the mafia, that killed Incognito, stayed behind to make sure he was dead. That brings the total to four mafia.
1) Guy charging
2) Guy helping
3) Guy driving
4) Guy making sure Incognito was dead.
Also, there's a sentence when Chuiu describes the three men running away to the car: "He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for?"
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Damn it, you guys are too fast. This has all been posted anyway, but I'm not letting my effort go to nothing!
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Possible clues from the Day One post. I'm looking for things that seem out of the ordinary in the post that normally wouldn't seem intuitive or natural given the (admittedly non-intuitive, unnatural) course of events. For instance, I'm not sure the shockwave was a clue, because when bombs powerful enough to destroy a building go off, shockwaves are supposed to happen next.
On March 17 2009 12:21 Chuiu wrote:
Except for the explosion in City Hall. The sheriff, Chuiu, ran out of his office across the street to see the building crumbling in on itself.
Possibly a clue? I know quite a few people's profiles contain mentions of bombs and explosions, if nothing else. In addition, I remember Caller made special note of the building collapsing in on itself, like an implosion.
He finally caught up with them a few moments later as they were getting in a car. He noticed they weren't leaving right away, what could they be waiting for?
As Chuiu himself asks, what could they be waiting for? Is there a fourth man? Something else they're waiting to see? This is unusual, so it may have some hidden meaning. Or maybe not.
But while he did so the mafia lowering himself sprinted toward Chuiu and with his hands still behind his head grabbed the gun and threw it to the side.
Definitely unusual. Both hands still behind his head, yet the Mafioso is able to get control of the gun? I agree this might point to something non-human or superhuman.
He reached out his hand as if to help Chuiu up, Chuiu grabbed his hand with a puzzled look on his face and began to get up. But then the mafia pulled him close and stabbed him in the chest.
Especially considering Chuiu could simply have said, "He stabbed him in the chest," I think the beginning of this must be significant. The fact that he reaches out as if to pull Chuiu up, but then uses the gesture to make it easier to kill him, suggests a theme of betrayal or deceit. "Stab in the chest" isn't too far from "stab in the back." Perhaps if we see others die because their trust was betrayed, this might become an important link.
Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead.
First of all, much applause and props to Incognito for sifting through rubble after being caught in a bomb blast. What fortitude! Now, the guy who stays back. Does this indicate caution on his part? Is his job to clean up any mess left behind? Is this the guy the three were waiting for before? Again, this is unusual, so who knows what meanings could be hidden?
Of course, having seen the Day One clues and reasoning from Chuiu's aborted game, I'm sure the fact that the sky is blue is probably a clue to someone. But I hope this helps.
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United States7488 Posts
Like I've been saying... the Mafia learns next to nothing. The town learns everything.
We can starting making a Vigi/Mafia list (Mafia can make a small green townie list... I'm quite scared). We know which kills were potentially Vigi kills when otherwise we'd know nothing (Mafia will already know which kills are Vigi kills and it doesn't really matter if they know who did it since they can't again). There is a small chance we can confirm the Vigi is 100% innocent (this even being a possibility would distract the mafia or make them act non-optimally). Sometimes for the town called out Vigis will prevent clue confusion (more of the time Vigis would create clue confusion if completely hidden). It is not possible for blocked hit or role overlaps (It is a small possibility Role abilities could overlap, which is still more than none)
Why are we trying to hide information from the town that is beneficial to us and only slightly aids Mafia if at all?
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Ok what about the problem of a public vigi getting his kill refunded - if a private vigi had that happen he would just find another target.
If a public vigi gets his kill refunded he'll die that night.
But a public vigi won't get his kill refunded - he sends his kill in early so the mafia will see the kill and then react:
If the vigi names a blue/green the mafia let him do it and get an EXTRA kill.
If the vigi names a red, yay.
Either way, If you're a good player that's managed to live this long while contributing you're gonna bring a lot of attention to yourself and die especially if you use red kill to show up as a guaranteed innocent. I think MrBabyHands has shown that good players have to do everything they can to maintain a low profile to survive. Also, if a private vigi kills a red they can wait until they think the climate is right to make the claim if they think they can lead to the town can maybe ask them to come out if they want to protect the vigi with medics at that point.
Seriously though, I think it's like a Monty Hall problem to some extent. If the vigi is gonna hit a blue that the mafia was going to hit, the mafia will get a boost by switching their hit to another player since the vigi can't change their hit and sends it in before the mafia giving them time to react.
So it's kind of like a potential two-hit swing against the town's favor if the vigis call out hits:
Private Vigi: if they pick a blue, they can get lucky and pick one the mafia picked and get their hit back, maybe get lucky next time
Public Vigi: if they pick a blue, the mafia won't pick that person and so the mafia get an extra hit
even if the mafia fuck up and put a hit for the same person, the vigi will probably get killed that night and not be able to use the refunded hit
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EPT
