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On March 18 2009 06:05 MrBabyHands wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 05:56 Qatol wrote:
You are correct about Millers. However, there isn't really anything that can be done about it. We have to treat millers as mafiosos early on at least.
i disagree. i think the difference between mafia and millers can be determined by their actions and their post content. i think this is a game about people, not logical strategies. find me someone who shows up red during an investigation-- a basic post and personality analysis can tell you if you got the right person or not. the signs of people lying can be detected, even over the ether. this is a factor i think a lot of people are underestimating.
Yes but that can only be done with a sufficient amount of data hence the "early on" part. Also, it cannot be done with some of the players (Ace comes to mind).
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On March 18 2009 06:07 Qatol wrote:
Yes but that can only be done with a sufficient amount of data hence the "early on" part. Also, it cannot be done with some of the players (Ace comes to mind).
we have all the data we need. past games and regular forum posts are excellent resources to a persons online personality and playing style.
all players are vulnerable in this-- some more than others. but nobody is immune.
lol, i'll show you what i mean once things get poppin.
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BabyHands, what makes you so sure mafia aren't trying to get elected?
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Guys, we're making a big mistake here.
Why is everyone assuming none of the main talking guys ain't mafia?
Because we're practically going an all-in with this strategy, a cheese. It is a high probability that one of them is actually mafia and that would practically screw this plan.
Protecting the vets is the biggest mistake i see since it's clear that most vets got good roles (like mafia or something blue) and not the shitty green which is gave to newbies. I do believe this is the algorithm that Chuiu has followed when designating the roles.
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On March 18 2009 06:15 BWdero wrote:
BabyHands, what makes you so sure mafia aren't trying to get elected?
the people who made compelling arguments for being elected are also the ones finding the holes in the strategies others propose.
a mafia wouldn't do nearly as much in such a situation. it behooves an elected mafia to commit to following a flawed plan.
This is how people think.
the people i listed are innocent.
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On March 17 2009 12:21 Chuiu wrote:
Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car.
I think the third person is deaf as u guys said and the possible suspect is semioldguy.
Just saying my thoughts.
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On March 18 2009 06:27 MrBabyHands wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 06:15 BWdero wrote:
BabyHands, what makes you so sure mafia aren't trying to get elected? This is how people think.
This right here is how people think. Even Steven Pinker admits to knowing nothing about another's thoughts or how the mind processes them. 
I'm going to read the thread after page 9 and see what's come up. Summary on the candidates running?
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On March 18 2009 06:42 LucasWoJ wrote:This right here is how people think. Even Steven Pinker admits to knowing nothing about another's thoughts or how the mind processes them. I'm going to read the thread after page 9 and see what's come up. Summary on the candidates running?
Its true-- we cant know about a person's thoughts or what they think... or even how they think.
But we CAN predict their behaviors fairly accurately.
perhaps i should rephrase then. "This is how people act." would be more appropriate.
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United States7488 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:40 CompX wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2009 12:21 Chuiu wrote:
Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. I think the third person is deaf as u guys said and the possible suspect is semioldguy. Just saying my thoughts.
At least say how this makes me a possible suspect 
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Canada7170 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:51 semioldguy wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 06:40 CompX wrote:On March 17 2009 12:21 Chuiu wrote:
Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. I think the third person is deaf as u guys said and the possible suspect is semioldguy. Just saying my thoughts. At least say how this makes me a possible suspect
Old people --> hearing problems.
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uh your name said it all, what happen to a person when they are getting old: can't hear properly+ the third is in the car which block some sound that came from outside the car
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On March 18 2009 05:47 MrBabyHands wrote:
a few of the people posting ideas are clearly trying to trick the mafia into making a bad move. this much is obvious. if i noticed this, then certainly the mafia does as well. which is probably why they aren't posting.
in most games, the mafia are either actively trying to get elected, or are in the back trying not to attract attention. The later is the case for this game. There is very little bandwagoning and lots of strategic talk. Mafia are just watching at this point.
Which tells us that:
quatol
caller
bw
semioldguy
pyrr
bloddycobbler
are all very likely innocent.
i also know a blue role-- they'd been hinting at it for a while in this thread (prolly subconsciously-- even more proof of their innocence). i doubt anybody else has even picked up on it. I'll PM them to let them know to be more cautious.
I think it's way to early for a post like this. Some mafia may just be inactive noobs like with the last game. And mafia can be pretty diverse in how much they post I know when I was in MTF's mafia I talked incessantly (as I did last game as a DT). And we were pretty organized but still we all talked different amounts. All Caller has posted that I've noticed is a post to say he's running and a post to quietly say he's not. I guess maybe something came up but usually he's super active and seemed pretty pumped to participate a few days ago and internal to the game all I can see to motivate him pulling out of the race is that he started running before role PMs and then rolled red at which point he felt the need to slink away from the inevitable DT checks. But external to the game plenty of things may have come up and I can't debate that.
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United States7488 Posts
On March 18 2009 06:54 mikeymoo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 06:51 semioldguy wrote:On March 18 2009 06:40 CompX wrote:On March 17 2009 12:21 Chuiu wrote:
Two of them exited. They approached Chuiu slowly and he backed up to a safer distance keeping the gun aimed at them. When they stopped he lowered the gun slightly and told them to put their hands behind their backs and get on the ground, then he yelled at the third person to get out of the car. I think the third person is deaf as u guys said and the possible suspect is semioldguy. Just saying my thoughts. At least say how this makes me a possible suspect Old people --> hearing problems.
Hmm... didn't see that one, but I understand that reasoning.
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On March 18 2009 06:27 MrBabyHands wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 06:15 BWdero wrote:
BabyHands, what makes you so sure mafia aren't trying to get elected? the people who made compelling arguments for being elected are also the ones finding the holes in the strategies others propose. a mafia wouldn't do nearly as much in such a situation. it behooves an elected mafia to commit to following a flawed plan. This is how people think. the people i listed are innocent.
When I rolled mafia two games ago I poked holes in plans enthusiastically and in general did everything I could to forget I was red and I was constantly thinking of what my motivations would be as a green townie and what I would say/do as a townie and I almost got into the inner circle that way except I didn't need to because we got our godfather elected partly due to my support. We can trust no one at this point.
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On March 18 2009 06:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2009 05:47 MrBabyHands wrote:
a few of the people posting ideas are clearly trying to trick the mafia into making a bad move. this much is obvious. if i noticed this, then certainly the mafia does as well. which is probably why they aren't posting.
in most games, the mafia are either actively trying to get elected, or are in the back trying not to attract attention. The later is the case for this game. There is very little bandwagoning and lots of strategic talk. Mafia are just watching at this point.
Which tells us that:
quatol
caller
bw
semioldguy
pyrr
bloddycobbler
are all very likely innocent.
i also know a blue role-- they'd been hinting at it for a while in this thread (prolly subconsciously-- even more proof of their innocence). i doubt anybody else has even picked up on it. I'll PM them to let them know to be more cautious.
I think it's way to early for a post like this. Some mafia may just be inactive noobs like with the last game. And mafia can be pretty diverse in how much they post I know when I was in MTF's mafia I talked incessantly (as I did last game as a DT). And we were pretty organized but still we all talked different amounts. All Caller has posted that I've noticed is a post to say he's running and a post to quietly say he's not. I guess maybe something came up but usually he's super active and seemed pretty pumped to participate a few days ago and internal to the game all I can see to motivate him pulling out of the race is that he started running before role PMs and then rolled red at which point he felt the need to slink away from the inevitable DT checks. But external to the game plenty of things may have come up and I can't debate that.
Well Caller has made a lot more posts than just making and ending his candidacy but that just makes me wonder why he is worried about being too lazy to be an officer when he's been able to post so much and he doesn't give an idea of something coming up that will swamp him just that he's lazy. I know he's ran for office in at least one previous game so I figured he'd be serious about his candidacy but maybe he has decided the limelight would be to bright after all? I dunno.
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do we vote for a sheriff/mayor yet?
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On March 18 2009 07:15 Night[Mare wrote:
do we vote for a sheriff/mayor yet?
yeah we need to hurry up i dunno how many have voted but I think there may be only 3 or so hours left and there can't be 40 votes yet, maybe not even 30...
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Morning lasts 48 hours unless otherwise stated. Night is 24 hours. You have another 28ish hours.
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On March 18 2009 06:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I think it's way to early for a post like this. Some mafia may just be inactive noobs like with the last game.
this kinda supports my claim that the mafia havent been posting
On March 18 2009 06:58 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
And mafia can be pretty diverse in how much they post I know when I was in MTF's mafia I talked incessantly (as I did last game as a DT). And we were pretty organized but still we all talked different amounts. All Caller has posted that I've noticed is a post to say he's running and a post to quietly say he's not. I guess maybe something came up but usually he's super active and seemed pretty pumped to participate a few days ago and internal to the game all I can see to motivate him pulling out of the race is that he started running before role PMs and then rolled red at which point he felt the need to slink away from the inevitable DT checks. But external to the game plenty of things may have come up and I can't debate that.
if the mafia has few experienced people, then they wont be very diverse at all. and i read the last game-- you guys didnt seem that organized to me. lol
i understand where you're coming from. i just know that i'm better at figuring people out than they are at hiding.
its kinda funny tho-- by addressing my list, you are actually proving your innocence even more. a mafia member wouldnt intentionally cast doubt on a list that says they are innocent. but an innocent trying to help to town would.
either way, those people are good. as the game progresses, you will see that. 
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On March 18 2009 07:18 Chuiu wrote:
Morning lasts 48 hours unless otherwise stated. Night is 24 hours. You have another 28ish hours.
oh whew
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EPT
