|
On March 19 2008 10:30 Kau wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 10:16 qrs wrote:On March 19 2008 09:58 CDRdude wrote:After thinking this through, I have come to the conclusion that there is no flaw. + Show Spoiler [Why there is no flaw] +
Okay. In this example, we will have 7 bodyguards, 1 mayor, 20 mafia, and a bunch of other people who aren't important, we can call them townies.
If the mayor is mafia, and is smart, he will do this:
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 1
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
As far as the legitimate bodyguard can tell, this is legit. The mafia will obviously claim to be bodyguards, and Bodyguard 1 won't know better.
Send a PM to:
Bodyguard 2
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
Again, the real bodyguard can't tell the difference.
PM3:
Mafia 1
Mafia 2
.
.
.
Mafia 6
You should be getting the point by now. If you aren't, you probably don't deserve to be mayor.
The mafia mayor can do this a total of seven times, so that each bodyguard receives a PM with 6 other people on it. Each of those people insist that they are bodyguards, the real bodyguards won't know the difference, and no real bodyguard will be left out. Since no real bodyguard will be left out, nobody will stand out to say that they didn't receive a PM.
This can't last forever, but it can do a lot of damage. One of two things will happen; either a bodyguard will stand out, according to qrs' plan. The other (real) bodyguards will recognize him as not being in their group, and they'll cry out. Confusion ensues, but people will soon realize that the mayor is a mafioso. However, this takes a bit of time, and the mafia gets a good bit of damage in. BUT---once the real situation is discovered, mafia's 1-6 lives are forfeit. Net gain for the town. The mafia could avoid some of this by mixing in more bodyguards to the PM's, but even then it's a loss for the mafia, gain for the town.
The other possibility is if no bodyguard stands out (the mayor ignores qrs' plan) and a fake detective proclaims that the mayor is innocent. That's nice. However, that also assumes that no other detective checked on the mayor, which is unlikely to happen. Soon, the truth will come out, and the bodyguards will realize that the others in the message are fakes, and can be lynched/mad hatted/killed during the night/permabanned or whatever. End result: town is ahead. This will be a bit bloody, but about equal numbers of mafia and town will die here, so that's still +town.
How to avoid all the mess: Basically, qrs' plan is needed. A bodyguard has to step forward. All the real bodyguards will know whether or not he was included in the PM to them, so you don't have to confirm anything. Of course, that bodyguard will probably be gunned down during the night, but whatever, sucks for him. Much as I hate to admit it, I believe my plan is flawed. As per Kau's post, a Mafia can identify himself as a bodyguard, and all the bodyguards will believe he is telling the truth. The Bodyguard plan is not failsafe after all. Unless someone comes up with something new, we will have to waste some detective power as Ghar has been saying. We would only have to lose one detective. Ace said that if the detectives find the mayor is innocent, then they say nothing. If the mayor is mafia, then the detectives speak out. Now in the case the detectives speak out, we would first have to lynch the detective to see if he's an actual detective or mafia. If he's actual detective then we know the mayor is mafia. If he's mafia then we know the mayor is townie. Hmm... Actually, what happens in the case the mayor is mafia, and a mafia-detective points him out along with real detective. Would we have to lynch both to be sure? I'd assume so. Basically we just lynch everybody that claims to be detective. So hopefully one detective will find the will to claim that the mayor is mafia and after that the rest of the detectives should not say anything, because everyone else will get lynched as well.
|
On March 19 2008 10:34 goldenkrnboi wrote:what if the pardoner is mafia?  Then when he pardons someone a vigilante takes that person out the next night. If the person who got pardoned is mafia, then we lynch the pardoner next day.
|
Lol, don't worry. I kind of thought of that after posting it, but then goldenkrnboi told me I was clever and so I wanted to bask in the glory until someone decided to ruin it >.>
|
Oh damn, that's true. Even though all the detectives will probably be able to confide in Empyrean if he's found to be a towny, his own powers will probably be rendered useless since the mafia will try to keep the saboteur on him for at least the first few days/nights.
|
eh, well it's better to point out clues to the potential mayors than to just have them randomly lynch someone. I agree that at this stage of the game it's stupid to try to decisively claim that someone is mafia, however there's no harm in just discussing the clues now. Since what we discuss could influence the mayor's choice for who he lynches.
|
On March 19 2008 13:41 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 13:40 Chuiu wrote:On March 19 2008 13:00 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:On March 19 2008 12:59 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 12:57 ahrara_ wrote:
I see clues as largely a means of supporting a suspicion, not the beginning of one. Like I said, if you've been following the thread, there have been people who've done some weird things that warrant suspicions. Nothing for sure, but plenty of starting points not based on clues. This is something that needs constant repeating. You seriously do remind me of Tracil last game. You just don't say "scum" as every second word. As long as he's not using 'scum' and '<->' ten times a post... (seriously though <-> started to annoy the fuck out of me) <-> <-> <-> wow it annoys me to type that, let alone read it. eh? I don't recall Tracil using <-> that many times in his posts...it would be annoying though.
|
For anyone who cares, Randombum just pulled ahead of Empyrean. Right now the vote tallies for the top 3 are.
Ace-31
randombum-20
Empyrean-18
|
On March 20 2008 00:51 Ziel wrote:suspicioussss....empy edited post! Well he edited it out on the same minute as he original posted it, so he probably meant to post it in another topic.
|
On March 20 2008 01:13 Ziel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2008 09:09 Kau wrote:On March 19 2008 09:02 Ace wrote:On March 19 2008 08:57 Kau wrote:
Ace:
About your Bodyguard plan, what stops a mafia mayor from pming each actual bodyguard with a list that is something like:
mafia 1
mafia 2
mafia 3
bodyguard #
Each actual bodyguard would get a pm back from each of the fake mafia-bodyguards and they wouldn't know.
Then once the mayor gets checked by a detective, couldn't there be fake mafia-detectives that state that the mayor is innocent? They can't because all the other Bodyguards that didn't get a PM would know something is wrong. In the event that they do that, it just helps the town because we can just apply all clues and DT/Jack power to that list of suspects and catch the Mafia asap. No fake detective is going to spring forward and state the Mayor is innocent because they run the risk at having a real detective also step forward and once again we are back to place where we have confirmed a situation with at least 1 suspect as Mafia (because someone is lying) and a sure fire Mafia lynching. What I'm saying is that the pm is sent to every real bodyguard. Say there are 3 bodyguards. 3 pms would be sent out: Mafia 1 Mafia 2 Bodyguard 1 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 Bodyguard 2 Mafia 1 Mafia 2 Bodyguard 3 Each bodyguard would then get pms back from Mafia 1 and 2 and thus are "confirmed". And about fake detectives springing forward and stating the mayor is innocent, the townies have no way of knowing who is telling the truth and who isn't. We can't know when a real detective steps forward because he could very well be fake. WOW. This is a big flaw in the DT plan -_- And I dont see any way we can go around it if we have a mafia major. We need to seriously rethink what the mayor's backup plans are gonna be in his first 100 days in office! I'm starting to have suspicions with Ace, because despite his sound arguments right up to this post, he's persistent in that this flaw isn't even there (if Im correct from what I've read of his posts) :O And to the person that suggested the idea that we a detective should come up, WHO would the brave soul be? And we have no way of verifying it's true! (Unless more detectives come up..but that would be plain stupid). Though it seems its the most solid plan we have now, having to lose even one DT for this plan...The worst case scenario is that the mafias have taught out a real good plan to mess this up and we're not seeing it...Bah I dont even know if Im making much sense now...better reread some posts again.
We've gone over this a bunch of times already. A detective will check out the mayor, if he's mafia then the detective will post his findings. After that we lynch the detective, if he turns blue then we lynch the mayor (we lynch the detective to deter mafiosos from spreading false rumors and declaring themselves detective).
Edit: and dinmsab, you have to post your votes in Chuiu's blog, not here.
|
I'm just saying that if we find out the mayor is mafia, we'll know not to listen to anything he says. We can choose to lynch him, or we can choose not to. However if we do find out the mayor is mafia then we'll probably have to lynch him since it's doubtful he'd be willing to declare double lynches since he'll no longer be forced to work in the town's best interests.
However we're pretty much forced to check if the mayor is mafia, because if we don't then he can seriously fuck up the townies through persuasion. So if we get a mafia mayor we're pretty much fucked and everything we do beyond that point is just damage control.
|
On March 20 2008 02:45 HotZhot wrote:
Still many people inactive, I hope the important roles are all playing actively Well judging from the votes, about 95 people have cast in their votes which equates to roughly 75%. So even if they're not posting, at least 75% of the people playing are at least reading the thread. It's not great, but it's much better than last game at least.
|
On March 20 2008 03:07 RtS)Night[Mare wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 02:45 ahrara_ wrote:
Just so I don't look like a total moron in case Empyrean turns out to be innocent ...
I am not saying Empyrean is Mafia. I don't even have strong suspicions at the moment. I would NOT vote to lynch him, and strongly suggest that paramedics protect him the first night, until we verify his role, and until he uses both his role checks himself. I am arguing from a logical point of view that there is no reason to trust that he is detective. There is no reason to believe he's not a detective either. I'm just saying that given that we can't trust anybody, it's equally likely randombum is a detective. Role claiming at this point is useless, and more likely to be a ploy. If Emp turns out ot be innocent, well fuck me. I'll end up looking like a moron, and Ace too. In my opinion though, it's better to be safe than sorry. suicide bomber ftw I'm sure mafia would want to save their suicide bomber for later in the game. As it stands I think his extra half-kill is more important for the early rounds.
EDIT: OMG CORSAIR! YIPEE!
|
|
|
On March 20 2008 05:09 Lenwe wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2008 05:06 Vharox wrote:On March 20 2008 04:44 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote:
By the way, I apologize to Vharox, I didn't even consider that it could be your brother, and you didn't seem like the kind to cheat when we were discussing last game. Forgiven :-P <3 About that, I seriously don't see the reason why they would cheat in this game, so I vote we don't remove either of them from the game. And stop accusing people of being mafia, we can't tell so far who is and who isn't. The only reasons to do it now is to cause more confusion amongst the town members and that is something town members should not try to do. Noone's trying to get anyone lynched at this point. The only reason people are trying to figure out if Empyrean is mafia or not is because he's running for mayor and obviously a mafia mayor would be bad (and they're not even trying to be certain about his affiliation, only his likeliness of being mafia). All the other people interpreting clues aren't doing it because they're trying to get those people lynched, they're just getting some sleuthing started so that when more clues come in we can cross reference them with what we've already gathered. No harm in that.
|
On March 20 2008 05:27 BlindAlbino wrote:
yea but what makes you think they will call you out as mafia if they know that will happen? what if the detective knows you are mafia but just stays silent for his own greed? that is what im getting at. Then that person would be a greedy asshole and everyone will continue to insult him throughout the rest of the game, and through the rest of the next game if he plays there.
Plus, if they sacrifice themselves I'll photoshop a memorial plaque for them or something.
|
Awesome, glad you cleared all that up! Thanks
|
Ace - 31
+ Show Spoiler +BlindAlbino
Energies
Camlito
CDRdude
xDark.Carnivalx
JoxxOr
ghar
spoinka
Hittegods
Naib
useLess
ShadowDrgn
Falcynn
zeks
Caller
Artanis[Xp]
Fishball
MasterOfChaos
Lenwe
ahrara_
Queasy
NeaX
goldenkrnboi
French_Toast
Pangolin
Alethios
Yogurt
Empyrean
New104
clazziquai
Alventenie
randombum - 23
+ Show Spoiler +LTT
L
GeneralStan
MTF
Showtime!
crazie-penguin
Hollander
Mynock
suresh0t
Dr.Dragoon
G.s)NarutO
Sadir
fanatacist
Bockit
BWdero
Ninja4ever.
So no fek
Lysithea
GrayArea
jeejee
Meta
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Ace
Empyrean - 18
+ Show Spoiler +~OpZ~
Last Romantic
Meta
Eti307
RtS)Night[Mare
NatsuTerran
SoleSteeler
Jimtudor
nemY
decafchicken
imDerek
KH1031
LoStYouRSkiLLS
ShaLLoW[baY]
LucasWoJ
HeRoS)Pink
butidigress
GranDim
SonuvBob - 4
+ Show Spoiler +MoRe_mInErAls
wurm
bumatlarge
Chezinu
araav - 5
+ Show Spoiler +SonuvBob
RowdierBob
Klive5ive
qrs
AcrossFiveJulys
ghar - 4
+ Show Spoiler +Amber[LighT]
rpf
Ziel
TranceStorm
fusionsdf - 4
+ Show Spoiler +
Plexa - 2
+ Show Spoiler +
Last Romantic - 2
+ Show Spoiler +
Abstain - 6
+ Show Spoiler +BloodyC0bbler
Wysp
HotZhot
MidnightGladius
randombum
CTStalker
oh, sorry Chuiu, didn't catch your post.
Well at least that's less work for you hopefully
|
On March 20 2008 07:57 Lenwe wrote:
By that reasoning everyone that voted for someone without giving a reason is suspicious. Yeah, that seems like a pretty good starting point to me.
|
|
|
This is probably a stupid question, but I figured I'd just ask it anyway to get it off my mind. Regular detectives only have 2 rolechecks per game. However if a jack uses the detective abilities, does he get the role checks back. Considering that when they use their veteran powers they regain their night lives, I figured I'd ask. (again, probably a dumb question, but I just wanted to let it out)
Also, being absolutely sure that our mayor isn't mafia is way more important imo than essentially wasting 3 role checks that wouldn't have needed to be used. So I encourage all detectives to use their role check if possible.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
