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Sweet Summer Mafia - Page 8
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Imagine if the situation was reversed and we lynched scott31337 and (imagine) he flipped town, would this make AlphaZero mafia? I'm really not understanding this. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Got any thoughts on who is mafia? Or should I come back another time? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 13:24 Trfel wrote: I guess I could maybe understand this if your view is that scott31337 is objectively way way scummier than Kelsi3r was and that this looks like it for everyone, no matter what. In that case, sure I could see rsoultin's town lean on scott31337 being TMI and AlphaZero's null read on Kelsi3r not being TMI. But that seems like a huge stretch.If scott31337 is town, I guess I don't understand why this makes rsoultin/Koshi mafia? Imagine if the situation was reversed and we lynched scott31337 and (imagine) he flipped town, would this make AlphaZero mafia? I'm really not understanding this. Like if you see it that way that's one thing, but to insist that everyone has to? I mean I don't see it that way, so that immediately disproves it? Unless you think that I (and only I) am an idiot, which is true but this whole thing still feels like a stretch to me. Not really thinking scott31337 is mafia. Could be wrong, part of me wonders if it's best to just let him die to the "holy" crusade, but that feels so bad.... Will try and think more about it later. Really confused about raynpelikoneet. Is he mafia in hyper buddy mode or something? I never would have thought it possible for raynpelikoneet to go five pages without an actual scumread, regardless of alignment, and I don't know what this means? My best guess is to rely on the prior townread due to his reads being interesting, but I can't discount the possibility that he is mafia and went super buddy mode. But it's like, why would he do that when he could just play normally if he is mafia? Seems more reasonable that he somehow didn't see anything that really stuck out as scummy or worth pushing, and then wasn't available to find anything during the second half of day 1. Still really confused by Oatsmaster. Maybe he's just town because memory says that when he's obnoxious and useless he's town, but it's really really hard for me to get past how obnoxious some of his play has been. I'm not sure if I can just let this drop. Even if maybe I should. He's going to ask me to provide quotes and examples and I'm going to ignore him. I think AlphaZero is unlikely to be mafia just due to the amount of investment at the lynch. Sure, he could theoretically be mafia and making all this fuss for no reason, but the key is that there'd be no reason. Idk, marvellosity is playing the game, which usually means he is town. If it wasn't for him typically not playing the game as mafia though, would I think he is town? Maybe I just stick with the funny read/metric, it feels pretty tinfoily here to think marvellosity is mafia, I guess that ought to be good enough for now. Honestly I'm kinda disappointed in Vivax, I was expecting some amazing insight and it ended up just being a misunderstanding Such a let down. A simple activity metric suggests that Vivax is town, but his activity isn't out of the realm of possibility as mafia, just unlikely. I'm having trouble finding anything notable in his filter (to be fair I'm just randomly opening pages and skimming which probably isn't the best method) but part of me is concerned that he seemed fine lynching Kelsi3r, seemed fine lynching scott31337, and then comes up with this?On June 09 2024 12:07 Vivax wrote: Vivax wanted scott31337 lynched I assume, I mean Vivax was voting for scott31337, so why is Vivax saying this instead of looking to make sure scott31337 actually gets lynched? Even from the perspective of purely an observation and not a desire it doesn't sit right to me.Scott is never going to get lynched on D2, and he isn‘t going to get vigged either. Going by experience. Doesn‘t have to be a bad thing but it means we look for 2-3 outside of him. Part of me wonders if die_meatbaby is mafia? No real reason, I do feel a bit weird about her posts on not really wanting to lynch scott31337: On June 08 2024 09:42 die_meatbaby wrote: I think you are right. I was reading a few games from him mafia and town. He were making small bs in town games as well but also the games I was reading were old. He should not be a d1 vote in my opinion On June 09 2024 08:41 die_meatbaby wrote: It reads like it could be mafia protecting someone for now but setting up to lynch them later. Not a very good reason, unfortunately I'm running out of sensible mafia reads, so there's some POE here, as much as I hate POE. Hopefully seeing more gameplay, when die_meatbaby has more time, will clear this up, but I think this is a direction I'm inclined to at least look into.Tbr i would like to lynch az. Also I hate the first lynch after it it always gets easier. Most of the time lynch 1 is misslynch anway. I am stucking at work with a group of austrian mafia, good that tomorrow they are gone. Scott i don't really townread you but for now I don't want to lynch, I rather take K who is more inactiv and I think it would be a more logical lynch. I am really sorry for beeing this inactiv today. Tomorrow I will be here ##vote k I do think sandroba could absolutely be mafia, I don't have meaningful reasons to say he's mafia but at the same time I don't have meaningful reasons to say he's town. Maybe another area to look into? I like Mocsta's posts but I also have trouble understanding like a third or a quarter of them so maybe I'm just being bad in liking them? I guess I'm most interested in looking at die_meatbaby, Alakaslam, and sandroba, but it kinda feels like most people are in a similar, "meh" tier, so that isn't that helpful. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 14:27 Koshi wrote: Guess that means you are mafia There is no way scott is mafia. He was one of my first townreads. (I forgot why) rayn is obvious town and I agree with him so that is potentially odd. Mostly when we are town we disagree more.  In all seriousness though, raynpelikoneet not having any real scumreads doesn't bother you? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 14:36 Koshi wrote: Haha, the person playing changes but nothing really changes Ok. We can kill sandroba first. Good stuff. That will be easy and then you will trust me enough to go get marv and mocsta. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 14:42 Koshi wrote: Rsoultin wanted to lynch sandroba, a few people talked about wanting to lynch AlphaZero or raynpelikoneet but nothing else gained much traction.❤ How much talk was there to not lynch you or Kelsier yesterday? Who wanted to go outside you 2? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
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On June 09 2024 14:51 Koshi wrote: Uh....Want to talk Mocsta? Does it feel he is a townie being lost at times and just making noise? Or what do you think? Like I said, I have been having a hard time understanding what Mocsta is getting at probably at least a quarter of the time. Which is kind of a lot. Even when I don't agree with what he is saying, I think the angles he is taking makes him look towny, which makes me inclined to let him do his thing instead of pestering him constantly to explain what he is saying? I just skimmed through his filter and don't really have a reason to suspect him tbh, Actually, I guess he was the person with the mini-case on AlphaZero, and then he ended up voting alongside AlphaZero on scott31337 right? It's possible that Mocsta's read on AlphaZero changed, he seems to say this happened at some points, but at a skim I can't actually find this happening though it's more likely I'm just not seeing it. Lot of words to say I think Mocsta is more likely town? Mostly because idk what makes him mafia. But if you have reasons for him to be mafia, please go ahead. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Which means it's probably time to start from scratch. Ignoring reasons that might make people town, because that leads to POE, only looking at why people could be mafia. Oatsmaster: feels like he's intentionally trying to annoy people and disrupt the game rsoultin/Koshi: no real reason? scott31337: Just read AlphaZero's filter I guess? die_meatbaby: twice, die_meatbaby said that she didn't want to lynch scott31337 at this time but left the door wide open for lynching scott31337 in the future Alakaslam: no real reason, but unlike the rsoultin/Koshi slot, this is a no real reason but kinda want to lynch (or at least push) raynpelikoneet: no serious scumreads sandroba: low activity/involvement, very uninspired marvellosity: there may be something in his tension over the deadline? He seems so so unhappy with the state of the game, but also didn't really do much about it. Granted, with a ton of people not being present and with him being drunk there may not have been much to do about it, but I'm trying to come up with reasons that make people mafia, regardless of how valid they are (for now)? That said, this reason is particularly poor, there isn't a ton of need for mafia to be so unhappy with the lynch sitting solidly on a townie.. but moreso, why would mafia!marvellosity be so unhappy about town!Kelsier being lynched but also not actually do anything about it? Feels like such a stretch.Mocsta: no real reason? Maybe that Mocsta suspected AlphaZero and then later voted scott31337 with AlphaZero, but it looks like Mocsta's read on AlphaZero changed in the meantime even though I can't find the post(s) indicating this while skimming. Vivax: Voted for scott31337, seemingly thought scott31337 was mafia, but then posts this and this? If he didn't think scott31337 was mafia, why would he vote for him? If he did think scott31337 is mafia, why would he change his mind because Kelsi3r flipped town? AlphaZero: really really stubborn on scott31337? I actually think sandroba comes out looking the worst. Vivax, Alakaslam, and die_meatbaby are possible as well. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 15:03 Koshi wrote: Those are two different topics though, right?So marv: 1) does not call mocsta mafia in that echange and let's him go. 2) agrees with AZ mocsta is likely mafia. To me it looks like marvellosity didn't call Mocsta mafia over their initial discussion but then agreed with AlphaZero's characterization later. I guess I am not sure what you are getting at tbh? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@Koshi, tbh I don't find that particularly compelling, but feel free to do your thing. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
@marvellosity, I'd consider lowering sandroba for sure. Maybe Vivax too but he might be fine there (I'm probably just paranoid). And I honestly would put Koshi higher, which I know you don't want to hear. Could be wrong, the one game I played with mafia!Koshi had the slight issue of me also being mafia so I didn't play, so idk what mafia!Koshi is like, but if I had to guess I don't think it would be this. @Oatsmaster, why wouldn't the reverse apply? Like, why wouldn't mafia be happy lynching town!Kelsi3r and saving the town!scott31337 lynch for tomorrow? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
His willingness to switch reads and try different angles makes me think he is town, but I suppose he could fake that as mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 18:04 AlphaZero wrote: I dunno, man.Here is the thing. His top scum read and the lynch he was pushing flipped town. And his reads didn’t change AT ALL. It was just, let’s keep lynching down my list. Which as it happens has another townie at the top. Even for bad players that’s not a normal response as town. His vote was Kelsi3r because that was practical, but I was under the impression he wanted to lynch you (AlphaZero) and maybe even sandroba more, if he could? Of all things to suspect scott31337 for, I don't get this one especially. His reasoning for wanting to lynch you and sandroba seems to primarily be that you two are incorrectly calling for his own lynch. Kelsi3r flipping town doesn't change that, so why would scott31337 change his reads? Yes, it's extremely omgus, and you can rightfully question the validity of that reasoning, but I actually think scott31337 not reevaluating makes sense from his theoretical town mindset. There are a bunch of things I'd consider lynching scott31337 for before this one. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 21:53 marvellosity wrote: Oh, I also think that some (a decent amount really) of Koshi's reasoning seems far-fetched, at least to me. My take is that Koshi actually believes it though? It's just very hard for me to say that someone can't possibly believe what they say they believe, I think that argument requires you to know someone really really well, and unless you really know what you are doing, you're far more likely to be wrong.I have sort of a… privileged? view of Koshi in that I’ve played with him a million times and I sort of know what he should or shouldn’t be thinking if that makes sense. It’s hard to externalise this for others though, but I think you can see what I’m getting at by the posts I’ve directed at him this phase. By contrast, the triumvirate in the middle (moc, Scott, DMB) I find it extremely difficult to walk in their shoes which makes them very challenging for me For example, I think that argument (this person should know better) was useful for catching mafia!raynpelikoneet a few games back, after he hard defended mafia!die_meatbaby and gave himself away in doing so. But that's a special case because I know raynpelikoneet was a strong player and he went to extreme lengths trying to keep die_meatbaby alive. Maybe you can make judgements like that about Koshi, I certainly am not capable of it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 21:54 marvellosity wrote: I mean we can talk about it now? xDI’m glad we can at least have a conversation about it at some stage. Although that’s making some nk assumptions xD | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 22:02 marvellosity wrote: Sure, I'm not really in a place to verify those arguments is all.Yes, that’s fair. I do think I can make judgments like that about Koshi is the net of it I do think that's potentially the most commonly wrong type of argument people make, but that also makes sense due to how easy it is to misapply, and you're not an idiot so theoretically you should be fine My take on the slot was that rsoultin came off as town, grain of salt because I've missed her as mafia many, many times before, and I like that Koshi suspects sandroba because I think that's a good place to be (though the second part is unflipped association so that's probably stupid). Maybe Koshi is mafia because he isn't doing the whole "I'm bad at playing as mafia so I need to play bad to make my town game match my mafia game" thing? It would be pretty hilarious and awesome to get him for that, to be fair. And yeah, I had been thinking of looking at previous Mocsta stuff, that's been overdue for me anyway. On June 09 2024 21:57 Mocsta wrote: I wasn't talking about our conclusions, moreso the reasoning you take to get there is a bit different from mine? Absolutely not a bad thing, in fact I think it's a good thing, just makes things complicated sometimes.oh my dude.. I probably thought we saw the game so closest. *Shrug* both our positions could be true Separately The stuff about could a town dmb be aware of tvt 1. From filter only reason I could imagine a kelsier vote is to sheep rsoultin whom dmb seems to town read. But vote is based on being a policy "inactiv" lunch when town read. Super scummy. 2. Why is vivax missing throughout filter whilst highlighted as critical focus at start 3. If Scott was scummy for setup talk, dmb is no different with a fair portion of filter focused on Scott history literally summarised as 'does small bs as town'; and other parts is az speculation 4. Dmb / rsoultin interactions to me.do.not look like mafia/mafia. Shame as koshi has been annoying and I'm liking dmb as mafia. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 22:14 marvellosity wrote: Dang, if not being an idiot is a compliment, you must not have as big of an ego as I thought Stop with the compliments already x  If anyone has a moment, curious if my perspective on scott31337 not re-evaluating his reads makes sense to anyone else? While it makes a lot of sense to me, if I'm wrong about this, it would be good to figure that out. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 09 2024 22:21 marvellosity wrote: Hm.... I was thinking people would either strongly agree or disagree, how can you be stuck in the middle?I’m struggling to make much of it either way? | ||
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