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MS Paint Mafia - Page 3
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
In all honest, I have no idea what that means. It's probably just Chezinu due to process of elimination, but I'm not a big fan of that argument. Gotta think about it. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I could absolutely be wrong, and I'd feel really stupid for being wrong, but it seems like the most sensible reason for the course of events. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
The interesting thing is that the rest of the votes on Oatsmaster come after Jealous left the thread (in other words, Jealous went AFK, and then everyone voted for Oatsmaster). Obviously it looks good for him to vote for Oatsmaster since Oatsmaster was mafia, but I don't think this guarantees that Jealous is town. He could have easily been planning on moving his vote later and then either been away and unable to do so, or, when the wagon on Oatsmaster built up, just left it since he has the first vote and it's a solid bus. Here's the thing though, the only real reason I have to think Jealous is mafia is because there was only one night kill, and Jealous claims to have shot Grackaroni. Pending the answer to raynpelikoneet's question, this just doesn't make a ton of sense to me if Jealous is town, because then I don't really know what mafia is doing. It's not out of the question that mafia is Chezinu or someone and he just failed to submit a night kill, he gets busy sometimes and has failed to submit night actions before. I just don't know if this is more likely than Jealous being mafia. I don't like not really having other reasons to be suspicious of Jealous. I'd feel really bad if we mislynched Jealous here just for that, since he literally did nothing wrong, he found valid reasons to vote for mafia and didn't do anything scummy or wrong. I really think it's almost certainly Jealous or a Chezinu who didn't submit a night kill. Side note, Chezinu's vote onto Oatsmaster was the fifth vote, after me, Palmar, Vivax, and of course Jealous. I think it's reasonable to predict that Oatsmaster is going to be lynched at this point, so I could easily see Chezinu bussing Oatsmaster here. Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster at about 11a PDT the day of the lynch, and his last post before then was at 9p PDT the day before. At this time, Jealous had already voted for Oatsmaster, but no one else had. When Chezinu voted for Oatsmaster, he quoted Jealous's vote post, and I think it can be safely assumed that he meant that this is the reason why. But if Chezinu is town here, why did he vote for Oatsmaster at 11a PDT the day of the lynch, but not 9p PDT the day before? Jealous had already posted his post in question, therefore the reason is already there. Nothing else changed... Except that three others of us decided to vote for Oatsmaster. It's very far from a clear-cut case, but with all that in mind I think it's more likely to be Chezinu. It's one thing (the lack of a second night kill) versus everything else, and even if that one thing seems pretty strong, everything else seems to point the other way. All pending an answer to raynpelikoneet's question, of course. One final thought, it's possible that the best strategy is to no lynch and trust that the five remaining townies can out-MS Paint the one remaining mafia player to get more information to settle things. While this doesn't seem like the worst idea ever, it's probably worse than just lynching (at least for now), and is definitely kinda boring. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 13 2024 05:56 scott31337 wrote: Eh, I mean to be fair mafia!Jealous could have gotten Framer, Vengeful mafia, or Roleblocker and just said he was town Vigilante. But yeah it seems a bit more likely to be Chezinu IMO.If the player that wins this powerup is Town, they random one of the following: Jailkeeper (You may roleblock and protect one person from KP. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Cop (You may choose a player to check their alignment. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vengeful Townie (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.) If the player that wins this powerup is Mafia, they random one of the following: Frame (Once this game, you may target a player. The player will appear as the opposite alignment if checked by the cop. You may target yourself. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Mafia Vigilante (You may shoot one person. You have only a single shot. If you are roleblocked, you will not be refunded.) Vengeful Mafia (Upon dying you have the opportunity to take revenge. You may designate one person to be shot. They will receive KP during the same phase in which you die.) Roleblocker (Next cycle, the townie's action will be roleblocked. They will not be notified of this.) To me it makes almost ZERO sense that Jealous got the Mafia Vig role and only made ONE shot and it was Grack. So he's almost confirmed town to me. What Jealous says above makes sense. I got through more than half of rayn's filter and he's not the lynch for me today. Jealous is off the table also. Palmar - he votes Oats at 9:29 EDT - and did not post it in his filter - only the voting thread. He was the second vote on Oats. Four minutes left - " I'll listen to reasoning, but... just doesn't make sense. Trfel was the first vote on Oats and he really seemed inquisitive on me - which is a good thing. That leaves Chezinu. He votes for Oats at 14:24 EDT. Only posts in the voting thread. His next message is a copy and paste of Jealous's case 14 minutes later. I may suspect Chezinu knows Oats is toast and tries to look his best. So I'm voting for him. ##Vote Chezinu | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 13 2024 13:54 scott31337 wrote: I skimmed it but I guess I missed those parts. My bad.And that sounds just like the post after that. Did you read the whole thread yet? I don't think it's too unreasonable at all for mafia to fake claim something with the role, in fact they would have to? Like, what would you do if you are mafia and you win the powerup? Everyone knows you have it, so you HAVE to say you did something towny. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Palmar also didn't post the entirety of Night 1. I don't think of Palmar as a player to miss night actions, and it's possible that he just didn't want to post if it had to be a Paint picture, but it's interesting nevertheless. Very, very surprised that Palmar is voting for raynpelikoneet here. I don't think that it makes any sense for Palmar to do this if he is town, honestly I don't think it makes much sense for him to do it as mafia but I suppose that's up for debate. Like I think that indicates that it may very well be Palmar instead of Chezinu. I'm not in a huge rush to figure it out, also we have a few lynches at our disposal, I think the options of Palmar and Chezinu are reasonable though. Of course it would be nice to get it right, but honestly I'm not super stressed about it. Going to vote for Palmar and see where that takes us. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On May 14 2024 10:20 scott31337 wrote: Sorry I really don't feel like answering this, I think I laid it out pretty clearly since I was posting as I was thinking about it. If you have any more specific questions let me know, but it should be pretty self explanatory.Could you explain the reasoning for the case for Jealous, and now you are abandoning that idea instead? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
If anyone wants to talk let me know, I don't have a ton of new thoughts though. Kinda at a loss. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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