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On March 20 2024 09:51 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 09:46 Jealous wrote:On March 20 2024 09:43 DarthPunk wrote:On March 20 2024 09:42 Jealous wrote:On March 14 2024 11:38 iamperfection wrote:A lot of things have bothered me today. CopCake makes a case on Koshi and then just almost instantly drops it just because JAT says thats how Koshi plays and then votes Palmar. Why does cop just accept as true it confuses me. Meapak_Ziphh comes back after 19 hours says hes too tired to be bothered to do anything but he has found scum? and is somehow not voting???? I keep hearing this idiotic comment that marv said Palmar is 90% likely to be town. I get it you guys all worship marv but his word isnt gospel and he very well would probably be saying different things if he was still alive its day 4 now marv died in night 2. Palmar really bothers me. He calls me scum because i have just been around not doing anything?? Like i said earlier you can say a lot of things about me but not engaged and not in the thick of things is certainly not one of them. I exposed the mason circle and tried to get reads from it. I correctly deduced that Rayn had to be town from the way he used it and almost immediately tried to make him mayor for it. Right or wrong i was screaming at the top of my longs to lynch tryfel it was wrong but so what. I have constantly been directing and calling out actions. I literally hammered VE in a quest for personal glory it backfired so what. To say i have been just around is objectively wrong. Now Palmar says he dosnt really read the thread that he just shows hes around interacts and develops reads. I dont really feel like has done that all in this game. I think if anyone with a quarter of a brain which ill grant Palmar he has a quarter of a brain could easily use meta to see i am town. This would be by FAR the largest filter i have ever had as mafia. I would also say i am much less emotional as mafia and much more reserved. My style as town requires me to post a ton and usually in quick succession. Thats why i will have mind melds which happened earlier with marv where we said the same thing. As mafia that is extremely hard for me to replicate. At least for a long period. Also as mafia its very hard for me to long posts like this were i have to fake my thoughts i just have hard time to do it. So those long list posts and posts were i collect my thoughts like i had earlier and this one quite frankly are hard for me to do. I dont think Palmar is trying figure out my alignment because he is being bad or more likely just mafia. Now do i think JAT could possibly be mafia. Yes its possible he had a post earlier where he almost knew that Koshi was mafia. {but iamperfection you said earlier that Koshi is likely town) well first of all stfu second there is a diffrence between knowing and thinking. On March 14 2024 04:32 justanothertownie wrote:On March 14 2024 04:30 iamperfection wrote:On March 14 2024 04:28 Koshi wrote:On March 12 2024 12:40 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Man what the fuck.
This game is going to be extremely hard if townies are gonna self-vote, I feel like that's playing against your wincon. I absolutely hate martyring so pointlessly. I think that was still 100% the right lynch.
And now we're gonna have to solve the CopCake problem since she did exactly the same thing. She voted herself and peaced out when the vote was 7-4 with VE in the lead. Her vote made it 6-5, still with VE in the lead. She showed no problems with leaving her vote on randos the previous two days, and if she was scum, she had a safe place to park her vote on VE or a rando as nobody would have scumread her any harder than they already were for voting to save herself. Now granted, she didn't hammer herself, the closest she ever got was 7-6 against her 2 hours later. So, did town!cake just rage quit in the exact same manner that VE did? Or did scum!cake take a gamble, not realizing how close it was going to get? If it's the second option, Rel's desperation to save her pretty much guarantees him as scum in my eyes, but I still don't know if I can wrap my head around scum!cake doing that because the vote is so close I'd argue that's pretty close to intentionally throwing. Or maybe it's all #bigplays that I'm too stupid to understand.
I have a decent amount of thread to fully catch up on after just skimming to get through it, I focused more on the voting thread to try and figure out wtf both VE and cake were doing. I'm not surprised to see there were more shenanigans by certain people. I will also have a go at reading VE's filter although idk if there's much of a point. What a town hero does. Analyse. I kind of disagree. Feel like he just summed up what happened and listed every scenario. I don't think it's super town post. You won't convince him. At this point Koshi is not reading MZs posts critically anymore. not the biggest thing but the post bothers me. He also seems a bit apathetic to what is going on. So yes i think its possible. MZ's comeback post also bothers me and the fact that he isnt voting despite finding scum On March 14 2024 10:41 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I'm home, had a shit day so I really don't have the energy to jump into filters right now, especially since I've already found 1 scum at minimum this cycle. I'll hang around the thread and play some league if people want my opinions on anything just ask. However in my eyes Palmar is the most likely mafia. Can someone make a bulletpoint explanation for why this makes iamp town again? Its the self meta analysis, which i am vouching for. Doesn't mean much to me tbh. Seems more like he casts aspersions against a bunch of town, throws a soft scum read at JAT/MZ, and then parks on town!Palmar in the end anyway. wtf then you are mafia
Alright, good talk.
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On March 20 2024 09:52 die_meatbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 09:44 DarthPunk wrote:
There is a bit of a dichotomy between DMB calling herself 'bad town' and also thinking we are all noobs and she is the only one to nail the scum team. I just accept my death as Town dmb who can´t defend myself because of my bad filter because I don´t give a fuck if something looks scummy when I write. And I am just so sure who is mafia because there are almost no other options left anymore. I found out earlier in the game than most of the others, that makes me proud of myself even when we see tomorrow that only 2 of 3 reads are correct, I am still happy. I told this since days why I think it´s you and also told why I am thinking that the oracle is mafia. Nobody cared, nobody listen so why should I invest time again and make again the reads. Also I kinda want to read the obs. Because you killed all the nice people and I have to stay here with you-.-
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On March 20 2024 11:27 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 06:21 Jealous wrote:On March 20 2024 06:18 iamperfection wrote:On March 20 2024 05:48 justanothertownie wrote:On March 20 2024 05:41 iamperfection wrote:On March 15 2024 11:07 Jealous wrote:On March 15 2024 11:05 iamperfection wrote:
so it was tvt. So i still cant wrap around a scum rels doing that at the end right near the hammer. ^ Person who breathed the biggest sigh of relief in the room IMO. And do you think he may have slipped here too? How is this one a slip? To your other point - I also found that a bit weird. I would only breathe a sigh of relief if I'm town. Therefore he knows I'm town. You'd breathe a sigh of relief as either alignment because that makes your decision more likely to come from town than from scum (because it'd be fucking stupid as scum) and thus less of a reason to suspect/lynch you regardless of your alignment. Really weird logic there to justify the joke, so maybe good point in retrospect by iamperfection. The joke was fine IMO, but this new explanation doesn't make sense. If iamperfection is scum, he would know already that he'll gain that towncred sooner or later
I said the same thing immediately after too, I'm not sure how this could be interpreted as a joke without that context. How did you interpret it?
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On March 20 2024 11:19 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2024 14:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
OK I reread the night post and beyond as best I could but I'm not really seeing anything that directly addresses my question, since Palmar was town, why does DMB do what she did?
I'm not gonna argue she looks absolutely terrible yesterday, but it's mylo so I want to be certain of my vote when I place it. Rels please address why scum DMB does what she did when town Palmar was available for her to vote for and probably not end up in the spotlight the same way she is right now. Also does vivax flip change any of how you're reading?
I'm going to feel like I've committed a deep wound to my honor if I don't sheep Vivax like i said I would, especially after he died and isn't here to lead that lynch. Is the question, why didn't she push Palmar? My guess is that it was a play together with Jealous to appear like partners not really wanting to push each other. If that's true, that was really beautifully played
I was literally told by DP and Vivax that I basically am not allowed to push DMB. I've jumped through all y'all little hoops and still get scumread for it. Nice set-up.
Questions we should be asking ourselves are "Why was Palmar lynched over Jealous and DP?" I have the fortune of knowing it was TvTv? so it raises the question "was Palmar's death more valuable or viable to scum than DP's and why?"
With a 3-3-3 split and knowing that 2 town were on DP in myself and Vivax, if makes me wonder why just one more scum didn't want to make the switch. It would have been either TTSS or TTTS on DP (because DMB, while scummy af, is still officially a question mark). That means that even if DP flipped town and town decided to lynch everyone on the DP wagon in any order, it would be a guaranteed scum victory. However, scum wouldn't want to hammer DP in several circumstances which I'll explore tomorrow after I get some sleep and am not on my phone posting because i can't see both threads at once, but suffice to say there are a few scenarios and I think the ones where DMB is scum are more likely, but there is an argument for DP scum, too. For example, in some situations it would take two or three scum to hammer DP, but that would be too suspicious after Vivax made it 4-3-2, and that would be impossible if DMB was scum on DP in the first place and two of the scum were on me + Vivax
Anyway, I'll try to map it out tomorrow.
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and that would be impossible if DMB was scum on DP in the first place and two of the scum + Vivax* were on me.
^ EBWOP for clarity.
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Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow.
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On March 20 2024 20:07 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow. I think it is way more telling that there was 0 mafia on you in the end. They were all either on dp or palmar.
I am basically a guaranteed ML at this point after getting pushed for several days and scum lynching the people who SR me, so I think being spread or concentrated on one of the more prime lynches makes as much sense from an objective POV. But, assuming you're town, I can understand the WIFOM.
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On March 20 2024 16:03 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 15:48 Jealous wrote:
Ah see this is why I wanted to wait for tomorrow to compare actual names and not just numbers, because on me were town Vivax and Palmar at EoD, so if DMB and JAT are scum then it would have taken just JAT and one scum on Palmar to lynch town!DP. Still would have been sus af of course but anyway I'll map it out tomorrow. The whole scum team outs themselves doing that.
Exactly, hence "still would have been sus af."
One of the scenarios I was thinking about yesterday was "if all three scum are on a wagon that has four people, then their victory is still highly likely as long as there are viable ML targets [myself and potentially DMB]." For example, Palmar was lynched, but we are trying to lynch two people who were not on that ML wagon. If all 3 scum were on Palmar, lynching outside of this pool is a guaranteed win for scum.
So...
The more I look at the votes from yesterday, I find it very unlikely that DMB and DP can be on the same scum team. DMB has no reason to bus DP here, he was written off as a non-starter by Vivax, I wouldn't have switched if she didn't, neither would have Vivax.
We also know that DMB/Jealous/Vivax can't be a team for obvious reasons, even though the three of us set up the 3-3-3.
I'm going to be analyzing a few possibilities using the following format, so I'll introduce it here.
Names to the left are the lynch wagons. Names to the right are the voters. Green = Town, Yellow/Orange-ish yellow = Unknown, Red = Scum. Underlined = due to be lynched. This is how the game state is to an objective observer as of right now.
Here is how we arrived at 3-3-3 in the first place, just to set the stage:
+ Show Spoiler +^ Wagon on me is forming. ^ DP is the first to come off the wagon.^ And here we are, in 3-3-3.
Because I know that I'm town, I'm going to be using this foundation for analysis instead:
So, this is how the votes went from my POV:
+ Show Spoiler [Jealous POV] +Vivax votes for DP. DP votes for me. Iamp votes for Palmar. DP votes for Palmar. Vivax votes for Jealous.
Vivax' vote is functionally irrelevant and we know he is town now, so I will stop including it in the analysis going forward. What is of note, however, is that it took both iamp and DP to hammer Palmar over me. However, I can only be scum with them if I had previously been hammered by both of them also. In essence, Iamp set it up so that it was 3-3-3 again, and DP drove the nail home. Vivax voted for me, but no one switched. If you think I am scum, wouldn't iamp/DP have to be scum also?
Compare the town pattern, which doesn't make much sense to me:
+ Show Spoiler +
Or this scum pattern, which makes more sense to me:
+ Show Spoiler +
Again, unless DMB was following their instructions and voted DP to spread themselves out and sow chaos, she is unlikely to be part of this team IMO.
So again, why did DP come off my wagon and go to DP? Why would iamp and DP hammer Palmar over me in the 3-3-3? They basically set it up so that no single person switching, from any wagon to any other wagon, would have changed the outcome. That's controlling the wagon. And they do it in a way that seems almost coordinated, throwing some obfuscation in there by DP voting for me first. Could it be to set up an ML victory?
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"However, I can only be scum with them if I had previously been hammered by both of them also."
^ Bussed
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On March 20 2024 03:16 iamperfection wrote:So are you saying my vote on day 4 or 5 mattered?
It provably did.
(Link addition was mine for context)
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On March 18 2024 10:44 iamperfection wrote:
im voting palmar
Absolutely 0 justification.
On March 18 2024 10:50 iamperfection wrote:
whatever everyone can blame me if im wrong about palmar i guess.
Game isnt good for me hapa is right.
"Are you saying my vote in d4/5 mattered?"
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On March 21 2024 04:46 iamperfection wrote:
I have the answer jealous. I voted palmar because I thought he was scum.
So then why were you on me as several other people piled onto me, and only switched off of me when it became this?
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On March 18 2024 10:28 die_meatbaby wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2024 10:25 DarthPunk wrote:On March 18 2024 10:11 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 18 2024 10:07 Vivax wrote:On March 18 2024 10:02 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 18 2024 09:55 Vivax wrote:On March 18 2024 09:49 iamperfection wrote:On March 18 2024 09:47 Vivax wrote:
I don‘t know if I can survive more of this game without getting put into a straitjacket.
Maybe I should do what others do and mislynch someone. Stop being so ambitious about the game.
Let Jello live? I‘d have proven my point anyway so what do you want to do. Lynch Palmar. He did say something super scummy earlier he called me a good player i genuinely don't think he believes that lol. I'll keep my vote here but I'll stop fighting and be mad if you change your mind. It was a good battle, I'm spent. I think I prefer harmony now. did you read his old towngame where I posted a link? did you compare that? can you untunnel J for like 10 minutes and finally do something for this town and not working like our rl mayjor??? Compare this this one old game with this now. Tell me I am wrong! Tell me pls why I am wrong? This is basiclly the same how he plays here The only way for me to untunnel the way you‘d like me to is by tunneling DP instead and I‘m not going to start doing that one hour before DL. Grack already told us he‘s scum either way great that means you did not read this old game with a 7 page filter and and the game had only about 90 pages. But okey don´t look up his meta. Sorry I forgot a major can not get his ass to take 10 minutes to read this one game of him. I hope you are right with J. We can not misslynch another town 3 times in raw. I DIDNT PLAY IN THE GAME YOU LINKED do you get nervous now while i am voting on you? nobody is voting with me. So sadly you are still alive until the next lynch. read the thread!
At this point I already posted that I am voting DP, voted DP, and DP had seen it and responded.
So either you all think that DMB does a classic spree of DMB-posting and doesn't realize her wagon is taking off, or we're scum together and for some reason she is just acting like she doesn't see it. I think the latter doesn't make much sense, why even draw attention to it?
In other words, does it seem likely to you that this is a coordinated effort between a scum team that sucked in poor Vivax and somehow led to iamp/DP hammering Palmar? There can't be four mafia.
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^ To everyone who still thinks that I can be scum with DMB, not you iamp, you already addressed this.
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On March 18 2024 10:44 DarthPunk wrote:
All you lot are doing by trying to lynch me here is throwing the game because now out of the three of us mafia can pick the townie last minute.
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On March 21 2024 05:43 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 04:46 iamperfection wrote:
I have the answer jealous. I voted palmar because I thought he was scum. This is the same for me.
So then why were you voting me initially? Why did you switch from me to Palmar when it was 6:3 -> 5:4?
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This just makes sense to me. It's exactly how today has been shaping up.
Lynch Palmar. Make it Jealous vs. DMB the next day and it's an easy W if DMB is town, even though neither is responsible for his ML. Iamp and DP move their votes around to save DP.
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On March 21 2024 06:57 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:54 DarthPunk wrote:On March 21 2024 06:50 justanothertownie wrote:
I mean, the iamp dp idea is frightening but I don't think that is very likely. Part of me just Thinks jealous is trying to derail his partners wagon here. It’s weird how he kind of called dmb town. Yeah, I am also not sure that thought progress makes sense to me. The whole premise of "people who hammer need to mafia" is quite questionable. As are all conclusions drawn from it.
It's just one possibility, I plan on doing more but work is demanding today.
It's one of the first I explored because it is indeed scary as mentioned above, and if it is the case, the game is shaping up almost exactly in their favor. Hammer Palmar, receive 0% of the heat for it, say "I am never voting iamp" and then ride off into the sunset on free ML on me or potential ML on DMB.
My feeling still is that DMB is objectively scummy, that her reads flip on me makes 0 fucking sense, the multiple slips/near-slips, and that stuff like the German thing/all of the dumbtells is just too much. However, it is counterbalanced by my having made basically the same exact "mistake" with CopCake. There is undeniably a non-zero chance that DMB is town, and if that is the case, then the game will have played out exactly as scum would want. And who was the scum that set up this situation, then? That's what this first proposed analysis was about.
And again, I see almost no way that DMB and DP are on a team together, unless their plan to spread scum around when she went to DP. However, around that time, Vivax was openly thirsting to lynch DP IIRC, so that would have been a really dumb plan. So, I find it more likely that DMB and DP can't both be scum.
I know that I'm not scum with DMB and that's the theory that several others have been pushing, so I know that town is going into an objectively wrong direction, too. That's why I felt like I had to do something, because I know that if town sentiment is "lynch DMB or Jealous, then lynch the other," that is an autoloss for town.
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On March 21 2024 06:57 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 06:54 DarthPunk wrote:On March 21 2024 06:50 justanothertownie wrote:
I mean, the iamp dp idea is frightening but I don't think that is very likely. Part of me just Thinks jealous is trying to derail his partners wagon here. It’s weird how he kind of called dmb town. Yeah, I am also not sure that thought progress makes sense to me. The whole premise of "people who hammer need to mafia" is quite questionable. As are all conclusions drawn from it.
Also, I mean, does this movement from town make sense to you?
In theory it could be three scum just eating popcorn, but that would then have to be (assuming you are town) DMB, Rels, and MZ. Does that team sound plausible to you?
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On March 21 2024 07:19 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 07:15 Jealous wrote:On March 21 2024 06:57 justanothertownie wrote:On March 21 2024 06:54 DarthPunk wrote:On March 21 2024 06:50 justanothertownie wrote:
I mean, the iamp dp idea is frightening but I don't think that is very likely. Part of me just Thinks jealous is trying to derail his partners wagon here. It’s weird how he kind of called dmb town. Yeah, I am also not sure that thought progress makes sense to me. The whole premise of "people who hammer need to mafia" is quite questionable. As are all conclusions drawn from it. Also, I mean, does this movement from town make sense to you? In theory it could be three scum just eating popcorn, but that would then have to be (assuming you are town) DMB, Rels, and MZ. Does that team sound plausible to you? I wouldn't call that eating popcorn considering the time in which this happened. Also, I really do not know why you think iamp and dp have to be of the same alignment.
I mean, the remaining four players are the only ones who didn't change their vote, and none were potential lynch targets. So, that's basically eating popcorn.
Okay, so what alignments do you think make sense with this vote movement?
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