Winter Warfare Mafia

On December 10 2023 20:04 Trfel wrote:
This is particularly interesting, didn't you literally call Sandroba's first post "meh"?

On December 10 2023 19:56 marvellosity wrote:
Why aren’t you just outright omgusing DP here Trfel?

I know that’s what I’d be doing in your spot

On December 10 2023 19:52 marvellosity wrote:
Jeez, so srs

On December 10 2023 20:13 marvellosity wrote:
If I came In the the thread first and had called out sandro’s post, I would think it was insane DP was calling me on it.

Just sayin.

On December 10 2023 20:14 DarthPunk wrote:


What kind of substance are you expecting? he literally posted the 10th post of the game?

On December 10 2023 21:41 Vivax wrote:
Palmar a bit too sure of himself in tone for my liking. Like he's got somebody lined up to be gifted a pair of shiny concrete boots, maybe a weak teammate under threat (which could be sandro).

He's very conscious of the Trfel/Sandro dichotomy here but not as motivated to deliver much explanation of his own as he is to appear motivated to lynch into it.

On December 10 2023 21:16 DarthPunk wrote:
It just seems to me that you came roaring out of the gate with a huge case, based on some nitpicking really early in the thread, and you end up going nowhere on anything which is the essence of what the case you wrote on Sandro in the first place.

Now fair enough, sandroba hasn't been around so you haven't been able to pursue things further.

But your level of aggression just didn't really match with what was going on in the thread at the time, which you kind of acknowledge at the start of said post.



It's almost like an apology, like what were you waiting for?

And now you are kind of backtracking, which also doesn't match with the way you lead out originally.

it's all quite jarring to me.

On December 10 2023 22:40 marvellosity wrote:

Is it though

On December 10 2023 22:50 marvellosity wrote:

… do you remember his play?

On December 10 2023 23:03 marvellosity wrote:
What I’m saying is his posting so far is pretty normal. He doesn’t have to be town of course but it’s well within normal tolerance.

On December 11 2023 01:24 marvellosity wrote:

Is that supposed to change something?

On December 11 2023 01:29 marvellosity wrote:
It’s baseless so there’s not a lot I can say about it really

On December 11 2023 01:29 marvellosity wrote:
It’s baseless so there’s not a lot I can say about it really

On December 11 2023 01:34 marvellosity wrote:

As in literally there’s not an explanation.

On December 11 2023 01:36 marvellosity wrote:

On what sorry? There’s 2 votes on you and 1 on me and I don’t understand any of them

On December 10 2023 21:18 Palmar wrote:
Mafia don’t get impatient to post their trash takes in the thread DP. They’d rather not post them.

On December 11 2023 01:52 marvellosity wrote:

Just kept posting. Not a lot more than that tbh

On December 11 2023 02:36 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Vivax do you have any thoughts on this?

On December 11 2023 05:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:

why is marv mafia?

On December 11 2023 06:35 Trfel wrote:
I think at this point I'd be okay with lynching Koshi (if he is going to play like this), and potentially okay with lynching DarthPunk. Sandroba's recent set of posts were more interesting to me, I didn't necessarily agree with everything he was saying but it helps me to put together his mindset/approach. Holyflare's point that he's focusing on defending himself from presumed incorrect accusations instead of actually finding mafia or being productive is strong, now that he's actually shared suspicions I look forward to him coming back tomorrow. Vivax I could definitely see being mafia but I don't think I want to lynch him as much as Koshi or DarthPunk at this point.

On December 11 2023 07:17 DarthPunk wrote:
Rayn before you go. Is koshi mafia or town if you had to choose.

On December 11 2023 07:34 marvellosity wrote:

Not sure I agree, I can follow his thoughts

On December 11 2023 01:49 marvellosity wrote:

sandro for obvious reasons

Didn’t like DP’s attack on Trfel nor Trfel’s subsequent defence of those posts, but maybe DP is being DP (I think we established this year that we don’t think the same) and Trfel has been tenacious.

So maybe Vivax, primarily because I don’t find his posts very interesting

On December 11 2023 03:37 Holyflare wrote:


Convuluted af reasons really.

I thought Sandroba was quite likely to be mafia and Palmar made this post:

+ Show Spoiler +

Implicating that Palmar was ready to bus sandro because the reasoning here is extremely tenuous imo. I don't believe that palmar thinks the post is good but simultaneously uses it to discredit sandro. Maybe he would but I don't think so. It feels more like thread influence has made palmar take the read and use it as his own stance for slam and then try and double down on the sandro read.

Reading into this and then seeing rayn post some drivel like:
+ Show Spoiler +

kinda made me think that maybe I was doing palmar a disservice and he could come up with something like that and rayn was just TMIing palmar as town because I don't think anything palmar said should be really conclusive for palmar's alignment in the slightest, especially not to this degree that rayn was talking about

he's since given more elaborated reasoning for it like:

+ Show Spoiler +


Which I guess is somewhat accetable but it's still a really silly reason to base the read on that.

---

Think I'm more leaning on going on vivax atm though because he's playing way too normal and trfel is right that his post to sandroba is self-fulfilling. Not really sure, not that into the game atm.

Marv looks ok, trfel looks good imo, DP is (?) but leaning on the side of ok. Slam is kinda just chilling so I don't really know what to read into that but I think he's had enough defenders in the thread over really mediocre points that game state might be pointing to him being town too.

Vivax, Koshi, chez, sandro, meatbaby and palmar is a good list of LHF to get through for the time being. Maybe throw in a rayn in there but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. Palmar and rayn probably the weakest in being in this list so will see what they get up to while I work throw the others.

On December 11 2023 07:40 marvellosity wrote:

I don’t see the point in talking about this yet. Of course he plays anti-town.

In 24h if he plays the same still it’s more interesting. As he will be playing against his wincon if town which is just mega shitty and deserves a policy lynch

On December 11 2023 07:44 marvellosity wrote:

Reword please Slam? What are you saying or asking me?

On December 11 2023 07:44 marvellosity wrote:

Reword please Slam? What are you saying or asking me?

On December 11 2023 07:48 marvellosity wrote:

Still don’t understand, but I was catching up a bunch of pages and it was a lot of DP Trfel. Which I’ve still not talked about. So I still don’t know what’s going on tbh

On December 11 2023 07:52 marvellosity wrote:

Why didn’t I mention what?

I can’t say I’m enjoying this exchange, I’m just getting confused :p

On December 11 2023 07:53 marvellosity wrote:

?????

On December 11 2023 07:52 DarthPunk wrote:
Slam is beast mode here WTF.

On December 11 2023 07:56 marvellosity wrote:

I really don’t

On December 11 2023 08:05 Holyflare wrote:
My thinking is we should just vote koshi and force him to actually do things instead of pretending to do things and waiting 24 hours.

On December 11 2023 08:11 DarthPunk wrote:


I'll tell you after the game if you want. Or if I try to lynch you, but we aren't in that territory atm.

On December 11 2023 07:14 DarthPunk wrote:


Trefel has me in his top two lynch candidates, why would he do that and then talk to me like I'm town.


- Trefel formed a "scum" (without actually calling me scum) read on me based on 'lack of thread presence'

- Trefel then acknowledged that it was the middle of the night and that may explain the lack of thread presence

-Trefel then proceeds to try and get several others to post their thoughts on me

-Trefel then says I am suspicious based on lack of thread presence (which should be discounted based on timezones) and the fact I called sandroba town.

-Trefel then says Sandroba looks better based on exactly the reasoning I gave for not finding Sandroba suspicious.

Basically his justifications for his top 2 lynch candidate read on me is farcical.


Regarding Holyflare:

Did he actually try and justify that vote on you from the start of the game? Cause that does look bad.

Trefel then says I am suspicious based on lack of thread presence (which should be discounted based on timezones) and the fact I called sandroba town.

On December 11 2023 06:30 Trfel wrote:
Two things. First is that after you unvoted me you seemed content to have no strong suspicion or push or thread presence, though I may be underestimating the impact of it being nighttime in Australia. Second thing is that some of your reasoning really doesn't line up. For example, what raynpelikoneet mentioned, your reason to townread sandroba being that he was suspicious of marvellosity. He didn't engage marvellosity or push for his lynch, he's wanting to lynch Vivax, it's easy to say "this person is mafia" and not back it up or push it at all.

On December 11 2023 20:21 marvellosity wrote:
I think it’s a terrible case and parts of it make me suspicious - for example if I have a chess match, I will say so as either alignment, I have never lied about this sort of thing as either alignment. DP should know that.

I can’t really be arsed to try to attack DP for this (or other dumb bits) though as I’ll just get accused of omgus. You guys can draw your own conclusions.

On December 11 2023 20:21 marvellosity wrote:
I think it’s a terrible case and parts of it make me suspicious - for example if I have a chess match, I will say so as either alignment, I have never lied about this sort of thing as either alignment. DP should know that.

I can’t really be arsed to try to attack DP for this (or other dumb bits) though as I’ll just get accused of omgus. You guys can draw your own conclusions.

On December 11 2023 20:16 marvellosity wrote:
Skimmed the whole thing. Only thing I want to say is re: Vivax.

The 6th post of my filter (p1 somewhere anyway) is asking Trfel about Vivax, and not far down the 2nd page I am calling Vivax out. This was yesterday.

Let’s not pretend I am suddenly randomly thinking Vivax is mafia out of nowhere, eh?

On December 11 2023 04:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am gonna take a little break. My feet have been cold for like 3 days because of shitty socks, and i just want to go to sauna now that i can. Will be back in an hour.

If anyone would like to have an opinion on Holyflare, and especially on what i said on him, i would appreciate.

On December 11 2023 21:07 marvellosity wrote:
I mean if it’s Vivax and sandro and I’m gonna get lynched for the conclusions everyone else arrived at, so be it…

I’m low key more suspicious of HF for agreeing with DP than I am DP

On December 11 2023 21:38 Holyflare wrote:


I don't think this is as strong a point as you're making it out to be btw. He says he can't make much of Rayn's points about me and then denies rayn calling me mafia by saying he can follow my thought process (something you say you use to see if someone is townie too). Context is important here.

First vote on mafia probably.

On December 11 2023 23:26 marvellosity wrote:

Then why aren’t you voting for sandro, if all combinations involve him? It’s obviously the correct play in the world you’re describing.

On December 11 2023 22:03 marvellosity wrote:
By the way Palmar, or anyone who cares to read. The reason for my responses to DP being low energy is that basically every game we played this year DP has made a mega case on me pointing out inconsistencies and incongruities (that aren’t true) and twisting my entire filter into a scummy narrative.

The thing is, if he does this to me every time we play, sometimes I’m town, sometimes I’m mafia, but DP is only right sometimes because I am sometimes mafia. A broken clock is right twice a day.

It is tiring hearing the same case over and over, as nothing in it ever makes me mafia, he has no idea how to read me, he just makes the same case every game. It’s tedious that that becomes the focal point of my attention, rather than happily bumbling along with my suspicions on sandro and Vivax.

On December 12 2023 00:01 marvellosity wrote:

I have no need to engage with you as at the moment you haven’t given me a single reason to think you’re town

On December 11 2023 20:42 DarthPunk wrote:
If you can't be bothered reading the big post (you really fucking should)

This is a snapshot. a pretty egregious case of incongruence:

Rayn asks for an opinion on holyflare. Marv is.... Non-commital.





Two unrelated posts later.


7B


Marv thinks holyflare is town, or at least not mafia because he can follow his thoughts. Why does Marv not say that in the first place? Why does he say nothing at all when it is clear he in fact has something to say?

between those posts, holyflare had not posted a thing.

On December 11 2023 16:57 Trfel wrote:
I'm asleep.

I think Vivax is the best chance at mafia. His play is very underwhelming and uninspired, in contrast to his town play where he is capable of being a very strong player. He also seems to not care about his relatively poor performance/lack of investmemt.

Sandroba and Koshi might be worth considering but I think I like lynching Vivax more by a decent margin.

On December 11 2023 23:40 marvellosity wrote:

What do I need to spend energy on?

You’ve come to the same conclusions as me (except on me). So I’m unsure what you propose I should be doing exactly.

On December 12 2023 00:50 marvellosity wrote:

It’s a bit over wordy maybe, but so is most of his filter.

Out of curiosity then, how would you have expected him to place a vote?

On December 12 2023 01:22 Vivax wrote:


And what of the two is he in your opinion?

It's two different types of kicks you are talking about, you phrased it as just one type. Because it was phrased for mafia Palmar getting me mislynched but you have a townread on him. You're keeping it deliberately ambiguous now because you just gave away that you had the impression of a one-sided kick as if you knew his alignment.

On December 12 2023 02:18 marvellosity wrote:

Can I just say, Hf, this is a really icky post. And you should know why.

On December 12 2023 01:56 marvellosity wrote:
Also, re: sandro.

He asked me to engage, and gave me some bleh nonsense about not liking Trfel’s vote on him, but could not come up with a way he would expect Trfel to vote as a townie.

In his filter though, he does quote a post from Trfel and goes to quite some length to explain how townie a post it is.

I don’t believe he goes from the first post explaining to why Trfel is likely town, to a complete nothing post shovelling suspicion on Trfel.

I would provide the 2 quotes but as usual these days I am not in a laptop so it’s too difficult. But if you’re reading this dear town, please do take a look and see what I mean.

On December 12 2023 03:06 marvellosity wrote:

Are you nuts? You haven’t explained in any way how the post you quoted was different from the rest of Trfel’s filter…?!

On December 12 2023 06:47 marvellosity wrote:
Was hoping to come home to more than 5 posts tbh, bit dull.

On December 12 2023 06:50 Palmar wrote:


It was a good case, almost as good as my oneliner. No need to feel discouraged.

On December 12 2023 06:46 marvellosity wrote:

Agree, less… something than previous games. Dunno what.

On December 12 2023 06:47 marvellosity wrote:

I have? Do tell.

On December 12 2023 06:56 marvellosity wrote:

I think of Vivax almost exactly what you just said. Tbh I don’t think it’s 100% but I don’t think the lynch is changing at this point. I know I said I’d consolidate, but tbh I won’t, if there are shenannies anywhere I wouldn’t mind them on sandro. Of course that also leaves shenannies open on me, but that’s a fun dice roll.

I don’t know how to remove my expectations of sandro. I go back to his first post, and he waffles hilariously on Slam, and it’s all just so bland. All his posts since have been mostly fine, he’s an astute person so he can make decent sounding posts. I don’t see any drive to solve the game, I really don’t know what he was doing with Trfel, I don’t understand his read progression on him generally.

I dunno, feels like he’s ‘analysing’ things but without any endpoint. Which (my expectations or not) I don’t think is very townie.

On December 12 2023 02:57 sandroba wrote:
Or maybe I just suck while thinking I'm onto something and expecting you feel the same but actually you are just right and good while I'm bad? A harder pill to swallow but I guess could be true

On December 12 2023 07:14 sandroba wrote:
@marv waffling on slam is the whole reason you think I'm suspicious? At that point in the thread, we only had very few posts and I did the best with what I had to get some alignment discussion going, while trying to be transparent with my thought process. Even after this whole day I would probably waffle on Slam if I'm being honest as I find him and chezinu pretty much wild cards.
Just seems like a low-effort crutch what you are doing to justify your position on me.

On December 12 2023 00:45 Palmar wrote:


shush the town people are talking.

Be a good boy and keep your vote on Vivax.

On December 11 2023 05:11 Holyflare wrote:


I don't think you moved the game in a pro-town manner. Good observations are easy for anyone to make. A pro-town manner would have been outright saying those things and seeing how people reacted to that information and then compounding those reads and coming up with more reads. You just put out reads, second guessed yourself and left the options open. What did that achieve? I can only go on what you've posted and base things off common patterns. If you aren't mafia then post your way out of it and get me to not think it anymore, pretty simple.

On December 11 2023 05:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:

I think you should start raising suspicions, or at least having reads, in case you're town, but then again i don't know if i need to tell you this.

People suspect you, if you're town, get over it, stop defending and start producing something of substance (because people suspect you as you don't produce anything of substance -- right or wrong)

On December 12 2023 16:39 marvellosity wrote:

Be better please. We haven’t got enough ML for a stupid crusade on to me.

On December 12 2023 16:34 marvellosity wrote:
People thinking I’m mafia for not enough investment?

Bitch please.

On December 12 2023 16:45 marvellosity wrote:
I am going to have to ride with DP as my townie here, which is always a little unfortunate, else I don’t know how to navigate this game now.

On December 12 2023 16:59 DarthPunk wrote:
Did anyone else feel the shockwave from palmars credibility collapsing from an all time high, right in front of our eyes 😂

On December 12 2023 18:12 marvellosity wrote:
I’m really not mafia, Palmar. And you need to understand this if we are going to win or town are going to lose.

Can you explain some more about Slam for me please?

I understood your point about the smiley question that gave you a townread early on, but I have concerns.

I’m struggling that Slam believes I was assuming Koshi was town in that little drama that went down.

Also, and I know this is very self centred, there’s a post Slam made where he said he could not ‘find any reason to scumread sandro’ (I am paraphrasing). Slam always pays attention to what I say, I find it hard to believe he brushes me under the carpet that easily.

On December 12 2023 18:18 marvellosity wrote:
Re: DMB. I have been thinking about her.

She was really looking forward to playing mafia, and actually I can really believe that she posted that stuff about you being a god but having her own reasons to lynch Vivax. I feel like this is a level of fun she could have as a scum player.

But if sandro is mafia I don’t think it makes sense that DMB is mafia. She started hard pushing against the lynch. If sandro is town, that would fit into the DMB having fun as mafia.

I just don’t think it’s the likely explanation atm.

On December 12 2023 18:15 marvellosity wrote:

And actually I had really, really good reasons for sandro lynch that are in my filter.

And you’re right, I did push it too late. But I was happy with the Vivax lynch right up to near the end, which is when I started pushing my sandro stuff more. It really is as simple as that.

On December 12 2023 18:15 marvellosity wrote:

And actually I had really, really good reasons for sandro lynch that are in my filter.

And you’re right, I did push it too late. But I was happy with the Vivax lynch right up to near the end, which is when I started pushing my sandro stuff more. It really is as simple as that.

On December 12 2023 18:25 marvellosity wrote:

Also I have long made my peace that I am way better at reading you than you are me.

On December 12 2023 18:45 DarthPunk wrote:
I wonder if trfel would open with a bus on his own teammate.

That whole thing was really weird and forced.

And then it kind of disappeared. Like for how aggro trfel was at the start on sandro, he dropped that whole thing and then he dropped the stuff with me too.

It’s almost like all the proactivity at the start ended up with nothing.

And at the end he just flipped onto vivax.

On December 12 2023 02:47 sandroba wrote:

I quoted a post I would 100% expect you to agree on and find it suspicious. Nobody else had mentioned that post and I was expecting you to have some commentary, but instead you just dismissed it and asked me something irrelevant like what I think Trfle would post like if he was a towny voting. I dunno, like something I read and don't think sounds forced? I'm not comparing it to an imaginary trfel post, just reading it along with his filter and feeling it's off. Not sure why you would ask me to imagine a townie post instead of reflecting on the actual post itself.

On December 12 2023 02:57 sandroba wrote:
Or maybe I just suck while thinking I'm onto something and expecting you feel the same but actually you are just right and good while I'm bad? A harder pill to swallow but I guess could be true

On December 12 2023 20:13 marvellosity wrote:
Can you actually explain this Trfel partner slip thing to me like I’m 5?

With quotes if possible?

On December 12 2023 20:49 marvellosity wrote:
Honestly for me its a bit of a wash as I don’t think that’s what makes sandro mafia (or town)

On December 12 2023 00:19 sandroba wrote:


Trfel I had been leaning town from the burst of engagement, but this post really set off some alarms for me.

Vivax mentioned that he was weary from the bottom feeders on his wagon, and if I was town Vivax I would definitely be all over this post in particular. The wording, tone and reasoning on this post don't seem to match the rest of his filter.
Seems like a formal way to justify a vote, looks like it's fabricated and a chore.

On December 11 2023 08:31 marvellosity wrote:

Lean town on both

On December 12 2023 23:02 marvellosity wrote:
Like what I remember of Hf is that he makes big, long, convincing cases and towns find it really hard to argue with him over the long haul. He pushes the mafia agenda and it’s really hard to stop because he’s convincing.

Either Hf is mafia and is ecstatic about how the game is going and therefore not pushing anything very hard, or maybe he’s town and just bumbling along like i was trying to do before people kept telling me I was mafia.

On December 11 2023 03:51 Trfel wrote:
I believe this is the post in question.

Raynpelikoneet, other than the above question though, can you help me understand why you are so confident Holyflare is mafia?

On December 13 2023 00:04 marvellosity wrote:

Eh?

On December 13 2023 00:10 marvellosity wrote:

I mean, I do love this song :p

On December 13 2023 00:11 marvellosity wrote:

No, actually when I was mafia with him he did make a lot of nonsensical, silly posts. It was a good distraction technique. He even talked about it in the maf discord

On December 13 2023 01:07 marvellosity wrote:

Kinda yeah.

He’s absolutely capable of shitting towniness though, so let’s see if that happens

On December 13 2023 02:05 marvellosity wrote:

Why?

Who does Slam mason if mafia?

On December 13 2023 05:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Also the only person he ever tries to really get to vote for vivax is sandroba, and sandroba is also his scumread. no other people he personally advises to vote for vivax (aside from marv once).

Palmar is it in your opinion that best play to convince people to lynch the dude you want, is to only try to get your mafia reads to vote on them, and noone else?

On December 13 2023 05:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why is Palmar top 1 contributor in his list when Palmar just lead a mislynch and DP top 2 was probably on mafia sandroba?

On December 13 2023 07:02 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Or like, after all, why is it an important list when the top 1 contributor was definitely wrong?

On December 13 2023 07:06 marvellosity wrote:

I do agree with Palmar here, rayn. I don’t understand what you’re getting at.

If Palmar is somehow mafia, it’s not because he made a contribution list