EPTOn November 30 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1?
Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1?
Explain this then Hapa?
[N]A Mostly Normal Game of Mafia - Page 48
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
Explain this then Hapa? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:16 Trfel wrote: As for point 2, that requires mafia being extremely smart.... I don't know if mafia is that smart  I suppose they could have assumed that I would jailkeep you again, thus roleblocking you, but that seems risky. All I am saying is that you can piece it together from my filter. What is the only role in the entire blue-list that cannot be used as mayor? It's not that hard to put together, and you don't have to be that smart to put it together. Also, why wouldn't the assumption that I be "saved" again be unlikely from a mafia perspective? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
You are misreading my post. I do not believe I had any chance of killing Vivax on N1. I'm saying that if you look at my filter objectively from the start of N2, who is my likely target for a bomb? I believe it is Vivax. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:37 Hapahauli wrote: If mafia chooses not to roleblock me on N2, they are not going to shoot me, because from their perspective, I am still fairly likely (given my filter) to bomb Vivax, who I believe is mafia. So you agree that mafia should have RB and Killed you? | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Then who did the RB on Trfel? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:42 Hapahauli wrote: You are misreading my post. I do not believe I had any chance of killing Vivax on N1. I'm saying that if you look at my filter objectively from the start of N2, who is my likely target for a bomb? I believe it is Vivax. no but you are saying this now: Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax) As a thing why mafia wouldnt shoot you N2. And it makes no sense. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:43 Tictock wrote: So you agree that mafia should have RB and Killed you? I believe mafia had two reasonable plays: 1) They can RB/Kill me if they think I am difficult to lynch in MYLO; 2) If they think I'm not a "dangerous" blue role, they can try to snipe the bodyguard or another blue role. Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:46 Tictock wrote: And if you are going to say, well mafia didn't RB me D1 it was Trfel Then who did the RB on Trfel? Trfel is pretty much confirmed town here.. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:46 Tictock wrote: And if you are going to say, well mafia didn't RB me D1 it was Trfel Then who did the RB on Trfel? Mafia Roleblocker obviously, unless another JK wants to claim. If Mafia RB'd a VT on D1, that VT doesn't receive a notification. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:46 Hapahauli wrote: I believe mafia had two reasonable plays: 1) They can RB/Kill me if they think I am difficult to lynch in MYLO; 2) If they think I'm not a "dangerous" blue role, they can try to snipe the bodyguard or another blue role. Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge. Do you think mafia has no rb? | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: no but you are saying this now: Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax) As a thing why mafia wouldnt shoot you N2. And it makes no sense. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: no but you are saying this now: Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax) As a thing why mafia wouldnt shoot you N2. And it makes no sense. Assume the following: 1) <Player> has posted suspicions on two players: Jock and Vivax. 2) Jock has died, leaving Vivax. 3) Vivax is mafia. 4) It is now N2, and mafia needs to decide on night actions. 5) Mafia has reason to believe that <Player> is a Mad Hatter. As mafia, do you risk shooting <player>? I'll admit, it relies on a lot of assumptions. I think the points re: Trfel's confirmed save on me N1 deterring a shot N2 is a much stronger argument. But that's the "logic" behind my statement. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
If you are actually interested in an answer, I have nothing to hide. Explain it in one post. Like I'm 5. | ||
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43270 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:52 raynpelikoneet wrote: No your defense relies on vivax being mafia or? I have no idea what I'm "defending" against, because it feels like I'm answering a moving target with questions on it. I was asked roughly "why am I alive"? There are several plausible explanations: 1) I have not been active, therefore, mafia may not percieve me as a threat; 2) It was confirmed that I was JK'd Night 1. A mafia team (that doesn't include me) may feel very skittish about shooting into a target that was confirmed "saved" on N1, especially since the consequence of missing the shot means that town gets an extra mislynch. THIS IS PROBABLY WHY SHOCKEYY WAS SHOT, because there is no chance of him being saved. 3) If Vivax is mafia and mafia believes I'm a Mad Hatter, it's risky, since I spend a good majority of my filter attacking Vivax. Honestly, ignore 3 and focus on 2. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On November 30 2020 09:54 raynpelikoneet wrote: Why do you assume Trfel is town blue? My general profile of Trfel is as a pretty passive player. I believe that carries over into his scum-play. I do not see a passive player making a fake claim like this. It is rife with unknowns and is not a "passive" play. From his perspective, he could very well be forcing himself into a binary "Trfel v hapa" lynch situation. | ||
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