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On April 12 2020 16:14 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2020 16:09 Chezinu wrote:On April 12 2020 15:20 Trfel wrote:You know what, I've changed my mind, I'm voting for ShoCkeyy. For all of the resistance to give reads and the confidence to play his own style, there are simply too many contradictions to ignore. He had reads. Then he said he wouldn't have reads until the night kill or the day 2 lynch. Then when pressured he produced reads. Huh? Makes no sense. After the day 1 lynch, two of his top townreads (Chezinu and BloodyC0bbler) became his lynch pile. I don't know why, it seems like he was just following thread sentiment (especially on BloodyC0bbler), making up scumreads. I could babble forever about ShoCkeyy's filter and play, but it feels really motivated by what's happening in the thread, motivated by pressure. Not coming from a town player who is actually trying to figure things out. And that makes me think he is mafia. Yes, mafia didn't night kill. Yes, Chezinu didn't post at all night 2. But ShoCkeyy's only night 2 posts were very early into night 2. It's quite possible that ShoCkeyy is mafia and didn't submit a night kill and then didn't come back for a while and it was randomized for him. On the lack of night kill alone, it does point to Chezinu more, but I definitely think ShoCkeyy is still a possibility. I could see it going either way honestly  Not very confident this game. It's entirely my bad for laziness/lack of activity/struggling to read these last few players. But right now I am more confident in ShoCkeyy being mafia than I am in Chezinu being mafia. Will try to be back before the deadline tomorrow to talk about it and/or change votes if needed. What about Hapa? He defended me and said that my heart <3's people and make them laugh. Then today... he turned on me as if I bussed Jock... If I were to bus, Jock would have volunteered. The question is... did Jock volunteer or did Hapa lynch Jock out of self-preservation? I don't really think it's Hapahauli, it's possible, but it would be some pretty brilliant mafia play if it is him. Hapahauli posted his reasons for lynching Jockmcplop quite early on, it felt like a genuine push to me. You really think Hapahauli is mafia?
It’s quite possible based on this convo
On April 10 2020 03:07 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2020 03:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 10 2020 03:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Also how have I lacked in reads? All my reads are there, and I think I've committed very well to my reads. I am not saying you're lacking in reads, maybe i used bad wording but you seem "clueless" because you had no idea on what to do on the EOD1 and while that's SUPPOSED to look fucking terrible on you, it doesn't look that way to me, and the only thin gyou have seemed quite sure about is that BC is mafia N1-D2. Sorry that was for Trfel, but my clueless question was coming up. I wanted to ask, after you cased Jock, I'm assuming it happened after he voted for me, did Hap jump on the Jock wagon? I went back to the beginning of the thread, but I got a massive headache just trying to think about the beginning of the game again after BC turned up town. Like that shit stressed me the fuck out.
On April 10 2020 03:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Yeah he cased him about half an hour after i had my discussion with jock.
After I did check, and yes, Hap did case Jock after the convo. Hap decided to case Jock right after he insta voted for me. Rayn was fine with lynching Hap, but was fine with lynching Jock too.
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I’ll be around for a few more minutes before placing a placeholder vote till morning, cause I definitely want to talk this out.
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On April 12 2020 16:45 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I’ll be around for a few more minutes before placing a placeholder vote till morning, cause I definitely want to talk this out.
Save yourself ShoCkeyy!
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Mr. Truffles or Hapa?
Ooooo
How about you rank us one to three! Who us most scummy?
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Hap in all honesty. He was willing to double lynch, suggested self lynch to get a second town kill.
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We know only one of us is mafia. So if we all create a list like this:
1. Hapa
2. Mr. Truffles
3. Shocking
We can use mathematics and statistics to find the answer. As easy as counting all the jelly beans in a jar.
Hmm.. maybe this should be my Day 1 ploy...
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But we aren't all independent observers..
We influence each other..
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What if Mr. Truffles double rolled mafia..?
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On April 12 2020 16:51 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Hap in all honesty. He was willing to double lynch, suggested self lynch to get a second town kill.
If Rayn was willing to lynch, and I had my first vote on him, my gut says it has to be Hap. This Chez vote coming from him today feels odd because at one point he says you were town.
On April 07 2020 01:53 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2020 01:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Of course you don't care since two townies is most likely to get lynched. Great job giving yourself up. No no no no you don't get to run away from this. How does any of this make any fucking sense. Mafia-hapa is giving himself up because he and Jock are town?
Also just so you know, Haps third post in the game was the Jock case.
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On April 12 2020 16:54 Chezinu wrote:
What if Mr. Truffles double rolled mafia..?
Is see it as a possibility due to his play style this game is familiar.
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On April 06 2020 01:39 Hapahauli wrote:@ JockShow nested quote +On April 05 2020 22:42 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 22:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 05 2020 22:37 Jockmcplop wrote:
You can do better than that rayn lol.
Ask yourself this, what purpose does me voting for rels or hap serve town right now?
I really don't want to have explain every little thing. I asked and i got a conclusion of "why would you vote for outside of your top 2 scumreads in a game where there is 2 scum?". Doesnt really matter who plays or who is playing or not. That's an absolutely terrible conclusion to come to. It would make sense ONLY if you believe that the only reason to vote for someone is to kill them. "Pressure votes" are certainly valid. Why does town-Jock not want to pressure his top scumread ("mafia-hapa") with a vote? Why does town-Jock not want to pressure Rels? How did you arrive at Shockey vs. the other candidates? Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 21:15 Jockmcplop wrote:
So far my town reads are vivax and bloody and I also wouldn't lynch rayn, or probably chez.
Vivax I already explained, he just has that spark when he's trying to solve, and you can see it here. This is a meta read though so its always a chance that this is the game where scum Vivax changes his meta. He's probably town though.
Bloody keeps saying things that I'm thinking and although that's fakeable so early in the game, I find it far more likely that he sees the game similarly to me because he's town.
I wouldn't lynch rayn here because he *seems* townie, but historically I can't read rayn for shit so I'm just giving him the benefit of the doubt really. I'll filter him in a minute and see if anything jumps out. I like the long post alot.
Chez I wouldn't lynch also because I can't read him. He's very entertaining though so best keep him alive.
Everyone else can die until we find scum, probably in the following order, scummiest first:
haphauli - Not really much to say other than I agree with bloody and rayn but he needs to come and be town or he gets lynched.
Rels Nothing.
Shockeyy Need to see more from shockeyy but he seems a bit too laid back if you know what i mean. Almost like he can't be bothered. Said he wants to have more interactions with other people so I want to see what happens if he does.
Trfel I have explained. He responded okay to pressure but I still think his case on rayn was poor and he pulled out the 'trying to get people talking' line that mafia loves. I'm trying to avoid tunnelling on him though because I've done that before when he was town.
So yeah my two biggest scumreads have barely posted. I guess that shows where I am in this game at the moment.
In addition, the "order of scumminess" itself leads to some extra questions about your vote on Shockey. Given this list, Rels is #2. It is literally impossible to tell anything about Rels' alignment given zero posting. Rels is null in the purest sense of it. This would imply that Shockeyy and Trefel are slightly above-null, but you chose to place a vote on Shockeyy anyway.
Interesting lynch order by Jock that he was didnt follow at first.
There is one mafia in there. Jock accused his scum buddy.
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On April 06 2020 00:47 Hapahauli wrote:Thoughts after a deep read: Vivax and Trefel come across as strongly town. Vivax is adequately paranoid with a "dash" of dickish-ness. Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 18:54 Vivax wrote:
This is going to be a hard game, too much scummy stuff from too many people that can't all be mafia. There is a certain "earnestness" about Trefel's posting that's very consistent with a town-Trefel mindset. Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 15:16 Trfel wrote:On April 05 2020 15:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:On April 05 2020 15:05 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 14:37 ShoCkeyy wrote:On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:Wow does everyone see something off with rayn? I don't see it. On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:
[quote]
INITIATE DISLIKE PILE. Care to explain why? @Vivax, you too? It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious. Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them. Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure. I don't think all players play like that at all. A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made). So the two assumptions you had made were: 1: I think you are mafia 2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else) Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players. Trfel from his last game seems new and curious. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. I wasn't watching the last game. He's very different already? Depends on what your definition of different is. He was mafia last game hah. It’s hard to know, but he does seem similar. I’ll give him a second look. Wait a second, I'm confused. By "new and curious," (see nested quote) are you characterizing my play this game, or are you characterizing my play last game/overall?
Side note, I really want to be suspicious of Jockmcplop, his wording and logic just feel so off, but I can't put my finger on it or articulate why So I'll let it drop. I reserve the right to be suspicious of him later though  The bolded especially. For a player like Trefel, the tone and transparency of this are spot-on with what a townie would be feeling in this particular spot. I think this is very hard to fake.
Jock remains a scumread. I've already posted my rationale, but I'll elaborate on it in the next post. BloodyCobbler is also a scumread. Regarding BC, the gist of it is that I have a hard time justifying how he arrived at his initial readlist. Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 15:18 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Town
Bloodyc0bbler
Leaning town
Shockeyy
Jockmcplop
Null
Chezinu
Rayn
Rels
Lean scum
Vivax
Scum
Trfel
Hapa His scumreads are not inherently mafia-motivated. Very, very wrong, but not distinguishable between wrong-town and malevolent-mafia. BC is clearly reading and interpreting the thread on a "how much are you posting vs. what are you contributing" mindset. Regarding Me: + Show Spoiler +On April 05 2020 15:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
His posts scream posting for sake of posting. Asking questions is great, but only if followed by content. I dont like what ive seen thus far.
Interesting question though ;p Regarding Trefel: + Show Spoiler +On April 05 2020 19:03 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 18:53 Vivax wrote:On April 05 2020 18:22 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On April 05 2020 18:18 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 05 2020 15:15 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 15:07 Trfel wrote:On phone and in bed, so not going to quote you Jockmcplop, hope that's okay. I don't care about Vivax townreading me because I don't care too much about townreads in general (especially at this stage in the game) and I thought I knew why he was townreading me (since he later explained why, it turns out I was only partially correct, ah well). I don't really know how to respond to the rest of your post so let me know if I missed something. But it seems that a key point is my "case's" first point on raynpelikoneet. It's not that he has an implied read that is suspicious, it's that the implied/joke read changes. Townies usually approach mafia from two perspectives: treat everyone as town until there is reason to suspect otherwise, or treat everyone as suspicious until they show otherwise. Raynpelikoneet's posts don't fit in either mindset.That said, if I'm being honest, it's not a strong point at all and we all know this. I'm saying it's the most suspicious thing at that point in the game. Why'd I bring it up then, so people like you have something to talk about! I'd say it worked perfectly  hmm... i quite like this logic even if I don't agree. This is the post that made me change my mind. There are many many ways to attack this post in case Jock wants to do that, especially since i don't do any of what Trfel says here. Furthermore even if i did, it's no way of comparing that narrative to my early posting because i posted a joke and a bait to you. No reads lol. TBH the post jock quoted here (especially the bolded part) is a reason i have a scum read on trfel atm. Why does the bolded part make Trfel mafia? What does it add to the thread? How is it helping us progress towards catching someone who is scum? What point does explaining how the game should be played, in relation to a player whos playstyle is a known quantity, to justify a hard stance read this early in the game? Like, I havent played seriously for years, but what he posted is shit mafia have done for ages to try and blend in. Talking about how one should or shouldn't play makes you look like you are providing useful content when its instead just fluff. If you take into consideration how hard he also was defending himself / reacting to general suspicion so early into the game gives me the read I have. Regarding Vivax: + Show Spoiler +On April 05 2020 18:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 18:20 raynpelikoneet wrote:
BC i don't really think there is much chance of Vivax being mafia. Its why I have him as a scum lean. Play I dislike / view as bad (not saying it is the wrong way to play just that i dont like it) makes me lower you down until you do something that stands out. I am merely waiting for it. He has been more active since my original read, but he still needs to give real content to the thread. These three reads have a common theme: all of us are posting, but not "contributing content", trying to BS our way into inflating our post counts. Given BC's emphasis, it is extremely hard for me to understand how town-BC turns around and slight town-reads Shockeyy, who up until this point in the game has posted over 10 times, yet only contributed a "benefit of the doubt" read on Trefel: Show nested quote +On April 05 2020 14:37 ShoCkeyy wrote:On April 05 2020 13:55 Jockmcplop wrote:Wow does everyone see something off with rayn? I don't see it. On April 05 2020 13:39 Trfel wrote:On April 05 2020 13:29 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 13:24 Trfel wrote:On April 05 2020 12:22 Jockmcplop wrote:On April 05 2020 10:22 Trfel wrote:So I think the most suspicious person so far is raynpelikoneet. Implies that I am mafia one post, implies that I am town later + Show Spoiler [Analysis] +On April 05 2020 02:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:Is that saying you dont belong to the family?  On April 05 2020 03:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Maybe he fell asleep again? It's also boring to tak with townies only so maybe we wait for the bloody cobbler to arrive. Why did raynpelikoneet's view change? Even if he's just joking around, if he's town, I expect him to have some perception of my alignment; whatever it is, it can't really fit into both of these statements. INITIATE DISLIKE PILE. Care to explain why? @Vivax, you too? It looks like you are being very sensitive to rayn's opinion of your alignment, and that oversensitivity has caused you to read something NAI (rayn's early prodding) as being suspicious. Why does that make me more likely mafia? I think all players, regardless of alignment, are more sensitive to people's opinions of them. Overdefensiveness and coming into the game immediately being worried about people's read on you is +mafia for sure. I don't think all players play like that at all. A big example of this is the way you assume I think you are mafia when before this post I had not said anything of the sort, just that I disliked your previous post (I mostly disliked the logic of it until this response you just made). So the two assumptions you had made were: 1: I think you are mafia 2: The fact that you think that I think you are mafia, and Vivax's town read on you, are the most important things to you in the thread (ie you didn't respond to or quote anything else) Both of these assumptions show a mindset that you are coming into the game with, and that mindset is something that I have often seen with scum players. Trfel from his last game seems new and curious. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. The dissonance between what he is stating to be his emphasis in his scumreads vs. how he is reading Shockey shows his mafia mindset here.
Mr. Truffles hammered pretty heavily here.
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The flip floppity of the votes has me concerned btw. Going to bed, good night.
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##Unvote
This game makes me want to vomit. I have strong reasons to read everyone as town, and obviously one of my reads is wrong. Time to re-dive again.
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##Vote Shockey
Day 1 wagon on Jock was all town, final answer..
I looked through some Chez games to verify the "I'm TOWN" thing. I remembered it from years ago. Problem is, I could only find one mafia game from him in TL's search filter thingy. He was a mafia Traitor in that game and claimed Doctor... which doesn't help. I DID get to hear him talk about how he approached mafia and how he interacted with the QT when he joined, and I'm back to my original read on him. I can't see him voting Jock and fucking off. Can't see it. He may be troll-y, but he does try to help his teammates.
Trfel is a plausible "clean mafia" candidate, but again, I can't see why and how he'd bus like that. Also, just so many of his posts are dead-on emotionally consistent with town-Trfel. I haven't seen anyone be able to fake that in any of my games, and I'm going to roll with it.
That leaves Shockey. The argument in favor of Town Shockey is that his posting is too "off the rails" to be mafia. But at the end of the day, he acted pro-mafia on the D1 lynch, trying to push town away from the Jock lynch, essentially arguing that of the two candidates on deck (myself and Jock), I was the "scummier" candidate. I stand by this:
On April 11 2020 01:55 Hapahauli wrote:
Some things stick out about Shock's filter on a second readthrough:
1) Everyone alive has questioned my alignment at some point or another. Everyone except for Shock, and I find it very odd that he'd go from screaming in all caps that I outed myself as mafia in the thread to all of a sudden considering me unlynchable-top-town after the Jock flip. He never considers that it could have been a mafia v mafia lynch.
2) Shock is much more opinionated and aggressive than I first read him, when I readthrough the Day 1 lynch.
3) He left Vivax off of his end-of-night-1 read list. I had dismissed this as odd, but it's possible this is a slip, as Vivax got shot.
4) "Shock and Jock" is an excellent mafia team name.
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Day 3 - HOLY GUARDIANS CPT. 2
Votes
ShoCkeyy: (3) Trfel, Chezinu, Hapahauli
Chezinu: (0) Hapahauli
Hapahauli: (0) Chezinu
ShoCkey:(0) Hapahauli, Chezinu
Trfel: (0) Chezinu
Not Voting:
ShoCkeyy
ShoCkeyy is set to die with 3 vote.
until End of Day
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Well then, guess I got do this. Vote Hap.
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You’re about to let mafia win guys.
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I hope not
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EPT
