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This is it:
On July 03 2019 01:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
oO why does she ever say that as mafia HF?
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On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her.
1) Grack could be mafia
2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch
3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise.
4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon)
The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters
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I think Rayn is also a good lynch today.
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On July 03 2019 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters Do you really think this? Anything a player does under pressure is irrelevant?
I believe there are studies on this with real world applications (investigations and so on), but typically... Yes.
Most people don't handle pressure well, sometimes they are super scummy , you apply a bit of pressure and they post a bunch without thinking. Oh... Must be town?.. Sometimes the opposite will happen, it's unpredictable and pretty useless for reading a game.
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On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen?
1) No
2) It is if he decides to jump in and play
3) what?
4) shrug
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On July 03 2019 21:22 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:21 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:19 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters Do you really think this? Anything a player does under pressure is irrelevant? Definitely not very sensible. Then you couldn't count anything a person up for lynch does ever. In that logic, once you decide you want to lynch someone, you ignore absolutely everything they say/do because they're "Under pressure" Exactly. Shit like 90% of what happens in the thread happens because of pressure on someone.
I disagree with what's optimal, but that does seem to be the case here.
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On July 03 2019 21:25 Jockmcplop wrote:
Eywa what do you think of hf? Would you consider a lynch given what I posted above?
Not today.
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On July 03 2019 21:28 Pandain wrote:
Eywa looking suspicious here
If you say so 
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On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this.
If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that?
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I only think ES is scum and therefore won't vote anyone other than ES even if that means I die as a counter wagon.
What about Grackaroni?
Hmm, well, grackaroni MIGHT be town, but then again, he may not be. We've already defended each other, so I'm going to stick to my original plan and you can lynch me if you don't like it.
My God! Eywa is so town guys, he's playing against his win condition. Why on earth would he do that as scum?
WHY WOULD I AS TOWN!?
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Oh, so we're back to the point where Eywa would be an easier lynch than Grackaroni
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I'm just saying, there isn't much town motivation for someone tunnelling when they said about 1 page earlier that they don't really know what's going on in the game.
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On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:35 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:08 Eywa- wrote:
Jockmcplop, have you abandoned your confidence approach from last game?
There was an early interaction between HF and Rayn that struck me as off, but I kind of came out of it thinking that Rayn was scum... Because they kind of amicably came to the same idea despite seemingly starting from different view points (this is when Rayn switches his vote off of ES, then back on.
I don't agree with Pandain, I think ES being willing to only lynch me shows a lack of understanding of what town players are seeing in the game right now and I'm a pretty safe resting spot right now. Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch? If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that? If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum. If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon. Just answer this. What about this logic doesn't make sense?
All of it.
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On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not.
What?
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On July 03 2019 21:38 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:38 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:35 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:32 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:27 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:25 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:20 Pandain wrote:On July 03 2019 21:17 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:12 Pandain wrote:
[quote]
Why does mafia ES refuse to lynch a viable counterwagon on someone she has said she would be willing to lynch?
If you can't explain this, you can't vote her. 1) Grack could be mafia 2) She could think I'm a more viable lynch 3) She's under a lot of pressure and people under pressure do a lot of crazy things they wouldn't do otherwise. 4) She's afraid of giving more associations, so she's locking in all of her reads (this actually is pretty well in line with her play since I joined the wagon) The issue here is, I don't think anything a player does under pressure or after a slip matters 1. Then vote Grack 2. Objectively not true. 3. The vote count was 3-4 Grack-ES. It's not a difficult choice to make as mafia to join the counterlynch. You can't cite pressure. 4. If ES gets lynched, we still know nothing on Grack regardless. What slip have you seen? 1) No 2) It is if he decides to jump in and play 3) what? 4) shrug Why would ES think you are a more viable lynch? There were no votes on you. There were 3 votes on Grack. Only Jock has had some suspicions of you. Answer me this. If you can't answer it yourself then you are admitting that ES is playing against her win condition as either alignment... Why would she do that? If she's town, her play makes complete sense. She does not think Grack is scum. She thinks you are scum. Yes, no one really thinks you are scum, but maybe she can convince people. She is not interested in "just surviving" per se, she is interested in lynching scum. If she's mafia. Her play makes no sense. She is trying to push someone who almost no one thinks is scum when she's up for lynch and there's another viable counterwagon. In fact, there's only one viable counterwagon. Just answer this. What about this logic doesn't make sense? All of it. Elaborate. Because you're alone thinking this.
No need, it's pretty obvious.
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On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips.
This is incorrect, but probably the perception.
Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon.
It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle.
We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves...
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On July 03 2019 21:42 Pandain wrote:
I'm going to vote Eywa until he starts talking.
jock wanna join me? I'll vote with you HF at eod if ES is the only other option.
I can't help someone who thinks optimal town and optimal scum play are different here, they are almost always the same.
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On July 03 2019 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:44 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips. This is incorrect, but probably the perception. Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon. It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle. We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves... How is this incorrect???? If ES fails to switch to grack, then flips red, we immediately kill grack because basic logic says so. If they are both mafia, mafia loses. I can't see how on earth you can possibly think otherwise.
It would be incorrect to do so. That's not an associative, what happened before is the associative. All I'm saying is that her optimal play as mafia is always the same as her optimal play for town. She can counter wagon or she can gambit, both are valid plays and are NOT associative.
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On July 03 2019 21:47 Eywa- wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2019 21:46 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:44 Eywa- wrote:On July 03 2019 21:40 Jockmcplop wrote:On July 03 2019 21:37 Pandain wrote:
At least HF thinks both are scum, so he has some leeway. You do not. Like I said, if they are both scum this logic proves even more that ES wouldn't take this action. Its literally a loss for mafia as soon as she flips. This is incorrect, but probably the perception. Honestly, both are ok plays as either alignment. You can gambit on yourself or you can counter wagon. It has nothing to do with alignment, it's just about playstyle. We shouldn't all lose our minds because someone chose gambit on themselves... How is this incorrect???? If ES fails to switch to grack, then flips red, we immediately kill grack because basic logic says so. If they are both mafia, mafia loses. I can't see how on earth you can possibly think otherwise. It would be incorrect to do so. That's not an associative, what happened before is the associative. All I'm saying is that her optimal play as mafia is always the same as her optimal play for town. She can counter wagon or she can gambit, both are valid plays and are NOT associative.
Like, based on this logic, you should always counter wagon as scum because they'll think the player you switched onto is your buddy, which would be incorrect.
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Anyway, we disagree on optimal play, but we should stop having 3 townies clog the thread with nonsense.
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EPT
