On March 29 2015 10:06 Superbia wrote:I'm going to put down some logic of where I'm at with my head, and then I'm going to continue my Pillars of Eternity play through. I'm also not sure how much time I'll have tomorrow, as I'm going to a party in the evening. Hopefully I can try to prevent my miss-lynch again, and hopefully the town-reads actually stick this time.
So, let's start off with the general direction of the game, and how the game has progressed from yesterday.
Let's start off with the assumption that I'm town. The following wagon was on me at the wagon's summit:
Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 06:10 Blazinghand wrote:
Superbia (8): Artanis[Xp], Eden1892, FecalFeast, Alakaslam, ritoky, Damdred, Toadesstern, Trfel
Of these, FF and Slam (who flipped town) stand out. FF liked the case I put on Artanis, but seemed fine with sheeping Artanis when he put his case on me. This seems very odd to me, but in a way that is regardless of FF's alignment. I literally just don't know what he is doing. That being said, I also see FF's recent lynch outlook post as coming from a town perspective. His view on me makes sense from what I recall from our interactions. That being said:
FF, kindly explain your read on me. Why did you think I was scum or a PR? What gave it away? You said earlier on that your read on me involves calling me mafia, how did that read progress?Moving on, I kind of like damdred in a weird WIFOMy way. He called me out for giving a shit defense in a sort of BM way. I don't think scum does this, tbh. I don't know damdred very well, but I don't think scum shits on a townie about to get miss-lynched like that. Furthermore, his poke sparked me, and allowed me to give the defense to prevent the miss-lynch (though we still miss-lynched). He was also one of the first to rescind off the wagon (iirc). He might be laughing in his scum QT right now, but he's getting a town read for now.
Ritoky, I don't even know where he's at, to be honest. His opinion seems uninformed, and I don't think a town would be comfortable lynching someone who they have been unable to form a proper opinion about. Moreover, the rayn slot seems incredibly fishy. I scum-read rayn before the claim (iirc), and I don't understand the rescind off the PR, nor why scum seemingly did not put an RB or a KP on him (more on this later). I can see why rayn would fake claim in that scenario as town, as he had been tired of people not listening to him in previous games, and he may be uninterested in defending himself, but it's so bad as town, because it can bait out a CC. Furthermore, I don't think he used his position of temporary confirmed town to push anything (again, iirc). The fact that this fake-claim has (seemingly, and iirc, I haven't actually read the majority of d2, tbh) not been fully explored yet is alarming to say the least.
I think trfel is town for probably ever. I think Artanis & toad are town for now as well. I'm definitely not touching them today, but maybe Artanis in Final 3. Toad looks really, really good for his push on Palmar d1, the CC, and the fact that it looks like his KP is the KP that went through d2. Vivax goes on this list too for now, but I have no idea what I'm going to think if I encounter him in final 3.
Actually almost missed Breshke when studying the wagon. Honestly, I think Breshke is somewhat likely scum? I hate saying this. =/ He has hard defended me at multiple times in the game (and I have agreed), but I think the defense may be a little TMI. The fact is, a lot of town has read me as scummy for most of the game, and I have no idea why he has been comfortable defending me. Also, I have noticed that he did not hard defend me during the wagon on me, while I have a feeling he was around regardless.
This post is the most scummy for me:
Show nested quote +On March 27 2015 07:09 Breshke wrote:
he argument between artanis and superbia made superbia look worse because i understood what artanis was saying whereas I had no idea wtf superbia was trying to say/do. That being said superbia should still not be lynched today.
Im down for lynching onegu or slam maybe FF but not theres a reason id rather not explain why that is bad this phase.
The people who say slam could be mafia but we shouldnt lynch him and just sort him out with the orb arn't really thinking it through because the orb has a 50% chance to do nothing if slam knows he is going to be orbed and you can literally say the same thing about anyone else you push on.
##Vote Onegu
I have no idea why he is still comfortable town-reading me while still saying that.
Finally, Onegu. I actually sort of like Onegu? I kinda likes how he approaches the lynch in this post:
Show nested quote +On March 28 2015 22:53 Onegu wrote:On March 28 2015 20:25 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Ctrl-F Damdred in Ritoky's filter, 90 results.
Ctrl-F Onegu, 46 results.
Ctrl-F Breshke, 28 results.
Ctrl-F Superbia, 22 results.
Ctrl-F Fecal, 22 results.
Ritoky seems much more concerned with going after Damdred than finding out who's mafia in the PoE group, which COULD be town but if I'm right it also really serves a mafia agenda. I'm fine with lynching him today. Also ok with Superbia.
Out of these two id more prefer superbia over ritoky. The wagons went off of him onto two town wagons. Plus I had my Rayn soul read and it would really devistate me if this was the first time I was wrong.
Like if he's town it really does not mean much for him to look at votes, as it doesn't matter for scum what they vote, while normally you would look at who voted. I was even going to call him out for this, but it makes sense for town!Onegu to look at it like this.
I also want to discuss the N1 actions a bit more.
We have these claims before N1:
Vivax - KP on ???
Toad - KP on ???
Rayn - Track on ???
We have these claims post N1:
Vivax - KP on
Slam (scum could've seen this coming),
Roleblocked.
Toad - KP on
VE (scum could've seen this coming, but less so than the KP on slam).
Rayn - Rescind his tracker claim.
RSO - Jail on Onegu.
Now. The interesting thing is that Rayn never got roleblocked, while he and Palmar did have sort of an encounter in the later stage of d1 (though rayn showed no interest in wanting to lynch palmar, afaik). This while Palmar is mafia (though goon). Now, unless I'm completely wrong, there was a decent chance that Palmar would be in Rayn's sights if rayn was an actual tracker. I don't know this, but Palmar may have suspected this. Furthermore, there was a decent chance that Palmar was going to carry the KP through the night as goon (you don't really want mafia PRs to carry it, especially due to tracker), so why not RB rayn? Like this is very speculative, especially looking back, but ask yourself this: why did scum not roleblock rayn? Who is a much higher risk target than a (what I'm assuming is) a town vigi who is willing to follow HF and when the targets are two town (now confirmed). This world only makes sense if Vivax is actually mafia, and scum were looking to confirm Vivax by foregoing the roleblock and claiming it on Vivax OR if Onegu was carrying the KP that was going on rayn. This is still rather speculative, but I think this is a good reason to lynch Ritoky (ex-rayn) today.
EPT
