EPTI also really like that last post you did because it kind of fills in the gaps a bit (+ the bits where you explain you didn't even read my posts about him till now -.-).
Liquidmania Qualifier #2 - Page 48
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
I also really like that last post you did because it kind of fills in the gaps a bit (+ the bits where you explain you didn't even read my posts about him till now -.-). | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
Honestly I wouldnt lynch you or HF today. I normally stray away from trying to get a read on him early. Because when I do I am usually wrong but when we get to lylo and he is still around I can usually get a read on him either by does he have a reason to be alive and if he does have a reason does his shit make sense. I would lynch you over him at this point and it hurts me to say this. On January 17 2017 13:59 Onegu wrote: I have seen town HF have so many scum reads it was dumb. And I have seen town HF have very few scumreads day 1. I really just dont try to read him until later in the game. My thoughts is if he is town scum have to shoot him because he will figure things out eventually. And if he is scum is reads later in the game wont make as much sense and he will still be alive which under normal circumstances he wont. I have been in games where scum left him alive until mylo and he solved the game. It just takes time for me to form a read I am comfortable with on him. you've also been in games where scum have just left me alive and I'm a confused mofo who scum reads everyone though sooooo this isn't much of a read but a cop out  Which makes HF null to me now and lynching him would be a 2/9 chance of getting it correct. And if we get it wrong and lynch a town HF we lose one of the best scum hunters on this site. On January 18 2017 01:14 Onegu wrote: I am here. I dont want to lynch HF. I really dont want to. Dont lynch HF. On January 18 2017 02:11 Onegu wrote: Would let you lynch me over HF. I think he is a coin flip at best and the chance that he is town and wins it for me would give him mvp and me the second most points for saving him. Im willing to risk it. this is kinda unnerving amounts of dedication tbh onegu you're back on The List™ | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Vivax Onegu Holyflare BillMurray Slam Damdred Rels --------- The 3 in the middle are not so much null, as I haven't filtered them in detail yet. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
The 3 in the middle are not so much null, as I haven't filtered them in detail yet. wut | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly scummy, with a small chance of derp townie. Why he's mafia: I've posted quite a bit on Vivax. The strongest points I believe are as follows: 1) Vivax thinks myself and HF are mafia. It does not make sense to try to swing the lynch away from HF at the end of Day 1 knowing this. 2) Vivax reminded town that no lynching was a disaster. However, his move to lynch me increased the chance of a no lynch substantially. He didn't push town much to lynch me at all. He very calmly voted me, didn't lobby for consolidation, and stated: On January 18 2017 02:24 Vivax wrote: No shenannies. I didn't sign up to discuss shit for 48 hours and then throw it all away in 5 minutes 3) Vivax reminded town that no lynching was a disaster. Yet he calls myself and holyflare mafia for last-minute switching to LS, when it is clear as day it was necessary to avoid a no lynch. 4) His move to me at the end of the day used pretty shit reasoning compared to the reasons why he thought HF was mafia. Why he could be derp townie: His votes can be viewed as very attention seeking and risky, ergo town. He was being town-read pretty early on and strongly by most of the thread. Why I think on-balance, he is mafia: There's just no good town explanation for his vote shenanigans. I've listed why above. In addition, I think a lot of the reasons to call him town in the early game fall apart under closer scrutiny. 1) People read him as town for his interaction with me. Mafia can defend themselves against an early D1 case. I think it's pretty null here. 2) People thought he was "reading deep" into people's filters. I disagree enitrely on a second look. Vivax was largely looking through filters and being extremely difficult to people about non-scum tells. The entire Rels/Vivax exchange looks like Vivax nitpicked something in his filter and was extremely obstinate about it for way too long. The more I think about his case on Holyflare, the more it begins to form a pattern. 3) A lot of Vivax's analysis is very "narrow." His read on Damdred for example is very shallow. Useless = mafia. He's ignoring a lot of the good points that Damdred could be town (thread atmosphere, very genuine thought process, etc). He's not really looking for the totality of people's actions. He's diving through filters and trying to find individual contradictions. There's no weighing, balancing, or critical thinking. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Partly scummy, partly lynchbait. From how the lynch went down, I'd argue Onegu looks the worst. Why Onegu is mafia: On January 17 2017 12:32 Onegu wrote: Rels is my biggest read right now. The call out on damdred seems really forced and fake. His read on me seemed fake. Then when called out on it he went from giving me a town read down into scummy would lynch pile. Honestly I wouldnt lynch you or HF today. I normally stray away from trying to get a read on him early. Because when I do I am usually wrong but when we get to lylo and he is still around I can usually get a read on him either by does he have a reason to be alive and if he does have a reason does his shit make sense. I would lynch you over him at this point and it hurts me to say this. Not really sure how between slams first posts and my vote on him did he do anything useful and yet you think he looks ok and my vote on him is scummy. But again I would prefer not to lynch you or holyflare day 1. I really believe trying to get reads on you day 1 are pointless. I would never lynch Vivax. He is by far my top town at this point. He saw the same thing I saw about rels. LS/Damdred I am fairly meh on. Really think rels is a much better lynch over them. Also for rels calling out slam do something seemed like a way for him to try to gain town cred for calling out a player who wasnt doing much even though it is slam and he plays wilder than I do game from game. Rels knows this. ##Unvote ##Vote Rels Firstly, this case is a very typical mafia case. It looks all nice and pretty, but it doesn't hold up to a closer look. The entire post reads as a way for Onegu to take a stance, without actually providing any useful things to town. 1) The analysis is useless. His case boils down to "I think Rels play looks forced", which is unhelpful to say the least. It's a completely subjective tell. Hell, 75% of the post talks about people other than his main scum-read. 2) Onegu talks about Vivax being top town, and "seeing the same thing as Vivax saw about Rels." But it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to do this. Vivax's case on Rels was based on not understanding that Rels was actively catching up in thread and updating his reads while he was posting. Onegu did the same thing this game, and mentions that he does it frequently. Yet for some reason, Onegu doesn't understand what's wrong with vivax's read. 3) The timing is weird. It's a very typical mafia play to bomb a case on a player that no one is really talking about to create chaos. At this point, I had just posted my case on Holyflare, and HF/Vivax votes were on Damdred. On January 18 2017 02:11 Onegu wrote: Would let you lynch me over HF. I think he is a coin flip at best and the chance that he is town and wins it for me would give him mvp and me the second most points for saving him. Im willing to risk it. This is just a weird martyr post that feels very forced. It's like he's trying to play up his desire not to lynch HF, knowing full well that he himself (Onegu) wasn't at risk of being lynched. Why he could be Lynchbait? Onegu is notoriously hard to read, and somewhat of an inactive player. He also has molded his playstyle to be unreadable on meta, or so he has said in the past. On balance? Mafia Onegu seems to be pushing mafia objectives. His push of Rels was very useless. The Holyflare martyr stuff seems very fake. It's one of those things that looks like you're sticking your neck out, but you're really not. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly townie, with a slight chance of demotivated scum. Why townie? Genuine thought process. You can tell he's lost, confused, and doesn't have a lot of time to play. On January 17 2017 02:03 Damdred wrote: Sure you do if you read what I say Town: LS Vivax HF Gut feeling: Slam not in any order Null leaning: Happa Rels Onegu BM I probably could move hapa to town if i really squinted but i'd rather him squirm under the ire of the storm. This list looks bad at first glance, but who the actual fuck does this as mafia with town sentiment against them? Damdred is lost, and is not trying to overcompensate by forcing a scum-read. Usually scum will feel some pressure to look good here. This post also highlights another major point: lack of self-preservation instinct. It doesn't seem like Damdred is trying to look good. He's just posting what he's thinking, and that is extremely townie. Why he could be demotivated mafia... Demotivated mafia aren't going to have a self preservation instinct. He could see some pressure on him, and give up right away expecting to die. You could read his end of the day sheep of Vivax as Damdred actually being around and pushing mafia objectives, but playing the pity card. On Balance... town I think the thought process is very hard to fake. I sympathize a lot, because that is how I was feeling in-game. I also highly value lack of self-preservation instinct very highly. Generally scum at least feel obligated to try to please their teammates. There is zero sense that Damdred is trying to look good or please anyone. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30775 Posts
so everything I found you scummy for and you not evaluating damdred at all and him looking just like you but you scum reading him and you now think he's town for that exact reason??????????????????????????? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mostly townie, with a slight chance of exceptionally good mafia game Why townie? Activity. Very open about his mindset. If you read his filter (especially towards the end of day chaos), you can see what enters his mind in real time. It's very genuine and townie. I liked his switch off of tunneling me into tunneling HF. It shows a healthy mix of confirmation bias against me (townie trait), followed by critically reading Vivax's posts to make a conclusion on HF, followed by not really taking my alignment for granted. Why exceptionally good mafia game? Rels is an excellent mafia player. See Liquimania #1 for a great example. He is definitely capable of faking emotion and looking like a normal townie through the chaos of the day. It seems like he was caught in this game more because of pushing mafia objectives than some scumtell he was giving off. On balance... town I don't see him faking the waffle and the productivity to this extent as mafia. Any case I could make on him would be entirely based on paranoia, not facts. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On January 18 2017 05:54 Holyflare wrote: oh my god so everything I found you scummy for and you not evaluating damdred at all and him looking just like you but you scum reading him and you now think he's town for that exact reason??????????????????????????? Exactly. I think I was looking at Damdred the completely wrong way. I was framing his actions as useless, which was extremely superficial. In there is a very genuine thought process, and I've talked about this with the thread several times since I've stopped voting him. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
When I take the context of his play (unsure, waffly, not confident), his behavior begins to make a lot of sense. If you don't have confidence, you are going to latch on to people who do, subconsciously or not. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
On January 18 2017 05:44 Hapahauli wrote: Onegu Partly scummy, partly lynchbait. From how the lynch went down, I'd argue Onegu looks the worst. Why Onegu is mafia: Firstly, this case is a very typical mafia case. It looks all nice and pretty, but it doesn't hold up to a closer look. The entire post reads as a way for Onegu to take a stance, without actually providing any useful things to town. 1) The analysis is useless. His case boils down to "I think Rels play looks forced", which is unhelpful to say the least. It's a completely subjective tell. Hell, 75% of the post talks about people other than his main scum-read. 2) Onegu talks about Vivax being top town, and "seeing the same thing as Vivax saw about Rels." But it doesn't make a lot of sense for him to do this. Vivax's case on Rels was based on not understanding that Rels was actively catching up in thread and updating his reads while he was posting. Onegu did the same thing this game, and mentions that he does it frequently. Yet for some reason, Onegu doesn't understand what's wrong with vivax's read. 3) The timing is weird. It's a very typical mafia play to bomb a case on a player that no one is really talking about to create chaos. At this point, I had just posted my case on Holyflare, and HF/Vivax votes were on Damdred. This is just a weird martyr post that feels very forced. It's like he's trying to play up his desire not to lynch HF, knowing full well that he himself (Onegu) wasn't at risk of being lynched. Why he could be Lynchbait? Onegu is notoriously hard to read, and somewhat of an inactive player. He also has molded his playstyle to be unreadable on meta, or so he has said in the past. On balance? Mafia Onegu seems to be pushing mafia objectives. His push of Rels was very useless. The Holyflare martyr stuff seems very fake. It's one of those things that looks like you're sticking your neck out, but you're really not. 1) Yeah it talks about other things than my scum read so what. I still scum read rels and I gave my reasons for doing so. Why is it subjective? 2) I agreed with vivax and liked how he pointed the rels thing out. I still dont want to lynch him and think you are trying to force 2 town lynches. 3) Why is the timing weird and why does this even matter. I pointed out something I didnt like, who cares what the timing is. You want me to not point something out hapa? Also its not true. I wasnt much behind what I wrote that Vivax pointed out what I was talking about, and shortly after that Slam agreed with me. The martyr post. You are wrong. It was just posted right before that Rels would lynch me if not HF. It was in response to that post that I would rather be lynched than HF. On January 18 2017 02:05 Rels wrote: The only other lynch I could do is Onegu. But I prefer HF | ||
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Onegu
United States9699 Posts
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Vivax
22424 Posts
On January 18 2017 06:07 Onegu wrote: Creed is on Amazon Prime now and I havent seen it yet. Thats where I will be. Just started vikings myself after finishing a bunch of others. Nothing so far ever came close to breaking bad though. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
On January 18 2017 02:45 Vivax wrote: I don't talk to confirmed scum. The ones I will talk or answer to are Rels, Damdred, 1gu, Slam, BM when I remind them why you both have to die. sup? im not seeing it On January 18 2017 02:48 Vivax wrote: But yes I actually believed there were three mafia <_< im finding this hard to believe though On January 18 2017 02:56 Holyflare wrote: you're sticking to the fact that the top mafia player wanted to sacrifice himself to one of the better town players on this site in an effort to make him last like a million mislynches when there's a chance of no medic being in the game at all and that medic can't even heal the same person twice in a row if there is one? stone cold MALPHITE LOGIC award "Rock Solid" | ||
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