[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot - Page 2

On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote:
I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe.

On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote:

Point 2 is specifically worse because we're in mylo, and you shouldn't enter the day with a pre-conceived idea of who you want to lynch.

On December 07 2016 11:14 Chairman Ray wrote:


Point taken. You mentioned that you are leaning town on NeverUnlucky (specifically you said not neutral). What's your reasoning for that read?

On December 07 2016 15:20 cakepie wrote:
G'day folks. RIP Koshi.

It's iml mylo, so I'm not exactly raring to go tying nooses. And it's early in the day yet. But scumhunting can't wait. You got to work with what you have.

Tumblewood
Definitely fishy. As Chairman Ray points out, TW talks plan, gets it all wrong.
But what really sets the alarms off for me is his tone and progression.

TW is definitely aware that state of the game = D1 mylo, with his opening post.
+ Show Spoiler +

And then there's his plan:
+ Show Spoiler +
Several mechanical things about the plan rub me the wrong way here:

• sells copchecks as conftown without deadcopflip
  
• sells high numbers of conftown, when in all likelihood absolutely half of them are going to be dead conftown
  
• "D3 (five conftown)" sounds amazing, but is complete false advertising. Relies on (unreasonably?) optimistic view that we manage to lynch a (claimed) redcheck from (claimed) cop. Failing that, we've already lost: D3 is a 2-2 voterace if no-lynch on first two days.

Going from "D1 mylo" to "just get to D3 and we're set!" is just... I'm incredulous. I mean, even if you're just blindly enumerating the possibilities, going from N0 to D1, N1, etc... mylo isn't something that just slips your mind -- you KNOW you have TWO days to make ONE correct lynch. That's not a given. I'm not sure even an incredibly negligent townie would so flippantly irresponsible as to practically take it for granted.

His tone/progression is also problematic.

• The plan was presented seriously, if maybe a bit tentatively. ("so... plan?"). I detect no joke, no troll, no facetiousness.
  
• The plan is clear followup from NU's #43 starting to talking about whether blues should claim / VTs should not fakeclaim.
  NU's post (and meta) suggests he's a player who could be enticed with plans revolving around setup mechanics, so #45 could be working that angle
  
• When plan is attacked for bad math, #52 still bad math -- conscientious townie would have triple checked! -- casually sells bad math ("odds slightly favor us") while distancing from the plan at the same time ("I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring").
  
• So eager to circlejerk with NU and Koshi, except + Show Spoiler [tinfoil] +
  "didn't mean to lump [Koshi] in with us" but we're totally town just like him, right?
  
  
• Gets all worked up N0 and early D1 about him giving a shit and others apparently not, trying way too hard to oversell his noise as activity before others even begin engaging

Hi ExO. I've been casually drafting since usually no one's around when I'm up.
But since you're here, Imma dump what I have so far, and let's talk.

On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote:
Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy

On December 08 2016 11:17 Chairman Ray wrote:


If you and TW are interested in using math to demonstrate whether or not cop should claim, why the sudden lack of interest today? Exo made a strong push in favor of cop claiming. TW made a short mention that cop should only claim if he checks red. You haven't mentioned anything at all. I would expect that TW should be fighting hard against Exo and you to have some sort of opinion as well. You two were so passionate yesterday but you don't seem to care today.

On December 08 2016 04:04 Hopeless1der wrote:


ExO has maintained that the cop should claim. I dont particularly agree, I'd rather tempt fate on a no-lynch and have the cop end-of-night phase post their N0 check, with the possibility of getting a N1 check as well. Besides that, ExO is doing a poor job of actually reading the thread, and I'm not sure where that falls on the scummy/stupid scale so I dont want to pursue a lynch there.

---

I like CR's posts, his suspicions, questions, justifications for everything are well reasoned and show appropriate suspicion.

---

I do not like NU's overly defensive tone following the daypost when CR accused TW/NU of hiding behind poorly reasoned math.
+ Show Spoiler [#86] +

Especially the 2nd paragraph in the above spoiler, it reads to me as less about NU being one of the targets and more about CR having more than one target, when they're being accused with same reasoning. Why would CR be inclined to single someone out in this scenario? To me, there's no reason for it and NU's post comes off as contrived to me.

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As you said, most of the TW material has been covered so I'll skip over it. Also, I think you're town.

My vote preferences are:
1-No-Lynch
2-TW
3-NU
4-ExO
5-CR
6-cake
7-me

On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:
gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta
+ Show Spoiler +
I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation