Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 2

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 25 2016 22:16 GMT

#636

On September 25 2016 17:17 Jealous wrote:
## Lunaticman

This was 13 hours ago, and would've been after Calix's vote if it was done properly. His whole filter is basically pushing Luna after the anti-town post.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 03:12 GMT

#660

On September 26 2016 11:56 DoYouHas wrote:
GRAH, I CAN'T MAKE IT STICK

For everything I don't like about you and think makes you scum: Your early fluff, non-committal, over-defensiveness, appeals to your noobieness, misrepresenting me, buddying Calix, looking at the proposal of multiple wagons from a mafia perspective instead of a town one (looking at it as a trap to be avoided instead of as an opportunity for better VCA) I can't seem to find the mafia actions in your play around the lynch. If I'm having trouble convincing myself of probably the most important part when I undoubtedly have my confirmation bias glasses on it probably isn't there. I was seeing your tonal shifts from casually attacking Luna to guarded consideration then back to casual attacking as very odd. But the thing I can't figure out if you are scum is why you would leave your vote on Luna and not Stutters before the wagon on Luna got rolling. This post:

Show nested quote +

It doesn't fit or is significantly more clever than I am.

Damn, damn, damn. I hate having no scum reads. I really do need to get to bed though. See you all with the daypost.

Insightful

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 03:34 GMT

#661

SEQ moves up for being the first on the Luna train and not swaying.
Xatalos and Jealous as well.

90%+ Town:
SEQ
Calix
Rels
Jealous

Town lean (in order)
Skynx
Stutters
Xatalos
DanelerH
ptmc

My instincts tell me I think one of the scums is probably hiding in the town lean list though.

Scumlean:
DYH - I like some of Skynx's posts on him - and his vote reasoning looks really bad once I've re-read it as well.

Superbia - I'm not a fan of how he wanted to go after me - the reasoning was weak, many others did not agree and I know i'm town (OMGUS?)

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 04:50 GMT

#664

So I'll try to explain it better for you-

So last night, Luna was looking pretty bad, after he made the blue post - he got really defensive. I was thinking about voting for him at that time - but no one had town read him, defended him, or really push another lynch. This made me fear he was town. I even asked him straight up who he'd like to lynch.

So this morning, all he had was two new posts - and they had 0 usable content. It was all "why you calling me mafia etc". Skynx wanted to go for another lynch as well now (DYH in post #462)

With the above new information, I put my vote on Luna and he never posted again.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 17:36 GMT

#736

On September 27 2016 01:48 Xatalos wrote:

Show nested quote +

On September 27 2016 01:43 Xatalos wrote:

On September 27 2016 00:20 Rels wrote:

On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
I went through the Lunatic trainwreck again and tried to objectively sum up what happend chronologically, open for "unbiased" read:

+ Show Spoiler +

Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post
Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)
DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic
Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees
Xatalos reacts with

On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic
Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where I give my reasons why I think a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls me out because ptmc "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ
Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it
Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"
Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ
Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch
Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate
Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic

On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic

On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.

Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like his two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work

And my comments for it, marked in red stuff i think is scummy, in green things i think is towny (obviously in the light of the successful lynch) with some comments centered where i needed to say some more

+ Show Spoiler +

Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post

this is maybe not red, but at least weird

Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)

again, at least weird, since it had obviously already sparked discussion

DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic

I guess this is Lunatics blue role claim on stutters working out as intended?

Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees
Xatalos reacts with

On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic
Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where ptmc gives his reasons why he thinks a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls ptmc out because he "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ
Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it

Mafia feeling out the waters if it is bussing time?

Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"

This looks so much like bussing, especially with him ignoring those posts previously

Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ

still no word on lunatic except the earlier "no comment"

Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch
Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate

Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic

i will not give green "points" from here on for voting lunatic, since the train has reached critical mass already

Next post, scott votes Lunatic

Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like scotts two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work

Take home message says scott had access to very bad posts by Lunatic way before he goes afk, but choses to ignore them. Only when the train has become unstoppable for mafia he "revisits" them and now they are strong enough to lynch for.

Other reads from the Lunaticman-Lynch:
solid town:
DanelerH
Calix

town lean:
Jealous
Rels
SEQ
superbia (for actually noticing scott)

inconsistent:
Xatalos
Skynx

scum leans (lynch all day err'day)
Scott, stutters, dyh

This is quite impressive p: in particular this made me reread Jealous post where he called Lunatic's post retarded. It's very true that it's a strong word to use on your teammate so it is a town indicator for Jealous.
Stutters is still 99% town because of how Lunatic treated him. And Superbia did like nothing this game yet, if scott is scum I agree that he's a unlikely partner but until that happens he's not town. Other than that, this list is pretty good

Slight disagreements..

1) It's pretty safe to call a scummate "retarded". Basically it just downplays their ability to play, making them less suspicious if they do something stupid/anti-town.
2) Lunatic's posting about Stutters would make little sense if they're teammates, but Stutters himself didn't react to Lunatic in a way that would raise much confidence, so.... I'd say Stutters is still a bad lynch, but not sure town.
3) True, he's not done much, but he's been very blatant about it... He seemed pretty relaxed when Lunatic was heading for the slaughter too.

On second thoughts, he did seem to hesitate about going for a counter-push on scott or not. It would fit a scum motivation if scott is town, but that's not certain at all.

It's certain to me that I'm town, yo

I also think PT's and Dandel's posts were pretty good as well.

I swear every time I lynch mafia in a game (I think only once when I got Wile. E with that RB track) every one thinks I bussed. It's so annoying

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 19:23 GMT

#755

On September 27 2016 03:58 Rels wrote:
So so scummy that I will commit my time to do a case on him. Let it be my last will.

DYH is scum and here is why

1. His attitude this game. Passive, has no reads nor will to solve the game.

Nowhere in this game DYH has tried to find scum.
His opener is bland. Two convos posts with Stutters, a few unexplained townreads, and voilà.
He had a few reads during the last half of D1. Everyone of them is scummy. Gonna expand on the other parts.
Finally, this:

Show nested quote +

He has no scumreads, and it is not because he admits that it erases the scuminess.
Plus, it is not his meta. I played with town!DYH, and the dude was low activity but doing cases on people and being a real force in the thread. He got the most tryhard scum lynched (HTS), he got me lynched too (I was town) when I had like quadruple the number of posts.

2. This conversation was fabricated:
The first read DYH gives is done in a pretty suspicious way:

Show nested quote +

DYH baited a conversation with that question. But when Stutters didn't take the bait, he gave his read anyway. It is forced, it is scummy. Town don't interact that way.

3. His attitude towards Lunatic
DYH displayed the perfect busser attitude here. He had a very superficial read on Lunatic, agreeing that he needed to be lynched, but not analyzing anything:

Show nested quote +

Being part of the wagon on his teammate, without really analyzing him.
But that didn't stop him from giving read on Dan and Jealous BASED ON their attitude on Lunatic. This is symptomatic of a teammate; acknowledging that the teammate is scum, but instead of talkinga bout him, talking about how others persuaded him. His entire Dan and Jealous reads are based on their treatements of Lunatic:
+ Show Spoiler +

On September 25 2016 10:16 DoYouHas wrote:

Show nested quote +

On September 25 2016 10:15 Jealous wrote:

On September 25 2016 00:23 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 23:53 DanelerH wrote:
I am not liking Lunaticman right now. First of all, basically all Lunatic has done is posted a random Town read. Let's take a look at it:

On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.

Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff.

Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it.

Stutters is so far the most obvious townie.

I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart.

This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything!

This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out.

Lunaticman just throws a random Town-read in the middle of a bunch of irrelevant information. Furthermore, xe doesn't give any reasoning for the Town-read. When asked about it, xe responded with this series of posts:

On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:

On September 24 2016 18:13 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 11:46 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:

On September 24 2016 08:04 Xatalos wrote:
Unfortunately, looks like you can't vote for yourself in this setup :/

Interesting idea. What does this achieve?
Last time I checked, voting for yourself is a lazy way of avoiding pressure, gives no info, doesn't get you reads. Unless you are schizo ^_^

Also hi there.
I'm one of the newbs, this is my first on-site mafia, therefore I am not aware of the site meta. Also find it pointless to link off site meta examples personally. Too many players fall into the meta trap to conclude reads. Anyway this is shit fluff talking. Grill me, bake me, do whatever that makes you happy until my alignment cookie crumbles infront of you.
I'll post my RVS vote, and call it a night.

Just to pop in with my two cents on this matter. Meta is good for establishing what is NAI for a player. (e.g., how often they vote or if they talk in a particular way) but I agree that a lot of people, myself included at times, use it as a substitute for analysis.

I'm not familiar with many people here (I've only really played with Skynx/ Superbia/ Jealous before) and I'd like to keep it that way so that my analysis isn't skewed by some subjective interpretations of how XYZ played in a game like, 486973 years ago. Only exception is if it's a bad player who has pronounced differences between their town/ scum game that means they make themselves obvious or some shit. So if we could keep the "X is scum/ town due to meta" talk down to a minimum then that'll be lovely.

As far as initial impressions go, I town-lean Jealous (this is mainly because we were posting similar things at approximately the same time when we were questioning Stutters so he's more likely to be coming from the same mindset as myself)

Ambivalent on Daneler. I didn't like his entrance because he was using someone else's words to put forth his opinion and then commented on something that looks odd but his follow-up made sense.

Stutters has done some questionable things with his claims to want to generate discussion. These two posts struck me as strange:

On September 24 2016 08:26 Stutters695 wrote:

On September 24 2016 08:21 Jealous wrote:
[quote]
I'm usually pro-PL but it's too early to make such a decision. We need to see how others are posting. It's odd that you suggest this so early.

This is how I get reactions (or saying something controversial then lurking and waiting for reactions, but you don't want that). Obviously I don't want to lynch a lurker though because I want to lynch Xata.

Here he says that he was reaction-testing. NAI by itself but the fact that he capitulated so quickly makes me skeptical. Scum are more likely to shy away from their actions in this manner compared to town (who would be more confident in their ability to defend themselves) because they don't want too much attention.

Stutters:

Calix:
You only got two responses before claiming it was a reaction-test?

My dear Watson, the game is afoot. That does seem kind of counterproductive in retrospect. I think this is the part though where you guys debate if I'm terrible, trying to come off as terrible while scum or part of some master play.

Here he notes that people are likely to discuss his posts. Again, totally normal thing to say by itself, but what I don't like is the fact that he notes most of the possibilities before anyone can actually talk about him...since this limits opportunities for discussion...which goes against his stated aim of getting reactions and thus starting conversation.

It's not a legit contradiction or anything but I'd like Stutters to flesh out his reasoning here.

On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:

What makes you think Stutters is the most townie player in the thread?

Are you claiming to be one of the dumb-sounding people?

Fourth part is just weird. It states the obvious ("mafia are informed and will try to look townie") but it does it in a hyperbolic manner. Where are you going here?

If you think mafia are leading the discussion then that implies that you suspect players and this is something you did not put down in favour of a town-read. Who could fall under this category of 'leading mafia' in your eyes, if anyone?

Stutters is obvious town for me at least, I can understand why you wouldn't notice but I have played with him 4 times in a row and I'm pretty sure he is town.

Please explain

Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least.

On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:27 Rels wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:

On September 24 2016 18:13 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 17:32 Calix wrote:
Yo. I have a bit of time in the morning to pop in.

I actually don't mind the activity as much as I usually would because the posting isn't just a bunch of useless spam and it's much easier to catch up/ reread stuff.

[quote]

Just to pop in with my two cents on this matter. Meta is good for establishing what is NAI for a player. (e.g., how often they vote or if they talk in a particular way) but I agree that a lot of people, myself included at times, use it as a substitute for analysis.

I'm not familiar with many people here (I've only really played with Skynx/ Superbia/ Jealous before) and I'd like to keep it that way so that my analysis isn't skewed by some subjective interpretations of how XYZ played in a game like, 486973 years ago. Only exception is if it's a bad player who has pronounced differences between their town/ scum game that means they make themselves obvious or some shit. So if we could keep the "X is scum/ town due to meta" talk down to a minimum then that'll be lovely.

As far as initial impressions go, I town-lean Jealous (this is mainly because we were posting similar things at approximately the same time when we were questioning Stutters so he's more likely to be coming from the same mindset as myself)

Ambivalent on Daneler. I didn't like his entrance because he was using someone else's words to put forth his opinion and then commented on something that looks odd but his follow-up made sense.

Stutters has done some questionable things with his claims to want to generate discussion. These two posts struck me as strange:

[quote]

Here he says that he was reaction-testing. NAI by itself but the fact that he capitulated so quickly makes me skeptical. Scum are more likely to shy away from their actions in this manner compared to town (who would be more confident in their ability to defend themselves) because they don't want too much attention.

[quote]

Here he notes that people are likely to discuss his posts. Again, totally normal thing to say by itself, but what I don't like is the fact that he notes most of the possibilities before anyone can actually talk about him...since this limits opportunities for discussion...which goes against his stated aim of getting reactions and thus starting conversation.

It's not a legit contradiction or anything but I'd like Stutters to flesh out his reasoning here.

[quote]

What makes you think Stutters is the most townie player in the thread?

Are you claiming to be one of the dumb-sounding people?

Stutters is obvious town for me at least, I can understand why you wouldn't notice but I have played with him 4 times in a row and I'm pretty sure he is town.

Please explain

Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least.

I'll remember that. This "I promise I have ghood reasons" comes more often from scum than from town though.

That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read.

On September 24 2016 21:20 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:51 Rels wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:27 Rels wrote:

On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:

On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:
[quote]
Please explain

Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least.

I'll remember that. This "I promise I have ghood reasons" comes more often from scum than from town though.

That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read.

Why woudln't I do such a thing ?
So apparently you think I'm scum ?

No I didn't say that you are scum I just find it suspect why I have to tell you why I town read him even though I don't want to yet.

There is no reason not to give your reasoning for a Town-read. I want to know why you think Shutters is Town and I will not accept "I'll tell you later" as an answer.

The game is 4 pages long day one, take a chill pill. I dare to say I have done more than half the players in the game and in my experience you never hit mafia day one. It is much better to build a town circle.

Also Stutters is in all likelyhood a blue role. And if he dies it is on you and Rels.

Am I crazy for thinking this is an anti town post? Making Stutters out to be blue role with no nuance is downright retarded.

It is absolutely anti-town. Do you think it is bad play or scum?

On September 25 2016 10:53 DoYouHas wrote:
So is it bad enough that you would want to lynch him or do you currently have a stronger scum read on someone else currently?

On September 25 2016 11:09 DoYouHas wrote:
@Jealous, are you in and out? Why is it taking you this long to respond to me?

On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote:

Show nested quote +

Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up.

DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared.

Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that.

Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum.

On September 26 2016 04:04 DoYouHas wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't think Luna and Dane are likely to be scum together, but taking there play individually I think either of them could be scum here. Is that what you meant?

This is partner indicative.

Conclusion
LYNCH

Pretty decent case here, kind of goes what I was thinking as well.

On September 27 2016 04:03 Rels wrote:
Other than that here is where I'm at:

Town
Dan
Stutters
Calix
ptmc
Stutters

Dunno
SEQ
Skynx
Xata

Could lynch
Jealous
scott

Scum
DYH

You have SEQ in the dunno but he voted first on Luna and never swayed. Does this change your mind? Do you think he bussed? Or is it by his posts he's in the dunno category?

Beyond that I like the list.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 22:00 GMT

#786

That's an interesting kill - could be a dodge though.

Welp DYH Shall we chat?

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 22:03 GMT

#787

Or they believed his blue post.. ehehehehe

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 26 2016 22:04 GMT

#788

On September 26 2016 23:11 Superbia wrote:
Boy I do hope scum doesn't figure out I'm a PR.

Some one that may have been around after this post? Hmmm
Could be lurkers too, I shouldn't think too much of it.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 27 2016 17:36 GMT

#836

So Xata, you saying your scum reads are DYH, Skynx with me as a possible third, is that correct?

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 27 2016 23:27 GMT

#852

On September 28 2016 08:02 Stutters695 wrote:
So I managed to sleep at 13 hours. I'm at work now, can try to field some questions if anyone would like but I'll be back in full after I get off (6-7hrs from now)

Who do you think are the last two scum (I don't need three paragraphs, but at least a sentence on each)

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 28 2016 01:02 GMT

#856

On September 28 2016 09:25 DoYouHas wrote:
Hey guys, I have been slammed at work this week. I will probably have at most 1-2 hours to look at this game between now and deadline.

Many of you want to lynch me, I get it. It might even be for the best as my time really won't free up until this weekend. I apologize for not being on top of my time management to play this game the way it should be played.

That being said, I'm really not going to get into defending myself but I will try to get out a few reads before you all send me packing to try and not leave the town with nothing. If I am unable to get anything out before the deadline tomorrow GL town, ya still got this

There's one positive, two negatives, and one note with this post I'm going to keep to myself.

The one thing I like is in the third paragraph is how he describes "before you all send me packing to try and not leave the town with nothing." Feels like a honest (or trying to be) townie on a legit sympathy for the rest of the town.

The two things I do not like are "Many of you want to lynch me, I get it." - now if I'm town, I'd phrase this as "Many of you want to mislynch me, I get it." - something worth noting to me.

The other is I will probably have at most 1-2 hours to look at this game between now and deadline. So since your last post - we have had two pages of posting - but you wrote this out instead?

Like I asked Stutters, who do you think are the last two scum, and a sentence of your reasoning.

The note I'm keeping for later in the day and will post if necessary.

So many other people being silent gives me tinfoil tinglies as well.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 28 2016 06:12 GMT

#858

So these quiet Europeans are some bullshit.
+ Show Spoiler [notes] +

1) Calix - Who are your two scum reads - you were never quiet your last game here, wtf?
3) DanelerH - Actually been here today a bit, but answer as well - who are your two scum reads?
4) ptmc - Who are your two scum reads? - you seem to be pushing Stutters or want more information on him, what do you think?
5) Jealous - announced
6) SoulEaterQUEEN Tictock -announced
Veterans
1) Stutters695 - Two scum reads -asked already, "I'll be back"
2) Rels - two scum reads
3) Skynx - announced
4) Xatalos - announced
5) DoYouHas - flailing
6) Superbia - dead
7) scott31337 - town

Calix - Who are your two scum reads - you were never quiet until you were dead last game, what has changed?

DanelerH - Actually been here today a bit, but answer as well - What do you think of Stutters? Who are your two scum reads?

ptmc - Who are your two scum reads?

Stutters695 - Two scum reads -asked already, "I'll be back" - waiting for response.

Rels - Who are your two scum reads?

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 28 2016 18:31 GMT

#901

Work has been really crazy today so I've only skimmed today's posts - I'll try to be back in a little bit.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 28 2016 19:10 GMT

#905

On September 29 2016 02:38 Xatalos wrote:
I'll answer to earlier questions for me etc. later, but I had an idea while at work that I just had to start working on as soon as I could... So the following post is about that. It should make things a lot clearer at least for me

The idea being: two levels of scummy interactions, one for Lunatic <--> others and the other for the scummiest of the previous ones <--> each other to figure out 3-man scumteams that make sense. Let's see where this goes. (huge thanks to ptmc's post here by the way, it saved me a lot of time: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/513316-newbie-student-mafia-xxiii?page=35#695 )

1) Lunatic <--> others

DanelerH
Pushed Lunatic through most of D1 and possibly caused him to "shut down" in the thread. I highly doubt he would do that to his teammate. Lunatic appeared genuinely pressured as well, making odd (in hindsight) claims like the blue read on Stutters and going overly defensive.

Calix
Pretty much started the Stutters-read pressure on Lunatic and participated in forming his lynch wagon. Kind of similar to DanelerH, hard to see scum doing that to each other from the start of the game.

Stutters
A more controversial pick for green color, perhaps, but I agree with whoever said that it would be extremely rare for scum to immediately throw a strong townread on their teammate like Lunatic did. It would only link them together in everyone's minds (something scum would definitely not want) and make the other look bad/scum if the other flips. In addition, it wouldn't come naturally as a careless throwaway comment like how Lunatic said it. It just fits so much better as a casual, too strong townread on someone he would know to be town in advance. Also, I have an interesting theory related to Stutters, but that's best left for later.

Rels
Jumped on the Lunatic wagon pretty early and questioned his read on Stutters earlier on, but nothing truly conclusive. Town lean?

- - - - - - (the point after which I can see these people being scum with Lunatic to some meaningful extent)

SEQ/Tictock
Voted for Lunatic, but otherwise ???

Jealous
Hard to say. Had Lunatic as a lynch candidate / scum for most of D1, but nothing exactly conclusive to their relations happened.

scott
Can't say I agree with ptmc's assessment about how weirdly he interacted with Lunatic. His posts almost mirror my thoughts at the time of their writing (even regarding Stutters and DanelerH)... but it's true that he was pretty "on the fence" about lynching Lunatic or not during D1 so it's not too hard to see a Lunatic/scott team.

DYH
Passive towards Lunatic and the whole D1 lynch in general. His Lunatic vote was pretty "resigned" and late as well. Could well be scum with Lunatic.

Skynx
Soft-defended Lunatic, ignored him or counter-pushed away from him on several occasions during D1 (see ptmc's eventlist for easy details, just search for "Skynx" lines in red text, or read his filter). Never pressured Lunatic or contributed to his lynch either (no, the one-liner "Lunatic had the worst intro post I guess" didn't impact his own or anyone else's play during D1). A Lunatic/Skynx scumteam makes the most sense to me.

2) Sensible scumteams?

Now it's the time to check if any of the players who could be scum with Lunatic would fit as scum with each other.

Skynx/DYH?
Doesn't seem very likely. Skynx pushed DYH late during D1, and it would be pretty stupid to go through that trouble just to perhaps get a scum lynched instead of another scum. More sensible options would have been to bus Lunatic or to push a townie. I guess it could have been distancing, but that doesn't seem likely in that high-stakes situation.Verdict: NO

Skynx/scott?
Skynx soft-defends scott in a couple of his posts, otherwise nothing. scott barely mentions Skynx, but when he does, in a slightly positive light. This team could make sense. Verdict: YES

Skynx/Jealous?
Jealous doesn't really mention Skynx until very recently where he said that he "doesn't like Skynx but he's not necessarily scummy". Skynx doesn't really talk about Jealous at all. Verdict: YES

Skynx/SEQ/Tictock?
Not much, but Skynx congratulates SEQ for questioning Lunatic... And Tictock calls Skynx town for "pressuring Lunatic"??? In reality, it was the opposite situation, just read Skynx's filter or ptmc's summary. Not really sure if scum would so blatantly prop up another, but something is off. Verdict: YES

DYH/scott?
Not completely sure about this one, but I guess they do fit somehow. scott agrees that DYH is scummy, but not much beyond that.... They also have a weird interaction where they start to "chat" with each other, but nothing happens? Verdict: YES

DYH/Jealous?
Not likely. DYH has pressured/scumread Jealous on several occasions and similarly Jealous has been scumreading DYH. A double bus in this game state is a bit too unlikely... Verdict: NO

DYH/SEQ/Tictock?
DYH defended SEQ somewhat, but Tictock has been quite anti-DYH. Could be bussing, I guess, but hard to say. Verdict: ?

scott/Jealous?
scott scumread Jealous D1, but townread him after the Lunatic lynch since Jealous "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". Jealous put scott as a lynch candidate after Lunatic was lynched. Overall, uncertain for now. Verdict: ?

scott/SEQ/Tictock?
Kind of like with Jealous, scott first (slightly) scumreads SEQ and townreads him after Lunatic was lynched since he "never wavered on lynching Lunatic". SEQ never mentions scott. Tictock calls scott "prob town but kinda null". I guess this scumteam could work... Verdict: YES

Jealous/SEQ/Tictock?
SEQ townreads Jealous early on, later on unsure. Tictock calls Jealous null. Jealous doesn't really voice an opinion on SEQ/Tictock. Verdict: YES

If I missed something, please point it out. This has been a ton of work and there's probably a mistake somewhere at this point.

In any case, it's time for the conclusions based on earlier stuffs. Here are the sensible possible scumteams that are left now:

Skynx/scott
Skynx/Jealous
Skynx/Tictock
DYH/scott
scott/Tictock
Jealous/Tictock

Frankly, I'm not too confident that DYH is scum based on this. He would almost have to be scum with scott. Meanwhile Skynx could basically be scum with anyone besides DYH. scott isn't very limited either, but I like him better than either Skynx or DYH.

Well, I'd be glad to hear other opinions on these findings.

Some of these are some crack smoking teams -

I'm town so a lot of them are crack but -

DYH/me - so I push my other teammate in n1/d2 and lay a vote on him at the beginning of d2 and have others hop on it, so I'm all by myself for 3-4 mislynches. Yeah that'll work

Me/TT - so SEQ/TT starts the train on his teammate, and then when TT replaces in, he's got legitimate thoughts and we mindmeld together because we are mafia together? mmhmmm

I think this is quite a bit of stretch and what you are throwing out, to be honest. It's why I asked you who your two scummates are. Now it looks like you are throwing shit to see what sticks.

Not good.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 29 2016 03:48 GMT

#1050

Well that sucks.

Don't think I'll say much until EoD

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 29 2016 21:59 GMT

#1076

Last Will and Reads in order

4) ptmc - This guy has his spurts - but he craps out analysis quite well. I have very little doubt this guy is town.

6) Tictock - We have a lot of ideas we sync on - his replacement was the first on LunaticMan.

1) Calix - I really think this guy is town, but he has a change from his last game that had no suspicions at all. He's giving real thoughts and contributing to the game. If he doesn't die d4/d5/etc I'd get really worried why he's alive.

2) Rels - His push on Luna - this feels like helpful, progressing the game Rels, not the scummy Rels.

3) Skynx - He's trying really hard to pocket me or he's town and others are looking to mislynch him. I think he's town though and not trying some stray idea. But in the tinfoil "Game can't be this easy" strat, he's my #2 tinfoil mafia.

5) Jealous - Like his last wall of texts show he's looking into the game, looking for holes and possibilities.

3) DanelerH- After re-reading his filter there's not a whole lot there. One page - and two okay posts. He has some scumreads, which is good, but I want to see where he goes with these. He goes after Luna at the beginning when there was little pressure to do so.

1) Stutters695 - Luna/d1 interactions - he really shit the bed day 2 though. If he doesn't step it up today, he's gone.

4) Xatalos - Guy is pretty defensive, doesn't like to give up information unless forced (Don't give town a damn thing style) - and feel like he's trying to mislynch Skynx, since I'm either being really pocketed or he's town. He also in his "scum team" and other posts seem to leave me as low hanging fruit.

I feel Xata is mafia, and there's a vet that knows Superbia that killed him when he was scumming me, and not nearly as helpful as the three up above (or the blue read) Hopefully this kill will shine some more light.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 29 2016 22:02 GMT

#1079

A'ight. What do you think TT? Put some pressure on Xata? Wait for stutters to shit out some info? What do you think?

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 29 2016 22:03 GMT

#1080

Also if there's a cop - remember there's a miller and a godfather, your checks can mean nothing.

scott31337

United States2979 Posts

September 30 2016 00:14 GMT

#1086

On September 30 2016 08:58 DanelerH wrote:
Scott, I have a couple of questions for you:

Show nested quote +

This was in response to the Superbia kill. What do you think the Mafia was dodging?

Show nested quote +

What was the note you were keeping to yourself?

The medic. They were dodging the medic (if one exists). A vigi would've shot by now.

The note was that this the last post DYH could make a blue claim and I would believe it. If he would have made it afterwards, it was past the point of no return and I wouldn't buy the claim. He had enough pressure and was early enough. That obviously didn't turn out though.

Prev 1 2 3 Next All

Please or register to reply.

Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 2

Completed

Ongoing

Upcoming