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I am buried at work today, and I will do my best.
Kitaman I have several problems with your reads, but I will take the time to literally pull stuff from the top to the bottom of your filter. Offhand:
(1) the read of Stutters for one, he did shit all other than a read on GB, so how does a lurky player as both alignments make it to your 99% don't lynch list
(2) I am sure I called you out on this before but if I didn't I'll bring it up again, you kept suspecting Lunaticman for role reads earlier on, why did you discount the fact he was new to themed games and didn't know any better? (or pull the relevant quote if you answered this and I missed it)
There were a few others but I literally have to be able to sit down and pull through your filter, yes everyone was wrong, but it's an issue of how and why.
Separately Stutters completely ignoring disformation's wall on Kita and responding to Kitaman the way he did indicates a Kita/Stutters team, even if loosely (posts were 15m apart, not like seconds):
+ Show Spoiler +On August 25 2016 01:12 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2016 22:54 kitaman27 wrote:
Reading through some of those flips, I'm kinda paranoid that they could be fake or altered. There are three different occasions where one of the players that flipped town have role descriptions that don't match the powers that they claimed. I'm not saying that all 5 players that flipped were mafia, but it's possible mafia may have had the ability to mess with the flips and possibly the alignments as a counter to us being able to lynch a bunch of people last cycle. I guess they might have been powers related to secondary objectives or something, but mine don't work that way.
-Artanis stole superbia's legs on day one using the ##help command. Superbia confirmed that it was a real power. It couldn't have been his thesis power since he wouldn't receive that until night 1. Not mentioned in role PM.
-GlowingBear received the NSA for getting elected. He said it was part of his role when I questioned him since the Patriot Act was his election reward. Not mentioned in role PM.
-prpl claimed two vig shots prior to dying. Not mentioned in role PM.
I'll try to re-read the filters of everyone tonight. I have a hard time believing HTS, disfo, or koshi are mafia even after a bunch of town deaths, but I'll try re-evaluating to see if there was something I overlooked. There are a couple players who have gone the entire game without even calling any player scum or using their role in any way that helps town, so those players are probably the most likely mafia candidates at this point.
I agree they probably have some janitor-esque role, but there is certainly no way it was that many of them. With how much of this is played behind the scenes, you can't really tell. I still have GBs berth birth certificate, and no one else has had items appear when they flip so it could be explained like that. My role also has a post-death power that gets substantially weaker if it's mechanics are known, so I assume that would be left out of my flip if I die. Although I'm hoping this is just a really bastardized game that has no scum because the world is supposed to end. That would be amazing.
Another thing pointing to you is Vivax's scumreading of you and he winds up dead end of day 1, mind you that fell off some but it can't be ignored.
Show nested quote +On August 16 2016 23:02 Vivax wrote:I didn't like that Vivax went out of his way to disagree with my voting plan when there really isn't a downside to the extra information, even if it doesn't pan out in the end. He never explained why it was too complex when asked. Your plan is pointless, everyone can lie about their nationality, we will never discover the motivations for why someone would lie until we see flips from either them or the presidents. Also, kita please. Here's the post that's replying directly to you. On August 16 2016 09:16 Vivax wrote:On August 16 2016 09:11 kitaman27 wrote:On August 16 2016 09:06 Vivax wrote:On August 16 2016 09:03 kitaman27 wrote:On August 16 2016 08:57 Vivax wrote:
What I find interesting so far is that 2 people applied for American presidence but not for the soviet unions. Any reason ? In Soviet Russia, President elect you! Since the voting is private, it probably makes sense to cast your votes in the thread and then if the counts differ from the actual result, it could help narrow down who lied. I think that's too complex especially with this amount of players. Also really only viable if you know the presidents alignments right after the election. Not really though. Say two people pledge their vote to grack. Then we find out grack received 1 vote. We'd essentially know that 1 out of 2 players was lying at that point. It doesn't matter what gracks alignment is. Plus it's not like people aren't going to share who they want to elect as mayor. Shouldn't be too hard to keep track. We don't have lynches so that's really the only alignment indicative thing we've got. Gracks alignment would tell us why they lied (so it's relevant imo), and then both of them are going to say that they told the truth. Also they would need a reason to lie in before hand and that reason is hidden within the candidates alignments or the voters win conditions. Show nested quote +On August 16 2016 23:11 Vivax wrote:
List post time:
3p: TW
Scummy: 1gu, GB, disfo, (kita)
Likely town: Iampurrfection, superbia.
Lock town: Koshi, HTS
Rest still on the fence. Show nested quote +On August 17 2016 07:43 Vivax wrote:On August 17 2016 07:43 kitaman27 wrote:
lol those results XD
Makes sense to compile an american vote count for the sake of knowing what we are dealing with.
GB and chez should be as transparent as possible with their powers.....assuming they received any. I now think you're scum too. Show nested quote +On August 17 2016 07:48 Vivax wrote:
Kita is scummy for post timing btw. He just seems very detached from the rest that's going on and then pops in right after the election to only comment on the election and giving generic advice that the leaders have to be transparent.
(Mind you, Vivax's death could also point to FF or SL if you are town but for other reasons less likely on SL.)
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I do agree that what Koshi did doesnt' make sense either. Given that he expressed dobut about his ability once the last day cycle ended he'd have at least given some thought prior to using the Zeus ability.
It was anti-town, it's only an issue of whether his alignment was actually changed, his role was "sabotaged" to the risk of death if he disclosed anything else or played a different way, or whether he was made third party.
In any case, I'd rather go after Damdred. That should be open and shut at this point.
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Also regarding my abilities the only active was the banana-based kp, and my ability to convert extreme to moderates.
I also had immunity to projectile attacks.
At no point did I ever own a zombie army though, so I'm not sure how Koshi arrived to that.
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On August 25 2016 23:43 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Koshi is scum for shooting disinformation, there's no two ways about.
Not necessarily. It's possible but not the only option.
Anti-town absolutely, but mechanically anything could have happened that could have resulted in this.
My gut is saying third party, and he might need everyone to bow to him to satisfy wincon but that's complete speculation on my end.
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Also Koshi voted Damdred almost immediately after I did.
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On August 25 2016 22:37 kitaman27 wrote:HTS here is my biggest problem with your Trfel analysis. Show nested quote +On August 18 2016 07:59 ritoky wrote:
Breaking News: Unpatriotic Man Being Chased Through Ikea On August 18th, Trfel learns he is a dead man. His delayed death has activated and mafia apparently had no way to save him. Anything he posts in the next day, he is fully aware will be analyzed once he flips. That's the definition of WIFOM. To say that he is trying to keep his options open isn't all that relevant when he is already dead. There is no consequence for him going after whoever he chooses because it's not like he could die a second time. In fact, any kp that are directed at him would actually be beneficial for mafia. There was one point that I do think could have some worth though and that was the argument that Trfel likes to keep his scum buddies out of the spotlight. If he knows he is a dead man, then taking the attention away from his buddies would be a good strategy. I'll have to check out if there are any specific points where Trfel had an easy opportunity to push a specific player who was under heat at the time, but choose to ignore them or go elsewhere. [/center]
I also made the wifom disclaimer in my post I'm pretty sure, I focused more on the how of Trfel's reads, in any case prior to the Ikea announcement he scumread Artanis, Onegu and wanted Shapelog dead, in another post I called him out for and that was about it.
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On August 25 2016 10:29 Tumblewood wrote:I basically can't do anything at this point. I made four posts instead of 3 during the night which pissed off Palmar so now I'm a VT with 20 million dollars in debt. good luck town. + Show Spoiler [insider info] + I had a dream last night where Hts and disfo were scum and both scum slipped and I had access to their qt. watch out for them
Tinfoil aside is there any reason you can't vote? That's the impression I'm getting.
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On August 25 2016 08:52 sicklucker wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2016 08:01 Half the Sky wrote:
sicklucker also everyone got old, so you don't have a shot. We have to unify and lynch someone traditionally. no i still have a shot...
On August 25 2016 08:57 sicklucker wrote:
so if i shoot dandred we find 1 scum 100% of the time becuase if hes town stutters is mafia
On August 25 2016 08:58 sicklucker wrote:
vice versa. so we should probably decide on one of them
How are you sure they both aren't mafia and Damdred isn't trying to buy some sort of time disposing a very afk teammate?
Or are you suggesting we lynch one of them and you shoot the other?
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Alright, I'm preoccupied for the next hour but I am concerned about a few things.
Koshi has been acting anti-town for this cycle. There are 3 theoretical reasons why.
Could he be (default or converted) mafia? Absolutely. Could he be default or converted third party? Absolutely.
Defaulting to him however is a cop-out as far as I'm concerned. There were and still are at least two other if not three other mafia that are just coasting right now. It could be any in the line of Kurumi, Luna, Fecalfeast, Stutters or Kitaman as I suspect is the active mafia. Kitaman as mafia plays a clean mafia game, which is quite easy to do when there are a shittonne of scummy/inactive townies. And mafia like those are very hard to put together a good case against.
I've mentioned several points about a Kita/Stutters team and ignoring anyone but Koshi is a red flag.
Stutters says just now he's "been following along" but provides zero in the way of reads or suggestions.
Stutters also ignored disformation's post.
sicklucker - Stutter's role PM, could have been true AND HE STILL IS LIKELY MAFIA.
The only thing I have had to work with with Trfel's filter to some extent and I tried already parallelign that to Kita's earlier reads.
Vivax kill points to a range of Kita/Rels/FF/SL.
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My vote at this point in time is for Damdred and Stutters.
I agree that Koshi is anti-town, but people aren't considering the why.
If someone wants to explain why Koshi was mafia BEFORE his behaviour changed drastically that's fine. But that's a different argument.
I'll be back in one hour.
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On August 26 2016 02:27 Stutters695 wrote:
Damdred and Koshi seem like the correct play here
On August 26 2016 02:33 kitaman27 wrote:
damdred and koshi are the only two people worth considering here.
The "only" two Kitaman?
What about Rels (from your end) whom you've been all over, all game?
You realise we're dealing with a 5-player mafia team? Who are the rest?
And what else about that Trfel filter? Where did it lead you?
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then...
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MZ, I have voted Damdred already, unless you are saying Stutters is more probable than Damdred.
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But I think they are both scum.
My mafia team: kitaman/Trfel/Damdred/Stutters/+1 (Rels???????)
That's where I am now.
Koshi is probably not mafia for two reasons: he voted Damdred right after me and BEFORE his claim and second his post re: Rels just now.
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I don't think we'll win but I am just doing this for post-game cred. If I was wrong, I was wrong.
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sicklucker are you here? Please read pages 196-98, you need to shoot Stutters.
If you aren't comfortable on Kitaman, that's fine but at least shoot Stutters.
There are two reasons to NOT shoot Koshi. If you disagree tell us why.
I think we're in a position where we need two mafia dead, and killing mafia and third party will lose us the game.
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On August 26 2016 05:41 Koshi wrote:
I shot disformation because he tried too hard and it was all in vain. I am not letting the guy break his head for another 48 hours.
......................................................
I am at a loss for words.
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On August 26 2016 05:42 Kurumi wrote:
So let me get this straight
we are not lynching Koshi because we believe he's unlynchable
instead we're trying to kill him through sl?
Am I the only one who would rather lynch Koshi and shoot damdred?
No. We are not touching Koshi. It is a cop-out.
It should be obvious who the mafia are if you read the last few pages.
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On August 26 2016 05:46 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2016 05:43 Half the Sky wrote:On August 26 2016 05:42 Kurumi wrote:
So let me get this straight
we are not lynching Koshi because we believe he's unlynchable
instead we're trying to kill him through sl?
Am I the only one who would rather lynch Koshi and shoot damdred? No. We are not touching Koshi. It is a cop-out. It should be obvious who the mafia are if you read the last few pages. so a third party koshi shoots disformation who was not up to lynch, got and item yesterday, claimed KP reason being? he knew he's going to get lynched, i guess the mafia team decided to sacrifice himdamdred set up himself like a lamb for slaughter and everyone is just eating it up, it looks obvious enough for me that koshi is less of an asset to mafia team than damdred whats the reason? no idea
This part makes zero sense because he had zero to negative chance of getting lynched at any point before he shot disformation.
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On August 26 2016 05:45 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2016 05:43 Half the Sky wrote:On August 26 2016 05:42 Kurumi wrote:
So let me get this straight
we are not lynching Koshi because we believe he's unlynchable
instead we're trying to kill him through sl?
Am I the only one who would rather lynch Koshi and shoot damdred? No. We are not touching Koshi. It is a cop-out. It should be obvious who the mafia are if you read the last few pages. Btw HtS if you really are scum wp, in that case I apologize to prplhz for not looking closer at you the second time around. 15 mins until flip right?
1h15.....that's 1800 for us east people I think.
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On August 26 2016 05:48 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2016 05:47 Half the Sky wrote:On August 26 2016 05:46 Kurumi wrote:On August 26 2016 05:43 Half the Sky wrote:On August 26 2016 05:42 Kurumi wrote:
So let me get this straight
we are not lynching Koshi because we believe he's unlynchable
instead we're trying to kill him through sl?
Am I the only one who would rather lynch Koshi and shoot damdred? No. We are not touching Koshi. It is a cop-out. It should be obvious who the mafia are if you read the last few pages. so a third party koshi shoots disformation who was not up to lynch, got and item yesterday, claimed KP reason being? he knew he's going to get lynched, i guess the mafia team decided to sacrifice himdamdred set up himself like a lamb for slaughter and everyone is just eating it up, it looks obvious enough for me that koshi is less of an asset to mafia team than damdred whats the reason? no idea This part makes zero sense because he had zero to negative chance of getting lynched at any point before he shot disformation. after shooting disformation
I don't understand the rationale because if Koshi was mafia he wouldn't draw attention to himself like that by shooting the most obvious townie in the game.
If you have a meta based argument against that, I'm all ears.
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EPT
