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Newbie Student Mafia XXII - Page 52

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-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 21:07 GMT
#1021
Er...yeah. Lunatic is 100% scum here. Under every circumstance.

Like...he is literally scum.Outright. There's nobody scummier in this game than Lunatic because he's pretty much scumclaimed with that counter-claim and the flip.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 22:59 GMT
#1022
Ok, so this is basically my big nightpost. I'm pretty sure that rels is gonna get shot, but on the off chance it is me I want to get this all out here. First of all, I am almost certain that both scott and btdt are town. The reason is first that lunatic voted for scott, which basically clears him or atleast gives him a huge town point. On btdt, he voted for Lunatic when the wagon was still early. At that point only 2 people had voted for lunatic. Obv mafia didn't want to kill on of their own if they can help it, which is why I really think he is town. His recent posting and his defense and his determination to go after lunatic should also speak volumes about this. So in short, scott and btdt are town.

Second, I believe the lynch on D4 (D3 lynch will be lunatic no matter what) should be MoosyDoosy. First, he has absolutely nothing in terms of scum hunting. Most of his filter is filled with nothing of value at all. I honestly thought he was joking when he said he was the "sane Moosy". His D2 voting was really suspect as well. His timing was just too good. 30 min before deadline, just when we needed one more vote he shows up and changes vote to someone he town/null read on N1? Also, his whole voting pattern was really stupid, and he still thinks of it as a good thing. The only thing he did was set 2 townies up for mislynch, and if grack hadn't died he would probably have succeded. But tbh, this post isn't about him, if you want more I wrote about Moosy in my N1 post.

Ok, so the main reason I post this is something some of you may not like, and will probably call me tinfoil for saying it. But it needs to be said. First, let me say that I have had suspicoin of this since N1, but have kept silent about it since I was more focused on lunatic at the time and couldn't afford to derail that. I have 3 people in my scumlist in descending order of "scuminess". Lunatic, Moosy and Celestial. The thing that drew me to celestial at first was the fact that he survived N1. It was so strange to be honest. If you compare Stutters and Celestial, he was the obvious person to kill, not stutters. The only reason I can see that stutters was killed was to cast suspicon on the people who were against him. This was primarily me and grack as well I think. The plan obviosly failed when Grac was killed as well, but before that mafia set things up in preparation for stutters death. First, Moosy along with Celestial pulled up that bullshit VCA. Moosy seems like he would go for that sort of thing, but celestial suprised me by actually saying he liked it. What's more, he completely ignored the explanations we had that supported our views, even when it was stutters saying them. Celestial has made the biggest posts with the most analysis, but he barely even bothered to even think about the voting pattern more than a passing "eh, seems alright".


On August 03 2016 07:58 -Celestial- wrote:


Lunaticman - Stuff early on seemed pretty town-based. He was doing the right things and didn't do anything that raised any series red flags. I didn't like the fawning over me too much to be honest. Felt like he was trying to buddy up and pocket me but eh. I feel like the push to lynch Rels whilst he was inactive was a total waste but based on the comment about how Rels dodged five town lynches by being inactive in a previous game its forgivable; and I don't think someone wanting to look to lynch inactive mafia is unreasonable given how horribly inactive this game was for a long time. I wasn't entirely on board with his feelings about RB and scott but I do understand where his opinion is coming from so that's alright. Voting Rels is NAI at that point. Post-flip list is alright (though I'm really never a fan of people including themselves in lists of town aligned people; anyone can do it and it comes across to me as a blatant attempt at a psychological manipulation tactic of "doesn't my name look good next to these townies?") but nothing special. I'm still not liking his feeling on Scott though. The stuff with Grac and Rels is alright; I don't think there absolutely HAS to be mafia between Rels/Grac but there almost certainly is. I disagree with his latest point on Rels, in fact I think the way Rels went about it (i.e. completely full-on) is one of the few saving graces for Rels.
Townlean.


Okay done. Just in time before the deadline.


He also had a strong townlean on lunatic for no apparent reason. He did a filterdive of lunatic same time as me, and mentions some the things we now know makes lunatic scum. But he not only ignores some of those, he even makes excuses for them. Worse, he misses some of the huge red flags in lunatics filter, even though it was probably the shortest filter with the most scummy things. And then, when me and 3 others vote for lunatic he comes in and changes his mind? I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. We know mafia tried to bus Lunatic when it looked like he was dying.

Also, in the same big post as quted above, he has the now confirmed townies (Rels, Grack, Kelsier, Silent) as mafia reads, while the ones that are more questionable much higher up. The only townie he has in town is stutters. But thing is, mafia knew he was gonna die that night, so ofcourse he was gonna be high on the list.

I know most of you all see him as town, and it's no doubt that he has posted the most. But I just want to make sure we consider everything. I might be wrong on celestial, and I certainly won't lynch him before Moosy and Lunatic, but I would definetly consider it.
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
August 05 2016 23:00 GMT
#1023
Stop posting Please
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
Shapelog
Profile Joined November 2015
United States5185 Posts
August 05 2016 23:05 GMT
#1024
Day 3




Rels, The Onedia "Escort", Has been killed!

Day 3 has begun. Voting must be done in a separate thread located here: Link

The deadline is Sunday, Aug 07 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have to vote!
"Subsequently clicking post is like launching a doomsday's worth of nukes' equivalent in dopamine." -RB
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:18 GMT
#1025
@silent: I would prefer you to lynch me before Moosy if you're going to to go through on that.

Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that.

In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:20 GMT
#1026
Like seriously, I'd prefer to you to mislynch me earlier rather than in a MYLO because I can't defend against against a mass push by you and probably a couple mafia in MYLO with questionable internet from my phone.

If I have to die, please make it D4.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:25 GMT
#1027
NB: My townflip if and when it comes will not necessarily confirm Moosy as town, however.

Its just I'd rather not end up in a situation where Moosy were to flip town and people want to lynch me then, because we just lose and I won't be able to struggle against the loss.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 23:26 GMT
#1028
On August 06 2016 08:18 -Celestial- wrote:
@silent: I would prefer you to lynch me before Moosy if you're going to to go through on that.

Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that.

In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate.


Right now Moosy is looking a lot more scummier than you are. So I'm going to push who I think is most scummy. But nothing is set in stone, D4 is a long way off, as is D5.
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:26 GMT
#1029
Although if Moosy flips scum I'm cool with dying D5. That's fine too. Just for god's sake don't take me as your top scum into MYLO. Lynch me BEFORE then please.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:28 GMT
#1030
On August 06 2016 08:26 silentwarrior wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2016 08:18 -Celestial- wrote:
@silent: I would prefer you to lynch me before Moosy if you're going to to go through on that.

Why? Because if Moosy were to flip town (which I'm eh on, but lets run with that) and you continue to push through on the lynch on me then I'd HAVE to defend myself because I think we'd be in MYLO and so town would lose if I flip town (which I will, but I'd say that as either alignment). I absolutely will not have the time or be able to do that to any great extent; I'll be on a bit, but not enough to defend in a MYLO situation. So town is guaranteed to lose under those circumstances. I'd like to avoid that.

In contrast I don't actually have to defend myself if you decide to push me before then because we can afford one more mislynch. I might or might not, I dunno at the moment I'm really tired of this game honestly. Though it'll be a shame to lose my 100% survival rate.


Right now Moosy is looking a lot more scummier than you are. So I'm going to push who I think is most scummy. But nothing is set in stone, D4 is a long way off, as is D5.



I know that. But the problem with that is...well, if Moosy flips town, who would you push after that?

Because if its still me then please for the love of god lynch me FIRST or I literally physically won't be able to try to stop the endgame win for mafia.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:30 GMT
#1031
However if you were to get your way Moosy flips scum and you want to lynch me after that I literally won't even fight it because it'd be difficult for me to do so from a phone with dodgy internet and we'll still have the one mislynch to play with. So town still has a chance of winning.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:40 GMT
#1032
Guess I should probably address your points but I kinda feel I'm being tunneled so its unlikely I'll get believed.

The thing that drew me to celestial at first was the fact that he survived N1. It was so strange to be honest. If you compare Stutters and Celestial, he was the obvious person to kill, not stutters.


Agreed. No idea why I didn't die. Hence why I posted a legacy post.


First, Moosy along with Celestial pulled up that bullshit VCA. Moosy seems like he would go for that sort of thing, but celestial suprised me by actually saying he liked it. What's more, he completely ignored the explanations we had that supported our views, even when it was stutters saying them. Celestial has made the biggest posts with the most analysis, but he barely even bothered to even think about the voting pattern more than a passing "eh, seems alright".


Wasn't BS. The points against you and Grack went beyond that VCA which I've been saying literally all along but you and Grack keep and kept dragging it to "only be the VCA". The vote count stuff was only part of the case. But it was a nice neat little point.


He also had a strong townlean on lunatic for no apparent reason. He did a filterdive of lunatic same time as me, and mentions some the things we now know makes lunatic scum. But he not only ignores some of those, he even makes excuses for them. Worse, he misses some of the huge red flags in lunatics filter, even though it was probably the shortest filter with the most scummy things.


Such as? Also I think scott's filter was probably still the shortest.


[quote]And then, when me and 3 others vote for lunatic he comes in and changes his mind? I'm sorry, I just don't believe that. We know mafia tried to bus Lunatic when it looked like he was dying.

You don't have to believe it. But when there's only one wagon that late in the day I'm inclined to believe that it means that mafia don't care whether that person lives or dies.


[quote]Also, in the same big post as quted above, he has the now confirmed townies (Rels, Grack, Kelsier, Silent) as mafia reads, while the ones that are more questionable much higher up. The only townie he has in town is stutters. But thing is, mafia knew he was gonna die that night, so ofcourse he was gonna be high on the list. [/quote]

Yeah, because Grack was scummy as hell, Rels had just led a mislynch and Kelsier had done JACK ALL.

And Stutters was townie literally because we had been simultaneously questioning the mderg wagon as being crap on D1. I was never lynching him after that.



Whatever. Believe what you want. But DO NOT TAKE ME INTO MYLO ON D5 AS YOUR TOP SCUM READ BECAUSE TOWN WILL LOSE. PLEASE BELIEVE THIS. IF YOU THINK I'M SCUM KILL ME D4 AT THE LATEST.

If its not MYLO D5 then go ahead and lynch me then if you must. Since I'll be on holiday and it'll free me up from having to check in.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:41 GMT
#1033
I screwed up my tags.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:42 GMT
#1034
Hell I'd say kill me today but we absolutely need to lynch Lunatic today so...
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:48 GMT
#1035
BTW: Just a note to everyone - if silent gets his way and flips Moosy D4 and Moosy flips town and then silent continues to push on me anyway then he's most likely scum; because that's a game-ending scenario which I've already warned about and offered to be lynched earlier so you have my flip information in order to avoid it coming about.

Calling it now. Please do not forget this post.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 05 2016 23:50 GMT
#1036
I am legitimately terrified here of a scenario in which someone gets lynched D4, turns out to be town, and I'm top scum D5. Because we just lose the game straight up.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
silentwarrior
Profile Joined July 2015
131 Posts
August 05 2016 23:56 GMT
#1037
On August 06 2016 08:50 -Celestial- wrote:
I am legitimately terrified here of a scenario in which someone gets lynched D4, turns out to be town, and I'm top scum D5. Because we just lose the game straight up.


If I haven't counted wrong, it should be like this if we mislynch D4
D3: 5 town/3 mafia
N3: 5/2
D4: 4/2
N4: 3/2
D5: 2/2

Which means we won't even be in D5 if we lynch moosy D4 and he flips town.
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 06 2016 00:11 GMT
#1038
On August 06 2016 08:56 silentwarrior wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 06 2016 08:50 -Celestial- wrote:
I am legitimately terrified here of a scenario in which someone gets lynched D4, turns out to be town, and I'm top scum D5. Because we just lose the game straight up.


If I haven't counted wrong, it should be like this if we mislynch D4
D3: 5 town/3 mafia
N3: 5/2
D4: 4/2
N4: 3/2
D5: 2/2

Which means we won't even be in D5 if we lynch moosy D4 and he flips town.


Damn I forgot about the N3 kill when I was checking it over. I had us at 5/2 on D4. Yeah I think you're right, we mislynch now we lose. Even if we hit mafia D4 we're still 3/1 on D5 which means lose D6.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 06 2016 00:13 GMT
#1039
EBWOP (hit submit rather than preview): Lose D6 if we get a mislynch.

Which means I can't afford to just take the mislynch on myself for the info flip.

This really, really sucks.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
August 06 2016 00:20 GMT
#1040
Tbh we probably just lose this game. There's a lot of unknowns right now and we can't afford another mistake, even if we've got the time to try to work it out. But we still have to try.

With your pathway, silent, if we follow it then we lynch Moosy D4. If he flips scum, so we don't immediately lose, I can't defend myself properly D5 (traveling and then in a place with poor internet and only with my phone for D5) so we lose right there instead.

I know you're saying "its a long way off and you're less scummy" but you need to ask me questions to confirm or deny that I'm town during D3 and D4 (i.e. RIGHT NOW) and get me confirmed in your mind by D5; or we just lose D5 in literally the worst way possible.
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
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